Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Sensitivity to Localization Radii for an Ensemble Filter Numerical Weather Prediction System with 30-Second Update

James Taylor aRIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan
bRIKEN Cluster for Pioneering Research, Kobe, Japan

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Takumi Honda aRIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan
bRIKEN Cluster for Pioneering Research, Kobe, Japan
cFaculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan

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Arata Amemiya aRIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan
bRIKEN Cluster for Pioneering Research, Kobe, Japan

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Shigenori Otsuka aRIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan
bRIKEN Cluster for Pioneering Research, Kobe, Japan

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Yasumitsu Maejima aRIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan
bRIKEN Cluster for Pioneering Research, Kobe, Japan

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Takemasa Miyoshi aRIKEN Center for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan
bRIKEN Cluster for Pioneering Research, Kobe, Japan
cFaculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan

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Online Publication:
21 Apr 2023
Print Publication:
01 Apr 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0177.1
Page(s):
611–632
Restricted access

Abstract

A sensitivity analysis for the horizontal localization scale is performed for a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system that uses a 30-s update to refresh a 500-m mesh with observations from a new-generation multiparameter phased array weather radar (MP-PAWR). Testing is performed using three case studies of convective weather events that occurred during August–September 2019, with the aim to determine the most suitable scale for short-range forecasting of precipitating convective systems and to better understand model behavior to a rapid update cycle. Results showed that while the model could provide useful skill at lead times up to 30 min, forecasts would consistently overestimate rainfall and were unable to outperform nowcasts performed with a simple advection model. Using a larger localization scale, e.g., 4 km, generated stronger convective and dynamical instability in the analyses that made conditions more favorable for spurious and intense convection to develop in forecasts. It was demonstrated that lowering the localization scale reduced the size of analysis increments during early cycling, limiting the buildup of these conditions. Improved representation of the localized convection in the initial conditions was suggested as an important step to mitigating this issue in the model.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Publisher’s Note: This article was revised on 25 April 2023 to include two project numbers that were missing from the Acknowledgments section when originally published.

Corresponding author: James Taylor, james.taylor@riken.jp

Abstract

A sensitivity analysis for the horizontal localization scale is performed for a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system that uses a 30-s update to refresh a 500-m mesh with observations from a new-generation multiparameter phased array weather radar (MP-PAWR). Testing is performed using three case studies of convective weather events that occurred during August–September 2019, with the aim to determine the most suitable scale for short-range forecasting of precipitating convective systems and to better understand model behavior to a rapid update cycle. Results showed that while the model could provide useful skill at lead times up to 30 min, forecasts would consistently overestimate rainfall and were unable to outperform nowcasts performed with a simple advection model. Using a larger localization scale, e.g., 4 km, generated stronger convective and dynamical instability in the analyses that made conditions more favorable for spurious and intense convection to develop in forecasts. It was demonstrated that lowering the localization scale reduced the size of analysis increments during early cycling, limiting the buildup of these conditions. Improved representation of the localized convection in the initial conditions was suggested as an important step to mitigating this issue in the model.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Publisher’s Note: This article was revised on 25 April 2023 to include two project numbers that were missing from the Acknowledgments section when originally published.

Corresponding author: James Taylor, james.taylor@riken.jp
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