Development of an Operational Convective Nowcasting Algorithm Using Raindrop Size Sorting Information from Polarimetric Radar Data

Darrel M. Kingfield Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, and NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Darrel M. Kingfield in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
and
Joseph C. Picca NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

Search for other papers by Joseph C. Picca in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Close
Restricted access

Abstract

Raindrop size sorting is a ubiquitous microphysical occurrence in precipitating systems. Owing to the greater terminal fall speed of larger particles, a raindrop’s fall trajectory can be sensitive to its size, and strong air currents (e.g., a convective updraft) can enhance this sensitivity. Indeed, observational and numerical model simulation studies have confirmed these effects on raindrop size distributions near convective updrafts. One striking example is the lofting of liquid drops and partially frozen hydrometeors above the environmental 0°C level, resulting in a small columnar region of positive differential reflectivity ZDR in polarimetric radar data, known as the ZDR column. This signature can serve as a proxy for updraft location and strength, offering operational forecasters a tool for monitoring convective trends. Beneath the 0°C level, where WSR-88D spatiotemporal resolution is highest, anomalously high ZDR collocated with lower reflectivity factor at horizontal polarization ZH is often observed within and beneath convective updrafts. Here, size sorting creates a deficit in small drops, while relatively large drops and melting hydrometeors are present in low concentrations. As such, this unique raindrop size distribution and its related polarimetric signature can indicate updraft location sooner and more frequently than the detection of a ZDR column. This paper introduces a novel algorithm that capitalizes on the improved radar coverage at lower levels and automates the detection of this size sorting signature. At the algorithm core, unique ZHZDR relationships are created for each radar elevation scan, and positive ZDR outliers (often indicative of size sorting) are identified. Algorithm design, examples, performance, strengths and limitations, and future development are discussed.

Current affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/Global Systems Division, Boulder, Colorado.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Darrel Kingfield, darrel.kingfield@noaa.gov

Abstract

Raindrop size sorting is a ubiquitous microphysical occurrence in precipitating systems. Owing to the greater terminal fall speed of larger particles, a raindrop’s fall trajectory can be sensitive to its size, and strong air currents (e.g., a convective updraft) can enhance this sensitivity. Indeed, observational and numerical model simulation studies have confirmed these effects on raindrop size distributions near convective updrafts. One striking example is the lofting of liquid drops and partially frozen hydrometeors above the environmental 0°C level, resulting in a small columnar region of positive differential reflectivity ZDR in polarimetric radar data, known as the ZDR column. This signature can serve as a proxy for updraft location and strength, offering operational forecasters a tool for monitoring convective trends. Beneath the 0°C level, where WSR-88D spatiotemporal resolution is highest, anomalously high ZDR collocated with lower reflectivity factor at horizontal polarization ZH is often observed within and beneath convective updrafts. Here, size sorting creates a deficit in small drops, while relatively large drops and melting hydrometeors are present in low concentrations. As such, this unique raindrop size distribution and its related polarimetric signature can indicate updraft location sooner and more frequently than the detection of a ZDR column. This paper introduces a novel algorithm that capitalizes on the improved radar coverage at lower levels and automates the detection of this size sorting signature. At the algorithm core, unique ZHZDR relationships are created for each radar elevation scan, and positive ZDR outliers (often indicative of size sorting) are identified. Algorithm design, examples, performance, strengths and limitations, and future development are discussed.

Current affiliation: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/Global Systems Division, Boulder, Colorado.

© 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Darrel Kingfield, darrel.kingfield@noaa.gov
Save
  • Benjamin, S. G., and Coauthors, 2016: A North American hourly assimilation and model forecast cycle: The Rapid Refresh. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 16691694, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0242.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brandes, E. A., J. Vivekanandan, J. D. Tuttle, and C. J. Kessinger, 1995: A study of thunderstorm microphysics with multiparameter radar and aircraft observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 31293143, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<3129:ASOTMW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brandes, E. A., G. Zhang, and J. Vivekanandan, 2002: Experiments in rainfall estimation with a polarimetric radar in a subtropical environment. J. Appl. Meteor., 41, 674685, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2002)041<0674:EIREWA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bringi, V. N., and V. Chandrasekar, 2001: Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar. 1st ed. Cambridge University Press, 636 pp.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Bringi, V. N., D. A. Burrows, and S. M. Menon, 1991: Multiparameter radar and aircraft study of raindrop spectral evolution in warm-based clouds. J. Appl. Meteor., 30, 853880, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1991)030<0853:MRAASO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cao, Q., G. Zhang, E. Brandes, T. Schuur, A. Ryzhkov, and K. Ikeda, 2008: Analysis of video disdrometer and polarimetric radar data to characterize rain microphysics in Oklahoma. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 22382255, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1732.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Caylor, I. J., and A. J. Illingworth, 1987: Radar observations and modelling of warm rain initiation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 113, 11711191, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711347806.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Conway, J. W., and D. S. Zrnić, 1993: A study of embryo production and hail growth using dual-Doppler and multiparameter radars. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 25112528, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2511:ASOEPA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dawson, D. T., E. R. Mansell, Y. Jung, L. J. Wicker, M. R. Kumjian, and M. Xue, 2014: Low-level ZDR signatures in supercell forward flanks: The role of size sorting and melting of hail. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 276299, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0118.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dawson, D. T., E. R. Mansell, and M. R. Kumjian, 2015: Does wind shear cause hydrometeor size sorting? J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 340348, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-14-0084.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Doviak, R. J., and D. S. Zrnić, 1993: Doppler Radar and Weather Observations. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 562 pp.

  • Giangrande, S. E., and A. V. Ryzhkov, 2008: Estimation of rainfall based on the results of polarimetric echo classification. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol, 47, 24452462, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAMC1753.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Giangrande, S. E., J. M. Krause, and A. V. Ryzhkov, 2008: Automatic designation of the melting layer with a polarimetric prototype of the WSR-88D radar. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 13541364, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1634.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gunn, K. L. S., and J. S. Marshall, 1955: The effect of wind shear on falling precipitation. J. Meteor., 12, 339349, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1955)012<0339:TEOWSO>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hubbert, J. C., V. N. Bringi, L. D. Carey, and S. Bolen, 1998: CSU-CHILL polarimetric radar measurements from a severe hail storm in eastern Colorado. J. Appl. Meteor., 37, 749775, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1998)037<0749:CCPRMF>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hubbert, J. C., M. Dixon, S. M. Ellis, and G. Meymaris, 2009: Weather radar ground clutter. Part I: Identification, modeling, and simulation. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 26, 11651180, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JTECHA1159.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Illingworth, A. J., J. W. F. Goddard, and S. M. Cherry, 1987: Polarization radar studies of precipitation development in convective storms. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 113, 469489, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711347604.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jain, A., 1989: Fundamentals of Digital Image Processing. Prentice Hall, 569 pp.

  • Jameson, A. R., M. J. Murphy, and E. P. Krider, 1996: Multiple-parameter radar observations of isolated Florida thunderstorms during the onset of electrification. J. Appl. Meteor., 35, 343354, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1996)035<0343:MPROOI>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jung, Y., M. Xue, and G. Zhang, 2010: Simulations of polarimetric radar signatures of a supercell storm using a two-moment bulk microphysics scheme. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 146163, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2178.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kennedy, P. C., S. A. Rutledge, W. A. Petersen, and V. N. Bringi, 2001: Polarimetric radar observations of hail formation. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 13471366, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1347:PROOHF>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumjian, M. R., 2013a: Principles and applications of dual-polarization weather radar. Part I: Description of the polarimetric radar variables. J. Oper. Meteor., 1, 226242, https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2013.0119.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumjian, M. R., 2013b: Principles and applications of dual-polarization weather radar. Part II: Warm- and cold-season applications. J. Oper. Meteor., 1, 243264, https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2013.0120.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumjian, M. R., 2013c: Principles and applications of dual-polarization weather radar. Part III: Artifacts. J. Oper. Meteor., 1, 265274, https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2013.0121.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumjian, M. R., and A. V. Ryzhkov, 2008: Polarimetric signatures in supercell thunderstorms. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 19401961, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JAMC1874.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumjian, M. R., and A. V. Ryzhkov, 2009: Storm-relative helicity revealed from polarimetric radar measurements. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 667685, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JAS2815.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumjian, M. R., and A. V. Ryzhkov, 2012: The impact of size sorting on the polarimetric radar variables. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 20422060, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-11-0125.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumjian, M. R., S. M. Ganson, and A. V. Ryzhkov, 2012: Freezing of raindrops in deep convective updrafts: A microphysical and polarimetric model. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 34713490, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-067.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kumjian, M. R., A. P. Khain, N. Benmoshe, E. Ilotoviz, A. V. Ryzhkov, and V. T. Phillips, 2014: The anatomy and physics of ZDR columns: Investigating a polarimetric radar signature with a spectral bin microphysical model. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 18201843, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0354.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lakshmanan, V., T. Smith, G. J. Stumpf, and K. Hondl, 2007: The Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 596612, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF1009.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lakshmanan, V., J. Zhang, and K. Howard, 2010: A technique to censor biological echoes in radar reflectivity data. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 435462, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2255.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Loney, M. L., D. S. Zrnić, J. M. Straka, and A. V. Ryzhkov, 2002: Enhanced polarimetric radar signatures above the melting level in a supercell storm. J. Appl. Meteor., 41, 11791194, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2002)041<1179:EPRSAT>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Marshall, J. S., 1953: Precipitation trajectories and patterns. J. Meteor., 10, 2529, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1953)010<0025:PTAP>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NOAA/NCEI, 2015: Storm Events Database. NOAA/NCEI, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/.

  • NTSB, 2015: Delta Air Lines 1889 final report. National Transportation Safety Board Rep. OPS15IA020, https://www.ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/brief.aspx?ev_id=20150811X22104.

  • Park, H. S., A. V. Ryzhkov, D. S. Zrnić, and K. Kim, 2009: The hydrometeor classification algorithm for the polarimetric WSR-88D: Description and application to an MCS. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 730748, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2222205.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Picca, J. C., M. R. Kumjian, and A. V. Ryzhkov, 2010: ZDR columns as a predictive tool for hail growth and storm evolution. 25th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 11.3, https://ams.confex.com/ams/25SLS/webprogram/Paper175750.html.

  • Pruppacher, H. R., and K. V. Beard, 1970: A wind tunnel investigation of the internal circulation and shape of water drops falling at terminal velocity in air. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 96, 247256, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709640807.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Qi, Y., J. Zhang, and P. Zhang, 2013: A real‐time automated convective and stratiform precipitation segregation algorithm in native radar coordinates. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 139, 22332240, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2095.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rogers, J. W., R. L. Thompson, and P. T. Marsh, 2014: Potential applications of a CONUS sounding climatology developed at the Storm Prediction Center. 27th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Madison, WI, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 145, https://ams.confex.com/ams/27SLS/webprogram/Paper255385.html.

  • Rothfusz, L. P., R. Schneider, D. Novak, K. Klockow, A. E. Gerard, C. Karstens, G. J. Stumpf, and T. M. Smith, 2018: FACETs: A proposed next-generation paradigm for high-impact weather forecasting. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0100.1, in press.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Ryzhkov, A. V., S. E. Giangrande, V. M. Melnikov, and T. J. Schuur, 2005: Calibration issues of dual-polarization radar measurements. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 22, 11381155, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH1772.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Scott, D. W., 1992: Multivariate Density Estimation: Theory, Practice, and Visualization. John Wiley & Sons, 317 pp.

    • Crossref
    • Export Citation
  • Seliga, T. A., and V. N. Bringi, 1976: Potential use of radar different reflectivity measurements at orthogonal polarizations for measuring precipitation. J. Appl. Meteor., 15, 6976, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1976)015<0069:PUORDR>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, P. L., D. J. Musil, A. G. Detwiler, and R. Ramachandran, 1999: Observations of mixed-phase precipitation within a CAPE thunderstorm. J. Appl. Meteor., 38, 145155, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<0145:OOMPPW>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smith, T. M., and Coauthors, 2016: Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) severe weather and aviation products: Initial operating capabilities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 16171630, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00173.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Snyder, J. C., A. V. Ryzhkov, M. R. Kumjian, A. P. Khain, and J. C. Picca, 2015: A ZDR column detection algorithm to examine convective storm updrafts. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 18191844, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0068.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Trömel, S., M. R. Kumjian, A. V. Ryzhkov, C. Simmer, and M. Diederich, 2013: Backscatter differential phase—Estimation and variability. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 25292548, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0124.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wakimoto, R. M., and V. N. Bringi, 1988: Dual-polarization observations of microbursts associated with intense convection: The 20 July storm during the MIST project. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 15211539, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1988)116<1521:DPOOMA>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wilson, J. W., T. M. Weckwerth, J. Vivekanandan, R. M. Wakimoto, and R. W. Russell, 1994: Boundary layer clear-air radar echoes: Origin of echoes and accuracy of derived winds. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 11, 11841206, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(1994)011<1184:BLCARE>2.0.CO;2.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zhang, J., and Coauthors, 2016: Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) quantitative precipitation estimation: Initial operating capabilities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97, 621638, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00174.1.

    • Crossref
    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 0 0 0
Full Text Views 1490 862 64
PDF Downloads 628 103 12