M-PERC: A New Satellite Microwave-Based Model to Diagnose the Onset of Tropical Cyclone Eyewall Replacement Cycles

James P. Kossin aThe Climate Service (an S&P Global company), Madison, Wisconsin
bUniversity of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin
cClimate Science and Services Division, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, North Carolina

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Derrick C. Herndon dCooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, Wisconsin

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Anthony J. Wimmers dCooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, Wisconsin

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Xi Guo dCooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, Madison, Wisconsin
eJiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China

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Eric S. Blake fNOAA/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida

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Abstract

Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) in tropical cyclones (TCs) are generally associated with rapid changes in TC wind intensity and broadening of the TC wind field, both of which can create unique forecasting challenges. As part of the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed Project, a new model was developed to provide operational probabilistic guidance on ERC onset. The model is based on the time evolution of TC wind intensity and passive satellite microwave imagery and is named “M-PERC” for Microwave-Based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle. The model was initially developed in the Atlantic basin but is found to be globally applicable and skillful. The development of M-PERC and its performance characteristics are described here, as well as a new intensity prediction model that extends previous work. Application of these models is expected to contribute to a reduction of TC intensity forecast error.

Kossin: Retired from NOAA.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: James Kossin, jpkossin@wisc.edu

Abstract

Eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) in tropical cyclones (TCs) are generally associated with rapid changes in TC wind intensity and broadening of the TC wind field, both of which can create unique forecasting challenges. As part of the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed Project, a new model was developed to provide operational probabilistic guidance on ERC onset. The model is based on the time evolution of TC wind intensity and passive satellite microwave imagery and is named “M-PERC” for Microwave-Based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle. The model was initially developed in the Atlantic basin but is found to be globally applicable and skillful. The development of M-PERC and its performance characteristics are described here, as well as a new intensity prediction model that extends previous work. Application of these models is expected to contribute to a reduction of TC intensity forecast error.

Kossin: Retired from NOAA.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: James Kossin, jpkossin@wisc.edu
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