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Abstract
Weather forecasts affect many persons’ lives and are used by the general public on a daily basis. However, they are not perfect, and there is an uncertainty associated with the current weather forecasts; users should be aware of this uncertainty. Previous research analyzes the perceptions, uses, and interpretations of uncertainty of Spanish undergraduate students. This study continues with this research line, but we investigate the degree of confidence and communication preferences of students enrolled in three meteorology-related subjects taught at two universities in Spain. We evaluated to what extent students trust in the current weather forecasts and analyzed how students are aware of the uncertainty associated with the forecasts considering different lead times. In addition, we assessed how students value the forecast of several weather elements as well as the students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts under two weather situations, with different degree of complexity in the forecast communication. A Google Form questionnaire was developed to address these issues. The survey was conducted in 2018/19, and 101 participants anonymously filled out the survey. Participants were enrolled in three different subjects taught in the degree in marine sciences at the University of Alicante and the degrees in environmental sciences and physics at the University of Valencia. Results show that students have a well-formed opinion of weather forecasts, both for confidence and in relation to the trend found in the current weather forecasts toward less accurate forecasts for larger lead times. For students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts, a significant majority of participants prefer weather forecasts that incorporate some uncertainty; a minority prefer single-valued (deterministic) forecasts. In comparing our results with those found in previous studies in different countries and contexts, similar outcomes are observed in general, but some differences are highlighted as well.
Abstract
Weather forecasts affect many persons’ lives and are used by the general public on a daily basis. However, they are not perfect, and there is an uncertainty associated with the current weather forecasts; users should be aware of this uncertainty. Previous research analyzes the perceptions, uses, and interpretations of uncertainty of Spanish undergraduate students. This study continues with this research line, but we investigate the degree of confidence and communication preferences of students enrolled in three meteorology-related subjects taught at two universities in Spain. We evaluated to what extent students trust in the current weather forecasts and analyzed how students are aware of the uncertainty associated with the forecasts considering different lead times. In addition, we assessed how students value the forecast of several weather elements as well as the students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts under two weather situations, with different degree of complexity in the forecast communication. A Google Form questionnaire was developed to address these issues. The survey was conducted in 2018/19, and 101 participants anonymously filled out the survey. Participants were enrolled in three different subjects taught in the degree in marine sciences at the University of Alicante and the degrees in environmental sciences and physics at the University of Valencia. Results show that students have a well-formed opinion of weather forecasts, both for confidence and in relation to the trend found in the current weather forecasts toward less accurate forecasts for larger lead times. For students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts, a significant majority of participants prefer weather forecasts that incorporate some uncertainty; a minority prefer single-valued (deterministic) forecasts. In comparing our results with those found in previous studies in different countries and contexts, similar outcomes are observed in general, but some differences are highlighted as well.
Abstract
On 31 May 2013, an extremely large and violent tornado hit near the town of El Reno, Oklahoma, a small town in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. The size and intensity of this tornado, coupled with the fact that it was heading toward Oklahoma City, prompted local broadcasters to warn residents to evacuate their homes and head south if they could not shelter belowground. This warning led to a large-scale evacuation of the metropolitan area and massive traffic jams on the interstates and major highways that could have caused casualties in the hundreds if the tornado had not dissipated before reaching Oklahoma City. The focus of this study was to understand the magnitude of the 31 May 2013 evacuation through the evaluation of traffic volume data and to determine how frequently such evacuations occur in Oklahoma City and other metropolitan areas. We found that of the six metropolitan areas tested, only Oklahoma City had mass anomalous traffic reversal (ATR) days (days with a mass evacuation signal) with 31 May 2013 having the largest mass ATR day by far. Despite the rarity of mass ATR days, the potential consequences of a large, violent tornado hitting gridlocked traffic is significant, and we recommend that communicators encourage more local sheltering options.
Significance Statement
On the evening of 31 May 2013, a large-scale evacuation of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area occurred as a result of a very large and dangerous tornado that had formed near the town of El Reno and was moving east toward Oklahoma City. If the tornado had not dissipated before it reached the city it could have caused hundreds of casualties as it passed over gridlocked roads. We sought to understand the frequency of such mass evacuations and found that no other event in six metropolitan areas studied during 2011–18 could compare. While such evacuations fortunately appear rare, more work should be done to understand why they happen when they do and to connect individuals with better local sheltering options.
Abstract
On 31 May 2013, an extremely large and violent tornado hit near the town of El Reno, Oklahoma, a small town in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. The size and intensity of this tornado, coupled with the fact that it was heading toward Oklahoma City, prompted local broadcasters to warn residents to evacuate their homes and head south if they could not shelter belowground. This warning led to a large-scale evacuation of the metropolitan area and massive traffic jams on the interstates and major highways that could have caused casualties in the hundreds if the tornado had not dissipated before reaching Oklahoma City. The focus of this study was to understand the magnitude of the 31 May 2013 evacuation through the evaluation of traffic volume data and to determine how frequently such evacuations occur in Oklahoma City and other metropolitan areas. We found that of the six metropolitan areas tested, only Oklahoma City had mass anomalous traffic reversal (ATR) days (days with a mass evacuation signal) with 31 May 2013 having the largest mass ATR day by far. Despite the rarity of mass ATR days, the potential consequences of a large, violent tornado hitting gridlocked traffic is significant, and we recommend that communicators encourage more local sheltering options.
Significance Statement
On the evening of 31 May 2013, a large-scale evacuation of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area occurred as a result of a very large and dangerous tornado that had formed near the town of El Reno and was moving east toward Oklahoma City. If the tornado had not dissipated before it reached the city it could have caused hundreds of casualties as it passed over gridlocked roads. We sought to understand the frequency of such mass evacuations and found that no other event in six metropolitan areas studied during 2011–18 could compare. While such evacuations fortunately appear rare, more work should be done to understand why they happen when they do and to connect individuals with better local sheltering options.
Abstract
Flood-induced fatalities are among the more poorly reported effects of flood disasters in many developing countries because of poor data inventory and management. Specific objectives of this study are to assess the spatial and temporal variations in flood fatalities in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. The study explored available datasets from the National (Nigerian) Meteorological and Emergency Management Agencies as well as those from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) at the University of Colorado Boulder and complemented those with scattered reports from Nigerian newspapers to achieve the stated objectives. Using a mix of statistical and geographical information analysis approaches, the study showed that most of Nigeria is vulnerable to flood, given the nature of the dominant climate that often results in “medium” to “high” rainfall intensity (i.e., rainfall = 38.1–50.1 mm or > 50.1 mm in 24 h, respectively), inadequate settlement planning/land-use and land-cover management, and dam failure. Analysis of the frequency of the flood–fatality relationship indicates an increase in flood fatalities by 4.7% relative to flood cases between 1985 and 2017. The study complemented the results with information from newspapers and some other non-peer-reviewed documents (especially reports from relevant agencies) and revealed the need for a better flood information management system in the country, especially since the national database and DFO records were not the same. The study concluded that flood fatalities are on the increase but are poorly reported. It thus recommends improved information systems for flood and other disasters and their fatalities in the country.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to reveal the state of information on flood disasters in a typical sub-Saharan African country. This is important because information about the distribution and trend of fatalities associated with flood disasters is required for sustainable mitigation planning globally. Our results provide a guide to understanding the distribution and associated factors of flood disasters as well as the contributions of informal (newspaper) sources to the inventory of relevant records.
Abstract
Flood-induced fatalities are among the more poorly reported effects of flood disasters in many developing countries because of poor data inventory and management. Specific objectives of this study are to assess the spatial and temporal variations in flood fatalities in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. The study explored available datasets from the National (Nigerian) Meteorological and Emergency Management Agencies as well as those from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) at the University of Colorado Boulder and complemented those with scattered reports from Nigerian newspapers to achieve the stated objectives. Using a mix of statistical and geographical information analysis approaches, the study showed that most of Nigeria is vulnerable to flood, given the nature of the dominant climate that often results in “medium” to “high” rainfall intensity (i.e., rainfall = 38.1–50.1 mm or > 50.1 mm in 24 h, respectively), inadequate settlement planning/land-use and land-cover management, and dam failure. Analysis of the frequency of the flood–fatality relationship indicates an increase in flood fatalities by 4.7% relative to flood cases between 1985 and 2017. The study complemented the results with information from newspapers and some other non-peer-reviewed documents (especially reports from relevant agencies) and revealed the need for a better flood information management system in the country, especially since the national database and DFO records were not the same. The study concluded that flood fatalities are on the increase but are poorly reported. It thus recommends improved information systems for flood and other disasters and their fatalities in the country.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to reveal the state of information on flood disasters in a typical sub-Saharan African country. This is important because information about the distribution and trend of fatalities associated with flood disasters is required for sustainable mitigation planning globally. Our results provide a guide to understanding the distribution and associated factors of flood disasters as well as the contributions of informal (newspaper) sources to the inventory of relevant records.
Abstract
Weather warnings are critical risk communication messages because they have the potential to save lives and property during emergencies. However, making warning decisions is challenging. While there have been significant advances in technological weather forecasting, recent research suggests that social factors, including communication, influence warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn. We examine the roles of both scientific and social factors in predicting warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn on tornadoes. To do so, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of National Weather Service forecasters and members of management in the southern and the central regions of the United States, as well as conducted a retrospective data analysis of cross-sectional survey data from the central region Tornado Warning Improvement Project. Results reveal that dependency on radar velocity couplet and a variety of social factors predicted decisions to warn.
Abstract
Weather warnings are critical risk communication messages because they have the potential to save lives and property during emergencies. However, making warning decisions is challenging. While there have been significant advances in technological weather forecasting, recent research suggests that social factors, including communication, influence warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn. We examine the roles of both scientific and social factors in predicting warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn on tornadoes. To do so, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of National Weather Service forecasters and members of management in the southern and the central regions of the United States, as well as conducted a retrospective data analysis of cross-sectional survey data from the central region Tornado Warning Improvement Project. Results reveal that dependency on radar velocity couplet and a variety of social factors predicted decisions to warn.
Abstract
Forests are considered the key factor in controlling climate change and extreme climatic events due to their natural role in carbon abatement. However, twenty-first-century economic development is characterized by intensive resource exploitation, energy intensity, population, and urbanization, and hence it is affecting the natural forest habitat. The persistent deforestation and land degradation with limited sustainable forest management and its related services have long-term effects on environmental sustainability. Here, we investigate the impact of forest and its related services on the past decade of China’s carbon emissions while accounting for economic development, urbanization, and fossil fuels. We use several spatial techniques to ascertain the carbon abatement effect of the forestry-driven economy in halting the ecological degradation process. We report that carbon emissions decline across 30 provinces in China through the expansion of forest investment and forest management activities—instead of increasing the forest land without continuous proper management. Besides, the spatial analysis confirms that forest investments and proper management contribute to reducing carbon levels in neighboring provinces. From a policy point of view, it is more than an urgent need for the Chinese government to conduct forest management reforms, and such policies might be helpful to generate new sources of employment and pollution reduction in China.
Abstract
Forests are considered the key factor in controlling climate change and extreme climatic events due to their natural role in carbon abatement. However, twenty-first-century economic development is characterized by intensive resource exploitation, energy intensity, population, and urbanization, and hence it is affecting the natural forest habitat. The persistent deforestation and land degradation with limited sustainable forest management and its related services have long-term effects on environmental sustainability. Here, we investigate the impact of forest and its related services on the past decade of China’s carbon emissions while accounting for economic development, urbanization, and fossil fuels. We use several spatial techniques to ascertain the carbon abatement effect of the forestry-driven economy in halting the ecological degradation process. We report that carbon emissions decline across 30 provinces in China through the expansion of forest investment and forest management activities—instead of increasing the forest land without continuous proper management. Besides, the spatial analysis confirms that forest investments and proper management contribute to reducing carbon levels in neighboring provinces. From a policy point of view, it is more than an urgent need for the Chinese government to conduct forest management reforms, and such policies might be helpful to generate new sources of employment and pollution reduction in China.
Abstract
For many people living in low-income coastal communities, marine resources provide a crucial source of animal protein and are of major nutritional importance. However, because of various human-induced pressures, such as overfishing and poor resource management, marine resources are deteriorating at an unprecedented rate. Climate change effects this dynamic by contributing directly to marine resource deterioration and acting as an effect multiplier, worsening already-present problems in the systems. This deterioration threatens the viability of marine resources to support future food security demands and presents multiple health implications for coastal communities that rely upon these resources. This research used a narrative review to explore how the impacts of climate change are projected to impact human health and sustainable development throughout subsistence fishing communities. A case study approach focusing on the Pacific Ocean region of Micronesia was conducted to provide a practical indication of the future scenario applicable to other geographical regions across the globe. The results indicate that climate change is likely to exacerbate adverse health outcomes such as food insecurity, ciguatera fish poisoning, heatstroke, and mental health problems and that climate change may lead to the deterioration of traditional cultural practices. As the climate crisis is happening now and will be an issue extending into the foreseeable future, it is necessary to implement adaptation strategies, funding, and governance to limit global emissions, preserve marine resources, and support human well-being. Therefore, this research details adaptation strategies, such as diversifying fish catch and reviving traditional postharvest preservation methods, that may help communities adapt to climate change.
Significance Statement
The Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021) has indicated that marine resources are deteriorating at an unprecedented rate across all regions of the globe. As marine resources significantly contribute to feeding coastal–semisubsistence communities, it is beneficial to understand how this deterioration will affect human health. Thus, this research indicates that declines in marine resources may exacerbate the prevalence of food insecurity, ciguatera fish poisoning, heat-related illnesses, mental health problems, and chronic diseases within marine-dependent communities. Furthermore, this research details adaptation strategies such as diversifying fish catch, improving postharvest preservation methods, and offering counseling services, which may help support the health and well-being of marine-dependent communities.
Abstract
For many people living in low-income coastal communities, marine resources provide a crucial source of animal protein and are of major nutritional importance. However, because of various human-induced pressures, such as overfishing and poor resource management, marine resources are deteriorating at an unprecedented rate. Climate change effects this dynamic by contributing directly to marine resource deterioration and acting as an effect multiplier, worsening already-present problems in the systems. This deterioration threatens the viability of marine resources to support future food security demands and presents multiple health implications for coastal communities that rely upon these resources. This research used a narrative review to explore how the impacts of climate change are projected to impact human health and sustainable development throughout subsistence fishing communities. A case study approach focusing on the Pacific Ocean region of Micronesia was conducted to provide a practical indication of the future scenario applicable to other geographical regions across the globe. The results indicate that climate change is likely to exacerbate adverse health outcomes such as food insecurity, ciguatera fish poisoning, heatstroke, and mental health problems and that climate change may lead to the deterioration of traditional cultural practices. As the climate crisis is happening now and will be an issue extending into the foreseeable future, it is necessary to implement adaptation strategies, funding, and governance to limit global emissions, preserve marine resources, and support human well-being. Therefore, this research details adaptation strategies, such as diversifying fish catch and reviving traditional postharvest preservation methods, that may help communities adapt to climate change.
Significance Statement
The Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021) has indicated that marine resources are deteriorating at an unprecedented rate across all regions of the globe. As marine resources significantly contribute to feeding coastal–semisubsistence communities, it is beneficial to understand how this deterioration will affect human health. Thus, this research indicates that declines in marine resources may exacerbate the prevalence of food insecurity, ciguatera fish poisoning, heat-related illnesses, mental health problems, and chronic diseases within marine-dependent communities. Furthermore, this research details adaptation strategies such as diversifying fish catch, improving postharvest preservation methods, and offering counseling services, which may help support the health and well-being of marine-dependent communities.
Abstract
People’s observations of climate change and its impacts, mediated by cultures and capacities, shape adaptive responses. Adaptation is critical in regions of rainfed smallholder agriculture where changing rainfall patterns have disproportionate impacts on livelihoods, yet scientific climate data to inform responses are often sparse. Despite calls for better integration of local knowledge into adaptation frameworks, there is a lack of empirical evidence linking both smallholder climate observations and scientific data to on-farm outcomes. We combine smallholder observations of past seasonal rainfall timing with satellite-based rainfall estimates in Uganda to explore whether farmers’ ability to track climate patterns is associated with higher crop yields. We show that high-fidelity tracking, or alignment of farmer recall with recent rainfall patterns, predicts higher yields in the present year, suggesting that farmers may translate their cumulative record of environmental knowledge into productive on-farm decisions, such as crop selection and timing of planting. However, tracking of less-recent rainfall (i.e., 1–2 decades in the past) does not predict higher yields in the present, while climate data indicate significant trends over this period toward warmer and wetter seasons. Our findings demonstrate the value of smallholder knowledge systems in filling information gaps in climate science while suggesting ways to improve adaptive capacity to climate change.
Abstract
People’s observations of climate change and its impacts, mediated by cultures and capacities, shape adaptive responses. Adaptation is critical in regions of rainfed smallholder agriculture where changing rainfall patterns have disproportionate impacts on livelihoods, yet scientific climate data to inform responses are often sparse. Despite calls for better integration of local knowledge into adaptation frameworks, there is a lack of empirical evidence linking both smallholder climate observations and scientific data to on-farm outcomes. We combine smallholder observations of past seasonal rainfall timing with satellite-based rainfall estimates in Uganda to explore whether farmers’ ability to track climate patterns is associated with higher crop yields. We show that high-fidelity tracking, or alignment of farmer recall with recent rainfall patterns, predicts higher yields in the present year, suggesting that farmers may translate their cumulative record of environmental knowledge into productive on-farm decisions, such as crop selection and timing of planting. However, tracking of less-recent rainfall (i.e., 1–2 decades in the past) does not predict higher yields in the present, while climate data indicate significant trends over this period toward warmer and wetter seasons. Our findings demonstrate the value of smallholder knowledge systems in filling information gaps in climate science while suggesting ways to improve adaptive capacity to climate change.
Abstract
Oklahoma’s First-response Information Resource System using Telecommunications (OK-First) has been used for over 25 years to provide education, training, connections, and follow-up support for public safety officials with emergency management responsibilities in Oklahoma. Public safety officials use OK-First training and Oklahoma Mesonet tools to plan and make decisions to save lives and property. However, like most public systems, little is known about user interactions with tools, decisions made, and estimated savings using a weather decision support system. This study used a mixed approach to collect and analyze data from three key sources to assess the perceptions, beneficiaries, and applications of weather support systems for public safety officials. Results showed that a diverse set of tools were needed and used by public safety officials to make decisions in hazardous weather conditions. OK-First tools resulted in estimated self-reported cost savings of over $1.2 million for 12 months. This study provides a crucial step in determining user interactions with tools, training, and services to better understand weather decision support systems used during hazardous weather.
Abstract
Oklahoma’s First-response Information Resource System using Telecommunications (OK-First) has been used for over 25 years to provide education, training, connections, and follow-up support for public safety officials with emergency management responsibilities in Oklahoma. Public safety officials use OK-First training and Oklahoma Mesonet tools to plan and make decisions to save lives and property. However, like most public systems, little is known about user interactions with tools, decisions made, and estimated savings using a weather decision support system. This study used a mixed approach to collect and analyze data from three key sources to assess the perceptions, beneficiaries, and applications of weather support systems for public safety officials. Results showed that a diverse set of tools were needed and used by public safety officials to make decisions in hazardous weather conditions. OK-First tools resulted in estimated self-reported cost savings of over $1.2 million for 12 months. This study provides a crucial step in determining user interactions with tools, training, and services to better understand weather decision support systems used during hazardous weather.
Abstract
Television station and on-air talent marketing and branding has been studied with increasing attention because there is recognition that the people are part of an overall brand strategy. In this paper, we focus on broadcast meteorologists and their views of their personal brands and how those work to engage audiences. With Hurricane Dorian in 2019 as the background major weather event, the paper focuses on how on-air meteorologists develop their brand identities. From these interviews, we find 1) personal branding to build trust is paramount, 2) social media are game changers for personal branding, and 3) station branding can influence personal branding. Our findings shed light on the tension some on-air meteorologists experience when seeing themselves as a commodity while also trying to build trust as an expert crisis communicator.
Significance Statement
The purpose of our study is to examine how on-air meteorologists understand the role that personal branding plays—if any at all—in helping them deliver information to viewers. In previous research, Daniels and Loggins noted that, as the landscape for communicating lifesaving information changes, understanding how on-air meteorologists understand their roles and personal identities becomes paramount. If weather is a product, the people delivering the information become part of the product and overall brand strategy, according to Daniels and Loggins. Our exploratory study indicates that personal branding poses some opportunities and challenges for on-air meteorologists, who sometimes see an internal conflict between station branding strategies and their roles as scientists.
Abstract
Television station and on-air talent marketing and branding has been studied with increasing attention because there is recognition that the people are part of an overall brand strategy. In this paper, we focus on broadcast meteorologists and their views of their personal brands and how those work to engage audiences. With Hurricane Dorian in 2019 as the background major weather event, the paper focuses on how on-air meteorologists develop their brand identities. From these interviews, we find 1) personal branding to build trust is paramount, 2) social media are game changers for personal branding, and 3) station branding can influence personal branding. Our findings shed light on the tension some on-air meteorologists experience when seeing themselves as a commodity while also trying to build trust as an expert crisis communicator.
Significance Statement
The purpose of our study is to examine how on-air meteorologists understand the role that personal branding plays—if any at all—in helping them deliver information to viewers. In previous research, Daniels and Loggins noted that, as the landscape for communicating lifesaving information changes, understanding how on-air meteorologists understand their roles and personal identities becomes paramount. If weather is a product, the people delivering the information become part of the product and overall brand strategy, according to Daniels and Loggins. Our exploratory study indicates that personal branding poses some opportunities and challenges for on-air meteorologists, who sometimes see an internal conflict between station branding strategies and their roles as scientists.
