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Weighted Analog Technique for Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

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  • 1 Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City, Taiwan
  • | 2 Trauma, Health, Hazards Center, University of Colorado Colorado Springs, Colorado Springs, Colorado, and Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
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Abstract

A situation-dependent intensity and intensity spread prediction technique for the Atlantic called the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) is developed using the same procedures as for a similar technique for the western North Pacific that is operational at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. These simple techniques are based on rankings of the 10 best historical track analogs to match the official track forecast and current intensity. A key step is the development of a bias correction to eliminate an overforecast bias. The second key step is a calibration of the original intensity spread among the 10 analogs to achieve a probability of detection of about 68% at all forecast intervals, which it is proposed would be an appropriate intensity spread for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official intensity forecasts. The advantages of WAIA as an operational intensity forecast product for Atlantic tropical cyclones are described in terms of mean absolute errors, sample-mean biases, and geographic distributions of WAIA versus various guidance products available at NHC. Specific attention is given to the four guidance products that are included in the intensity consensus (ICON) technique that is the most skillful of all the products. Evidence is given that WAIA would be an independent, and more likely skillful at longer forecast intervals, technique to include in ICON. Consequently, WAIA would likely lead to improved NHC intensity forecasts at 4–5-day intervals.

Corresponding author address: R. L. Elsberry, Trauma, Health, Hazards Center, University of Colorado Colorado Springs, 1420 Austin Bluff, Colorado Springs, CO 80919. E-mail: elsberrylr@comcast.net

Abstract

A situation-dependent intensity and intensity spread prediction technique for the Atlantic called the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) is developed using the same procedures as for a similar technique for the western North Pacific that is operational at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. These simple techniques are based on rankings of the 10 best historical track analogs to match the official track forecast and current intensity. A key step is the development of a bias correction to eliminate an overforecast bias. The second key step is a calibration of the original intensity spread among the 10 analogs to achieve a probability of detection of about 68% at all forecast intervals, which it is proposed would be an appropriate intensity spread for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official intensity forecasts. The advantages of WAIA as an operational intensity forecast product for Atlantic tropical cyclones are described in terms of mean absolute errors, sample-mean biases, and geographic distributions of WAIA versus various guidance products available at NHC. Specific attention is given to the four guidance products that are included in the intensity consensus (ICON) technique that is the most skillful of all the products. Evidence is given that WAIA would be an independent, and more likely skillful at longer forecast intervals, technique to include in ICON. Consequently, WAIA would likely lead to improved NHC intensity forecasts at 4–5-day intervals.

Corresponding author address: R. L. Elsberry, Trauma, Health, Hazards Center, University of Colorado Colorado Springs, 1420 Austin Bluff, Colorado Springs, CO 80919. E-mail: elsberrylr@comcast.net
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