Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

The Validity of Dvorak Intensity Change Constraints for Tropical Cyclones

John P. Cangialosi NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Todd B. Kimberlain NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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John L. Beven II NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Mark Demaria NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Print Publication:
01 Aug 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0028.1
Page(s):
1010–1015
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Abstract

The Dvorak technique is used operationally worldwide for tropical cyclone intensity analysis. This study tests Dvorak intensity change constraints, using a database of simultaneous aircraft and satellite fixes for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the 1998–2012 period. Results indicate that, in the vast majority of cases, Dvorak intensity constraints are valid with only a small percentage of strengthening TCs violating the constraints. Of the small sample that broke the constraints, most had initial intensities ranging from moderately strong tropical storms to minimal hurricanes.

Corresponding author address: John P Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center, 11691 SW 17th St., Miami, FL 33165. E-mail: john.p.cangialosi@noaa.gov

Abstract

The Dvorak technique is used operationally worldwide for tropical cyclone intensity analysis. This study tests Dvorak intensity change constraints, using a database of simultaneous aircraft and satellite fixes for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the 1998–2012 period. Results indicate that, in the vast majority of cases, Dvorak intensity constraints are valid with only a small percentage of strengthening TCs violating the constraints. Of the small sample that broke the constraints, most had initial intensities ranging from moderately strong tropical storms to minimal hurricanes.

Corresponding author address: John P Cangialosi, National Hurricane Center, 11691 SW 17th St., Miami, FL 33165. E-mail: john.p.cangialosi@noaa.gov
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Weather and Forecasting

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