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Abstract
Broadcast meteorologists are essential in the communication of National Weather Service (NWS) warnings to the public. Therefore, it is imperative to include them in a user-centered approach for the design and implementation of new warning products. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) will modernize the way meteorologists forecast and communicate NWS warning information to the general public using rapidly updating probabilistic hazard information (PHI). Storm-scale PHI consists of probabilistic forecasts for severe wind/hail, tornadoes, and lightning hazards. Hence, NWS warnings would have the capacity to be supplemented by a quantitative or qualitative likelihood of hazard occurrence. The researchers conducting this study wanted to know what broadcast meteorologists thought about the inclusion of this likelihood information and how it could impact their decision-making and communication process. Using a nationwide survey, this team of researchers first asked broadcast meteorologists about their current practices for severe weather coverage using NWS watches and warnings. Next, broadcast meteorologists were introduced to multiple iterations of PHI prototypes and queried for their input. Findings indicated that broadcast meteorologists already face a complex decision-making and communication process under today’s warning paradigm. In addition, respondents were split on whether to explicitly communicate probabilities with their viewers. Respondents’ choices were also somewhat inconclusive regarding nomenclature, definitions of PHI and representations of PHI with warning polygons. These results suggest that PHI should feature user-driven, customizable options to fulfill broadcast meteorologists’ needs and that the iterative nature of the research-and-development process of PHI should continue.
Significance Statement
Broadcast meteorologists are vital communicators of dangerous weather to the public, leading researchers to study them more closely. Using a nationwide survey, this team of researchers wanted to know how broadcast meteorologists talk about tornadoes, large hail, and high winds to their viewers under today’s system of National Weather Service warnings. Survey findings indicated that broadcast meteorologists face a complex decision-making process when communicating dangerous weather. Any effort to modernize the current warning system, such as including hazard probability, should consider this complex process. Modernization should complement the role of broadcast meteorologists to ultimately serve the public and user-driven options should be a key component of any probabilistic information that is included in a future National Weather Service warning system.
Abstract
Broadcast meteorologists are essential in the communication of National Weather Service (NWS) warnings to the public. Therefore, it is imperative to include them in a user-centered approach for the design and implementation of new warning products. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) will modernize the way meteorologists forecast and communicate NWS warning information to the general public using rapidly updating probabilistic hazard information (PHI). Storm-scale PHI consists of probabilistic forecasts for severe wind/hail, tornadoes, and lightning hazards. Hence, NWS warnings would have the capacity to be supplemented by a quantitative or qualitative likelihood of hazard occurrence. The researchers conducting this study wanted to know what broadcast meteorologists thought about the inclusion of this likelihood information and how it could impact their decision-making and communication process. Using a nationwide survey, this team of researchers first asked broadcast meteorologists about their current practices for severe weather coverage using NWS watches and warnings. Next, broadcast meteorologists were introduced to multiple iterations of PHI prototypes and queried for their input. Findings indicated that broadcast meteorologists already face a complex decision-making and communication process under today’s warning paradigm. In addition, respondents were split on whether to explicitly communicate probabilities with their viewers. Respondents’ choices were also somewhat inconclusive regarding nomenclature, definitions of PHI and representations of PHI with warning polygons. These results suggest that PHI should feature user-driven, customizable options to fulfill broadcast meteorologists’ needs and that the iterative nature of the research-and-development process of PHI should continue.
Significance Statement
Broadcast meteorologists are vital communicators of dangerous weather to the public, leading researchers to study them more closely. Using a nationwide survey, this team of researchers wanted to know how broadcast meteorologists talk about tornadoes, large hail, and high winds to their viewers under today’s system of National Weather Service warnings. Survey findings indicated that broadcast meteorologists face a complex decision-making process when communicating dangerous weather. Any effort to modernize the current warning system, such as including hazard probability, should consider this complex process. Modernization should complement the role of broadcast meteorologists to ultimately serve the public and user-driven options should be a key component of any probabilistic information that is included in a future National Weather Service warning system.
Abstract
Although scientists agree that climate change is anthropogenic, differing interpretations of evidence in a highly polarized sociopolitical environment impact how individuals perceive climate change. While prior work suggests that individuals experience climate change through local conditions, there is a lack of consensus on how personal experience with extreme precipitation may alter public opinion on climate change. We combine high-resolution precipitation data at the zip-code level with nationally representative public opinion survey results (n = 4008) that examine beliefs in climate change and the perceived cause. Our findings support relationships between well-established value systems (i.e., partisanship, religion) and socioeconomic status with individual opinions of climate change, showing that these values are influential in opinion formation on climate issues. We also show that experiencing characteristics of atypical precipitation (e.g., more variability than normal, increasing or decreasing trends, or highly recurring extreme events) in a local area are associated with increased belief in anthropogenic climate change. This suggests that individuals in communities that experience greater atypical precipitation may be more accepting of messaging and policy strategies directly aimed at addressing climate change challenges. Thus, communication strategies that leverage individual perception of atypical precipitation at the local level may help tap into certain “experiential” processing methods, making climate change feel less distant. These strategies may help reduce polarization and motivate mitigation and adaptation actions.
Significance Statement
Public acceptance for anthropogenic climate change is hindered by how related issues are presented, diverse value systems, and information-processing biases. Personal experiences with extreme weather may act as a salient cue that impacts individuals’ perceptions of climate change. We couple a large, nationally representative public opinion dataset with station precipitation data at the zip-code level in the United States. Results are nuanced but suggest that anomalous and variable precipitation in a local area may be interpreted as evidence for anthropogenic climate change. So, relating atypical local precipitation conditions to climate change may help tap into individuals’ experiential processing, sidestep polarization, and tailor communications at the local level.
Abstract
Although scientists agree that climate change is anthropogenic, differing interpretations of evidence in a highly polarized sociopolitical environment impact how individuals perceive climate change. While prior work suggests that individuals experience climate change through local conditions, there is a lack of consensus on how personal experience with extreme precipitation may alter public opinion on climate change. We combine high-resolution precipitation data at the zip-code level with nationally representative public opinion survey results (n = 4008) that examine beliefs in climate change and the perceived cause. Our findings support relationships between well-established value systems (i.e., partisanship, religion) and socioeconomic status with individual opinions of climate change, showing that these values are influential in opinion formation on climate issues. We also show that experiencing characteristics of atypical precipitation (e.g., more variability than normal, increasing or decreasing trends, or highly recurring extreme events) in a local area are associated with increased belief in anthropogenic climate change. This suggests that individuals in communities that experience greater atypical precipitation may be more accepting of messaging and policy strategies directly aimed at addressing climate change challenges. Thus, communication strategies that leverage individual perception of atypical precipitation at the local level may help tap into certain “experiential” processing methods, making climate change feel less distant. These strategies may help reduce polarization and motivate mitigation and adaptation actions.
Significance Statement
Public acceptance for anthropogenic climate change is hindered by how related issues are presented, diverse value systems, and information-processing biases. Personal experiences with extreme weather may act as a salient cue that impacts individuals’ perceptions of climate change. We couple a large, nationally representative public opinion dataset with station precipitation data at the zip-code level in the United States. Results are nuanced but suggest that anomalous and variable precipitation in a local area may be interpreted as evidence for anthropogenic climate change. So, relating atypical local precipitation conditions to climate change may help tap into individuals’ experiential processing, sidestep polarization, and tailor communications at the local level.
Abstract
Since 2019, National Weather Service (NWS) offices have been able to issue 360-character Wireless Emergency Alert (“WEA360”) messages for tornadoes. NWS is now considering changing from a “deterministic” to a “probabilistic” warning paradigm. That change could possibly influence how WEA360 messages for tornado are issued in the future. Recent experimental studies have found that probabilistic hazard information (PHI) forecast graphics improve consumers’ risk perception for tornadoes, but findings from these studies concerning whether PHI forecast graphics improve people’s protective action decision-making are mixed. The present study therefore investigated how mock PHI-enhanced WEA360 messages might influence people’s risk perception and protective action decision-making. Analysis of qualitative data gathered from a combination of questionnaire and focus group interview methods conducted in collaboration with 31 community members in Denver, Colorado, indicated that inclusion of PHI forecast graphics within WEA360 messages elicited high levels of understanding and message believability but did not consistently lead to appropriate precautionary intent. Because warning response is a complex social phenomenon, PHI may not significantly improve protective action decision-making if PHI forecast graphics are eventually presented to consumers via the Wireless Emergency Alerts system. Factors that PHI stakeholders should consider before the adoption of PHI-enhanced WEA360 messages for consumers are discussed.
Significance Statement
This study examines how consumers respond to and talk about mock WEA360 messages for tornadoes that contain embedded PHI forecast graphics. As NWS considers moving to a probabilistic warning paradigm, stakeholders will need to determine how PHI forecast graphics might be communicated directly to consumers, if at all. Our findings suggest that combining WEA360 messages with PHI forecast graphics creates challenges and complexities related to consumers’ assessment of personal risk and protective action decision-making. Overall, the study suggests that any future PHI-enhanced WEA360 messages provided directly to consumers, if at all, must avoid discrepancies (even subtle) between the level of risk represented by the PHI forecast graphic and the protective action guidance included in the text of the messages.
Abstract
Since 2019, National Weather Service (NWS) offices have been able to issue 360-character Wireless Emergency Alert (“WEA360”) messages for tornadoes. NWS is now considering changing from a “deterministic” to a “probabilistic” warning paradigm. That change could possibly influence how WEA360 messages for tornado are issued in the future. Recent experimental studies have found that probabilistic hazard information (PHI) forecast graphics improve consumers’ risk perception for tornadoes, but findings from these studies concerning whether PHI forecast graphics improve people’s protective action decision-making are mixed. The present study therefore investigated how mock PHI-enhanced WEA360 messages might influence people’s risk perception and protective action decision-making. Analysis of qualitative data gathered from a combination of questionnaire and focus group interview methods conducted in collaboration with 31 community members in Denver, Colorado, indicated that inclusion of PHI forecast graphics within WEA360 messages elicited high levels of understanding and message believability but did not consistently lead to appropriate precautionary intent. Because warning response is a complex social phenomenon, PHI may not significantly improve protective action decision-making if PHI forecast graphics are eventually presented to consumers via the Wireless Emergency Alerts system. Factors that PHI stakeholders should consider before the adoption of PHI-enhanced WEA360 messages for consumers are discussed.
Significance Statement
This study examines how consumers respond to and talk about mock WEA360 messages for tornadoes that contain embedded PHI forecast graphics. As NWS considers moving to a probabilistic warning paradigm, stakeholders will need to determine how PHI forecast graphics might be communicated directly to consumers, if at all. Our findings suggest that combining WEA360 messages with PHI forecast graphics creates challenges and complexities related to consumers’ assessment of personal risk and protective action decision-making. Overall, the study suggests that any future PHI-enhanced WEA360 messages provided directly to consumers, if at all, must avoid discrepancies (even subtle) between the level of risk represented by the PHI forecast graphic and the protective action guidance included in the text of the messages.
Abstract
Climate change has forced the world into a state of emergency, but the urgency can also become an opportunity to strengthen the focus on sustainable development and reduce social vulnerability. For developing economies, the first and foremost challenge regarding climate change is to address the knowledge gap on sustainable development and vulnerability. Besides this, evidence-based inputs are needed for the policies and programs that intend to enhance the adaptive capacity and social capital from the gender perspective in comparatively more disaster-prone districts of the country. The environmental impact in terms of socioeconomic conditions specifically pertaining to rural areas of Pakistan cannot be ignored. Natural events such as floods and droughts have raised the question of the social and socioeconomic vulnerability of the rural communities. This paper is an attempt toward understanding that everyone who is affected will be impacted differently by climate change both within the same gender and between different genders, including gender minorities. In addition, an attempt is made to identify the drivers of gender-disaggregated social vulnerability in selected disaster-prone rural communities of the district of Dadu, Sindh Province, Pakistan. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques are employed to examine the differences in gender perception on climate change, experiences related to climate change, disasters, and impacts on their lives. Women and households headed by them are found to be relatively more vulnerable due to their socioeconomic and social status in the rural areas of Pakistan. The paper gives policy directives that not only address the measures for reduction in climate change impacts but also suggest the development of effective disaster management programs, policies, and strategies.
Abstract
Climate change has forced the world into a state of emergency, but the urgency can also become an opportunity to strengthen the focus on sustainable development and reduce social vulnerability. For developing economies, the first and foremost challenge regarding climate change is to address the knowledge gap on sustainable development and vulnerability. Besides this, evidence-based inputs are needed for the policies and programs that intend to enhance the adaptive capacity and social capital from the gender perspective in comparatively more disaster-prone districts of the country. The environmental impact in terms of socioeconomic conditions specifically pertaining to rural areas of Pakistan cannot be ignored. Natural events such as floods and droughts have raised the question of the social and socioeconomic vulnerability of the rural communities. This paper is an attempt toward understanding that everyone who is affected will be impacted differently by climate change both within the same gender and between different genders, including gender minorities. In addition, an attempt is made to identify the drivers of gender-disaggregated social vulnerability in selected disaster-prone rural communities of the district of Dadu, Sindh Province, Pakistan. Both quantitative and qualitative techniques are employed to examine the differences in gender perception on climate change, experiences related to climate change, disasters, and impacts on their lives. Women and households headed by them are found to be relatively more vulnerable due to their socioeconomic and social status in the rural areas of Pakistan. The paper gives policy directives that not only address the measures for reduction in climate change impacts but also suggest the development of effective disaster management programs, policies, and strategies.
Abstract
This study quantified greenhouse gas emissions from indirect activities along the whole value chain of supermarket retailing to derive mitigation measures. Both direct and indirect greenhouse gas emission sources of a supermarket retailing value chain were identified and calculated using the national guidelines for estimating the carbon footprint for organizations, based on a total area of 13 248 m2 and operating 12 h per day. A scoring matrix was applied that considered the magnitude of emissions, the level of influence, and the risks or opportunities associated with business operations. The scoring results indicated a major contribution from value chain activities that should be included in any greenhouse gas analysis. The calculation revealed that the greenhouse gas emissions from the value chain activities were 33 784 t CO2 emitted yr−1 or 94% of total emissions. The key contributors were linked to the production of purchased goods and the management of food waste. Thus, value chain activities should not be overlooked in developing efficient greenhouse gas management strategies. Furthermore, purchased products and services carrying a carbon-reduction label should be given priority, and the application of artificial intelligence and innovation could be considered to reduce the amount of food waste from expired goods.
Abstract
This study quantified greenhouse gas emissions from indirect activities along the whole value chain of supermarket retailing to derive mitigation measures. Both direct and indirect greenhouse gas emission sources of a supermarket retailing value chain were identified and calculated using the national guidelines for estimating the carbon footprint for organizations, based on a total area of 13 248 m2 and operating 12 h per day. A scoring matrix was applied that considered the magnitude of emissions, the level of influence, and the risks or opportunities associated with business operations. The scoring results indicated a major contribution from value chain activities that should be included in any greenhouse gas analysis. The calculation revealed that the greenhouse gas emissions from the value chain activities were 33 784 t CO2 emitted yr−1 or 94% of total emissions. The key contributors were linked to the production of purchased goods and the management of food waste. Thus, value chain activities should not be overlooked in developing efficient greenhouse gas management strategies. Furthermore, purchased products and services carrying a carbon-reduction label should be given priority, and the application of artificial intelligence and innovation could be considered to reduce the amount of food waste from expired goods.
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is considered to be one of the biggest threats to humanity in this century, with severe direct or indirect impacts on people’s lives. Such a significant threat causes serious concern, which can motivate low-level proenvironmental behavior and lead to serious health problems at high levels. Therefore, determining the level of this concern is crucial. Outdoor recreation participants, who are constantly in contact with nature, can closely witness the effects of ACC due to these interactions. Therefore, evaluating their ACC worry is essential. In this study, the aim was to determine the ACC worry levels of outdoor recreation participants. The research data were collected through an online survey from a sample reached through convenience sampling method throughout Türkiye. The data were analyzed using analysis of moment structures (AMOS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The relationship between independent variables and ACC concern was revealed through ordinal logistic regression. The research found that the participants had a high level of concern about ACC, with a score of 3.50. It was also determined that this level of concern was influenced by variables such as the type of outdoor recreation, the duration of participation in outdoor recreation, and exposure to the effects of ACC. Considering that ACC can motivate proenvironmental behaviors, the research suggests that outdoor recreational participants with high levels of concern about ACC should not be ignored in the adaptation process.
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is considered to be one of the biggest threats to humanity in this century, with severe direct or indirect impacts on people’s lives. Such a significant threat causes serious concern, which can motivate low-level proenvironmental behavior and lead to serious health problems at high levels. Therefore, determining the level of this concern is crucial. Outdoor recreation participants, who are constantly in contact with nature, can closely witness the effects of ACC due to these interactions. Therefore, evaluating their ACC worry is essential. In this study, the aim was to determine the ACC worry levels of outdoor recreation participants. The research data were collected through an online survey from a sample reached through convenience sampling method throughout Türkiye. The data were analyzed using analysis of moment structures (AMOS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. The relationship between independent variables and ACC concern was revealed through ordinal logistic regression. The research found that the participants had a high level of concern about ACC, with a score of 3.50. It was also determined that this level of concern was influenced by variables such as the type of outdoor recreation, the duration of participation in outdoor recreation, and exposure to the effects of ACC. Considering that ACC can motivate proenvironmental behaviors, the research suggests that outdoor recreational participants with high levels of concern about ACC should not be ignored in the adaptation process.
Abstract
Extreme rainfall events are hazardous and costly. They have increased in parts of the United States, and climate models project that trend to continue. Effective communication of potential threats and impacts associated with extreme rainfall events is one of the foci of a weather forecaster’s job and aligns with the National Weather Service (NWS)’s mission to protect life and property. This research investigated how NWS forecasters processed and communicated information about extreme rainfall events that occurred in the south-central United States between 2015 and 2019. The study also explored forecasters’ perceptions of the relationship between the events and climate change and whether those perceptions impacted the forecasts, including how forecast information was communicated. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 21 NWS forecasters about how they internally processed and externally communicated model outliers and anomalous rainfall events. Thematic analysis of the interview data identified components of sensemaking and decision-making conceptual frameworks as well as principles of forecasting. These components were then combined to create an extreme event forecast communication process model to illustrate the findings. Although forecast and communication processes are complex and vary between offices and forecasters, the communication process model presents a high-level conceptualization of how forecasters translate highly technical and disparate material into usable information for their audiences within the context of rare meteorological events.
Significance Statement
This study presents an extreme event forecast communication process model that helps to explain how National Weather Service forecasters process and communicate extreme rainfall events. Forecasters were interviewed about their experience with extreme rainfall events. Effective communication of such events is important because they can lead to significant, and sometimes deadly, impacts. In the future, the extreme event forecast communication process model might provide a framework for best practices and be incorporated into forecaster training materials. Additional research is needed to determine whether the model applies to regions outside the south-central United States.
Abstract
Extreme rainfall events are hazardous and costly. They have increased in parts of the United States, and climate models project that trend to continue. Effective communication of potential threats and impacts associated with extreme rainfall events is one of the foci of a weather forecaster’s job and aligns with the National Weather Service (NWS)’s mission to protect life and property. This research investigated how NWS forecasters processed and communicated information about extreme rainfall events that occurred in the south-central United States between 2015 and 2019. The study also explored forecasters’ perceptions of the relationship between the events and climate change and whether those perceptions impacted the forecasts, including how forecast information was communicated. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 21 NWS forecasters about how they internally processed and externally communicated model outliers and anomalous rainfall events. Thematic analysis of the interview data identified components of sensemaking and decision-making conceptual frameworks as well as principles of forecasting. These components were then combined to create an extreme event forecast communication process model to illustrate the findings. Although forecast and communication processes are complex and vary between offices and forecasters, the communication process model presents a high-level conceptualization of how forecasters translate highly technical and disparate material into usable information for their audiences within the context of rare meteorological events.
Significance Statement
This study presents an extreme event forecast communication process model that helps to explain how National Weather Service forecasters process and communicate extreme rainfall events. Forecasters were interviewed about their experience with extreme rainfall events. Effective communication of such events is important because they can lead to significant, and sometimes deadly, impacts. In the future, the extreme event forecast communication process model might provide a framework for best practices and be incorporated into forecaster training materials. Additional research is needed to determine whether the model applies to regions outside the south-central United States.
