An objective method is developed for forecasting the occurrence and intensity of showers. A composite moisture-stability parameter is designed which approximates the current structure of the atmosphere. This parameter is then combined with a vorticity-advection parameter which dictates the changes of the current structure. The system is designed for the summer season and is tested for Chanute Air Force Base, Illinois with a resultant skill score and per cent correct of 0.74 and 90 respectively.

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