Evaluation of ECMWF Precipitation Predictions in China during 2015–2018

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  • 1 Key Laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms (LACS), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), Beijing, China
  • 2 University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 3 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China
  • 4 Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), Beijing, China
  • 5 State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy and Storage Systems, China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100085, China;
  • 6 Electric Power Meteorology State Grid Corporation of China Joint Laboratory, Beijing 100192, China
  • 7 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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Abstract

Precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF model from March to September during 2015–2018 were evaluated using observed precipitation at 2411 stations from the China Meteorological Administration. To eliminate the influence of varying climatology in different regions in China, the Stable Equitable Error in Probability Space method was used to obtain criteria for 3-h and 6-h accumulated precipitation at each station and classified precipitation into light, medium, and heavy precipitation. The model was evaluated for these categories using categorical and continuous methods. The threat score and the equitable threat score showed that the model’s forecasts of rainfall were generally more accurate at shorter lead times, and the best performance occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The miss ratio for heavy precipitation was higher in the northern region than in the southern region, while heavy precipitation false alarms were more frequent in the southwestern China. Overall, the miss ratio and false alarm ratio for heavy precipitation were highest in northern China and western China, respectively. For light and medium precipitation, the model performed best in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The model predicted too much light and medium precipitation, but too little heavy precipitation. Heavy precipitation was generally underestimated over all of China, especially in the western region of China, South China, and the Yungui Plateau. Heavy precipitation was systematically underestimated because of the resolution and the related parametrization of convection.

Corresponding author: Jianhua Sun, sjh@mail.iap.ac.cn

Abstract

Precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF model from March to September during 2015–2018 were evaluated using observed precipitation at 2411 stations from the China Meteorological Administration. To eliminate the influence of varying climatology in different regions in China, the Stable Equitable Error in Probability Space method was used to obtain criteria for 3-h and 6-h accumulated precipitation at each station and classified precipitation into light, medium, and heavy precipitation. The model was evaluated for these categories using categorical and continuous methods. The threat score and the equitable threat score showed that the model’s forecasts of rainfall were generally more accurate at shorter lead times, and the best performance occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The miss ratio for heavy precipitation was higher in the northern region than in the southern region, while heavy precipitation false alarms were more frequent in the southwestern China. Overall, the miss ratio and false alarm ratio for heavy precipitation were highest in northern China and western China, respectively. For light and medium precipitation, the model performed best in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The model predicted too much light and medium precipitation, but too little heavy precipitation. Heavy precipitation was generally underestimated over all of China, especially in the western region of China, South China, and the Yungui Plateau. Heavy precipitation was systematically underestimated because of the resolution and the related parametrization of convection.

Corresponding author: Jianhua Sun, sjh@mail.iap.ac.cn
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