Bayesian Updating of Track-Forecast Uncertainty for Tropical Cyclones

Nam-Young Kang National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, South Korea

Search for other papers by Nam-Young Kang in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
Myeong-Soon Lim National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, South Korea

Search for other papers by Myeong-Soon Lim in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
,
James B. Elsner Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

Search for other papers by James B. Elsner in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
, and
Dong-Hyun Shin National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration, Jeju, South Korea

Search for other papers by Dong-Hyun Shin in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

The accuracy of track forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) is well studied, but less attention has been paid to the representation of track-forecast uncertainty. Here, Bayesian updating is employed on the radius of the 70% probability circle using 72-h operational forecasts with comparisons made to the classical approach based on the empirical cumulative density (ECD). Despite an intuitive and efficient way of treating track errors, the ECD approach is statistically less informative than Bayesian updating. Built on a solid statistical foundation, Bayesian updating is shown to be a useful technique that can serve as a substitute for the classical approach in representing operational TC track-forecast uncertainty.

Denotes Open Access content.

Corresponding author address: Nam-Young Kang, 2 Seosung 810-gil, Namwon, Seogwipo, Jeju 699-942, South Korea. E-mail: nkang.fsu@gmail.com

Abstract

The accuracy of track forecasts for tropical cyclones (TCs) is well studied, but less attention has been paid to the representation of track-forecast uncertainty. Here, Bayesian updating is employed on the radius of the 70% probability circle using 72-h operational forecasts with comparisons made to the classical approach based on the empirical cumulative density (ECD). Despite an intuitive and efficient way of treating track errors, the ECD approach is statistically less informative than Bayesian updating. Built on a solid statistical foundation, Bayesian updating is shown to be a useful technique that can serve as a substitute for the classical approach in representing operational TC track-forecast uncertainty.

Denotes Open Access content.

Corresponding author address: Nam-Young Kang, 2 Seosung 810-gil, Namwon, Seogwipo, Jeju 699-942, South Korea. E-mail: nkang.fsu@gmail.com
Save
  • Di Salvo, F., 2008: A characterization of the distribution of a weighted sum of gamma variables through multiple hypergeometric functions. Integr. Transforms Spec. Funct., 19, 563575, doi:10.1080/10652460802045258.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Elsner, J. B., and Bossak B. H. , 2001: Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate. J. Climate, 14, 43414350, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<4341:BAOUSH>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Elsner, J. B., and Jagger T. H. , 2004: A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling. J. Climate, 17, 28132827, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2813:AHBATS>2.0.CO;2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heming, J., and Goerss J. , 2010: Track and structure forecasts of tropical cyclones. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, J. C.-L. Chan and J. D. Kepert, Eds., World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate, Vol, 4, World Scientific, 287–323.

  • Hodges, R. E., Elsner J. B. , and Jagger T. H. , 2012: Predictive models for time to acceptance: An example using “hurricane” articles in AMS journals. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 879882, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00133.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Husak, G. J., Michaelsen J. , and Funk C. , 2007: Use of the gamma distribution to represent monthly rainfall in Africa for drought monitoring applications. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 935944, doi:10.1002/joc.1441.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kishimoto, K., 2010: JMA’s five-day tropical cyclone track forecast. RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Technical Review, No. 12, 55–63. [Available online at http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/techrev/text12-2.pdf.]

  • Mannoji, N., 2005: Reduction of the radius of probability circle in typhoon track forecast. RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Technical Review, No. 8, 1–9. [Available online at http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/techrev/text8-1.pdf.]

  • Mendelsohn, R., Emanuel K. , Chonabayashi S. , and Bakkensen L. , 2012: The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage. Nat. Climate Change, 2, 205209, doi:10.1038/nclimate1357.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pole, A., West M. , and Harrison J. , 1999: Applied Bayesian Forecasting and Time Series Analysis. Chapman and Hall, 409 pp.

  • Venables, W. N., and Ripley B. D. , 1999: Modern Applied Statistics with S-PLUS. Springer, 501 pp.

  • World Bank, 2010: Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 254 pp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 283 120 12
PDF Downloads 136 34 5