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Abstract
Extreme heat events pose a threat to human health. Forecasting and warning strategies have been developed to mitigate heat-health hazards. Yet, studies have found that the public lacks knowledge about their heat-health risks and preventive actions to take to reduce risks. Local governmental websites are an important means to communicate preparedness to the public. The purpose of this study is to examine information provided to the public on municipal government web pages of the 10 most populous U.S. cities. A two-level document and content analyses were conducted. A direct content analysis was conducted using federal government websites and documents to create the Extreme Heat Event Public Response Rubric. The rubric contains two broad categories of populations and actions that are further specified. The rubric was then used to examine local government extreme heat event websites for the 10 most populous cities in the United States. The examination of the local government sites found that information included on the websites failed to identify the breadth of populations at greater risk for adverse heat-health outcomes and omitted some recommended actions designed to prevent adverse heat-health events. Local governments often communicated concrete and simple content to the public but more complex information was not included on their websites.
Significance Statement
Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of mortality in the United States annually. Public response to extreme heat events requires that the public understand their risk and know the actions to take to mitigate that risk. The public seeks information from local government websites. Our results found that many local government websites did not provide the information to the public on the array of conditions and factors that put people at a greater risk for an adverse heat-health event, nor did the websites include information on the variety of actions that the public should take in response to an extreme heat event in order to reduce their risks. Addressing the omission of the information on these websites may improve public response to extreme heat events.
Abstract
Extreme heat events pose a threat to human health. Forecasting and warning strategies have been developed to mitigate heat-health hazards. Yet, studies have found that the public lacks knowledge about their heat-health risks and preventive actions to take to reduce risks. Local governmental websites are an important means to communicate preparedness to the public. The purpose of this study is to examine information provided to the public on municipal government web pages of the 10 most populous U.S. cities. A two-level document and content analyses were conducted. A direct content analysis was conducted using federal government websites and documents to create the Extreme Heat Event Public Response Rubric. The rubric contains two broad categories of populations and actions that are further specified. The rubric was then used to examine local government extreme heat event websites for the 10 most populous cities in the United States. The examination of the local government sites found that information included on the websites failed to identify the breadth of populations at greater risk for adverse heat-health outcomes and omitted some recommended actions designed to prevent adverse heat-health events. Local governments often communicated concrete and simple content to the public but more complex information was not included on their websites.
Significance Statement
Extreme heat is the leading weather-related cause of mortality in the United States annually. Public response to extreme heat events requires that the public understand their risk and know the actions to take to mitigate that risk. The public seeks information from local government websites. Our results found that many local government websites did not provide the information to the public on the array of conditions and factors that put people at a greater risk for an adverse heat-health event, nor did the websites include information on the variety of actions that the public should take in response to an extreme heat event in order to reduce their risks. Addressing the omission of the information on these websites may improve public response to extreme heat events.
Abstract
Climate change is an increasingly pressing concern because it generates individual and societal vulnerability in many places in the world and also because it potentially threatens political stability. Aside from sea level rise, climate change is typically manifested in local temperature and precipitation extremes that generate other hazards. In this study, we investigated whether certain kinds of governance strategies were more common in societies whose food supply had been threatened by such natural hazards—specifically, floods, droughts, and locust infestations. We coded and analyzed ethnographic data from the Human Relations Area Files on 26 societies regarding dominant political, economic, and ideological behaviors of leaders in each society for a specified time period. Leaders in societies experiencing food-destroying disasters used different political economic strategies for maintaining power than did leaders in societies that face fewer disasters or that did not face such disasters. In nondisaster settings, leaders were more likely to have inward-focused cosmological and collectivistic strategies; conversely, when a society had experienced food-destroying disasters, leaders were more likely to have exclusionary tribal/family-based and externally focused strategies. This apparent difficulty in maintaining order and coherence of leadership in disaster settings may apply more to politically complex societies than to polities governed solely at the community level. Alternatively, it could be that exclusionary leaders help set up the conditions for disastrous consequences of hazards for the populace. Exceptions to the pattern of exclusionary political economic strategies in disaster settings indicate that workarounds do exist that allow leaders with corporate governance approaches to stay in power.
Abstract
Climate change is an increasingly pressing concern because it generates individual and societal vulnerability in many places in the world and also because it potentially threatens political stability. Aside from sea level rise, climate change is typically manifested in local temperature and precipitation extremes that generate other hazards. In this study, we investigated whether certain kinds of governance strategies were more common in societies whose food supply had been threatened by such natural hazards—specifically, floods, droughts, and locust infestations. We coded and analyzed ethnographic data from the Human Relations Area Files on 26 societies regarding dominant political, economic, and ideological behaviors of leaders in each society for a specified time period. Leaders in societies experiencing food-destroying disasters used different political economic strategies for maintaining power than did leaders in societies that face fewer disasters or that did not face such disasters. In nondisaster settings, leaders were more likely to have inward-focused cosmological and collectivistic strategies; conversely, when a society had experienced food-destroying disasters, leaders were more likely to have exclusionary tribal/family-based and externally focused strategies. This apparent difficulty in maintaining order and coherence of leadership in disaster settings may apply more to politically complex societies than to polities governed solely at the community level. Alternatively, it could be that exclusionary leaders help set up the conditions for disastrous consequences of hazards for the populace. Exceptions to the pattern of exclusionary political economic strategies in disaster settings indicate that workarounds do exist that allow leaders with corporate governance approaches to stay in power.
Abstract
The human and economic costs of severe weather damage can be mitigated by appropriate preparation. Despite the benefits, researchers have only begun to examine if known decision-making frameworks apply to severe weather–related decisions. Using experiments, we found that a hyperbolic discounting function accurately described participant decisions to prepare for, and respond to, severe weather, although only delays of 1 month or longer significantly changed decisions to evacuate, suggesting that severe weather that is not imminent does not affect evacuation decisions. In contrast, the probability that a storm would impact the participant influenced evacuation and resource allocation decisions. To influence people’s evacuation decisions, weather forecasters and community planners should focus on disseminating probabilistic information when focusing on short-term weather threats (e.g., hurricanes); delay information appears to affect people’s evacuation decision only for longer-term threats, which may hold promise for climate change warnings.
Abstract
The human and economic costs of severe weather damage can be mitigated by appropriate preparation. Despite the benefits, researchers have only begun to examine if known decision-making frameworks apply to severe weather–related decisions. Using experiments, we found that a hyperbolic discounting function accurately described participant decisions to prepare for, and respond to, severe weather, although only delays of 1 month or longer significantly changed decisions to evacuate, suggesting that severe weather that is not imminent does not affect evacuation decisions. In contrast, the probability that a storm would impact the participant influenced evacuation and resource allocation decisions. To influence people’s evacuation decisions, weather forecasters and community planners should focus on disseminating probabilistic information when focusing on short-term weather threats (e.g., hurricanes); delay information appears to affect people’s evacuation decision only for longer-term threats, which may hold promise for climate change warnings.
Abstract
This study explored people’s perceptions of climate change by conducting interviews and focus-group discussions with local residents of three ecological regions of Nepal, i.e., mountain, midhills, and lowland. Climatic measurements from meteorological stations of the regions were acquired for the period from 1988 to 2018. We compared the people’s perception with trends and variabilities of observed temperature and rainfall patterns. The results showed that, over the last three decades, temperature and precipitation trends and variability between regions varied, largely corroborating the local experiences. The temperature increased in mountain, midhills, and lowland by 0.061°, 0.063°, and 0.017°C yr−1, respectively. In contrast, rainfall decreased by −9.7, −3.6, and −0.04 mm yr−1 for the regions, respectively. Although the amount of rainfall decrease observed in the mountain was highest, its variability was found to be relatively low, and vice versa in lowland. Approximately 88% of interviewees perceived temperature rise, and 74% noticed rainfall decline. Local residents linked these changes with their livelihood activities, as exemplified by, for example, crop’s quality and quantity and birds’ migration. The results indicate that local understandings complement the scarce observational data and provide a reliable and additional foundation to determine changes in climatic variables. Moreover, the result infers that small changes in climate variables have noticeable implications on human behavior change. Therefore, besides active participation of local communities, integrating local understanding is crucial in developing climate change–related policies and strategies at local and national levels.
Abstract
This study explored people’s perceptions of climate change by conducting interviews and focus-group discussions with local residents of three ecological regions of Nepal, i.e., mountain, midhills, and lowland. Climatic measurements from meteorological stations of the regions were acquired for the period from 1988 to 2018. We compared the people’s perception with trends and variabilities of observed temperature and rainfall patterns. The results showed that, over the last three decades, temperature and precipitation trends and variability between regions varied, largely corroborating the local experiences. The temperature increased in mountain, midhills, and lowland by 0.061°, 0.063°, and 0.017°C yr−1, respectively. In contrast, rainfall decreased by −9.7, −3.6, and −0.04 mm yr−1 for the regions, respectively. Although the amount of rainfall decrease observed in the mountain was highest, its variability was found to be relatively low, and vice versa in lowland. Approximately 88% of interviewees perceived temperature rise, and 74% noticed rainfall decline. Local residents linked these changes with their livelihood activities, as exemplified by, for example, crop’s quality and quantity and birds’ migration. The results indicate that local understandings complement the scarce observational data and provide a reliable and additional foundation to determine changes in climatic variables. Moreover, the result infers that small changes in climate variables have noticeable implications on human behavior change. Therefore, besides active participation of local communities, integrating local understanding is crucial in developing climate change–related policies and strategies at local and national levels.
Abstract
The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the transatlantic slave trade (TAST) is examined using the Slave Voyages dataset and several reconstructed ENSO indices. The ENSO indices are used as a proxy for West African rainfall and temperature. In the Sahel, the El Niño (warm) phase of ENSO is associated with less rainfall and warmer temperatures, whereas the La Niña (cold) phase of ENSO is associated with more rainfall and cooler temperatures. The association between ENSO and the TAST is weak but statistically significant at a 2-yr lag. In this case, El Niño (drier and warmer) years are associated with a decrease in the export of enslaved Africans. The response of the TAST to El Niño is explained in terms of the societal response to agricultural stresses brought on by less rainfall and warmer temperatures. ENSO-induced changes to the TAST are briefly discussed in light of climate-induced movements of peoples in centuries past and the drought-induced movement of peoples in the Middle East today.
Significance Statement
The transatlantic slave trade was driven by economic and political forces, subject to the vagaries of the weather; it spanned two hemispheres and four continents and lasted more than 400 years. In this study we show that El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its proxy association with West African rainfall and temperature, are significantly associated with the number of enslaved Africans that were transported from West Africa to the Americas. Lessons learned from the effects of weather and climate on the transatlantic slave trade reverberate today: extreme weather and climate change will continue to catalyze and amplify human conflict and migrations.
Abstract
The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the transatlantic slave trade (TAST) is examined using the Slave Voyages dataset and several reconstructed ENSO indices. The ENSO indices are used as a proxy for West African rainfall and temperature. In the Sahel, the El Niño (warm) phase of ENSO is associated with less rainfall and warmer temperatures, whereas the La Niña (cold) phase of ENSO is associated with more rainfall and cooler temperatures. The association between ENSO and the TAST is weak but statistically significant at a 2-yr lag. In this case, El Niño (drier and warmer) years are associated with a decrease in the export of enslaved Africans. The response of the TAST to El Niño is explained in terms of the societal response to agricultural stresses brought on by less rainfall and warmer temperatures. ENSO-induced changes to the TAST are briefly discussed in light of climate-induced movements of peoples in centuries past and the drought-induced movement of peoples in the Middle East today.
Significance Statement
The transatlantic slave trade was driven by economic and political forces, subject to the vagaries of the weather; it spanned two hemispheres and four continents and lasted more than 400 years. In this study we show that El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and its proxy association with West African rainfall and temperature, are significantly associated with the number of enslaved Africans that were transported from West Africa to the Americas. Lessons learned from the effects of weather and climate on the transatlantic slave trade reverberate today: extreme weather and climate change will continue to catalyze and amplify human conflict and migrations.
Abstract
Rapid and interacting change poses an increasing threat to livelihoods and food production, and pastoralists in Nordland, northern Norway, are at a crossroads both economically and culturally. Some of these changes are localized and pertain to changing weather and grazing conditions caused by climate change and land fragmentation. Others, driven by national management policies and governance specifically related to predators, are poorly adjusted for the different and localized contexts. The pastoralists are inherently adaptive and have a long history of responding well to variable changing conditions. This is now changing with the continued increasing pressures from many directions. The central government systematically ignores pastoralists’ traditional knowledge and enforces narrow sector policies to be implemented at regional and local levels. We address the effect of how institutional, physical, and societal constraints challenge pastoralists’ prospects for sustainable adaptation. Our results show how pastoralists’ livelihoods become compromised and potentially threatened because they are forced to respond in ways that they know are counterproductive in the long run. Adaptation outcomes are affected by different approaches and epistemologies that are situated across scale and context in terms of regional and national regulations versus local empirical reality among the pastoral communities. This study concludes that radical change is needed toward a more holistic governance in which multiple knowledge systems are integrated to ensure sustainable adaptation at all levels. This study is based on extensive and long-term fieldwork among reindeer herders and sheep farmers in Nordland, through a collaborative process of knowledge coproduction.
Abstract
Rapid and interacting change poses an increasing threat to livelihoods and food production, and pastoralists in Nordland, northern Norway, are at a crossroads both economically and culturally. Some of these changes are localized and pertain to changing weather and grazing conditions caused by climate change and land fragmentation. Others, driven by national management policies and governance specifically related to predators, are poorly adjusted for the different and localized contexts. The pastoralists are inherently adaptive and have a long history of responding well to variable changing conditions. This is now changing with the continued increasing pressures from many directions. The central government systematically ignores pastoralists’ traditional knowledge and enforces narrow sector policies to be implemented at regional and local levels. We address the effect of how institutional, physical, and societal constraints challenge pastoralists’ prospects for sustainable adaptation. Our results show how pastoralists’ livelihoods become compromised and potentially threatened because they are forced to respond in ways that they know are counterproductive in the long run. Adaptation outcomes are affected by different approaches and epistemologies that are situated across scale and context in terms of regional and national regulations versus local empirical reality among the pastoral communities. This study concludes that radical change is needed toward a more holistic governance in which multiple knowledge systems are integrated to ensure sustainable adaptation at all levels. This study is based on extensive and long-term fieldwork among reindeer herders and sheep farmers in Nordland, through a collaborative process of knowledge coproduction.
Abstract
Adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change is crucial to avoid food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers’ perception of climate change is a crucial element in adaptation process. The aim of this study was (i) to compare farmers’ perception of climate change with actual weather data recorded in central Mali, (ii) to identify changes in agricultural practices implemented by farmers to adapt to climate change, and (iii) to investigate the link between farmers’ perception of climate change and implementation of adaptation practices. Focus group discussions and individual surveys were conducted to identify climate-related changes perceived by farmers and agricultural adaptation strategies they consider relevant to cope with these changes. A majority (>50%) of farmers perceived an increase in temperature, decrease in rainfall, shortening of growing season, early cessation of rainfall, and increase in the frequency of dry spells at the beginning of the growing season. In line with farmers’ perception, analysis of climate data indicated (i) an increase in mean annual temperature and minimum growing season temperature and (ii) a decrease in total rainfall. Farmers’ perception of early cessation of rainfall and more-frequent drought periods were not detected by climate data analysis. To cope with the decrease in rainfall and late start of the growing season, farmers used drought-tolerant cultivars and implemented water-saving technologies. Despite a perceived warming, no specific adaptation to heat stress was mentioned by farmers. We found evidence of a link between farmers’ perception of climate change and the implementation of some adaptation options. Our study highlights the need for a dialogue between farmers and researchers to develop new strategies to compensate for the expected negative impacts of heat stress on agricultural productivity.
Abstract
Adaptation of the agricultural sector to climate change is crucial to avoid food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa. Farmers’ perception of climate change is a crucial element in adaptation process. The aim of this study was (i) to compare farmers’ perception of climate change with actual weather data recorded in central Mali, (ii) to identify changes in agricultural practices implemented by farmers to adapt to climate change, and (iii) to investigate the link between farmers’ perception of climate change and implementation of adaptation practices. Focus group discussions and individual surveys were conducted to identify climate-related changes perceived by farmers and agricultural adaptation strategies they consider relevant to cope with these changes. A majority (>50%) of farmers perceived an increase in temperature, decrease in rainfall, shortening of growing season, early cessation of rainfall, and increase in the frequency of dry spells at the beginning of the growing season. In line with farmers’ perception, analysis of climate data indicated (i) an increase in mean annual temperature and minimum growing season temperature and (ii) a decrease in total rainfall. Farmers’ perception of early cessation of rainfall and more-frequent drought periods were not detected by climate data analysis. To cope with the decrease in rainfall and late start of the growing season, farmers used drought-tolerant cultivars and implemented water-saving technologies. Despite a perceived warming, no specific adaptation to heat stress was mentioned by farmers. We found evidence of a link between farmers’ perception of climate change and the implementation of some adaptation options. Our study highlights the need for a dialogue between farmers and researchers to develop new strategies to compensate for the expected negative impacts of heat stress on agricultural productivity.
Abstract
This study investigates whether extreme heat episodes (heat waves) have contributed to the development of air conditioning (AC) technology in the United States. To this end, we use weather data to identify days at which heat and relative humidity were above levels comfortable to the human body, and match these with patent data at the county level for nearly a hundred years. We find that in the 2 years after a county has experienced extreme heat AC patents increase. Overall, average extreme heat exposure results in an increase of 7.5% greater innovation. We find no similar increase in the frequency of non-AC-related patent filings, and therefore conclude that heat waves result in innovation targeting their mitigation.
Significance Statement
The possibility of more extreme heat because of global warming has raised the question of whether society will be able to invent new technology to adapt to the likely greater frequency and severity of heat waves. The purpose of this paper is to consider the development of air conditioning in the United States and investigate whether extreme heat has indeed driven innovation in cooling technology. It is shown that, in counties with episodes of extreme heat, the number of air conditioning patents filed increased in the aftermath of these episodes, but that this increase was short-lived.
Abstract
This study investigates whether extreme heat episodes (heat waves) have contributed to the development of air conditioning (AC) technology in the United States. To this end, we use weather data to identify days at which heat and relative humidity were above levels comfortable to the human body, and match these with patent data at the county level for nearly a hundred years. We find that in the 2 years after a county has experienced extreme heat AC patents increase. Overall, average extreme heat exposure results in an increase of 7.5% greater innovation. We find no similar increase in the frequency of non-AC-related patent filings, and therefore conclude that heat waves result in innovation targeting their mitigation.
Significance Statement
The possibility of more extreme heat because of global warming has raised the question of whether society will be able to invent new technology to adapt to the likely greater frequency and severity of heat waves. The purpose of this paper is to consider the development of air conditioning in the United States and investigate whether extreme heat has indeed driven innovation in cooling technology. It is shown that, in counties with episodes of extreme heat, the number of air conditioning patents filed increased in the aftermath of these episodes, but that this increase was short-lived.
Abstract
Impact forecasts and warnings (IFW) are key to resilience for hydrometeorological hazards. Communicating the potential social, economic, and environmental hazard impacts allows individuals and communities to adjust their plans and better prepare for the consequences of the hazard. IFW systems require additional knowledge about impacts and underlying vulnerability and exposure. Lack of data or knowledge about impacts, vulnerability, and exposure has been identified as a challenge for IFW implementation. In this study, we begin to address this challenge by developing an understanding of the data needs and uses for IFWs. Using the grounded theory method, we conducted a series of interviews with users and creators of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data (e.g., warning services, forecasters, meteorologists, hydrologists, emergency managers, data specialists, risk modelers) to understand where these data are needed and used in the warning value chain, a concept used to represent and understand the flow of information among actors in the warning chain. In support of existing research, we found a growing need for creating, gathering, and using impact, vulnerability, and exposure data for IFWs. Furthermore, we identified different approaches for impact forecasting and defining impact thresholds using objective models and subjective impact-oriented discussions depending on the data available. We also provided new insight into a growing need to identify, model, and warn for social and health impacts, which have typically taken a back seat to modeling and forecasting physical and infrastructure impacts. Our findings on the data needs and uses within IFW systems will help guide their development and provide a pathway for identifying specific relevant data sources.
Abstract
Impact forecasts and warnings (IFW) are key to resilience for hydrometeorological hazards. Communicating the potential social, economic, and environmental hazard impacts allows individuals and communities to adjust their plans and better prepare for the consequences of the hazard. IFW systems require additional knowledge about impacts and underlying vulnerability and exposure. Lack of data or knowledge about impacts, vulnerability, and exposure has been identified as a challenge for IFW implementation. In this study, we begin to address this challenge by developing an understanding of the data needs and uses for IFWs. Using the grounded theory method, we conducted a series of interviews with users and creators of hazard, impact, vulnerability, and exposure data (e.g., warning services, forecasters, meteorologists, hydrologists, emergency managers, data specialists, risk modelers) to understand where these data are needed and used in the warning value chain, a concept used to represent and understand the flow of information among actors in the warning chain. In support of existing research, we found a growing need for creating, gathering, and using impact, vulnerability, and exposure data for IFWs. Furthermore, we identified different approaches for impact forecasting and defining impact thresholds using objective models and subjective impact-oriented discussions depending on the data available. We also provided new insight into a growing need to identify, model, and warn for social and health impacts, which have typically taken a back seat to modeling and forecasting physical and infrastructure impacts. Our findings on the data needs and uses within IFW systems will help guide their development and provide a pathway for identifying specific relevant data sources.
Abstract
Snow has numerous effects on traffic, including reduced traffic volumes, greater crash risk, and increased travel times. This research examines how snow affects crash risk, traffic volume, and toll revenue on the New York State Thruway. Daily data from January for a 10-yr period (2010–19) were analyzed for the Thruway from the Pennsylvania state line in western New York to Syracuse. Anywhere from 35% to 50% of crashes are associated with inclement weather, with smaller impacts, proportionally, in areas with greater traffic volumes. As expected, snow was almost always involved when weather was a factor. “Unsafe speed” was the most common cause of crashes in inclement weather with all other factors (e.g., animals, drowsiness) much less likely to play a role. The percentage of crashes resulting in an injury did not change significantly with inclement conditions when compared with crashes occurring in fair conditions, and there were too few fatal crashes to make any inferences about them. Daily snowfall rates predicted about 30% of the variation in crash numbers, with every 5.1 cm of snowfall resulting in an additional crash, except in Buffalo where 5.1 cm of snow resulted in an additional 2.6 crashes. Confirming earlier results, daily snowfall had a large impact on passenger vehicle counts whereas commercial vehicle counts were less affected. Revenue data showed a similar pattern, with passenger revenue typically decreasing by 3%–5% per 2.5 cm of snow, whereas commercial revenue decreases were 1%–4% per 2.5 cm of snow.
Significance Statement
While it seems obvious that snowfall increases the number of crashes, decreases traffic volume, and reduces toll revenues, research is limited to support these assumptions, especially the latter two. This study involved an analysis of such items for the New York State Thruway. We found that increasing amounts of snow did cause more crashes. While traffic counts decreased, most of the decrease was in the number of passenger vehicles; commercial vehicle traffic was much less affected. Every 2.5 cm of snow costs the New York State Thruway approximately $1300 at each toll barrier and about $331 at each exit. These findings are helpful to law enforcement, emergency responders, and highway managers.
Abstract
Snow has numerous effects on traffic, including reduced traffic volumes, greater crash risk, and increased travel times. This research examines how snow affects crash risk, traffic volume, and toll revenue on the New York State Thruway. Daily data from January for a 10-yr period (2010–19) were analyzed for the Thruway from the Pennsylvania state line in western New York to Syracuse. Anywhere from 35% to 50% of crashes are associated with inclement weather, with smaller impacts, proportionally, in areas with greater traffic volumes. As expected, snow was almost always involved when weather was a factor. “Unsafe speed” was the most common cause of crashes in inclement weather with all other factors (e.g., animals, drowsiness) much less likely to play a role. The percentage of crashes resulting in an injury did not change significantly with inclement conditions when compared with crashes occurring in fair conditions, and there were too few fatal crashes to make any inferences about them. Daily snowfall rates predicted about 30% of the variation in crash numbers, with every 5.1 cm of snowfall resulting in an additional crash, except in Buffalo where 5.1 cm of snow resulted in an additional 2.6 crashes. Confirming earlier results, daily snowfall had a large impact on passenger vehicle counts whereas commercial vehicle counts were less affected. Revenue data showed a similar pattern, with passenger revenue typically decreasing by 3%–5% per 2.5 cm of snow, whereas commercial revenue decreases were 1%–4% per 2.5 cm of snow.
Significance Statement
While it seems obvious that snowfall increases the number of crashes, decreases traffic volume, and reduces toll revenues, research is limited to support these assumptions, especially the latter two. This study involved an analysis of such items for the New York State Thruway. We found that increasing amounts of snow did cause more crashes. While traffic counts decreased, most of the decrease was in the number of passenger vehicles; commercial vehicle traffic was much less affected. Every 2.5 cm of snow costs the New York State Thruway approximately $1300 at each toll barrier and about $331 at each exit. These findings are helpful to law enforcement, emergency responders, and highway managers.
