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The Relationship between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

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  • 1 NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
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Abstract

The relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the northern basins of the Western Hemisphere is examined. All rapid intensification events in the part of the Western Hemisphere north of the equator and the MJO phase and amplitude are compiled from 1974 to 2015. Rapid intensification events and the MJO tend to move in tandem with each other from west to east across the hemisphere, though rapid intensification appears most likely during a neutral MJO phase. The addition of this information to an operational statistical rapid intensification forecasting scheme does not significantly improve forecasts.

Corresponding author: Sim D. Aberson, sim.aberson@noaa.gov

Abstract

The relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the northern basins of the Western Hemisphere is examined. All rapid intensification events in the part of the Western Hemisphere north of the equator and the MJO phase and amplitude are compiled from 1974 to 2015. Rapid intensification events and the MJO tend to move in tandem with each other from west to east across the hemisphere, though rapid intensification appears most likely during a neutral MJO phase. The addition of this information to an operational statistical rapid intensification forecasting scheme does not significantly improve forecasts.

Corresponding author: Sim D. Aberson, sim.aberson@noaa.gov
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