On the Skill and Utility of NMC's Medium-Range Central Guidance

M. Steven Tracton Climate Analysis Center, National Meteorological Center, National Weather Service/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C.

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Abstract

Verification scores are presented to illustrate the general success of NMC forecasters in providing the best day 3,4, and 5 mean sea level pressure and 6–10-day mean 500-mb height fields given the operationally available array of often conflicting NWP model solutions. As a primer on NMC efforts to enhance the utility of the medium-range forecast guidance, a brief overview is provided on the rationale and expectations for ensemble prediction.

Abstract

Verification scores are presented to illustrate the general success of NMC forecasters in providing the best day 3,4, and 5 mean sea level pressure and 6–10-day mean 500-mb height fields given the operationally available array of often conflicting NWP model solutions. As a primer on NMC efforts to enhance the utility of the medium-range forecast guidance, a brief overview is provided on the rationale and expectations for ensemble prediction.

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