Cover Weather and Forecasting
Weather and Forecasting

  • Aoyama, M., Tsumune D. , and Hamajima Y. , 2012: Distribution of 137Cs and 134Cs in the North Pacific Ocean: Impacts of the TEPCO Fukushima–Daiichi NPP accident. J. Radioanal. Nucl. Chem., 296, 535–539, doi:10.1007/s10967-012-2033-2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Aoyama, M., Uematsu M. , Tsumune D. , and Hamajima Y. , 2013: Surface pathway of radioactive plume of TEPCO Fukushima NPP1 released 134Cs and 137Cs. Biogeosci. Discuss., 10, 265–283, doi:10.5194/bgd-10-265-2013.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Barron, C. N., Kara A. B. , Hurlburt H. E. , Rowley C. , and Smedstad L. F. , 2004: Sea surface height predictions from the Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model during 1998–2001. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 21, 1876–1893, doi:10.1175/JTECH-1680.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Behrens, E., Schwarzkopf F. U. , Lübbecke J. F. , and Böning C. W. , 2012: Model simulations on the long-term dispersal of 137Cs released into the Pacific Ocean off Fukushima. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 034004, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034004.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Bleck, R., 2002: An oceanic general circulation model framed in hybrid isopycnic Cartesian coordinates. Ocean Modell., 4, 55–88, doi:10.1016/S1463-5003(01)00012-9.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Buesseler, K., Aoyama M. , and Fukasawa M. , 2011: Impacts of the Fukushima nuclear power plants on marine radioactivity. Environ. Sci. Technol., 45, 9931–9935, doi:10.1021/es202816c.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Buesseler, K., and Coauthors, 2012: Fukushima-derived radionuclides in the ocean and biota off Japan. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 5984–5988, doi:10.1073/pnas.1120794109.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chassignet, E. P., Smith L. T. , Halliwell G. R. , and Bleck R. , 2003: North Atlantic simulations with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM): Impact of the vertical coordinate choice, reference pressure, and thermobaricity. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 33, 2504–2526, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2003)033<2504:NASWTH>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chassignet, E. P., and Coauthors, 2009: U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Oceanography, 22, 64–75, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2009.39.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Chino, M., Nakayama H. , Nagai H. , Terada H. , Katata G. , and Yamazawa H. , 2011: Preliminary estimation of release amounts of 131I and 137Cs accidentally discharged from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the atmosphere. J. Nucl. Sci. Technol., 48, 1129–1134, doi:10.1080/18811248.2011.9711799.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Cummings, J. A., 2005: Operational multivariate ocean data assimilation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3583–3604, doi:10.1256/qj.05.105.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Dietze, H., and Kriest I. , 2012: 137Cs off Fukushima Dai-ichi, Japan—Model based estimates of dilution and fate. Ocean Sci., 8, 319–332, doi:10.5194/os-8-319-2012.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Draxler, R. R., and Hess G. D. , 1998: An overview of the HYSPLIT_4 modelling system for trajectories, dispersion, and deposition. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 47, 295–308.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Draxler, R. R., and Coauthors, 2013: The World Meteorological Organization’s evaluation of meteorological analysis for the radionuclide dispersion and deposition from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. Report of the Third Meeting of WMO Task Team on Meteorological Analysis for Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident, Annex III, World Meteorological Organization, 65 pp. [Available online at http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/WMO_fnpp_final_AnnexIII_24Jan.pdf.]

  • Draxler, R. R., and Coauthors, 2014: World Meteorological Organization’s model simulations of the radionuclide dispersion and deposition from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident. J. Environ. Radioact., doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2013.09.014, in press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Estournel, C., and Coauthors, 2012: Assessment of the amount of cesium-137 released into the Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima accident and analysis of its dispersion in Japanese coastal waters. J. Geophys. Res., 117, C11014, doi:10.1029/2012JC007933.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Follows, M. J., and Marshall J. C. , 1994: Eddy driven exchange at ocean fronts. Ocean Modell., 102, 5–9.

  • Halliwell, G. R., 2004: Evaluation of vertical coordinate and vertical mixing algorithms in the HYbrid-Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Ocean Modell., 7, 285–322, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2003.10.002.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Haza, A. C., Özgökmen T. M. , Griffa A. , Garraffo Z. D. , and Peterbarg L. , 2012: Parameterization of particle transport at submesoscales in the Gulf Stream region using Lagrangian subgridscale models. Ocean Modell., 42, 31–49, doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2011.11.005.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Honda, M. C., and Coauthors, 2012: Dispersion of artificial caesium-134 and -137 in the western North Pacific one month after the Fukushima accident. Geochem. J., 46, e1–e9, doi:10.2343/geochemj.1.0152.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kamenik, J., Dulalova H. , Buesseler K. , Pike S. , and Št’atná K. , 2013: Cesium-134 and 137 activities in the central North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. Biogeosciences, 10, 6045–6052, doi:10.5194/bg-10-6045-2013.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kanda, J., 2013: Continuing 137Cs release to the sea from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant through 2012. Biogeosciences, 10, 6107–6113, doi:10.5194/bg-10-6107-2013.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kawabe, M., 1995: Variations in current path, velocity, and volume transport of the Kuroshio in relation with the large meander. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 25, 3103–3117, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<3103:VOCPVA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kawai, H., 1972: Hydrography of the Kuroshio Extension. Kuroshio—Its Physical Aspects, H. Stommel and K. Yoshida, Eds., University of Tokyo Press, 235–352.

  • Kawamura, H., Kobayashi T. , Furuno A. , In T. , Ishikawa Y. , Nakayama T. , Shima S. , and Awaji T. , 2011: Preliminary numerical experiments on oceanic dispersion of 131I and 137Cs discharged into the ocean because of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster. J. Nucl. Sci. Technol., 48, 1349–1356, doi:10.1080/18811248.2011.9711826.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Kleist, D. T., Parrish D. F. , Derber J. C. , Treadon R. , Wu W.-S. , and Lord S. , 2009: Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1691–1705, doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222201.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Large, W. G., McWilliams J. C. , and Doney S. C. , 1994: Oceanic vertical mixing: A review and a model with a nonlocal boundary layer parameterization. Rev. Geophys., 32, 363–403, doi:10.1029/94RG01872.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Lumpkin, R., and Garraffo Z. , 2005: Evaluating the decomposition of tropical Atlantic drifter observations. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 22, 1403–1415, doi:10.1175/JTECH1793.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Marshall, D., 1997: Subduction of water masses in an eddying ocean. J. Mar. Res., 55, 201–222, doi:10.1357/0022240973224373.

  • Masumoto, Y., and Coauthors, 2012: Oceanic dispersion simulations of 137Cs released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Elements, 8, 207–212, doi:10.2113/gselements.8.3.207.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mensa, J. A., Garraffo Z. , Griffa A. , Özgökmen T. M. , Haza A. , and Veneziani M. , 2013: Seasonality of the submesoscale dynamics in the Gulf Stream region. Ocean Dyn., 63, 923–941, doi:10.1007/s10236-013-0633-1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Mizuno, K., and White W. B. , 1983: Annual and interannual variability in the Kuroshio current system. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 13, 1847–1867, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1983)013<1847:AAIVIT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Morino, Y., Ohara T. , and Nishizawa M. , 2011: Atmospheric behavior, deposition, and budget of radioactive materials from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, doi:10.1029/2011GL048689.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Niiler, P. P., Maximenko N. A. , Panteleev G. G. , Yamagata T. , and Olson D. B. , 2003: Near-surface dynamical structure of the Kuroshio Extension. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3193, doi:10.1029/2002JC001461.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Oka, E., and Suga T. , 2005: Differential formation and circulation of North Pacific central mode water. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 35, 1997–2011, doi:10.1175/JPO2811.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Oka, E., and Qiu B. , 2012: Progress of North Pacific mode water research in the past decade. J. Oceanogr., 68, 5–20, doi:10.1007/s10872-011-0032-5.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Pollard, R. T., and Regier L. A. , 1992: Vorticity and vertical circulation at an ocean front. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 22, 609–625, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1992)022<0609:VAVCAA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Qiu, B., 2001: Kuroshio and Oyashio Currents. Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, J. Steele, Ed., Academic Press, 1413–1425.

  • Rossi, V., Sebille E. V. , Gupta A. S. , Garon V. , and England M. , 2013: Multi-decadal projections of surface and interior pathways of the Fukushima cesium-137 radioactive plume. Deep-Sea Res. I, 80, 37–46, doi:10.1016/j.dsr.2013.05.015.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Rypina, I. I., Jayne S. R. , Yoshida S. , Macdonald A. M. , Douglass E. , and Buesseler K. , 2013: Short-term dispersal of Fukushima-derived radionuclides off Japan: Modeling efforts and model–data intercomparison. Biogeosci. Discuss., 10, 1517–1550, doi:10.5194/bgd-10-1517-2013.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015–1057, doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Stohl, A., and Coauthors, 2012: Xenon-133 and caesium-137 releases into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant: Determination of the source term, atmospheric dispersion, and deposition. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2313–2343, doi:10.5194/acpd-11-28319-2011.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Suga, T., Motoki K. , Aoki Y. , and Macdonald A. , 2004: The North Pacific climatology of winter mixed layer and mode waters. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 3–22, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<0003:TNPCOW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Sun, S., Bleck R. , Rooth C. , Dukowicz J. , Chassignet E. , and Killworth P. , 1999: Inclusion of thermobaricity in isopycnic-coordinate ocean models. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 2719–2729, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1999)029<2719:IOTIIC>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Talley, L. D., 1993: Distribution and formation of North Pacific Intermediate Water. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23, 517–537, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1993)023<0517:DAFONP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Tolman, H. L., Garraffo Z. , Mehra A. , Rivin I. , and Spindler T. , 2013: Ocean plume and tracer modeling for the Fukushima Dai’ichi event: Particle tracking. MMAB/EMC/NOAA Tech. Note 309, 111 pp. [Available online at http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/mmab/papers/tn309/MMAB_309.pdf.]

  • Tsumune, D., Tsubono T. , Aoyama M. , and Hirose K. , 2012: Distribution of oceanic 137Cs from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant simulated numerically by a regional ocean model. J. Environ. Radioact., 111, 100–108, doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2011.10.007.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Tsumune, D., Tsubono T. , Aoyama M. , Uematsu M. , Musumi K. , Maeda Y. , Yoshida Y. , and Hayami H. , 2013: One-year, regional-scale simulation of 137Cs radioactivity in the ocean following the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Biogeosciences, 10, 5601–5617, doi:10.5194/bg-10-5601-2013.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yang, F., Pan H.-L. , Krueger S. K. , Moorthi S. , and Lord S. J. , 2006: Evaluation of the NCEP Global Forecast System at the ARM SGP site. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3668–3690, doi:10.1175/MWR3264.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yasuda, I., 2003: Hydrographic structure and variability in the Kuroshio–Oyashio transition area. J. Oceanogr., 59, 389–402, doi:10.1023/A:1025580313836.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • Yasuda, I., Okuda K. , and Shimizu Y. , 1996: Distribution and modification of North Pacific Intermediate Water in the Kuroshio–Oyashio interfrontal zone. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 26, 448–465, doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1996)026<0448:DAMONP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • You, Y., 2003: The pathway and circulation of North Pacific Intermediate Water. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30,2291, doi:10.1029/2003GL018561.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

  • You, Y., Suginohara N. , Fukasawa M. , Yoritaka H. , Mizuno K. , Kashino Y. , and Hartoyo D. , 2003: Transport of North Pacific Intermediate Water across Japanese WOCE sections. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 3196, doi:10.1029/2002JC001662.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 230 117 12
PDF Downloads 217 110 5

Modeling of 137Cs as a Tracer in a Regional Model for the Western Pacific, after the Fukushima–Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident of March 2011

Zulema D. Garraffo1, Hae-Cheol Kim1, Avichal Mehra2, Todd Spindler3, Ilya Rivin3, and Hendrik L. Tolman4
View More View Less
  • 1 NOAA/NCEP/IMSG/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, Maryland
  • | 2 NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, Maryland
  • | 3 NOAA/NCEP/IMSG/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, Maryland
  • | 4 NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, Maryland
Print Publication:
01 Apr 2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00101.1
Page(s):
553–579
© Get Permissions Rent on DeepDyve
Restricted access

Abstract

In this study, results are presented from the first operational ocean tracer dispersion model operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NWS/NCEP). This study addresses the dispersion of radionuclide contaminants after the Fukushima–Daiichi nuclear accident that was triggered by the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The tracer capabilities of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) were used in a regional domain for the northwestern Pacific, with nesting lateral boundary conditions using daily nowcast–forecast fields from the global operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS-Global), a ° HYCOM global forecast from NCEP, based on data-assimilative ° HYCOM Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) analyses from the Naval Research Laboratory/Naval Oceanographic Office (NRL/NAVOCEANO). This regional model, RTOFS Episodic Tracers for a region of the North West Pacific (RTOFS-ET_WPA), was in operation until the beginning of 2014, when the simulated 137Cs concentration was very close to the background level in the Pacific before the accident, which was about 2 Becquerel m−3 [Bq; 1 Becquerel = 1 (nuclear decay) s−1].

Corresponding author address: Zulema D. Garraffo, IMSG, NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, 5830 University Research Ct., College Park, MD 20740. E-mail: zulema.garraffo@noaa.gov

Abstract

In this study, results are presented from the first operational ocean tracer dispersion model operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NWS/NCEP). This study addresses the dispersion of radionuclide contaminants after the Fukushima–Daiichi nuclear accident that was triggered by the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The tracer capabilities of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) were used in a regional domain for the northwestern Pacific, with nesting lateral boundary conditions using daily nowcast–forecast fields from the global operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS-Global), a ° HYCOM global forecast from NCEP, based on data-assimilative ° HYCOM Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) analyses from the Naval Research Laboratory/Naval Oceanographic Office (NRL/NAVOCEANO). This regional model, RTOFS Episodic Tracers for a region of the North West Pacific (RTOFS-ET_WPA), was in operation until the beginning of 2014, when the simulated 137Cs concentration was very close to the background level in the Pacific before the accident, which was about 2 Becquerel m−3 [Bq; 1 Becquerel = 1 (nuclear decay) s−1].

Corresponding author address: Zulema D. Garraffo, IMSG, NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, 5830 University Research Ct., College Park, MD 20740. E-mail: zulema.garraffo@noaa.gov
Save