Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

A Climatological Baseline for Assessing the Skill of Tropical Cyclone Phase Forecasts

Sim D. Aberson NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida

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Print Publication:
01 Feb 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00130.1
Page(s):
122–129
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Abstract

A simple linear discriminant analysis scheme using climatological predictors is derived for the Atlantic basin as a no-skill baseline for operational phase forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The model with independent data correctly classifies 80% of the cases at 12 h, and this value decreases to about 45% by 60 h, remaining steady thereafter. Using the same cases, NHC-issued phase predictions were more frequently accurate than the baseline, so their forecasts are said to have skill.

Corresponding author address: Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, 4301 Rickenbacker Cswy., Miami, FL 33149. E-mail: sim.aberson@noaa.gov

Abstract

A simple linear discriminant analysis scheme using climatological predictors is derived for the Atlantic basin as a no-skill baseline for operational phase forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The model with independent data correctly classifies 80% of the cases at 12 h, and this value decreases to about 45% by 60 h, remaining steady thereafter. Using the same cases, NHC-issued phase predictions were more frequently accurate than the baseline, so their forecasts are said to have skill.

Corresponding author address: Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, 4301 Rickenbacker Cswy., Miami, FL 33149. E-mail: sim.aberson@noaa.gov
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