A Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Tropical Cyclones under the Influence of Terrain

Hao-Yan Liu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

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Yuqing Wang State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China, and International Pacific Research Center, and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

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Jing Xu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

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Yihong Duan State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

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Abstract

This study extends an earlier dynamical initialization (DI) scheme for tropical cyclones (TCs) to situations under the influence of terrain. When any terrain lower than 1 km exists between 150 and 450 km from the TC center, topographic variables are defined and a filtering algorithm is used to remove noise due to the presence of terrain before the vortex separation is conducted. When any terrain higher than 1 km exists between 150 and 300 km from the TC center, or the TC center is within 150 km of land, a semi-idealized integration without the terrain is conducted to spin up an axisymmetric TC vortex before the inclusion of the terrain and the merging of the TC vortex with the large-scale analysis field. In addition, a procedure for the vortex size/intensity adjustment is introduced to reduce the initial errors before the forecast run. Two sets of hindcasts, one without (CTRL run) and one with the new DI scheme (DI run), are conducted for nine TCs affected by terrain over the western North Pacific in 2015. Results show that the new DI scheme largely reduces the initial position and intensity errors. The 72-h position errors and the intensity errors up to the 36-h forecasts are smaller in DI runs than in CTRL runs and smaller than those from the HWRF forecasts for the same TCs as well. The new DI scheme is also shown to produce the TC inner-core structure and rainbands more consistent with satellite and radar observations.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Prof. Yuqing Wang, yuqing@hawaii.edu

Abstract

This study extends an earlier dynamical initialization (DI) scheme for tropical cyclones (TCs) to situations under the influence of terrain. When any terrain lower than 1 km exists between 150 and 450 km from the TC center, topographic variables are defined and a filtering algorithm is used to remove noise due to the presence of terrain before the vortex separation is conducted. When any terrain higher than 1 km exists between 150 and 300 km from the TC center, or the TC center is within 150 km of land, a semi-idealized integration without the terrain is conducted to spin up an axisymmetric TC vortex before the inclusion of the terrain and the merging of the TC vortex with the large-scale analysis field. In addition, a procedure for the vortex size/intensity adjustment is introduced to reduce the initial errors before the forecast run. Two sets of hindcasts, one without (CTRL run) and one with the new DI scheme (DI run), are conducted for nine TCs affected by terrain over the western North Pacific in 2015. Results show that the new DI scheme largely reduces the initial position and intensity errors. The 72-h position errors and the intensity errors up to the 36-h forecasts are smaller in DI runs than in CTRL runs and smaller than those from the HWRF forecasts for the same TCs as well. The new DI scheme is also shown to produce the TC inner-core structure and rainbands more consistent with satellite and radar observations.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Prof. Yuqing Wang, yuqing@hawaii.edu
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