Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance

David R. Harrison aCooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma
bNOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

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Matthew S. Elliott bNOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

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Israel L. Jirak bNOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

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Patrick T. Marsh bNOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma

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Online Publication:
16 Jun 2022
Print Publication:
01 Jul 2022
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0001.1
Page(s):
1103–1115
Restricted access

Abstract

The High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast system (HREF) calibrated thunder guidance is a suite of probabilistic forecast products designed to predict the likelihood of at least one cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash within 20 km (12 miles) of a point during a given 1-, 4-, and 24-h time interval. This guidance takes advantage of a combination of storm attribute and environmental fields produced by the convection-allowing HREF to objectively improve upon lightning forecasts generated by the non-convection-allowing Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). This study provides an overview of how the HREF calibrated thunder guidance was developed and calibrated to be statistically reliable against observed CG lightning flashes recorded by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Performance metrics for the 1-, 4-, and 24-h guidance are provided and compared to the respective SREF calibrated probabilistic lightning forecasts. The HREF calibrated thunder guidance has been implemented operationally within the National Weather Service and is now available to the public.

Significance Statement

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has created a suite of new calibrated probabilistic thunderstorm guidance products from a convection-allowing model ensemble, the HREF. The new guidance is a notable improvement over the long-running SREF calibrated thunder guidance and is now operational across the National Weather Service.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: David R. Harrison, david.harrison@noaa.gov

Abstract

The High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast system (HREF) calibrated thunder guidance is a suite of probabilistic forecast products designed to predict the likelihood of at least one cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash within 20 km (12 miles) of a point during a given 1-, 4-, and 24-h time interval. This guidance takes advantage of a combination of storm attribute and environmental fields produced by the convection-allowing HREF to objectively improve upon lightning forecasts generated by the non-convection-allowing Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). This study provides an overview of how the HREF calibrated thunder guidance was developed and calibrated to be statistically reliable against observed CG lightning flashes recorded by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Performance metrics for the 1-, 4-, and 24-h guidance are provided and compared to the respective SREF calibrated probabilistic lightning forecasts. The HREF calibrated thunder guidance has been implemented operationally within the National Weather Service and is now available to the public.

Significance Statement

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has created a suite of new calibrated probabilistic thunderstorm guidance products from a convection-allowing model ensemble, the HREF. The new guidance is a notable improvement over the long-running SREF calibrated thunder guidance and is now operational across the National Weather Service.

© 2022 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: David R. Harrison, david.harrison@noaa.gov
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