An attempt is made to develop an objective method of forecasting winter-time stratus at Kansas City, Mo., using the theory that air of higher moisture content advancing upon Kansas City will cause stratus to form. The gradient of moisture in the air is indicated by the relationship between temperature at the station and dew point upstream from the station. Using four variables, temperature, geostrophic wind direction and geostrophic wind velocity at Kansas City, and dew point upstream from Kansas City, a set of three charts is constructed, using graphical correlation methods. The final chart gives a probability of the occurrence or non-occurrence of stratus. Test data show an accuracy of 78.4%, and a skill score of 35.0% over chance.
Research Article| 21 August 2018
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Handy, B., 1950: Forecasting Winter-Time Stratus at Kansas City, Mo.. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 31, 38–43, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-31.2.38.
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