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Abstract
Extreme weather, including heat waves, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and human health. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of heat waves will increase. Because of this, communicating heat-related risks to the public is increasingly important. One commonly used communication tool is the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which establishes how much more likely an extreme weather event, such as a heat wave, has been made by climate change. To test the impact of the CSI on people’s understanding of the links between climate change and extreme weather, we conducted an experiment informing 3902 American adults that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave in the United States at least 5 times more likely. In addition to this standard CSI wording and two control messages, we also explored the effectiveness of reframing magnitude as a percentage and whether mechanistic and attribution explanations of the relationship between climate change and heat waves further increase understanding. All treatments increased the belief that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely and is making heat waves in general more likely as well. Additionally, we found that expressing the magnitude as a percentage was more effective than the standard CSI framing. We also found that just talking about the heat wave, without mentioning climate change, was enough to change beliefs.
Abstract
Extreme weather, including heat waves, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and human health. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of heat waves will increase. Because of this, communicating heat-related risks to the public is increasingly important. One commonly used communication tool is the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which establishes how much more likely an extreme weather event, such as a heat wave, has been made by climate change. To test the impact of the CSI on people’s understanding of the links between climate change and extreme weather, we conducted an experiment informing 3902 American adults that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave in the United States at least 5 times more likely. In addition to this standard CSI wording and two control messages, we also explored the effectiveness of reframing magnitude as a percentage and whether mechanistic and attribution explanations of the relationship between climate change and heat waves further increase understanding. All treatments increased the belief that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely and is making heat waves in general more likely as well. Additionally, we found that expressing the magnitude as a percentage was more effective than the standard CSI framing. We also found that just talking about the heat wave, without mentioning climate change, was enough to change beliefs.
Abstract
Map graphics are often used for hazard risk communication, layered with numerical, verbal, and visual information to describe an uncertain threat. In the hurricane context, graphics are used to communicate the probability of different threats over a forecasting period. While hurricane graphics have been studied in the past, they have not been designed with colorblind-friendly accessibility and localization in mind. This study presents the results of a mixed-method study, testing the perceptions of different color schemes and map overlays on a wind exceedance map graphic with samples of experts (emergency managers and meteorologists) and the public. Nineteen experts from Florida and Louisiana were interviewed about their preferences for and risk perceptions of the design elements of the new wind exceedance graphic. The graphic prototypes were also tested using a public sample (n = 624) from Florida and Louisiana to study participants’ design preferences and risk perceptions. Both expert and public samples preferred a yellow-to-red scheme, though experts thought the yellow-to-red scheme presented the hazard as riskier and the public thought the reds-only scheme was riskier. Experts and the public preferred a map graphic with overlays; they scored a map graphic with overlays as riskier than a version without overlays. Understanding the connection between color scheme preference and risk perception for both experts and the public has important implications on risk communication as new graphics are designed. The conclusion of this study provides avenues for future research for experts who want to apply universal design aspects into hurricane graphics.
Significance Statement
This study investigates user preferences and risk perceptions for a new wind exceedance hurricane graphic designed with universal design principles. Experts (emergency managers and meteorologists) and the public from Florida and Louisiana participated in a mixed-method study, capturing qualitatively and quantitatively how a yellow-to-red and reds-only color scheme, as well as interstate or city overlays, impacted their engagement with the graphic. Studying the design features of forecast graphics from a social science perspective before they are operational is important, as the findings from this study reveal how different groups could perceive the graphic.
Abstract
Map graphics are often used for hazard risk communication, layered with numerical, verbal, and visual information to describe an uncertain threat. In the hurricane context, graphics are used to communicate the probability of different threats over a forecasting period. While hurricane graphics have been studied in the past, they have not been designed with colorblind-friendly accessibility and localization in mind. This study presents the results of a mixed-method study, testing the perceptions of different color schemes and map overlays on a wind exceedance map graphic with samples of experts (emergency managers and meteorologists) and the public. Nineteen experts from Florida and Louisiana were interviewed about their preferences for and risk perceptions of the design elements of the new wind exceedance graphic. The graphic prototypes were also tested using a public sample (n = 624) from Florida and Louisiana to study participants’ design preferences and risk perceptions. Both expert and public samples preferred a yellow-to-red scheme, though experts thought the yellow-to-red scheme presented the hazard as riskier and the public thought the reds-only scheme was riskier. Experts and the public preferred a map graphic with overlays; they scored a map graphic with overlays as riskier than a version without overlays. Understanding the connection between color scheme preference and risk perception for both experts and the public has important implications on risk communication as new graphics are designed. The conclusion of this study provides avenues for future research for experts who want to apply universal design aspects into hurricane graphics.
Significance Statement
This study investigates user preferences and risk perceptions for a new wind exceedance hurricane graphic designed with universal design principles. Experts (emergency managers and meteorologists) and the public from Florida and Louisiana participated in a mixed-method study, capturing qualitatively and quantitatively how a yellow-to-red and reds-only color scheme, as well as interstate or city overlays, impacted their engagement with the graphic. Studying the design features of forecast graphics from a social science perspective before they are operational is important, as the findings from this study reveal how different groups could perceive the graphic.
Abstract
Improving the performance and resilience of the transportation system in cities is an important way to combat climate change. However, the relationship between weather conditions and traffic congestion remains unclear. This study investigates the association between weather conditions and traffic congestion [congestion delay index (CDI)] using a dataset encompassing 98 cities in China from 2015 to 2019. The results reveal that temperature exerts a significant negative effect on CDI, particularly during weekends. Conversely, rain, wind speed, and relative humidity exhibit significant positive effects on CDI. Specifically, traffic congestion would decrease by 6% when the temperature exceeds 25°C, while it increases by 2%–5.6% with rainfall increases on workdays. Besides, the precipitation–CDI relationship shows an inverse U shape, especially on weekends. Although subways could mitigate the impact of temperature on cities compared to those without subways, the supplementary effect is mild on rainy days.
Significance Statement
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses great threats to cities’ transport systems, and understanding the association between weather conditions and traffic congestion is insightful for future transport planning. The results show that traffic congestion would decrease by 6% when the temperature exceeds 25°C, while it increases by 2%–5.6% with rainfall increases on workdays and the association becomes nonlinear on weekends. Besides, cities equipped with subway systems demonstrate greater resilience to hot weather conditions, although rainfall’s impact remains challenging to mitigate.
Abstract
Improving the performance and resilience of the transportation system in cities is an important way to combat climate change. However, the relationship between weather conditions and traffic congestion remains unclear. This study investigates the association between weather conditions and traffic congestion [congestion delay index (CDI)] using a dataset encompassing 98 cities in China from 2015 to 2019. The results reveal that temperature exerts a significant negative effect on CDI, particularly during weekends. Conversely, rain, wind speed, and relative humidity exhibit significant positive effects on CDI. Specifically, traffic congestion would decrease by 6% when the temperature exceeds 25°C, while it increases by 2%–5.6% with rainfall increases on workdays. Besides, the precipitation–CDI relationship shows an inverse U shape, especially on weekends. Although subways could mitigate the impact of temperature on cities compared to those without subways, the supplementary effect is mild on rainy days.
Significance Statement
The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses great threats to cities’ transport systems, and understanding the association between weather conditions and traffic congestion is insightful for future transport planning. The results show that traffic congestion would decrease by 6% when the temperature exceeds 25°C, while it increases by 2%–5.6% with rainfall increases on workdays and the association becomes nonlinear on weekends. Besides, cities equipped with subway systems demonstrate greater resilience to hot weather conditions, although rainfall’s impact remains challenging to mitigate.
Abstract
Temperature-related illness (TRI) encompasses heat-related illness, such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke, and cold-related illness, such as frostbite and hypothermia. TRI is typically the result of exposure to ambient weather conditions; because of this, unhoused individuals are hypothesized to have higher risk of TRI. However, no national epidemiological studies have been completed to determine this risk. The objective of this study was to determine the association between homelessness and emergency department (ED) diagnosis of TRI in the United States. We conducted a cross-sectional study of adult ED visits in the U.S. from 2005 through 2020 using data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS), a nationally representative sample of non-federal ED patient visits. Housing status (housed vs. unhoused) was measured using NHAMCS patient residence category, with blank responses excluded. TRI was defined as ED clinician diagnosis of heat- or cold-related illness using ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine adjusted odds of TRI by housing status. There were 323,606 non-pediatric ED visits in the NHAMCS sample. TRI diagnosis was present in 288 (0.09%) visits. 4099 visits (0.9%) were categorized as unhoused. After adjusting for sex, mental health diagnosis, and alcohol or substance use or use disorder, the odds of TRI diagnosis in unhoused individuals was 4.08 (95% CI 2.09,7.95) compared to housed individuals. We found a higher adjusted odds of TRI diagnosis at an ED visit among unhoused individuals compared with housed individuals.
Abstract
Temperature-related illness (TRI) encompasses heat-related illness, such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke, and cold-related illness, such as frostbite and hypothermia. TRI is typically the result of exposure to ambient weather conditions; because of this, unhoused individuals are hypothesized to have higher risk of TRI. However, no national epidemiological studies have been completed to determine this risk. The objective of this study was to determine the association between homelessness and emergency department (ED) diagnosis of TRI in the United States. We conducted a cross-sectional study of adult ED visits in the U.S. from 2005 through 2020 using data from the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS), a nationally representative sample of non-federal ED patient visits. Housing status (housed vs. unhoused) was measured using NHAMCS patient residence category, with blank responses excluded. TRI was defined as ED clinician diagnosis of heat- or cold-related illness using ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine adjusted odds of TRI by housing status. There were 323,606 non-pediatric ED visits in the NHAMCS sample. TRI diagnosis was present in 288 (0.09%) visits. 4099 visits (0.9%) were categorized as unhoused. After adjusting for sex, mental health diagnosis, and alcohol or substance use or use disorder, the odds of TRI diagnosis in unhoused individuals was 4.08 (95% CI 2.09,7.95) compared to housed individuals. We found a higher adjusted odds of TRI diagnosis at an ED visit among unhoused individuals compared with housed individuals.
Abstract
Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have increasingly played pivotal roles in shaping climate agendas and mobilizing individuals to engage in environmental initiatives. However, the nature of NGOs’ online interaction with users, especially in developing countries, remains largely unexplored. This study focused on the dynamics of engagement between a Chinese NGO, Chinese Weather Enthusiasts (CWE), and Chinese youth on the social media platform of Bilibili. The research comprised two main components. First, named entity recognition was employed to analyze weather-related terms in CWE’s posts on Bilibili and dynamic topic modeling was utilized to uncover shifts in thematic focus. Subsequently, descriptive analysis and negative binomial regression were employed to investigate the correlation between weather types and user engagement metrics. The study unveiled two noteworthy findings: first, CWE posts are closely linked to short-term weather, providing timely content that may meet the public’s demand for climate information. Second, the engagement of Chinese youth users is not affected by extreme weather types. Future research should continue to elucidate strategies that NGOs can employ to enhance online engagement among youth users.
Significance Statement
This study seeks to contribute to the current literature of climate communication by investigating how NGOs engage with Chinese youth on social media, an area that has received scant attention thus far. Focusing on an influential Chinese climate NGO, CWE, and its interactions with Chinese youth on the social media platform of Bilibili, this research sheds lights on strategies to communicate information related to extreme weather to this demographic. Examining factors that influence online user engagement offers both theoretical insights about the mechanisms of climate communication and practical implications for NGOs and policymakers to mobilize youth for environmental initiatives. The findings also underscore the importance of tailoring climate communication to align with the daily experiences of the target audience and public-centric approaches in climate communication strategies.
Abstract
Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have increasingly played pivotal roles in shaping climate agendas and mobilizing individuals to engage in environmental initiatives. However, the nature of NGOs’ online interaction with users, especially in developing countries, remains largely unexplored. This study focused on the dynamics of engagement between a Chinese NGO, Chinese Weather Enthusiasts (CWE), and Chinese youth on the social media platform of Bilibili. The research comprised two main components. First, named entity recognition was employed to analyze weather-related terms in CWE’s posts on Bilibili and dynamic topic modeling was utilized to uncover shifts in thematic focus. Subsequently, descriptive analysis and negative binomial regression were employed to investigate the correlation between weather types and user engagement metrics. The study unveiled two noteworthy findings: first, CWE posts are closely linked to short-term weather, providing timely content that may meet the public’s demand for climate information. Second, the engagement of Chinese youth users is not affected by extreme weather types. Future research should continue to elucidate strategies that NGOs can employ to enhance online engagement among youth users.
Significance Statement
This study seeks to contribute to the current literature of climate communication by investigating how NGOs engage with Chinese youth on social media, an area that has received scant attention thus far. Focusing on an influential Chinese climate NGO, CWE, and its interactions with Chinese youth on the social media platform of Bilibili, this research sheds lights on strategies to communicate information related to extreme weather to this demographic. Examining factors that influence online user engagement offers both theoretical insights about the mechanisms of climate communication and practical implications for NGOs and policymakers to mobilize youth for environmental initiatives. The findings also underscore the importance of tailoring climate communication to align with the daily experiences of the target audience and public-centric approaches in climate communication strategies.
Abstract
This paper analyzes findings from semistructured interviews and focus groups with 31 farmers in the Willamette Valley in which farmers were asked about their needs for climate data and about the usability of a range of outputs from the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), for their soil management practices. Findings indicate that climate and soils data generated from CESM and other Earth system models (ESMs), despite their coarse spatial scale resolutions, can inform farmers’ long-term decisions, but that the data would be more usable if the outputs were provided in a format that allowed farmers to choose the variables and thresholds relevant to their particular needs and if ESMs incorporated farmer practices including residue removal, cover cropping, and tillage levels into the model operations so that farmers could better understand the impacts of their decisions. Findings also suggest that although there is a significant gap in the spatial resolution at which these global ESMs generate data and the spatial resolution needed by farmers to make most decisions, farmers are adept at making scalar adjustments to apply coarse-resolution data to the specifics of their own farm’s microclimate. Thus, our findings suggest that, to support agricultural decision-making, development priorities for ESMs should include developing better representations of agricultural management practices within the models and creating interactive data dashboards or platforms.
Abstract
This paper analyzes findings from semistructured interviews and focus groups with 31 farmers in the Willamette Valley in which farmers were asked about their needs for climate data and about the usability of a range of outputs from the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), for their soil management practices. Findings indicate that climate and soils data generated from CESM and other Earth system models (ESMs), despite their coarse spatial scale resolutions, can inform farmers’ long-term decisions, but that the data would be more usable if the outputs were provided in a format that allowed farmers to choose the variables and thresholds relevant to their particular needs and if ESMs incorporated farmer practices including residue removal, cover cropping, and tillage levels into the model operations so that farmers could better understand the impacts of their decisions. Findings also suggest that although there is a significant gap in the spatial resolution at which these global ESMs generate data and the spatial resolution needed by farmers to make most decisions, farmers are adept at making scalar adjustments to apply coarse-resolution data to the specifics of their own farm’s microclimate. Thus, our findings suggest that, to support agricultural decision-making, development priorities for ESMs should include developing better representations of agricultural management practices within the models and creating interactive data dashboards or platforms.
Abstract
To produce a climate-literate society willing to take action, students must be educated on the causes, changes, impacts, and solutions of climate change. One way to ensure students are educated on climate change is to have robust science standards. However, little is known about the collective climate change standards in the United States. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to conduct an analysis of the U.S. K–12 science standards to uncover where the climate change standards are located in different grade levels and the extent to which the collective U.S. curriculum covers topics of climate change. This study was a qualitative content analysis of the U.S. K–12 climate change standards. The results show that most U.S. climate change standards are found within the high school grade levels and Earth and space science domains. All U.S. states address topics of climate change within their standards; however, general mentions of climate change were cited most often. Finally, the majority of states address both natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Implications for policymakers and educators are included.
Abstract
To produce a climate-literate society willing to take action, students must be educated on the causes, changes, impacts, and solutions of climate change. One way to ensure students are educated on climate change is to have robust science standards. However, little is known about the collective climate change standards in the United States. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to conduct an analysis of the U.S. K–12 science standards to uncover where the climate change standards are located in different grade levels and the extent to which the collective U.S. curriculum covers topics of climate change. This study was a qualitative content analysis of the U.S. K–12 climate change standards. The results show that most U.S. climate change standards are found within the high school grade levels and Earth and space science domains. All U.S. states address topics of climate change within their standards; however, general mentions of climate change were cited most often. Finally, the majority of states address both natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Implications for policymakers and educators are included.
Abstract
The impacts of climate change on health are a critical public health issue, but the association between extreme temperatures and birth outcomes remains poorly understood. This paper links over 1 million birth records from Dongguan, China, between 2004 and 2013, to meteorological data. We investigate the relationship between extreme temperatures and birth outcomes and explore the heterogeneity among different demographic and socioeconomic factors, including maternal migrant status, education level, and mode of delivery. We find that one percentage increase in the number of days exposed to extreme heat during pregnancy is associated with a reduction in birth weight of 2.31 g and a 2% increase in odds of low birth weight (LBW), while exposure to extreme cold temperatures is associated with a reduction in birth weight (0.66 g) and an increase in the risk of LBW (1%). The association between extreme high temperatures and adverse birth outcomes is stronger for groups with disadvantaged social status. Specifically, the migrant group (for extreme heat exposure, local residents, −0.37 g; intraprovincial migrants, −2.75 g; out-of-province migrants, −2.49 g), the less-educated group (for extreme heat exposure, middle school or below, −2.47 g; high school or above, −1.66 g), and the group with vaginal birth [for extreme heat exposure, cesarean sections (C-sections), −1.56 g; vaginal birth, −2.62 g] are more sensitive to extreme weather conditions. Our study provides further evidence about the association of extreme temperatures with birth outcomes and for vulnerable groups of pregnant women.
Abstract
The impacts of climate change on health are a critical public health issue, but the association between extreme temperatures and birth outcomes remains poorly understood. This paper links over 1 million birth records from Dongguan, China, between 2004 and 2013, to meteorological data. We investigate the relationship between extreme temperatures and birth outcomes and explore the heterogeneity among different demographic and socioeconomic factors, including maternal migrant status, education level, and mode of delivery. We find that one percentage increase in the number of days exposed to extreme heat during pregnancy is associated with a reduction in birth weight of 2.31 g and a 2% increase in odds of low birth weight (LBW), while exposure to extreme cold temperatures is associated with a reduction in birth weight (0.66 g) and an increase in the risk of LBW (1%). The association between extreme high temperatures and adverse birth outcomes is stronger for groups with disadvantaged social status. Specifically, the migrant group (for extreme heat exposure, local residents, −0.37 g; intraprovincial migrants, −2.75 g; out-of-province migrants, −2.49 g), the less-educated group (for extreme heat exposure, middle school or below, −2.47 g; high school or above, −1.66 g), and the group with vaginal birth [for extreme heat exposure, cesarean sections (C-sections), −1.56 g; vaginal birth, −2.62 g] are more sensitive to extreme weather conditions. Our study provides further evidence about the association of extreme temperatures with birth outcomes and for vulnerable groups of pregnant women.
Abstract
A violent tornado occurred in Czechia on 24 June 2021, killing six and causing at least 576 injuries. There were more indirect than direct injuries. The tornado was rated 4 on the international Fujita scale (IF4) using a draft version of the IF scale. This was the first violent tornado in Czechia and one of only 17 violent, i.e., (I)F4 or higher, tornadoes that occurred in Europe since 1950. The tornado reached a width of 3.5 km, the widest on record in Europe. The case presents an important opportunity to investigate the impacts of such a strong tornado in the area, where they are rare, no tornado warnings are issued, and where the building standards are different from the typically investigated tornadoes in the United States. We discuss challenges in organizing the damage survey, which took 3 days and involved meteorologists from three countries. A wind damage survey guide to aid mitigating these was written by the European Severe Storms Laboratory and initiated the development of a wind damage surveying app. The damage survey showed that most of the inhabited buildings built using heavy masonry and rigid ceilings did not collapse in IF2/3 winds, but only with IF4 winds. Eyewitness reports collected after the tornado show that many people were not aware of the risk associated with the tornado. Eventually, most people tried to shelter in the most secure part of the house, but it was often too late. This case highlights the need for better communication of tornado risk to the public in Europe.
Abstract
A violent tornado occurred in Czechia on 24 June 2021, killing six and causing at least 576 injuries. There were more indirect than direct injuries. The tornado was rated 4 on the international Fujita scale (IF4) using a draft version of the IF scale. This was the first violent tornado in Czechia and one of only 17 violent, i.e., (I)F4 or higher, tornadoes that occurred in Europe since 1950. The tornado reached a width of 3.5 km, the widest on record in Europe. The case presents an important opportunity to investigate the impacts of such a strong tornado in the area, where they are rare, no tornado warnings are issued, and where the building standards are different from the typically investigated tornadoes in the United States. We discuss challenges in organizing the damage survey, which took 3 days and involved meteorologists from three countries. A wind damage survey guide to aid mitigating these was written by the European Severe Storms Laboratory and initiated the development of a wind damage surveying app. The damage survey showed that most of the inhabited buildings built using heavy masonry and rigid ceilings did not collapse in IF2/3 winds, but only with IF4 winds. Eyewitness reports collected after the tornado show that many people were not aware of the risk associated with the tornado. Eventually, most people tried to shelter in the most secure part of the house, but it was often too late. This case highlights the need for better communication of tornado risk to the public in Europe.
