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Abstract
Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, and hail) as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) framework. In this study, we employ the embedded systems theory (EST)—a communication framework that analyzes small group workplace practices as products of group, organizational, and local dynamics—to understand how probabilistic hazard information (PHI) is produced and negotiated among multiple NWS weather forecast offices in an experimental setting. Gathering feedback from NWS meteorologists who participated in the 2020 Hazard Services (HS)-PHI Interoffice Collaboration experiment, we explored implications of local and interoffice collaboration while using this experimental tool. By using a qualitative thematic analysis, it was found that differing probability thresholds, forecasting styles, social dynamics, and workload will be social factors that developers should consider as they bring PHI toward operational readiness. Warning operations in this new paradigm were also implemented into the EST model to create a communication ecosystem for future weather hazard communication research.
Significance Statement
Meteorologists are currently exploring how to use probabilities to communicate life-saving information. From tornadoes to hail, a new type of probabilistic hazard information could fundamentally change the way that NWS meteorologists collaborate with one another when issuing weather products, especially near and along the boundaries of County Warning Areas. To explore potential collaboration challenges and solutions, we applied a communication framework and explored perceptions that NWS meteorologists had while using this new tool in an experimental setting. NWS meteorologists expressed that differing ways of communicating hazard information between each office, along with forecasting styles and workload, would change the way they go about producing critical hazard information to the public.
Abstract
Scientists at NOAA are testing a new tool that allows forecasters to communicate estimated probabilities of severe hazards (tornadoes, severe wind, and hail) as part of the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) framework. In this study, we employ the embedded systems theory (EST)—a communication framework that analyzes small group workplace practices as products of group, organizational, and local dynamics—to understand how probabilistic hazard information (PHI) is produced and negotiated among multiple NWS weather forecast offices in an experimental setting. Gathering feedback from NWS meteorologists who participated in the 2020 Hazard Services (HS)-PHI Interoffice Collaboration experiment, we explored implications of local and interoffice collaboration while using this experimental tool. By using a qualitative thematic analysis, it was found that differing probability thresholds, forecasting styles, social dynamics, and workload will be social factors that developers should consider as they bring PHI toward operational readiness. Warning operations in this new paradigm were also implemented into the EST model to create a communication ecosystem for future weather hazard communication research.
Significance Statement
Meteorologists are currently exploring how to use probabilities to communicate life-saving information. From tornadoes to hail, a new type of probabilistic hazard information could fundamentally change the way that NWS meteorologists collaborate with one another when issuing weather products, especially near and along the boundaries of County Warning Areas. To explore potential collaboration challenges and solutions, we applied a communication framework and explored perceptions that NWS meteorologists had while using this new tool in an experimental setting. NWS meteorologists expressed that differing ways of communicating hazard information between each office, along with forecasting styles and workload, would change the way they go about producing critical hazard information to the public.
Abstract
As Arctic open water increases, shipping activity to and from mid- and western Russian Arctic ports to points south has notably increased. A number of Arctic municipalities hope increased vessel traffic will create opportunities to become a major transshipment hub. However, even with more traffic passing these ports, it might still be economically cheaper to offload cargo at a more southern port, which may also result in lower emissions. Ultimately, the question of whether to use a transshipment in the Arctic versus an established major European port is determined by the relative costs (or emissions) of sea versus land travel. This study calculates the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal hubs for shipments. We quantify the relative prices and CO2 emissions for sea and land travel for routes starting at the Norwegian–Russian sea border with an ultimate destination in central Europe and find that all existing routes are not competitive with routes using the major existing Port of Rotterdam (Netherlands); even with investments in port expansion and modernization, they would be underutilized regardless of an increase in vessel traffic destined for central Europe. We then examine under what relative prices (emissions) these routes become economically viable or result in lower emissions than using existing southern ports. Notably, the cheapest routes generally produce the lowest emissions, and the most expensive routes tend to have the largest emissions. Communities should consider relative competitiveness prior to making large infrastructure investments. While some choices are physically possible, they may not be economically viable.
Significance Statement
Climate change, while disruptive, can also create new opportunities. Many Arctic cities hope to become a major transshipping hub as declining sea ice opens new shipping routes from western and mid-Russian Arctic ports to European ports. This paper quantifies the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal transportation hubs and finds that they are uncompetitive with the more southern port in Rotterdam (Netherlands). We also show that the most economically competitive routes have lower direct emissions. Thus, while Arctic ports provide critical services in support of local and regional economic activity, even with year-round Arctic navigation Arctic ports’ development into major transshipment hubs for cargo destined for more distant locations may be neither economically viable nor desirable.
Abstract
As Arctic open water increases, shipping activity to and from mid- and western Russian Arctic ports to points south has notably increased. A number of Arctic municipalities hope increased vessel traffic will create opportunities to become a major transshipment hub. However, even with more traffic passing these ports, it might still be economically cheaper to offload cargo at a more southern port, which may also result in lower emissions. Ultimately, the question of whether to use a transshipment in the Arctic versus an established major European port is determined by the relative costs (or emissions) of sea versus land travel. This study calculates the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal hubs for shipments. We quantify the relative prices and CO2 emissions for sea and land travel for routes starting at the Norwegian–Russian sea border with an ultimate destination in central Europe and find that all existing routes are not competitive with routes using the major existing Port of Rotterdam (Netherlands); even with investments in port expansion and modernization, they would be underutilized regardless of an increase in vessel traffic destined for central Europe. We then examine under what relative prices (emissions) these routes become economically viable or result in lower emissions than using existing southern ports. Notably, the cheapest routes generally produce the lowest emissions, and the most expensive routes tend to have the largest emissions. Communities should consider relative competitiveness prior to making large infrastructure investments. While some choices are physically possible, they may not be economically viable.
Significance Statement
Climate change, while disruptive, can also create new opportunities. Many Arctic cities hope to become a major transshipping hub as declining sea ice opens new shipping routes from western and mid-Russian Arctic ports to European ports. This paper quantifies the relative competitiveness of six Norwegian coastal cities as multimodal transportation hubs and finds that they are uncompetitive with the more southern port in Rotterdam (Netherlands). We also show that the most economically competitive routes have lower direct emissions. Thus, while Arctic ports provide critical services in support of local and regional economic activity, even with year-round Arctic navigation Arctic ports’ development into major transshipment hubs for cargo destined for more distant locations may be neither economically viable nor desirable.
Abstract
Weather risk management products can be critical for supporting effective humanitarian actions to mitigate and prevent disasters; however, to be truly actionable, they must be based in an understanding of how weather contributes to disaster risk, informed by humanitarians’ decision-making context. Our paper seeks to identify considerations for weather risk management products to support disaster risk management, through analysis of humanitarian perceptions of the factors and processes that contribute to weather-influenced disasters, taking Somalia as a case study. We carry out semistructured interviews with humanitarian actors familiar with using weather information in their work, and we apply social cascades and disaster risk creation as conceptual tools in our analysis. Our study finds that humanitarian actors perceive historically influenced social networks, livelihood dependence on seasonality, terrorist territorial control, public capacities to manage disasters, and household-level factors related to asset control and coping mechanisms contribute to weather-influenced disasters in Somalia. These factors and processes are part of humanitarians’ dynamic decision-making context. Key insights from our study concern the importance of understanding local geographies of marginalization to design weather risk management products with the context specificity necessary for effective humanitarian actions. Also, assessing weather effects on livelihood calendars can help identify those seasonal weather conditions most responsible for detrimental livelihood impacts. Consideration of livelihood calendars can also promote accurate assessment of the effects of consecutive weather-related hazards on coping capacities and resiliency.
Abstract
Weather risk management products can be critical for supporting effective humanitarian actions to mitigate and prevent disasters; however, to be truly actionable, they must be based in an understanding of how weather contributes to disaster risk, informed by humanitarians’ decision-making context. Our paper seeks to identify considerations for weather risk management products to support disaster risk management, through analysis of humanitarian perceptions of the factors and processes that contribute to weather-influenced disasters, taking Somalia as a case study. We carry out semistructured interviews with humanitarian actors familiar with using weather information in their work, and we apply social cascades and disaster risk creation as conceptual tools in our analysis. Our study finds that humanitarian actors perceive historically influenced social networks, livelihood dependence on seasonality, terrorist territorial control, public capacities to manage disasters, and household-level factors related to asset control and coping mechanisms contribute to weather-influenced disasters in Somalia. These factors and processes are part of humanitarians’ dynamic decision-making context. Key insights from our study concern the importance of understanding local geographies of marginalization to design weather risk management products with the context specificity necessary for effective humanitarian actions. Also, assessing weather effects on livelihood calendars can help identify those seasonal weather conditions most responsible for detrimental livelihood impacts. Consideration of livelihood calendars can also promote accurate assessment of the effects of consecutive weather-related hazards on coping capacities and resiliency.
Abstract
Understanding when weather information is required by the public is essential for evaluating and improving user-oriented weather services. Because of the popularity of smartphones, most people can easily access weather information via smartphone applications. In this study, we analyzed usage data for the Moji Weather smartphone application in 2017 and 2018 and devised a demand index to determine how often the weather information was used by the public under different weather conditions. Using hourly observations of surface temperature, wind intensity, precipitation, and visibility, we quantified the relationship between the demand for weather information and weather conditions in different regions of China. In general, the demand index increased with increases in local hourly precipitation or surface wind intensity in all regions; however, there were notable regional differences in the increasing trends. Extreme hot weather was found to increase the demand index in Northern China, Xinjiang, and the Sichuan Basin while in Southern China it increased more in response to extreme cold weather. We quantified the relationships between the demand index and weather conditions by performing a polynomial regression analysis for each weather element and region. The high-demand thresholds were found to vary among regions, suggesting the need for customized weather services for users in different geographical regions. The study also revealed the contribution of weather warnings to weather information demand in two megacities and showed that warnings were effective for conveying information about weather-related risks.
Abstract
Understanding when weather information is required by the public is essential for evaluating and improving user-oriented weather services. Because of the popularity of smartphones, most people can easily access weather information via smartphone applications. In this study, we analyzed usage data for the Moji Weather smartphone application in 2017 and 2018 and devised a demand index to determine how often the weather information was used by the public under different weather conditions. Using hourly observations of surface temperature, wind intensity, precipitation, and visibility, we quantified the relationship between the demand for weather information and weather conditions in different regions of China. In general, the demand index increased with increases in local hourly precipitation or surface wind intensity in all regions; however, there were notable regional differences in the increasing trends. Extreme hot weather was found to increase the demand index in Northern China, Xinjiang, and the Sichuan Basin while in Southern China it increased more in response to extreme cold weather. We quantified the relationships between the demand index and weather conditions by performing a polynomial regression analysis for each weather element and region. The high-demand thresholds were found to vary among regions, suggesting the need for customized weather services for users in different geographical regions. The study also revealed the contribution of weather warnings to weather information demand in two megacities and showed that warnings were effective for conveying information about weather-related risks.
Abstract
Adverse weather such as rain, snow, and fog may significantly reduce visibility or change adhesion properties and, as a consequence, affect drivers’ sense of safety, driving comfort, and their reaction to a changing driving environment (i.e., lower speed and increased headways). The changed behavior of individual drivers affects both traffic flow characteristics, that is, average speed and headways, and parameters related to highway performance such as free-flow speed and capacity. Thus, understanding the impact may be important in the context of predicting and assessing traffic conditions on planned or existing road facilities. The paper discusses the effects of adverse weather conditions and time of day on traffic flow characteristics and the parameters related to highway performance. Using real traffic and weather data from a Polish expressway, the paper aims to identify factors related to weather and time of day that significantly influence traffic flow parameters and traffic conditions and to analyze and quantify this impact. The results of the study may help to develop coefficients of weather-related adjustment factors that will make it possible to estimate, for example, average speed of vehicles in the nighttime or in conditions of rain or limited visibility. The results of the study may contribute to a new Polish method for capacity estimation and traffic conditions assessment for uninterrupted traffic facilities.
Abstract
Adverse weather such as rain, snow, and fog may significantly reduce visibility or change adhesion properties and, as a consequence, affect drivers’ sense of safety, driving comfort, and their reaction to a changing driving environment (i.e., lower speed and increased headways). The changed behavior of individual drivers affects both traffic flow characteristics, that is, average speed and headways, and parameters related to highway performance such as free-flow speed and capacity. Thus, understanding the impact may be important in the context of predicting and assessing traffic conditions on planned or existing road facilities. The paper discusses the effects of adverse weather conditions and time of day on traffic flow characteristics and the parameters related to highway performance. Using real traffic and weather data from a Polish expressway, the paper aims to identify factors related to weather and time of day that significantly influence traffic flow parameters and traffic conditions and to analyze and quantify this impact. The results of the study may help to develop coefficients of weather-related adjustment factors that will make it possible to estimate, for example, average speed of vehicles in the nighttime or in conditions of rain or limited visibility. The results of the study may contribute to a new Polish method for capacity estimation and traffic conditions assessment for uninterrupted traffic facilities.
Abstract
Winter-weather conditions pose an extreme hazard to motorists, resulting in approximately 1000 fatalities annually on U.S. roadways. Minimizing adverse impacts of winter weather requires (i) the identification of hazardous weather conditions leading up to and at the time of fatal crashes, and (ii) effective, targeted messaging of those hazards to motorists. The first objective is addressed by matching motor-vehicle-related fatalities from 2008 to 2019 to nearby weather reports to determine how precipitation types and other observable weather conditions (i.e., precipitation intensity, obscurations, and visibility) change leading up to crashes. One-half of fatalities occur in snow, with 75% occurring in ongoing snowfall. Of fatalities during freezing precipitation, 41% occur near the onset of freezing precipitation. In addition, 42% of fatalities have deteriorating weather conditions prior to the crash, primarily visibility reductions of ≥25%. The second objective is addressed by examining language currently used in National Weather Service Winter Weather Warning, Watch, or Advisory (WSW) issuances for fatal crashes. Only one-third of fatalities have a WSW. These WSWs both identify a road hazard (e.g., “roads will become slick”) and provide an action item for motorists (e.g., “slow down and use caution while driving”) but do not clearly convey tiered road-hazard ratings. Examination of non-weather-related attributes of fatal crashes suggest that variable-message signs along highways may be useful to communicate road hazards, and that future messaging should urge motorists to leave additional space around their vehicles, slow down, prepare for rapidly deteriorating conditions, and teach strategies to regain control of their vehicle.
Significance Statement
We find that approximately 1000 fatalities occur each year on U.S. roadways during winter weather. To inform how to reduce fatalities in the future, we identify weather conditions leading up to and at the time of fatal crashes and determine whether road hazards were publicly messaged alongside weather warnings and advisories. Ongoing snowfall, the onset of freezing precipitation, and visibility reductions were prominent factors found in many fatal crashes, suggesting that these may be important factors to address in future safety studies. Winter-weather warnings and advisories often contain language cautioning road hazards, yet only one-third of fatalities occur during conditions with such official statements. However, these statements do not clearly indicate how hazardous roads will be.
Abstract
Winter-weather conditions pose an extreme hazard to motorists, resulting in approximately 1000 fatalities annually on U.S. roadways. Minimizing adverse impacts of winter weather requires (i) the identification of hazardous weather conditions leading up to and at the time of fatal crashes, and (ii) effective, targeted messaging of those hazards to motorists. The first objective is addressed by matching motor-vehicle-related fatalities from 2008 to 2019 to nearby weather reports to determine how precipitation types and other observable weather conditions (i.e., precipitation intensity, obscurations, and visibility) change leading up to crashes. One-half of fatalities occur in snow, with 75% occurring in ongoing snowfall. Of fatalities during freezing precipitation, 41% occur near the onset of freezing precipitation. In addition, 42% of fatalities have deteriorating weather conditions prior to the crash, primarily visibility reductions of ≥25%. The second objective is addressed by examining language currently used in National Weather Service Winter Weather Warning, Watch, or Advisory (WSW) issuances for fatal crashes. Only one-third of fatalities have a WSW. These WSWs both identify a road hazard (e.g., “roads will become slick”) and provide an action item for motorists (e.g., “slow down and use caution while driving”) but do not clearly convey tiered road-hazard ratings. Examination of non-weather-related attributes of fatal crashes suggest that variable-message signs along highways may be useful to communicate road hazards, and that future messaging should urge motorists to leave additional space around their vehicles, slow down, prepare for rapidly deteriorating conditions, and teach strategies to regain control of their vehicle.
Significance Statement
We find that approximately 1000 fatalities occur each year on U.S. roadways during winter weather. To inform how to reduce fatalities in the future, we identify weather conditions leading up to and at the time of fatal crashes and determine whether road hazards were publicly messaged alongside weather warnings and advisories. Ongoing snowfall, the onset of freezing precipitation, and visibility reductions were prominent factors found in many fatal crashes, suggesting that these may be important factors to address in future safety studies. Winter-weather warnings and advisories often contain language cautioning road hazards, yet only one-third of fatalities occur during conditions with such official statements. However, these statements do not clearly indicate how hazardous roads will be.
Abstract
Traditional ways of reading nature’s clues to figure out impending weather are widely practiced in many rural societies in the world. They have been, however, often discounted by a western science-based meteorological forecasting system, although they are important sociocultural tools for mitigating climatic risks. This paper concerns two thematic issues: traditional knowledge about reading nature’s clues to figure out impending weather; and the transformation of that knowledge in the changing context of livelihood, the intervention of modern education, and use of modern weather forecasting technology. This study was carried out at Kirtipur of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, between 2011 and 2021. Information was collected through key informant interviews, observation, and informal discussion and survey. The findings reveal that the traditional weather forecasting system is closely intertwined with climatic phenomena, traditional agriculture practices, the local landscape, myths, and beliefs. The recognition of farmers’ knowledge on weather forecasting should be a resource of a great potential value. However, rapid expansion of the market economy, access to modern technology, affordability, access to modern education, and anthropogenic climate change have gradually detached people from their farmlands, traditional livelihoods, and occupations. All of this seems to have weakened social interaction between generations as well as their attachment to nature. Last, we conclude that the production and consumption of weather forecasting knowledge need local and scientific communities to work together to reduce knowledge gaps.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to understand how farmers read nature to figure out impending weather, even as such knowledge is gradually weakening with the expansion of new technology, the intervention of modern education, the shift from farming-based to nonfarming activities for livelihood, and climate change. In such a context, the survival of traditional weather forecasting knowledge may seem uncertain. Our study reveals that traditional weather forecasting knowledge is rooted in the local landscape and subsistence farming culture. Therefore, the production and consumption of weather forecasting knowledge need local and scientific communities to work together to reduce knowledge gaps and recognize the contributions of both types of knowledge.
Abstract
Traditional ways of reading nature’s clues to figure out impending weather are widely practiced in many rural societies in the world. They have been, however, often discounted by a western science-based meteorological forecasting system, although they are important sociocultural tools for mitigating climatic risks. This paper concerns two thematic issues: traditional knowledge about reading nature’s clues to figure out impending weather; and the transformation of that knowledge in the changing context of livelihood, the intervention of modern education, and use of modern weather forecasting technology. This study was carried out at Kirtipur of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, between 2011 and 2021. Information was collected through key informant interviews, observation, and informal discussion and survey. The findings reveal that the traditional weather forecasting system is closely intertwined with climatic phenomena, traditional agriculture practices, the local landscape, myths, and beliefs. The recognition of farmers’ knowledge on weather forecasting should be a resource of a great potential value. However, rapid expansion of the market economy, access to modern technology, affordability, access to modern education, and anthropogenic climate change have gradually detached people from their farmlands, traditional livelihoods, and occupations. All of this seems to have weakened social interaction between generations as well as their attachment to nature. Last, we conclude that the production and consumption of weather forecasting knowledge need local and scientific communities to work together to reduce knowledge gaps.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to understand how farmers read nature to figure out impending weather, even as such knowledge is gradually weakening with the expansion of new technology, the intervention of modern education, the shift from farming-based to nonfarming activities for livelihood, and climate change. In such a context, the survival of traditional weather forecasting knowledge may seem uncertain. Our study reveals that traditional weather forecasting knowledge is rooted in the local landscape and subsistence farming culture. Therefore, the production and consumption of weather forecasting knowledge need local and scientific communities to work together to reduce knowledge gaps and recognize the contributions of both types of knowledge.
Abstract
As tropical cyclone threats evolve, broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers rely on timely forecast information to help them communicate risk with the public and protect public safety. This study aims to improve the usability and applicability of National Weather Service (NWS) forecast information in the context of these NWS core partners’ decisions during tropical cyclone threats. The research collected and analyzed data from in-depth interviews with broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers in three coastal U.S. states. These data were used to analyze broadcast meteorologists’ and emergency managers’ tropical cyclone decision and action timelines, their use of tropical cyclone information during different phases of threats, and gaps in forecast information for decision-making. Based on these findings, several opportunities for improving tropical cyclone risk communication were identified. Recommendations to address gaps in the NWS tropical cyclone product suite include designing improved ways to communicate storm-specific storm surge risk at greater than 48 h of lead time, expanding the use of concise highlights that help people quickly extract and understand key information, and improving product understandability and usability by more comprehensively integrating users’ perspectives into product research and development. Broader strategic recommendations include developing new approaches for informing broadcast meteorologists about major forecast updates, presenting forecast information in ways that enable locally relevant interpretation, and supporting human forecasters’ contributions to the effectiveness of NWS products and services. These findings and recommendations can help NOAA prioritize ways to modernize the current NWS tropical cyclone product suite as well as motivate research to enable longer-term high-priority improvements.
Significance Statement
Tropical cyclones pose significant risks to coastal and inland U.S. populations. This project aims to improve creation, communication, and use of tropical cyclone forecast and warning information by studying broadcast meteorologists’ and emergency managers’ information needs for decision-making during different phases of tropical cyclone threats. We identify several priority areas for improvement, including advancing longer-lead-time storm surge forecast communication, enhancing dissemination of forecast updates, and increasing use of concise text highlights. Additional findings include the importance of locally interpretable forecast information, the value of human forecasters in weather risk communication, and the need for iterative, user-informed forecast product development. These findings can help NOAA and the research community improve forecast communication and invest in research that facilitates continued improvements.
Abstract
As tropical cyclone threats evolve, broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers rely on timely forecast information to help them communicate risk with the public and protect public safety. This study aims to improve the usability and applicability of National Weather Service (NWS) forecast information in the context of these NWS core partners’ decisions during tropical cyclone threats. The research collected and analyzed data from in-depth interviews with broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers in three coastal U.S. states. These data were used to analyze broadcast meteorologists’ and emergency managers’ tropical cyclone decision and action timelines, their use of tropical cyclone information during different phases of threats, and gaps in forecast information for decision-making. Based on these findings, several opportunities for improving tropical cyclone risk communication were identified. Recommendations to address gaps in the NWS tropical cyclone product suite include designing improved ways to communicate storm-specific storm surge risk at greater than 48 h of lead time, expanding the use of concise highlights that help people quickly extract and understand key information, and improving product understandability and usability by more comprehensively integrating users’ perspectives into product research and development. Broader strategic recommendations include developing new approaches for informing broadcast meteorologists about major forecast updates, presenting forecast information in ways that enable locally relevant interpretation, and supporting human forecasters’ contributions to the effectiveness of NWS products and services. These findings and recommendations can help NOAA prioritize ways to modernize the current NWS tropical cyclone product suite as well as motivate research to enable longer-term high-priority improvements.
Significance Statement
Tropical cyclones pose significant risks to coastal and inland U.S. populations. This project aims to improve creation, communication, and use of tropical cyclone forecast and warning information by studying broadcast meteorologists’ and emergency managers’ information needs for decision-making during different phases of tropical cyclone threats. We identify several priority areas for improvement, including advancing longer-lead-time storm surge forecast communication, enhancing dissemination of forecast updates, and increasing use of concise text highlights. Additional findings include the importance of locally interpretable forecast information, the value of human forecasters in weather risk communication, and the need for iterative, user-informed forecast product development. These findings can help NOAA and the research community improve forecast communication and invest in research that facilitates continued improvements.
Abstract
Nomadic pastoral communities are considered some of the most vulnerable to climate change. While Indigenous knowledge can play an effective role in mitigating or responding to some impacts of climate change, the extent of their capacity to adapt their livestock and rangeland management is under question. This research aims to assess the scope and applicability of climate change–related knowledge acquired in the management of summer rangeland, with a case study in Semirom, Isfahan Province, Iran. To do so, objective weather conditions (precipitation, minimum temperatures, and maximum temperatures) were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and compared with subjective evaluations by nomad community members. Specifically, the study targeted a community of 7700 members of the Qashqai, a conglomeration of nomadic tribes in Iran. Their understanding of the weather was evaluated using focus groups and self-administered questionnaires, with a descriptive approach to data analysis. The findings of the climatic investigation revealed a possible shift in the climate in the study area, particularly in winter and autumn. The findings of subjective evaluation showed similar changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature to be the main characteristics of climate change in the region, with about 90% of informants directly citing decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature and wind speeds. The community evaluation also highlighted some adaptations to climate change, such as delays in beginning the seasonal migration, increased reliance on concrete homes, reservoir construction, decreasing livestock yields, and increasing diversification of resources to feed livestock. Understanding the perceptions of nomadic pastoralists, their meteorological basis, and ongoing climate adaptations can facilitate governmental planning.
Abstract
Nomadic pastoral communities are considered some of the most vulnerable to climate change. While Indigenous knowledge can play an effective role in mitigating or responding to some impacts of climate change, the extent of their capacity to adapt their livestock and rangeland management is under question. This research aims to assess the scope and applicability of climate change–related knowledge acquired in the management of summer rangeland, with a case study in Semirom, Isfahan Province, Iran. To do so, objective weather conditions (precipitation, minimum temperatures, and maximum temperatures) were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and compared with subjective evaluations by nomad community members. Specifically, the study targeted a community of 7700 members of the Qashqai, a conglomeration of nomadic tribes in Iran. Their understanding of the weather was evaluated using focus groups and self-administered questionnaires, with a descriptive approach to data analysis. The findings of the climatic investigation revealed a possible shift in the climate in the study area, particularly in winter and autumn. The findings of subjective evaluation showed similar changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature to be the main characteristics of climate change in the region, with about 90% of informants directly citing decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature and wind speeds. The community evaluation also highlighted some adaptations to climate change, such as delays in beginning the seasonal migration, increased reliance on concrete homes, reservoir construction, decreasing livestock yields, and increasing diversification of resources to feed livestock. Understanding the perceptions of nomadic pastoralists, their meteorological basis, and ongoing climate adaptations can facilitate governmental planning.
Abstract
Recent research has highlighted that adaptation tends to focus exclusively on the local and direct impacts of climate change and misses the crucial dimension of transboundary climate risk, which all countries are likely to face, irrespective of their level of development. This paper aims to improve the coverage of transboundary climate risk in case-study research for adaptation. It proposes a protocol to help researchers identify how their case studies can incorporate an analysis of transboundary climate risk, thereby supporting more holistic, effective, and just approaches to adaptation. Existing climate risk assessment frameworks and supporting guidelines have significant strengths but also various challenges when applied to the novel context of transboundary climate risk. This is illustrated with reference to the impact chain framework. Its opportunities pertain to both its flexible form and systems-first focus while its constraints include an analytic emphasis on linear cause–effect relationships (that bely the complexity and uncertainty of systemic risk) and its limited applicability to fragmented governance landscapes (in the absence of an effective consideration of risk ownership). After critically examining the suitability of the impact chain framework, a new protocol is introduced, which builds on principles for managing complex risk and frameworks for assessing risk ownership. The protocol is designed to enable case-study researchers to better identify, assess, and appraise transboundary climate risks, as well as enquire into appropriate risk owners and adaptation options across scales. The paper argues for more innovation in adaptation research to better reflect the complexity and interdependency that characterize today’s world.
Significance Statement
This work aims to demonstrate why the transboundary nature of climate risk requires a distinct analytical approach and proposes a seven-step guide that aims to facilitate the exploration of transboundary climate risk through case-study-based research for adaptation. Domestic climate risks continue to dominate the field of climate change research, translating into a significant blind spot in adaptation planning and action. Without the provision of practical guidance—to equip researchers with approaches and tools specifically designed to analyze the transboundary and systemic nature of climate risk—adaptation action will fail to offer sufficient protection against the full range of risks climate change presents. This article begins to address this void and ultimately—through greater recognition and understanding of transboundary climate risk—promote approaches to adaptation that are reflective of the interdependency of our world today and our shared and common future.
Abstract
Recent research has highlighted that adaptation tends to focus exclusively on the local and direct impacts of climate change and misses the crucial dimension of transboundary climate risk, which all countries are likely to face, irrespective of their level of development. This paper aims to improve the coverage of transboundary climate risk in case-study research for adaptation. It proposes a protocol to help researchers identify how their case studies can incorporate an analysis of transboundary climate risk, thereby supporting more holistic, effective, and just approaches to adaptation. Existing climate risk assessment frameworks and supporting guidelines have significant strengths but also various challenges when applied to the novel context of transboundary climate risk. This is illustrated with reference to the impact chain framework. Its opportunities pertain to both its flexible form and systems-first focus while its constraints include an analytic emphasis on linear cause–effect relationships (that bely the complexity and uncertainty of systemic risk) and its limited applicability to fragmented governance landscapes (in the absence of an effective consideration of risk ownership). After critically examining the suitability of the impact chain framework, a new protocol is introduced, which builds on principles for managing complex risk and frameworks for assessing risk ownership. The protocol is designed to enable case-study researchers to better identify, assess, and appraise transboundary climate risks, as well as enquire into appropriate risk owners and adaptation options across scales. The paper argues for more innovation in adaptation research to better reflect the complexity and interdependency that characterize today’s world.
Significance Statement
This work aims to demonstrate why the transboundary nature of climate risk requires a distinct analytical approach and proposes a seven-step guide that aims to facilitate the exploration of transboundary climate risk through case-study-based research for adaptation. Domestic climate risks continue to dominate the field of climate change research, translating into a significant blind spot in adaptation planning and action. Without the provision of practical guidance—to equip researchers with approaches and tools specifically designed to analyze the transboundary and systemic nature of climate risk—adaptation action will fail to offer sufficient protection against the full range of risks climate change presents. This article begins to address this void and ultimately—through greater recognition and understanding of transboundary climate risk—promote approaches to adaptation that are reflective of the interdependency of our world today and our shared and common future.
