Demonstration of probabilistic hydrological and atmospheric simulation of flood events in the Alpine region (D-PHASE) is made by the Forecast Demonstration Project in connection with the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its focus lies in the end-to-end flood forecasting in a mountainous region such as the Alps and surrounding lower ranges. Its scope ranges from radar observations and atmospheric and hydrological modeling to the decision making by the civil protection agents. More than 30 atmospheric high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic models coupled to some seven hydrological models in various combinations provided real-time online information. This information was available for many different catchments across the Alps over a demonstration period of 6 months in summer/fall 2007. The Web-based exchange platform additionally contained nowcasting information from various operational services and feedback channels for the forecasters and end users. D-PHASE applications include objective model verification and intercomparison, the assessment of (subjective) end user feedback, and evaluation of the overall gain from the coupling of the various components in the end-to-end forecasting system.

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Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), Zurich, Switzerland

University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany

Météo-France, Toulouse, France

ISAC-CNR, Bologna, Italy

ARPAL CRMIPC, Genova, Italy

German Weather Service (DWD), Offenbach, Germany

University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria

Swiss Federal Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

DLR, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy

Canadian Meteorological Centre, Environment Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

University of Brescia, Italy

University Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France

ARPAV, Centro Meteorologico Teolo, Italy

AEMet, Madrid, Spain

ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland

Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, Austria

Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany

A supplement to this article is available online (10.1175/2009BAMS2776.2)