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Abstract
We use a spectral-based approach that employs principal component analysis along with a relatively shallow artificial neural network (NN) to substantially reduce noise and other artifacts in terrestrial chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) retrievals. SIF is a very small emission at red and far-red wavelengths that is difficult to measure and is highly sensitive to random errors and systematic artifacts. Our approach relies upon an assumption that a trained NN can effectively reconstruct the total SIF signal from a relatively small number of leading principal components of the satellite-observed far-red radiance spectra without using information from the trailing modes that contain most of the random errors. We test the approach with simulated reflectance spectra produced with a full atmospheric and surface radiative transfer model using different observing and geophysical parameters and various noise levels. The resulting noisy and noise-reduced retrieved SIF values are compared with true values to assess performance. We then apply our noise reduction approach to SIF derived from two different satellite spectrometers. For evaluation, since the truth in this case is unknown, we compare SIF retrievals from two independent sensors with each other. We also compare the noise-reduced SIF temporal variations with those from an independent gross primary product (GPP) product that should display similar variations. Results show that our noise reduction approach improves the capture of SIF seasonal and interannual variability. Our approach should be applicable to many noisy data products derived from spectral measurements. Our methodology does not replace the original retrieval algorithms; rather, the original noisy retrievals are needed as the target for the NN training process.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to document and demonstrate a machine learning algorithm that is used to effectively reduce noise and artifacts in a satellite data product, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from chlorophyll. This is important because SIF retrievals are typically noisy, and the noise limits their ability to be used for diagnosing plant health and productivity. Our results show substantial improvement in SIF retrievals that may lead to new applications. Our approach can be similarly applied to other noisy satellite data products.
Abstract
We use a spectral-based approach that employs principal component analysis along with a relatively shallow artificial neural network (NN) to substantially reduce noise and other artifacts in terrestrial chlorophyll solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) retrievals. SIF is a very small emission at red and far-red wavelengths that is difficult to measure and is highly sensitive to random errors and systematic artifacts. Our approach relies upon an assumption that a trained NN can effectively reconstruct the total SIF signal from a relatively small number of leading principal components of the satellite-observed far-red radiance spectra without using information from the trailing modes that contain most of the random errors. We test the approach with simulated reflectance spectra produced with a full atmospheric and surface radiative transfer model using different observing and geophysical parameters and various noise levels. The resulting noisy and noise-reduced retrieved SIF values are compared with true values to assess performance. We then apply our noise reduction approach to SIF derived from two different satellite spectrometers. For evaluation, since the truth in this case is unknown, we compare SIF retrievals from two independent sensors with each other. We also compare the noise-reduced SIF temporal variations with those from an independent gross primary product (GPP) product that should display similar variations. Results show that our noise reduction approach improves the capture of SIF seasonal and interannual variability. Our approach should be applicable to many noisy data products derived from spectral measurements. Our methodology does not replace the original retrieval algorithms; rather, the original noisy retrievals are needed as the target for the NN training process.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to document and demonstrate a machine learning algorithm that is used to effectively reduce noise and artifacts in a satellite data product, solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) from chlorophyll. This is important because SIF retrievals are typically noisy, and the noise limits their ability to be used for diagnosing plant health and productivity. Our results show substantial improvement in SIF retrievals that may lead to new applications. Our approach can be similarly applied to other noisy satellite data products.
Abstract
The safe and efficient execution of offshore operations requires short-term (1–6 h ahead) high-quality probabilistic forecasts of metocean variables. The development areas for offshore wind projects, potentially in high depths, make it difficult to gather measurement data. This paper explores the use of deep learning for wind speed forecasting at an unobserved offshore location. The proposed convolutional architecture jointly exploits coastal measurements and numerical weather predictions to emulate multivariate probabilistic short-term forecasts. We explore both Gaussian and non-Gaussian neural representations using normalizing flows. We benchmark these approaches with respect to state-of-the-art data-driven schemes, including analog methods and quantile forecasting. The performance of the models and resulting forecast quality are analyzed in terms of probabilistic calibration, probabilistic and deterministic metrics, and as a function of weather situations. We report numerical experiments for a real case study off the French Mediterranean coast. Our results highlight the role of regional numerical weather prediction and coastal in situ measurement in the performance of postprocessing. For single-valued forecasts, a 40% decrease in RMSE is observed compared to the direct use of numerical weather predictions. Significant skill improvements are also obtained for the probabilistic forecasts, in terms of various scores, as well as an acceptable probabilistic calibration. The proposed architecture can process a large amount of heterogeneous input data and offers a versatile probabilistic framework for multivariate forecasting.
Abstract
The safe and efficient execution of offshore operations requires short-term (1–6 h ahead) high-quality probabilistic forecasts of metocean variables. The development areas for offshore wind projects, potentially in high depths, make it difficult to gather measurement data. This paper explores the use of deep learning for wind speed forecasting at an unobserved offshore location. The proposed convolutional architecture jointly exploits coastal measurements and numerical weather predictions to emulate multivariate probabilistic short-term forecasts. We explore both Gaussian and non-Gaussian neural representations using normalizing flows. We benchmark these approaches with respect to state-of-the-art data-driven schemes, including analog methods and quantile forecasting. The performance of the models and resulting forecast quality are analyzed in terms of probabilistic calibration, probabilistic and deterministic metrics, and as a function of weather situations. We report numerical experiments for a real case study off the French Mediterranean coast. Our results highlight the role of regional numerical weather prediction and coastal in situ measurement in the performance of postprocessing. For single-valued forecasts, a 40% decrease in RMSE is observed compared to the direct use of numerical weather predictions. Significant skill improvements are also obtained for the probabilistic forecasts, in terms of various scores, as well as an acceptable probabilistic calibration. The proposed architecture can process a large amount of heterogeneous input data and offers a versatile probabilistic framework for multivariate forecasting.
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) has rapidly transitioned from a niche activity to a mainstream tool for environmental research applications including atmospheric science cloud microphysics studies. Two recently developed cloud particle probes measure the light scattered in the near forward direction and save digital images of the scattering light. Scattering pattern images collected by the Particle Phase Discriminator mark 2, Karlsruhe edition (PPD-2K), and the Small Ice Detector, version 3 (SID-3) provide valuable information for particle shape and size characterization. Since different particle shapes have distinctly different light scattering characteristics, the images are ideally suited for ML. Here, results of a ML project to characterize ice particle shapes sampled by the PPD-2K in ice fog and diamond dust during a 3-yr project in Fairbanks, Alaska. About 2.15 million light-scattering pattern images were collected during 3 years of measurements with the PPD-2K. Visual Geometry Group (VGG) convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained to categorize light-scattering patterns into eight categories. Initial training images (120 each category) were selected by human visual examination of data, and the training dataset was augmented using an automated iterative method for image identification of further images which were all visually inspected by a human. Results were well correlated to similar categories identified from previously developed classification algorithms. ML identifies characteristics not included in automated analysis such as sublimation. Of the 2.15 million images analyzed, 1.3% were categorized as spherical (liquid), 43.5% were categorized as having rough surfaces, 15.3% were pristine, 16.3% were categorized as sublimating, and the remaining 23.6% did not fit into any of those categories (irregular or saturated).
Significance Statement
The shapes and sizes of cloud particles can be extremely important for understanding the conditions that exist in the cloud. In this study, we show that more information about cloud particle characteristics can be identified by using machine learning than by traditional means. To demonstrate this, data are analyzed from a 3-yr study of ice fog and diamond dust events in Fairbanks, Alaska. The Particle Phase Discriminator instrument collected 2.15 million light-scattering pattern images of cloud particles during ground-based measurements. Neither traditional techniques nor machine learning were able to identify all categories, but a combination of both techniques led to a more complete view of ice particle shapes.
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) has rapidly transitioned from a niche activity to a mainstream tool for environmental research applications including atmospheric science cloud microphysics studies. Two recently developed cloud particle probes measure the light scattered in the near forward direction and save digital images of the scattering light. Scattering pattern images collected by the Particle Phase Discriminator mark 2, Karlsruhe edition (PPD-2K), and the Small Ice Detector, version 3 (SID-3) provide valuable information for particle shape and size characterization. Since different particle shapes have distinctly different light scattering characteristics, the images are ideally suited for ML. Here, results of a ML project to characterize ice particle shapes sampled by the PPD-2K in ice fog and diamond dust during a 3-yr project in Fairbanks, Alaska. About 2.15 million light-scattering pattern images were collected during 3 years of measurements with the PPD-2K. Visual Geometry Group (VGG) convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained to categorize light-scattering patterns into eight categories. Initial training images (120 each category) were selected by human visual examination of data, and the training dataset was augmented using an automated iterative method for image identification of further images which were all visually inspected by a human. Results were well correlated to similar categories identified from previously developed classification algorithms. ML identifies characteristics not included in automated analysis such as sublimation. Of the 2.15 million images analyzed, 1.3% were categorized as spherical (liquid), 43.5% were categorized as having rough surfaces, 15.3% were pristine, 16.3% were categorized as sublimating, and the remaining 23.6% did not fit into any of those categories (irregular or saturated).
Significance Statement
The shapes and sizes of cloud particles can be extremely important for understanding the conditions that exist in the cloud. In this study, we show that more information about cloud particle characteristics can be identified by using machine learning than by traditional means. To demonstrate this, data are analyzed from a 3-yr study of ice fog and diamond dust events in Fairbanks, Alaska. The Particle Phase Discriminator instrument collected 2.15 million light-scattering pattern images of cloud particles during ground-based measurements. Neither traditional techniques nor machine learning were able to identify all categories, but a combination of both techniques led to a more complete view of ice particle shapes.
Abstract
Convective initiation (CI) nowcasting remains a challenging problem for both numerical weather prediction models and existing nowcasting algorithms. In this study, an object-based probabilistic deep learning model is developed to predict CI based on multichannel infrared GOES-16 satellite observations. The data come from patches surrounding potential CI events identified in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Doppler weather radar products over the Great Plains region from June and July 2020 and June 2021. An objective radar-based approach is used to identify these events. The deep learning model significantly outperforms the classical logistic model at lead times up to 1 h, especially on the false alarm ratio. Through case studies, the deep learning model exhibits dependence on the characteristics of clouds and moisture at multiple altitudes. Model explanation further reveals that the contribution of features to model predictions is significantly dependent on the baseline, a reference point against which the prediction is compared. Under a moist baseline, moisture gradients in the lower and middle troposphere contribute most to correct CI forecasts. In contrast, under a clear-sky baseline, correct CI forecasts are dominated by cloud-top features, including cloud-top glaciation, height, and cloud coverage. Our study demonstrates the advantage of using different baselines in further understanding model behavior and gaining scientific insights.
Abstract
Convective initiation (CI) nowcasting remains a challenging problem for both numerical weather prediction models and existing nowcasting algorithms. In this study, an object-based probabilistic deep learning model is developed to predict CI based on multichannel infrared GOES-16 satellite observations. The data come from patches surrounding potential CI events identified in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor Doppler weather radar products over the Great Plains region from June and July 2020 and June 2021. An objective radar-based approach is used to identify these events. The deep learning model significantly outperforms the classical logistic model at lead times up to 1 h, especially on the false alarm ratio. Through case studies, the deep learning model exhibits dependence on the characteristics of clouds and moisture at multiple altitudes. Model explanation further reveals that the contribution of features to model predictions is significantly dependent on the baseline, a reference point against which the prediction is compared. Under a moist baseline, moisture gradients in the lower and middle troposphere contribute most to correct CI forecasts. In contrast, under a clear-sky baseline, correct CI forecasts are dominated by cloud-top features, including cloud-top glaciation, height, and cloud coverage. Our study demonstrates the advantage of using different baselines in further understanding model behavior and gaining scientific insights.
Abstract
The complexity of growing spatiotemporal resolution of climate simulations produces a variety of climate patterns under different projection scenarios. This paper proposes a new data-driven climate classification workflow via an unsupervised deep learning technique that can dimensionally reduce the vast volume of spatiotemporal numerical climate projection data into a compact representation. We aim to identify distinct zones that capture multiple climate variables as well as their future changes under different climate change scenarios. Our approach leverages convolutional autoencoders combined with k-means clustering (standard autoencoder) and online clustering based on the Sinkhorn–Knopp algorithm (clustering autoencoder) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to capture unique climate patterns in a data-driven fashion from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with GOLD component (GFDL-ESM2G). The developed approach compresses 70 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation at 0.125° spatial resolution across the CONUS under multiple warming scenarios to a lower-dimensional space by a factor of 660 000 and then tested on 150 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation data. The results show that five climate clusters capture physically reasonable and spatially stable climatological patterns matched to known climate classes defined by human experts. Results also show that using a clustering autoencoder can reduce the computational time for clustering by up to 9.2 times when compared to using a standard autoencoder. Our five unique climate patterns resulting from the deep learning–based clustering of the lower-dimensional space thereby enable us to provide insights on hydrometeorology and its spatial heterogeneity across the conterminous United States immediately without downloading large climate datasets.
Significance Statement
This paper presents a data-driven climate classification approach using unsupervised deep learning to dimensionally reduce climate model outputs and to identify distinct climate regions for their future changes. Our approach compresses climate information for 70 years of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model data across the conterminous United States (CONUS) at 0.125° spatial resolution. The results reveal that five climate clusters capture reasonable and stable climatological patterns matched to known climate patterns. The embedded clustering process in deep learning provides ×9.2 times faster execution than the k-means clustering technique. These results give us insight about climate spatial patterns and heterogeneity of hydrological patterns across the conterminous United States without downloading large climate datasets.
Abstract
The complexity of growing spatiotemporal resolution of climate simulations produces a variety of climate patterns under different projection scenarios. This paper proposes a new data-driven climate classification workflow via an unsupervised deep learning technique that can dimensionally reduce the vast volume of spatiotemporal numerical climate projection data into a compact representation. We aim to identify distinct zones that capture multiple climate variables as well as their future changes under different climate change scenarios. Our approach leverages convolutional autoencoders combined with k-means clustering (standard autoencoder) and online clustering based on the Sinkhorn–Knopp algorithm (clustering autoencoder) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) to capture unique climate patterns in a data-driven fashion from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with GOLD component (GFDL-ESM2G). The developed approach compresses 70 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation at 0.125° spatial resolution across the CONUS under multiple warming scenarios to a lower-dimensional space by a factor of 660 000 and then tested on 150 years of GFDL-ESM2G simulation data. The results show that five climate clusters capture physically reasonable and spatially stable climatological patterns matched to known climate classes defined by human experts. Results also show that using a clustering autoencoder can reduce the computational time for clustering by up to 9.2 times when compared to using a standard autoencoder. Our five unique climate patterns resulting from the deep learning–based clustering of the lower-dimensional space thereby enable us to provide insights on hydrometeorology and its spatial heterogeneity across the conterminous United States immediately without downloading large climate datasets.
Significance Statement
This paper presents a data-driven climate classification approach using unsupervised deep learning to dimensionally reduce climate model outputs and to identify distinct climate regions for their future changes. Our approach compresses climate information for 70 years of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model data across the conterminous United States (CONUS) at 0.125° spatial resolution. The results reveal that five climate clusters capture reasonable and stable climatological patterns matched to known climate patterns. The embedded clustering process in deep learning provides ×9.2 times faster execution than the k-means clustering technique. These results give us insight about climate spatial patterns and heterogeneity of hydrological patterns across the conterminous United States without downloading large climate datasets.
Abstract
Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity.
Significance Statement
Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.
Abstract
Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity.
Significance Statement
Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.
Abstract
This study introduces an ensemble learning model for the prediction of significant wave height and average wave period in stations along the U.S. Atlantic coast. The model utilizes the stacking method, combining three base learner models—least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, support vector machine, and multilayer perceptron—to achieve more precise and robust predictions. To train and evaluate the models, a 20-yr dataset comprising meteorological and wave data was used, enabling forecasts for significant wave height and average wave period at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-h intervals. The data collection involved two NOAA buoy stations situated on the U.S. Atlantic coast. The findings demonstrate that the ensemble learning model constructed through the stacking method yields significantly higher accuracy in predicting significant wave height within the specified time intervals. Moreover, the study investigates the influence of swell waves on forecasting significant wave height and average wave period. Notably, the inclusion of swell waves improves the accuracy of the 12-h forecast. Consequently, the developed ensemble model effectively estimates both significant wave height and average wave period. The ensemble model outperforms the individual models in forecasting significant wave height and average wave period. This ensemble learning model serves as a viable alternative to conventional coastal models for predicting wave parameters.
Abstract
This study introduces an ensemble learning model for the prediction of significant wave height and average wave period in stations along the U.S. Atlantic coast. The model utilizes the stacking method, combining three base learner models—least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, support vector machine, and multilayer perceptron—to achieve more precise and robust predictions. To train and evaluate the models, a 20-yr dataset comprising meteorological and wave data was used, enabling forecasts for significant wave height and average wave period at 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-h intervals. The data collection involved two NOAA buoy stations situated on the U.S. Atlantic coast. The findings demonstrate that the ensemble learning model constructed through the stacking method yields significantly higher accuracy in predicting significant wave height within the specified time intervals. Moreover, the study investigates the influence of swell waves on forecasting significant wave height and average wave period. Notably, the inclusion of swell waves improves the accuracy of the 12-h forecast. Consequently, the developed ensemble model effectively estimates both significant wave height and average wave period. The ensemble model outperforms the individual models in forecasting significant wave height and average wave period. This ensemble learning model serves as a viable alternative to conventional coastal models for predicting wave parameters.
Abstract
Meteorological satellite imagery is a critical asset for observing and forecasting weather phenomena. The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day–Night Band (DNB) sensor collects measurements from moonlight, airglow, and artificial lights. DNB radiances are then manipulated and scaled with a focus on digital display. DNB imagery performance is tied to the lunar cycle, with the best performance during the full moon and the worst with the new moon. We propose using feed-forward neural network models to transform brightness temperatures and wavelength differences in the infrared spectrum to a pseudo-lunar reflectance value based on lunar reflectance values derived from observed DNB radiances. JPSS NOAA-20 and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite data over the North Pacific Ocean at night for full moon periods from December 2018 to November 2020 were used to design the models. The pseudo-lunar reflectance values are quantitatively compared to DNB lunar reflectance, providing the first-ever lunar reflectance baseline metrics. The resulting imagery product, Machine Learning Nighttime Visible Imagery (ML-NVI), is qualitatively compared to DNB lunar reflectance and infrared imagery across the lunar cycle. The imagery goal is not only to improve upon the consistent performance of DNB imagery products across the lunar cycle, but ultimately to lay the foundation for transitioning the algorithm to geostationary sensors, making global continuous nighttime imagery possible. ML-NVI demonstrates its ability to provide DNB-derived imagery with consistent contrast and representation of clouds across the full lunar cycle for nighttime cloud detection.
Significance Statement
This study explores the creation and evaluation of a feed-forward neural network to generate synthetic lunar reflectance values and imagery from VIIRS infrared channels. The model creates lunar reflectance values typical of full moon scenes, enabling quantifiable comparisons for nighttime imagery evaluations. Additionally, it creates imagery that highlights low clouds better than its infrared counterparts. Results indicate the ability to create visually consistent nighttime visible imagery across the full lunar cycle for the improved nighttime detection of low clouds. Wavelengths chosen are available on both polar and geostationary satellite sensors to support the utilization of the algorithm on multiple sensor platforms for improved temporal resolution and greater simultaneous geographic coverage over polar orbiters alone.
Abstract
Meteorological satellite imagery is a critical asset for observing and forecasting weather phenomena. The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day–Night Band (DNB) sensor collects measurements from moonlight, airglow, and artificial lights. DNB radiances are then manipulated and scaled with a focus on digital display. DNB imagery performance is tied to the lunar cycle, with the best performance during the full moon and the worst with the new moon. We propose using feed-forward neural network models to transform brightness temperatures and wavelength differences in the infrared spectrum to a pseudo-lunar reflectance value based on lunar reflectance values derived from observed DNB radiances. JPSS NOAA-20 and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite data over the North Pacific Ocean at night for full moon periods from December 2018 to November 2020 were used to design the models. The pseudo-lunar reflectance values are quantitatively compared to DNB lunar reflectance, providing the first-ever lunar reflectance baseline metrics. The resulting imagery product, Machine Learning Nighttime Visible Imagery (ML-NVI), is qualitatively compared to DNB lunar reflectance and infrared imagery across the lunar cycle. The imagery goal is not only to improve upon the consistent performance of DNB imagery products across the lunar cycle, but ultimately to lay the foundation for transitioning the algorithm to geostationary sensors, making global continuous nighttime imagery possible. ML-NVI demonstrates its ability to provide DNB-derived imagery with consistent contrast and representation of clouds across the full lunar cycle for nighttime cloud detection.
Significance Statement
This study explores the creation and evaluation of a feed-forward neural network to generate synthetic lunar reflectance values and imagery from VIIRS infrared channels. The model creates lunar reflectance values typical of full moon scenes, enabling quantifiable comparisons for nighttime imagery evaluations. Additionally, it creates imagery that highlights low clouds better than its infrared counterparts. Results indicate the ability to create visually consistent nighttime visible imagery across the full lunar cycle for the improved nighttime detection of low clouds. Wavelengths chosen are available on both polar and geostationary satellite sensors to support the utilization of the algorithm on multiple sensor platforms for improved temporal resolution and greater simultaneous geographic coverage over polar orbiters alone.
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to build an operational model for predicting wildfire occurrence for the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the 1–10-day range using the U-Net 3+ machine learning model. This paper illustrates the range of model performance resulting from choices made in the modeling process, such as how labels are defined for the model and how input variables are codified for the model. By combining the capabilities of the U-Net 3+ model with a neighborhood loss function, fractions skill score (FSS), we can quantify model success by predictions made both in and around the location of the original fire occurrence label. The model is trained on weather, weather-derived fuel, and topography observational inputs and labels representing fire occurrence. Observational weather, weather-derived fuel, and topography data are sourced from the gridded surface meteorological (gridMET) dataset, a daily, CONUS-wide, high-spatial-resolution dataset of surface meteorological variables. Fire occurrence labels are sourced from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Fire Program Analysis Fire-Occurrence Database (FPA-FOD), which contains spatial wildfire occurrence data for CONUS, combining data sourced from the reporting systems of federal, state, and local organizations. By exploring the many aspects of the modeling process with the added context of model performance, this work builds understanding around the use of deep learning to predict fire occurrence in CONUS.
Significance Statement
Our work seeks to explore the limits to which deep learning can predict wildfire occurrence in CONUS with the ultimate goal of providing decision support to those allocating fire resources during high fire seasons. By exploring with what accuracy and lead time we can provide insights to these persons, we hope to reduce loss of life, reduce damage to property, and improve future event preparedness. We compare two models, one trained on all fires in the continental United States and the other on only large lightning fires. We found that a model trained on all fires produced a higher probability of fire.
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to build an operational model for predicting wildfire occurrence for the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the 1–10-day range using the U-Net 3+ machine learning model. This paper illustrates the range of model performance resulting from choices made in the modeling process, such as how labels are defined for the model and how input variables are codified for the model. By combining the capabilities of the U-Net 3+ model with a neighborhood loss function, fractions skill score (FSS), we can quantify model success by predictions made both in and around the location of the original fire occurrence label. The model is trained on weather, weather-derived fuel, and topography observational inputs and labels representing fire occurrence. Observational weather, weather-derived fuel, and topography data are sourced from the gridded surface meteorological (gridMET) dataset, a daily, CONUS-wide, high-spatial-resolution dataset of surface meteorological variables. Fire occurrence labels are sourced from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Fire Program Analysis Fire-Occurrence Database (FPA-FOD), which contains spatial wildfire occurrence data for CONUS, combining data sourced from the reporting systems of federal, state, and local organizations. By exploring the many aspects of the modeling process with the added context of model performance, this work builds understanding around the use of deep learning to predict fire occurrence in CONUS.
Significance Statement
Our work seeks to explore the limits to which deep learning can predict wildfire occurrence in CONUS with the ultimate goal of providing decision support to those allocating fire resources during high fire seasons. By exploring with what accuracy and lead time we can provide insights to these persons, we hope to reduce loss of life, reduce damage to property, and improve future event preparedness. We compare two models, one trained on all fires in the continental United States and the other on only large lightning fires. We found that a model trained on all fires produced a higher probability of fire.
Abstract
This paper illustrates the lessons learned as we applied the U-Net3+ deep learning model to the task of building an operational model for predicting wildfire occurrence for the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the 1–10-day range. Through the lens of model performance, we explore the reasons for performance improvements made possible by the model. Lessons include the importance of labeling, the impact of information loss in input variables, and the role of operational considerations in the modeling process. This work offers lessons learned for other interdisciplinary researchers working at the intersection of deep learning and fire occurrence prediction with an eye toward operationalization.
Abstract
This paper illustrates the lessons learned as we applied the U-Net3+ deep learning model to the task of building an operational model for predicting wildfire occurrence for the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the 1–10-day range. Through the lens of model performance, we explore the reasons for performance improvements made possible by the model. Lessons include the importance of labeling, the impact of information loss in input variables, and the role of operational considerations in the modeling process. This work offers lessons learned for other interdisciplinary researchers working at the intersection of deep learning and fire occurrence prediction with an eye toward operationalization.
