A LAMP–HRRR MELD for Improved Aviation Guidance

Bob Glahn Meteorological Development Laboratory, Office of Science and Technology Integration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Adam D. Schnapp Meteorological Development Laboratory, Office of Science and Technology Integration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Judy E. Ghirardelli Meteorological Development Laboratory, Office of Science and Technology Integration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Jung-Sun Im Meteorological Development Laboratory, Office of Science and Technology Integration, National Weather Service, Silver Spring, Maryland

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Abstract

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) forecasts of ceiling height, visibility, wind, and other weather elements of interest to the aviation community have been produced and put into the National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) since 2006. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is now producing explicit forecasts of ceiling height and visibility computed by algorithms based on variables directly forecasted by the HRRR. The Meteorological Development Laboratory has improved the LAMP ceiling and visibility forecasts by combining these two sources of information into a LAMP–HRRR MELD. The new forecasts show improvement over the original LAMP and particularly over the HRRR and persistence in terms of bias, threat score, and the Gerrity score. This paper explains how the MELD is produced and shows selected verification and example forecasts. A new guidance product based on this work will be made available to partners and customers.

For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (http://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy).

Corresponding author e-mail: Bob Glahn, harry.glahn@noaa.gov

Abstract

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) forecasts of ceiling height, visibility, wind, and other weather elements of interest to the aviation community have been produced and put into the National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) since 2006. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is now producing explicit forecasts of ceiling height and visibility computed by algorithms based on variables directly forecasted by the HRRR. The Meteorological Development Laboratory has improved the LAMP ceiling and visibility forecasts by combining these two sources of information into a LAMP–HRRR MELD. The new forecasts show improvement over the original LAMP and particularly over the HRRR and persistence in terms of bias, threat score, and the Gerrity score. This paper explains how the MELD is produced and shows selected verification and example forecasts. A new guidance product based on this work will be made available to partners and customers.

For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (http://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy).

Corresponding author e-mail: Bob Glahn, harry.glahn@noaa.gov
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