Editorial Type:
Article
Article Type:
Research Article

Biases and Skill of Four Two-Moment Bulk Microphysics Schemes in Convection-Allowing Forecasts for the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment Period

Marcus Johnson aCenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma
bSchool of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9449-6371
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Ming Xue aCenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma
bSchool of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

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Youngsun Jung aCenter for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma
bSchool of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

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Online Publication:
22 Aug 2023
Print Publication:
01 Sep 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0171.1
Page(s):
1621–1642
Restricted access

Abstract

A proof-of-concept systematic evaluation of convective hazards is applied to short-term (1–6 h) forecasts using the Morrison, National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), Predicted Particle Properties (P3), and Thompson two-moment microphysics schemes for the 2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (HWT SFE) period (hereafter “MORR,” “NSSL,” “P3,” and “THOM” experiments, respectively). Four convective line cases are highlighted to elaborate on relative experiment biases/skill. Composite reflectivity and 1-h accumulated precipitation are examined to determine storm coverage/precipitation biases/skill utilizing point-based verification with a neighborhood. Simulated 1–6-km updraft helicity and observed 3–6-km azimuthal shear and MESH are examined to consider simulated rotation and hail core prediction with object-based scores. Over the full season, MORR displays little overall storm coverage bias relative to NSSL, P3, and THOM underprediction. The equitable threat score (ETS) and fractions skill score (FSS) of P3 are lower than the other experiments. P3 and THOM underpredict convective regions with intense reflectivity relative to MORR and NSSL overprediction. All experiments underpredict precipitation amounts. P3 light precipitation FSS is lower than other experiments. Rotation object verification exhibits sensitivity to microphysics experiments, as microphysics has an indirect influence on storm dynamics. While P3 has the largest hail object underprediction, all experiments grossly overpredict the number of hail objects in convective line cases despite forecast objects defined with the same product (MESH) and threshold as observations. The importance of microphysics ice parameterization and ongoing scheme updates highlight the need to apply this verification framework to optimal/updated schemes before optimizing ensemble design.

Jung’s current affiliation: Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, Maryland.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Ming Xue, mxue@ou.edu

Abstract

A proof-of-concept systematic evaluation of convective hazards is applied to short-term (1–6 h) forecasts using the Morrison, National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), Predicted Particle Properties (P3), and Thompson two-moment microphysics schemes for the 2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment (HWT SFE) period (hereafter “MORR,” “NSSL,” “P3,” and “THOM” experiments, respectively). Four convective line cases are highlighted to elaborate on relative experiment biases/skill. Composite reflectivity and 1-h accumulated precipitation are examined to determine storm coverage/precipitation biases/skill utilizing point-based verification with a neighborhood. Simulated 1–6-km updraft helicity and observed 3–6-km azimuthal shear and MESH are examined to consider simulated rotation and hail core prediction with object-based scores. Over the full season, MORR displays little overall storm coverage bias relative to NSSL, P3, and THOM underprediction. The equitable threat score (ETS) and fractions skill score (FSS) of P3 are lower than the other experiments. P3 and THOM underpredict convective regions with intense reflectivity relative to MORR and NSSL overprediction. All experiments underpredict precipitation amounts. P3 light precipitation FSS is lower than other experiments. Rotation object verification exhibits sensitivity to microphysics experiments, as microphysics has an indirect influence on storm dynamics. While P3 has the largest hail object underprediction, all experiments grossly overpredict the number of hail objects in convective line cases despite forecast objects defined with the same product (MESH) and threshold as observations. The importance of microphysics ice parameterization and ongoing scheme updates highlight the need to apply this verification framework to optimal/updated schemes before optimizing ensemble design.

Jung’s current affiliation: Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, Maryland.

© 2023 American Meteorological Society. This published article is licensed under the terms of the default AMS reuse license. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).

Corresponding author: Ming Xue, mxue@ou.edu
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