Browse
Abstract
This paper investigates the value of weather and climate information at different time scales for decision-making in the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using nonmonetary approaches. Interviews and surveys were conducted with institutions responsible for disaster management at national, regional, and district levels. A range of values were identified, including 1) making informed decisions for disaster-preparedness-, response-, recovery-, and restoration-related activities; 2) tailoring of directives and actions based on sectoral impacts; and 3) identification of hot-spot areas for diseases outbreaks and surplus food production. However, while a number of guidelines, policies, acts, and regulations for disaster risk reduction exist, it is not clear how well they promote the use of weather and climate information across climate-sensitive sectors. Nonetheless, we find that well-structured disaster risk reduction coordination across sectors and institutions from the national to the district level exists, although there is a need for further development of integrated early warning systems and a common platform to evaluate effectiveness and usefulness of weather warnings and advisories. Key challenges to address in increasing the uptake of weather warnings and advisories include language barriers, limited dissemination to rural areas, and limited awareness of forecasts. From the findings of this study, we recommend further quantitative evaluation of the skill of the severe weather warnings issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority and an assessment of how decisions and actions are made by recipients of the warnings in the disaster risk reduction sector at different stages in the warning, response, and recovery process.
Abstract
This paper investigates the value of weather and climate information at different time scales for decision-making in the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using nonmonetary approaches. Interviews and surveys were conducted with institutions responsible for disaster management at national, regional, and district levels. A range of values were identified, including 1) making informed decisions for disaster-preparedness-, response-, recovery-, and restoration-related activities; 2) tailoring of directives and actions based on sectoral impacts; and 3) identification of hot-spot areas for diseases outbreaks and surplus food production. However, while a number of guidelines, policies, acts, and regulations for disaster risk reduction exist, it is not clear how well they promote the use of weather and climate information across climate-sensitive sectors. Nonetheless, we find that well-structured disaster risk reduction coordination across sectors and institutions from the national to the district level exists, although there is a need for further development of integrated early warning systems and a common platform to evaluate effectiveness and usefulness of weather warnings and advisories. Key challenges to address in increasing the uptake of weather warnings and advisories include language barriers, limited dissemination to rural areas, and limited awareness of forecasts. From the findings of this study, we recommend further quantitative evaluation of the skill of the severe weather warnings issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority and an assessment of how decisions and actions are made by recipients of the warnings in the disaster risk reduction sector at different stages in the warning, response, and recovery process.
Abstract
Unintended consequences from decisions made in one part of a social–ecological system in response to climate hazards can magnify vulnerabilities for others in the same system. Yet anticipating or identifying these cascades and spillovers in real time is difficult. Social learning is an important component of adaptation that has the ability to facilitate adaptive capacity by mobilizing multiple actors around a common resource to manage collectively in ways that build local knowledge, reflective practices, and a broader understanding of contexts for decisions. While the foundations of social learning in resource management have been theorized in the literature, empirical examples of unintended consequences that trigger social learning are few. This article analyzes two cases of drought decisions made along the Arkansas River basin in Colorado; in each, social learning occurred after actors experienced unanticipated impacts from others’ decisions. Methods include interviews with actors, both individual and institutional representatives of different sectors (recreation, agriculture, etc.), and a review of relevant historical and policy documents. The study identifies four features of social learning that aided actors’ responses to unanticipated consequences: governance structures that facilitated more holistic river management; relationship boundaries that expanded beyond small-scale decisions to capture interactions and emergent problems; knowledge of others’ previous experience, whether direct or indirect; and creation of spaces for safer experimentation with adaptation changes. Results identify empirical examples of actors who successfully learned to adapt together to unexpected consequences and thus may provide insight for others collectively managing drought extremes.
Abstract
Unintended consequences from decisions made in one part of a social–ecological system in response to climate hazards can magnify vulnerabilities for others in the same system. Yet anticipating or identifying these cascades and spillovers in real time is difficult. Social learning is an important component of adaptation that has the ability to facilitate adaptive capacity by mobilizing multiple actors around a common resource to manage collectively in ways that build local knowledge, reflective practices, and a broader understanding of contexts for decisions. While the foundations of social learning in resource management have been theorized in the literature, empirical examples of unintended consequences that trigger social learning are few. This article analyzes two cases of drought decisions made along the Arkansas River basin in Colorado; in each, social learning occurred after actors experienced unanticipated impacts from others’ decisions. Methods include interviews with actors, both individual and institutional representatives of different sectors (recreation, agriculture, etc.), and a review of relevant historical and policy documents. The study identifies four features of social learning that aided actors’ responses to unanticipated consequences: governance structures that facilitated more holistic river management; relationship boundaries that expanded beyond small-scale decisions to capture interactions and emergent problems; knowledge of others’ previous experience, whether direct or indirect; and creation of spaces for safer experimentation with adaptation changes. Results identify empirical examples of actors who successfully learned to adapt together to unexpected consequences and thus may provide insight for others collectively managing drought extremes.
Abstract
Weather is a crucial factor (and the most unpredictable of all factors) determining the success or failure of any offshore activity, such as investments in seafloor grid connectors (gas, energy, or communication), development of oil and gas drilling facilities, and erection of offshore wind farms. Weather conditions cannot be foreseen accurately over a time horizon longer than a few days, and so arranging a realistic work schedule for such an enterprise poses a great challenge. This paper identifies and analyzes the greatest risks associated with weather conditions at sea. The importance and impact of weather on the project implementation are assessed and mitigating measures are proposed. As part of the work, a review of scientific literature was conducted, and the core conclusions were reached using information-gathering techniques and a documentation review of the offshore projects implemented in cooperation with the Maritime Institute. The authors based their analysis on experience from survey campaigns conducted in the Baltic Sea in the areas of the investments planned for implementation. The analysis of risks associated with weather conditions is based on the statistical weather data obtained using the Wave Ocean Model cycle 4 (WAM4). The research reveals that it is impossible to create an accurate survey schedule for long-term offshore projects; however, using statistics for each individual hydrodynamic parameter can, to some extent, facilitate the creation of survey schedules for maritime projects.
Abstract
Weather is a crucial factor (and the most unpredictable of all factors) determining the success or failure of any offshore activity, such as investments in seafloor grid connectors (gas, energy, or communication), development of oil and gas drilling facilities, and erection of offshore wind farms. Weather conditions cannot be foreseen accurately over a time horizon longer than a few days, and so arranging a realistic work schedule for such an enterprise poses a great challenge. This paper identifies and analyzes the greatest risks associated with weather conditions at sea. The importance and impact of weather on the project implementation are assessed and mitigating measures are proposed. As part of the work, a review of scientific literature was conducted, and the core conclusions were reached using information-gathering techniques and a documentation review of the offshore projects implemented in cooperation with the Maritime Institute. The authors based their analysis on experience from survey campaigns conducted in the Baltic Sea in the areas of the investments planned for implementation. The analysis of risks associated with weather conditions is based on the statistical weather data obtained using the Wave Ocean Model cycle 4 (WAM4). The research reveals that it is impossible to create an accurate survey schedule for long-term offshore projects; however, using statistics for each individual hydrodynamic parameter can, to some extent, facilitate the creation of survey schedules for maritime projects.
Abstract
Grapevine growth and wine production are both closely connected with weather and climate, making anthropogenic climate change a source of great uncertainty for the grape and wine industries. To assess the impacts of climate change on viticulture and oenology in the Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada, where no such assessment has been published to this date, a series of key indicators and critical thresholds were selected on the basis of their relevance to the local climate. Trends among these indicators and thresholds were calculated over a historic period (1970–2019) and projected over the twenty-first century for one intermediate-emissions climate change scenario and one high-emissions climate change scenario. Historic trends were assessed using Environment and Climate Change Canada weather station data from Abbotsford, British Columbia. Two statistical downscaling methods were evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce observed conditions in the Fraser Valley, and the most effective method was used to create projections of local, daily climate change scenarios. During the historic period, temperatures increased significantly while precipitation and moisture variables displayed insignificant trends, reflecting the trends observed across other wine regions in Canada and the northwestern United States. Throughout the twenty-first century, warming is expected to continue while precipitation decreases modestly. Extreme heat is projected to become far more frequent, whereas extreme cold and potential frost days become rare. In the short term, modifications to vineyard and winery operations may be sufficient adaptation strategies. Over the long term, new grape varieties will most likely need to be planted in existing vineyards and suitability for cool-climate varieties may shift northward in direction or upward in elevation.
Abstract
Grapevine growth and wine production are both closely connected with weather and climate, making anthropogenic climate change a source of great uncertainty for the grape and wine industries. To assess the impacts of climate change on viticulture and oenology in the Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada, where no such assessment has been published to this date, a series of key indicators and critical thresholds were selected on the basis of their relevance to the local climate. Trends among these indicators and thresholds were calculated over a historic period (1970–2019) and projected over the twenty-first century for one intermediate-emissions climate change scenario and one high-emissions climate change scenario. Historic trends were assessed using Environment and Climate Change Canada weather station data from Abbotsford, British Columbia. Two statistical downscaling methods were evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce observed conditions in the Fraser Valley, and the most effective method was used to create projections of local, daily climate change scenarios. During the historic period, temperatures increased significantly while precipitation and moisture variables displayed insignificant trends, reflecting the trends observed across other wine regions in Canada and the northwestern United States. Throughout the twenty-first century, warming is expected to continue while precipitation decreases modestly. Extreme heat is projected to become far more frequent, whereas extreme cold and potential frost days become rare. In the short term, modifications to vineyard and winery operations may be sufficient adaptation strategies. Over the long term, new grape varieties will most likely need to be planted in existing vineyards and suitability for cool-climate varieties may shift northward in direction or upward in elevation.
Abstract
In Şanlıurfa, Turkey, agriculture is the most important source of income. This study aimed to determine Şanlıurfa farmers’ willingness to pay for drought adaptation policies and the factors affecting their willingness. The data were obtained from face-to-face surveys with farmers, selected using a simple random sampling method. According to the results, 50.26% perceive a risk of drought, and 35.86% are willing to pay for adaptation policies. Among those willing to pay, the average amount was $22.63 ha−1 [$1 (U.S. dollar) = TRY 5.676 (Turkish lira)], and the average for all participants was $13.55 ha−1. This adds up to a total of $14,363,000 yr−1 for Şanlıurfa. This amount is 1.47% of the annual average income of the participants and is thus within their ability to pay. Age, amount of land farmed, education level, experience, and income were factors affecting willingness to pay. Many respondents, however, were unaware of drought adaptation policies. Because there is concern that drought risk is increasing, awareness needs to be increased, for example, through extension services. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of its kind, and the results may be useful for creating and applying drought adaptation policies in both Turkey and other regions with similar socioeconomic characteristics.
Abstract
In Şanlıurfa, Turkey, agriculture is the most important source of income. This study aimed to determine Şanlıurfa farmers’ willingness to pay for drought adaptation policies and the factors affecting their willingness. The data were obtained from face-to-face surveys with farmers, selected using a simple random sampling method. According to the results, 50.26% perceive a risk of drought, and 35.86% are willing to pay for adaptation policies. Among those willing to pay, the average amount was $22.63 ha−1 [$1 (U.S. dollar) = TRY 5.676 (Turkish lira)], and the average for all participants was $13.55 ha−1. This adds up to a total of $14,363,000 yr−1 for Şanlıurfa. This amount is 1.47% of the annual average income of the participants and is thus within their ability to pay. Age, amount of land farmed, education level, experience, and income were factors affecting willingness to pay. Many respondents, however, were unaware of drought adaptation policies. Because there is concern that drought risk is increasing, awareness needs to be increased, for example, through extension services. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of its kind, and the results may be useful for creating and applying drought adaptation policies in both Turkey and other regions with similar socioeconomic characteristics.
Abstract
Scholars have produced several theories and models to explain why individuals adjust to hazards. While findings from these studies are informative, studies have not considered how threat and coping appraisals may have differential effects on varying types of hazard adjustments, or how these findings may generalize to vulnerable populations. This study expands on the protection motivation theory to explore the factors that shape hazard adjustment intentions among college students, a population traditionally defined as vulnerable, in response to tornado risk. An online survey was administered to college students (n = 377) at Oklahoma State University, situated in a region that experiences considerable tornado risk. While the correlations between threat appraisal and tornado hazard adjustment intentions are smaller than the correlations between coping appraisal and tornado hazard adjustment intentions, findings suggest that threat appraisals become more important for influencing college students’ adjustment intentions when adjustment activities are complex (e.g., tornado shelter, home insurance) rather than basic (e.g., flashlight, first-aid kit). This suggests that while both threat appraisals and coping appraisals are important for complex hazard adjustment intentions, basic hazard adjustment intentions are almost exclusively determined by coping appraisals. These findings have several practical implications for emergency management and provide new avenues for future hazard adjustment studies.
Abstract
Scholars have produced several theories and models to explain why individuals adjust to hazards. While findings from these studies are informative, studies have not considered how threat and coping appraisals may have differential effects on varying types of hazard adjustments, or how these findings may generalize to vulnerable populations. This study expands on the protection motivation theory to explore the factors that shape hazard adjustment intentions among college students, a population traditionally defined as vulnerable, in response to tornado risk. An online survey was administered to college students (n = 377) at Oklahoma State University, situated in a region that experiences considerable tornado risk. While the correlations between threat appraisal and tornado hazard adjustment intentions are smaller than the correlations between coping appraisal and tornado hazard adjustment intentions, findings suggest that threat appraisals become more important for influencing college students’ adjustment intentions when adjustment activities are complex (e.g., tornado shelter, home insurance) rather than basic (e.g., flashlight, first-aid kit). This suggests that while both threat appraisals and coping appraisals are important for complex hazard adjustment intentions, basic hazard adjustment intentions are almost exclusively determined by coping appraisals. These findings have several practical implications for emergency management and provide new avenues for future hazard adjustment studies.
Abstract
Forecast valuation studies play a key role in understanding the determinants of the value of weather and climate forecasts. Such understanding provides opportunities to increase the value that users can obtain from forecasts, which can in turn increase the use of forecasts. One of the most important factors that influences how users process forecast information and incorporate forecasts into their decision-making is trust in forecasts. Despite the evidence from empirical and field-based studies, modeling users’ trust in forecasts has not received much attention in the literature and is therefore the focus of our study. We propose a theoretical model of trust in information, built into a forecast valuation framework, to better understand 1) the role of trust in users’ processing of drought forecast information and 2) the dynamic process of users’ trust formation and evolution. Using a numerical experiment, we show that considering the dynamic nature of trust is critical in more realistic assessment of forecast value. We find that users may not perceive a potentially valuable forecast as such until they trust it enough, implying that exposure to even highly accurate forecasts may not immediately translate into forecast use. Ignoring this dynamic aspect could overestimate the economic gains from forecasts. Furthermore, the model offers hypotheses with regard to targeting strategies that can be tested with empirical and field-based studies and used to guide policy interventions.
Abstract
Forecast valuation studies play a key role in understanding the determinants of the value of weather and climate forecasts. Such understanding provides opportunities to increase the value that users can obtain from forecasts, which can in turn increase the use of forecasts. One of the most important factors that influences how users process forecast information and incorporate forecasts into their decision-making is trust in forecasts. Despite the evidence from empirical and field-based studies, modeling users’ trust in forecasts has not received much attention in the literature and is therefore the focus of our study. We propose a theoretical model of trust in information, built into a forecast valuation framework, to better understand 1) the role of trust in users’ processing of drought forecast information and 2) the dynamic process of users’ trust formation and evolution. Using a numerical experiment, we show that considering the dynamic nature of trust is critical in more realistic assessment of forecast value. We find that users may not perceive a potentially valuable forecast as such until they trust it enough, implying that exposure to even highly accurate forecasts may not immediately translate into forecast use. Ignoring this dynamic aspect could overestimate the economic gains from forecasts. Furthermore, the model offers hypotheses with regard to targeting strategies that can be tested with empirical and field-based studies and used to guide policy interventions.
Abstract
In recent decades there has been a surge in the scholarship on climate change adaptation (CCA) terminology, and diverging interpretations of the term have emerged. Given the crucial role of local governments in building societywide adaptive capacity, understanding how municipalities understand and interpret CCA is important. In this study, we analyze 12 large-scale questionnaires from 2007 to 2020 distributed to all Norwegian municipalities. Using a combination of directed and conventional content analysis of the questions and answers, we summarize and map the progress of adaptation work over the 14 years and assess the consistency and the scope of the surveys in light of the current research on climate adaptation. We find diverging views on what adaptation entails, both from the researchers, in the phrasing of questions, and from the respondents. The empirical evidence suggests an overall imbalanced interpretation of CCA, in terms of the risks and consequences we may face, the climate to which adapting is needed, and adequate adaptation strategies. We go on to discuss the implications of these findings, highlighting the need for a shared and well-communicated framework for local CCA and a closer monitoring of the actual efforts of the municipalities. If instead left unchecked, this confusion might lead to unsustainable maladaptation at the local government level throughout Norway and beyond.
Abstract
In recent decades there has been a surge in the scholarship on climate change adaptation (CCA) terminology, and diverging interpretations of the term have emerged. Given the crucial role of local governments in building societywide adaptive capacity, understanding how municipalities understand and interpret CCA is important. In this study, we analyze 12 large-scale questionnaires from 2007 to 2020 distributed to all Norwegian municipalities. Using a combination of directed and conventional content analysis of the questions and answers, we summarize and map the progress of adaptation work over the 14 years and assess the consistency and the scope of the surveys in light of the current research on climate adaptation. We find diverging views on what adaptation entails, both from the researchers, in the phrasing of questions, and from the respondents. The empirical evidence suggests an overall imbalanced interpretation of CCA, in terms of the risks and consequences we may face, the climate to which adapting is needed, and adequate adaptation strategies. We go on to discuss the implications of these findings, highlighting the need for a shared and well-communicated framework for local CCA and a closer monitoring of the actual efforts of the municipalities. If instead left unchecked, this confusion might lead to unsustainable maladaptation at the local government level throughout Norway and beyond.
Abstract
This paper presents a case study of how boundary objects were deployed to support a collaborative knowledge production process that resulted in the creation of climate change knowledge usable to municipal governments in the New Jersey shore region. In doing so, a case is made that boundary objects are useful throughout the collaborative process in overcoming ambiguity and disagreement. This points to boundary objects possessing a wider array of capabilities than is frequently theorized in the climate policy literature. Effectively designing and using boundary objects, however, requires carefully considering how they interface and interact with one another.
Abstract
This paper presents a case study of how boundary objects were deployed to support a collaborative knowledge production process that resulted in the creation of climate change knowledge usable to municipal governments in the New Jersey shore region. In doing so, a case is made that boundary objects are useful throughout the collaborative process in overcoming ambiguity and disagreement. This points to boundary objects possessing a wider array of capabilities than is frequently theorized in the climate policy literature. Effectively designing and using boundary objects, however, requires carefully considering how they interface and interact with one another.
