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Abstract
The Republic of the Marshall Islands is beginning to feel the impacts of climate change. Its geography and low-lying landscape have put it at a disadvantage to fight the coming seas. National leadership and environmental groups continue to provide locals with communications about the challenges to come. While climate change is a concept of science, there may be local barriers to its public internalization. This study seeks to determine if there is a relationship between fundamentalist Christian views, climate change communication, and Marshallese perceptions of global environmental change. The Marshall Islands has a deeply religious population, the majority of whom are fundamentalist Christians. A mixed-methods survey is employed to assess the impact that the belief in biblical literalism, the Noahic Covenant, and apocalyptic narratives exert over Marshallese views of environmental change. Results demonstrate that nonelite Marshallese inhabitants do not see climate change as an existential threat but rather as a sign of the end times and the Second Coming of Christ. This has significant implications for human security and migration outcomes if current climate communication methods are ineffective with respect to urgency. If locals see climate impacts through a religious lens, climate change communication must incorporate biblical concepts and address contextual understandings.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to investigate how biblical literalism impacts the way in which Marshall Islanders interpret information on climate change and its impacts. Religion is a strong factor in the development of cosmology and/or worldview of all peoples; it provides a lens through which people understand the events of their existence. Our results show that climate impacts are interpreted by the followers of some literalist sects to be signs of biblical apocalypse. Viewing climate impacts as divine will pose a challenge to the need for relocation planning, adaptation, and personal safety.
Abstract
The Republic of the Marshall Islands is beginning to feel the impacts of climate change. Its geography and low-lying landscape have put it at a disadvantage to fight the coming seas. National leadership and environmental groups continue to provide locals with communications about the challenges to come. While climate change is a concept of science, there may be local barriers to its public internalization. This study seeks to determine if there is a relationship between fundamentalist Christian views, climate change communication, and Marshallese perceptions of global environmental change. The Marshall Islands has a deeply religious population, the majority of whom are fundamentalist Christians. A mixed-methods survey is employed to assess the impact that the belief in biblical literalism, the Noahic Covenant, and apocalyptic narratives exert over Marshallese views of environmental change. Results demonstrate that nonelite Marshallese inhabitants do not see climate change as an existential threat but rather as a sign of the end times and the Second Coming of Christ. This has significant implications for human security and migration outcomes if current climate communication methods are ineffective with respect to urgency. If locals see climate impacts through a religious lens, climate change communication must incorporate biblical concepts and address contextual understandings.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to investigate how biblical literalism impacts the way in which Marshall Islanders interpret information on climate change and its impacts. Religion is a strong factor in the development of cosmology and/or worldview of all peoples; it provides a lens through which people understand the events of their existence. Our results show that climate impacts are interpreted by the followers of some literalist sects to be signs of biblical apocalypse. Viewing climate impacts as divine will pose a challenge to the need for relocation planning, adaptation, and personal safety.
Abstract
A “protracted” El Niño episode occurred from March–April 2018 to April–May 2020. It was manifested by the interlinked Indo-Pacific influences of two components of El Niño phases. Positive Indian Ocean dipoles (IODs) in 2018 and 2019 suppressed the formation of northwest cloud bands and southern Australia rainfall, and a persistent teleconnection, with enhanced convection generated by positive Niño-4 region sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and strong subsidence over eastern Australia, exacerbated this Australian drought. As with “classical” El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which usually last 12–18 months, protracted ENSO episodes, which last for more than 2 yr, show a similar pattern of impacts on society and the environment across the Indo-Pacific domain, and often extend globally. The second half of this study puts the impact of the 2018–20 protracted El Niño episode on both the Australian terrestrial agricultural and marine ecophysiological environments in a broader context. These impacts are often modulated not only by the direct effects of ENSO events and episodes, but by interrelated local to region ocean–atmosphere interactions and synoptic weather patterns. Even though the indices of protracted ENSO episodes are often weaker in magnitude than those of major classical ENSO events, it is the longer duration of the former that poses its own set of problems. Thus, there is an urgent need to investigate the potential to forecast protracted ENSO episodes, particularly when the mid-2020 to current 2022 period has been experiencing a major protracted La Niña episode with near-global impacts.
Significance Statement
The major 2018–20 Australian drought and its terrestrial and marine impacts were caused by a “protracted” El Niño episode, exacerbated by global warming. Indo-Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions resulted in a persistent positive western Pacific Niño-4 sea surface temperature anomaly during the period 2018–20 and positive Indian Ocean dipoles (IODs) in 2018 and 2019. These suppressed rainfall across eastern Australia and limited northwest Australian cloud band rainfall across southern Australia. Australian agricultural and ecophysiological impacts caused by protracted El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes permeate, overstress, and expose society, infrastructure, and livelihoods to longer temporal-scale pressures than those experienced during shorter “classical” ENSO events. Thus, there is an urgent need to investigate the potential to forecast protracted ENSO episodes.
Abstract
A “protracted” El Niño episode occurred from March–April 2018 to April–May 2020. It was manifested by the interlinked Indo-Pacific influences of two components of El Niño phases. Positive Indian Ocean dipoles (IODs) in 2018 and 2019 suppressed the formation of northwest cloud bands and southern Australia rainfall, and a persistent teleconnection, with enhanced convection generated by positive Niño-4 region sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and strong subsidence over eastern Australia, exacerbated this Australian drought. As with “classical” El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, which usually last 12–18 months, protracted ENSO episodes, which last for more than 2 yr, show a similar pattern of impacts on society and the environment across the Indo-Pacific domain, and often extend globally. The second half of this study puts the impact of the 2018–20 protracted El Niño episode on both the Australian terrestrial agricultural and marine ecophysiological environments in a broader context. These impacts are often modulated not only by the direct effects of ENSO events and episodes, but by interrelated local to region ocean–atmosphere interactions and synoptic weather patterns. Even though the indices of protracted ENSO episodes are often weaker in magnitude than those of major classical ENSO events, it is the longer duration of the former that poses its own set of problems. Thus, there is an urgent need to investigate the potential to forecast protracted ENSO episodes, particularly when the mid-2020 to current 2022 period has been experiencing a major protracted La Niña episode with near-global impacts.
Significance Statement
The major 2018–20 Australian drought and its terrestrial and marine impacts were caused by a “protracted” El Niño episode, exacerbated by global warming. Indo-Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions resulted in a persistent positive western Pacific Niño-4 sea surface temperature anomaly during the period 2018–20 and positive Indian Ocean dipoles (IODs) in 2018 and 2019. These suppressed rainfall across eastern Australia and limited northwest Australian cloud band rainfall across southern Australia. Australian agricultural and ecophysiological impacts caused by protracted El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes permeate, overstress, and expose society, infrastructure, and livelihoods to longer temporal-scale pressures than those experienced during shorter “classical” ENSO events. Thus, there is an urgent need to investigate the potential to forecast protracted ENSO episodes.
Abstract
As a result of climate change, extreme precipitation events are likely to become more common in Oklahoma, requiring cities and municipalities to plan for managing this extra water. There are multiple types of practitioners within communities who are responsible for overseeing planning for the future, including stormwater and floodplain management. These practitioners may be able to integrate weather and climate information into their decision-making to help them prepare for heavy precipitation events and their impacts. Floodplain managers from central and eastern Oklahoma were interviewed to learn what information they currently use and how it informs their decision-making. When making decisions in the short term, floodplain managers relied on weather forecasts; for long-term decisions, other factors, such as constrained budgets or the power of county officials, had more influence than specific climate predictions or projections. On all time scales, social networks and prior experience with flooding informed floodplain managers’ decisions and planning. Overall, information about weather and climate is just one component of floodplain managers’ decision-making processes. The atmospheric science community could work more collaboratively with practitioners so that information about weather and climate is more useful and, therefore, more relevant to the types of decisions that floodplain managers make.
Abstract
As a result of climate change, extreme precipitation events are likely to become more common in Oklahoma, requiring cities and municipalities to plan for managing this extra water. There are multiple types of practitioners within communities who are responsible for overseeing planning for the future, including stormwater and floodplain management. These practitioners may be able to integrate weather and climate information into their decision-making to help them prepare for heavy precipitation events and their impacts. Floodplain managers from central and eastern Oklahoma were interviewed to learn what information they currently use and how it informs their decision-making. When making decisions in the short term, floodplain managers relied on weather forecasts; for long-term decisions, other factors, such as constrained budgets or the power of county officials, had more influence than specific climate predictions or projections. On all time scales, social networks and prior experience with flooding informed floodplain managers’ decisions and planning. Overall, information about weather and climate is just one component of floodplain managers’ decision-making processes. The atmospheric science community could work more collaboratively with practitioners so that information about weather and climate is more useful and, therefore, more relevant to the types of decisions that floodplain managers make.
Abstract
Communicating the threat of severe winter weather is not simply a matter of the number of inches of snow or degrees of cold; it also considers the potential impacts of the storm. The winter storm severity index (WSSI) is a graphical product from the National Weather Service that presents anticipated impacts from forecast winter weather for a range of winter conditions. To assess the utility of the WSSI and how an impact-based winter weather forecast product is interpreted and used to inform decision-making, a mixed-methods social science study was conducted by the Nurture Nature Center in coordination with the Weather Prediction Center. Through focus groups and surveys, testing in the Hydrometeorological Testbed, and iterations on design and category descriptions, several themes emerged about how professional stakeholders understand, interpret, and use this product for communicating about impending winter weather. There is perceived utility in the WSSI for situational awareness and as part of a package of other information to inform decision-making. However, there is variability in interpretations of impacts, resulting from differences in geography, community readiness, and experience, among other factors, which creates complications in communicating the forecast. Furthermore, many users seek quantities related to winter weather, suggesting that education about what impact-based products include and what data are shown is necessary. Understanding the factors that influence perspectives on impact levels and the variable needs for winter weather information across regions improves forecasters’ abilities to effectively communicate and provide critical information that helps end users prepare for severe winter weather.
Significance Statement
Effectively communicating severe winter weather is critical to supporting communities in being prepared for and mitigating weather-related losses and damages. The winter storm severity index focuses on impacts to provide awareness of impending winter weather, information that is useful but not always interpreted consistently, requiring an understanding of factors influencing perspectives on impact levels and user education.
Abstract
Communicating the threat of severe winter weather is not simply a matter of the number of inches of snow or degrees of cold; it also considers the potential impacts of the storm. The winter storm severity index (WSSI) is a graphical product from the National Weather Service that presents anticipated impacts from forecast winter weather for a range of winter conditions. To assess the utility of the WSSI and how an impact-based winter weather forecast product is interpreted and used to inform decision-making, a mixed-methods social science study was conducted by the Nurture Nature Center in coordination with the Weather Prediction Center. Through focus groups and surveys, testing in the Hydrometeorological Testbed, and iterations on design and category descriptions, several themes emerged about how professional stakeholders understand, interpret, and use this product for communicating about impending winter weather. There is perceived utility in the WSSI for situational awareness and as part of a package of other information to inform decision-making. However, there is variability in interpretations of impacts, resulting from differences in geography, community readiness, and experience, among other factors, which creates complications in communicating the forecast. Furthermore, many users seek quantities related to winter weather, suggesting that education about what impact-based products include and what data are shown is necessary. Understanding the factors that influence perspectives on impact levels and the variable needs for winter weather information across regions improves forecasters’ abilities to effectively communicate and provide critical information that helps end users prepare for severe winter weather.
Significance Statement
Effectively communicating severe winter weather is critical to supporting communities in being prepared for and mitigating weather-related losses and damages. The winter storm severity index focuses on impacts to provide awareness of impending winter weather, information that is useful but not always interpreted consistently, requiring an understanding of factors influencing perspectives on impact levels and user education.
Abstract
Social science studies of weather and natural hazards have examined in depth the sources of information individuals use in response to a disaster. This research has primarily focused on information sources in isolation and as they relate to severe weather. Thus, less research has examined how individuals use information acquisition strategies during routine times. This paper addresses this limitation by examining patterns of routine weather information source usage. Using three unique survey datasets and latent class analysis, we find that weather information source usage can be summarized by a limited number of coherent classes. Importantly, our results suggest that weather information types, or classes, are generally consistent across datasets and samples. We also find demographic determinants, particularly age, help to explain class membership; older respondents were more likely to belong to classes that are less reliant on technology-based information sources. Income and education also were related to more complex or comprehensive information use strategies. Results suggest that the prevalent view of single-source information usage in previous research may not be adequate for understanding how individuals access information, in both routine and extreme contexts.
Abstract
Social science studies of weather and natural hazards have examined in depth the sources of information individuals use in response to a disaster. This research has primarily focused on information sources in isolation and as they relate to severe weather. Thus, less research has examined how individuals use information acquisition strategies during routine times. This paper addresses this limitation by examining patterns of routine weather information source usage. Using three unique survey datasets and latent class analysis, we find that weather information source usage can be summarized by a limited number of coherent classes. Importantly, our results suggest that weather information types, or classes, are generally consistent across datasets and samples. We also find demographic determinants, particularly age, help to explain class membership; older respondents were more likely to belong to classes that are less reliant on technology-based information sources. Income and education also were related to more complex or comprehensive information use strategies. Results suggest that the prevalent view of single-source information usage in previous research may not be adequate for understanding how individuals access information, in both routine and extreme contexts.
Abstract
When forecasts for a major weather event begin days in advance, updates may be more accurate but inconsistent with the original forecast. Evidence suggests that resulting inconsistency may reduce user trust. However, adding an uncertainty estimate to the forecast may attenuate any loss of trust due to forecast inconsistency, as has been shown with forecast inaccuracy. To evaluate this hypothesis, this experiment tested the impact on trust of adding probabilistic snow-accumulation forecasts to single-value forecasts in a series of original and revised forecast pairs (based on historical records) that varied in both consistency and accuracy. Participants rated their trust in the forecasts and used them to make school-closure decisions. One-half of the participants received single-value forecasts, and one-half also received the probability of 6 in. or more (decision threshold in the assigned task). As with previous research, forecast inaccuracy was detrimental to trust, although probabilistic forecasts attenuated the effect. Moreover, the inclusion of probabilistic forecasts allowed participants to make economically better decisions. Surprisingly, in this study inconsistency increased rather than decreased trust, perhaps because it alerted participants to uncertainty and led them to make more cautious decisions. Furthermore, the positive effect of inconsistency on trust was enhanced by the inclusion of probabilistic forecast. This work has important implications for practical settings, suggesting that both probabilistic forecasts and forecast inconsistency provide useful information to decision-makers. Therefore, members of the public may benefit from well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and newer, more reliable information.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study was to clarify how explicit uncertainty information and forecast inconsistency impact trust and decision-making in the context of sequential forecasts from the same source. This is important because trust is critical for effective risk communication. In the absence of trust, people may not use available information and subsequently may put themselves and others at greater-than necessary risk. Our results suggest that updating forecasts when newer, more reliable information is available and providing reliable uncertainty estimates can support user trust and decision-making.
Abstract
When forecasts for a major weather event begin days in advance, updates may be more accurate but inconsistent with the original forecast. Evidence suggests that resulting inconsistency may reduce user trust. However, adding an uncertainty estimate to the forecast may attenuate any loss of trust due to forecast inconsistency, as has been shown with forecast inaccuracy. To evaluate this hypothesis, this experiment tested the impact on trust of adding probabilistic snow-accumulation forecasts to single-value forecasts in a series of original and revised forecast pairs (based on historical records) that varied in both consistency and accuracy. Participants rated their trust in the forecasts and used them to make school-closure decisions. One-half of the participants received single-value forecasts, and one-half also received the probability of 6 in. or more (decision threshold in the assigned task). As with previous research, forecast inaccuracy was detrimental to trust, although probabilistic forecasts attenuated the effect. Moreover, the inclusion of probabilistic forecasts allowed participants to make economically better decisions. Surprisingly, in this study inconsistency increased rather than decreased trust, perhaps because it alerted participants to uncertainty and led them to make more cautious decisions. Furthermore, the positive effect of inconsistency on trust was enhanced by the inclusion of probabilistic forecast. This work has important implications for practical settings, suggesting that both probabilistic forecasts and forecast inconsistency provide useful information to decision-makers. Therefore, members of the public may benefit from well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and newer, more reliable information.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study was to clarify how explicit uncertainty information and forecast inconsistency impact trust and decision-making in the context of sequential forecasts from the same source. This is important because trust is critical for effective risk communication. In the absence of trust, people may not use available information and subsequently may put themselves and others at greater-than necessary risk. Our results suggest that updating forecasts when newer, more reliable information is available and providing reliable uncertainty estimates can support user trust and decision-making.
Abstract
South Florida experiences some of the highest coastal hurricane vulnerability in the United States. Mobile home communities in south Florida are particularly vulnerable to hurricanes due to the weaker structural integrity of the home or land and a mix of structural and sociodemographic factors. A mixed-methods study was conducted to assess hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and decision-making among permanent mobile home park (MHP) residents in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. Return-by-mail surveys were distributed in July 2016 after several years of nominal hurricane activity in south Florida (and before Hurricane Matthew’s formation in September 2016), and focus groups were conducted at MHPs in May 2018, eight months after Hurricane Irma’s September 2017 landfall. Quantitative analysis of 44 in-person and 57 return-by-mail survey responses revealed that respondents tended to be older, retired, or unemployed and had modest levels of education, with many expressing forms of social- and structural-level hurricane risk before Hurricane Matthew. Qualitative analysis of six focus group discussions conducted after Hurricane Irma revealed that the constraints and vulnerabilities experienced by residents coalesced into several primary themes related to preparation, evacuation, assistance, stress and anxiety, tree concerns, and recovery. Participants specifically highlighted their concerns about tree hazards, damages, and maintenance issues arising before, during, and after hurricanes in MHPs. These results build on the scholarship on hurricane risk by underscoring the structural and social vulnerability of residents living in MHPs that constrain building resilience, adaptive capacity, community restoration efforts, and advocating for policy changes.
Significance Statement
This study aims to understand local hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and vulnerabilities among residents of mobile home parks after a decade-long hurricane drought in south Florida and also to understand the barriers residents faced after a major hurricane. A hurricane drought is critical to study because it can erode individual and community-level preparedness. Residents of mobile home parks may experience more flooding, higher winds, tornadoes, and other dangers during hurricanes. Residents also face county-, neighborhood-, and household-level structural vulnerabilities that restrict their options related to hurricane preparedness, safety during a storm, and resilience in its aftermath. Our study uses various forms of data collection to obtain insights from permanent residents of mobile home parks in south Florida. In addition, it discusses the social and economic disadvantages and opportunities that policy makers can address in climate change risk management.
Abstract
South Florida experiences some of the highest coastal hurricane vulnerability in the United States. Mobile home communities in south Florida are particularly vulnerable to hurricanes due to the weaker structural integrity of the home or land and a mix of structural and sociodemographic factors. A mixed-methods study was conducted to assess hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and decision-making among permanent mobile home park (MHP) residents in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. Return-by-mail surveys were distributed in July 2016 after several years of nominal hurricane activity in south Florida (and before Hurricane Matthew’s formation in September 2016), and focus groups were conducted at MHPs in May 2018, eight months after Hurricane Irma’s September 2017 landfall. Quantitative analysis of 44 in-person and 57 return-by-mail survey responses revealed that respondents tended to be older, retired, or unemployed and had modest levels of education, with many expressing forms of social- and structural-level hurricane risk before Hurricane Matthew. Qualitative analysis of six focus group discussions conducted after Hurricane Irma revealed that the constraints and vulnerabilities experienced by residents coalesced into several primary themes related to preparation, evacuation, assistance, stress and anxiety, tree concerns, and recovery. Participants specifically highlighted their concerns about tree hazards, damages, and maintenance issues arising before, during, and after hurricanes in MHPs. These results build on the scholarship on hurricane risk by underscoring the structural and social vulnerability of residents living in MHPs that constrain building resilience, adaptive capacity, community restoration efforts, and advocating for policy changes.
Significance Statement
This study aims to understand local hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and vulnerabilities among residents of mobile home parks after a decade-long hurricane drought in south Florida and also to understand the barriers residents faced after a major hurricane. A hurricane drought is critical to study because it can erode individual and community-level preparedness. Residents of mobile home parks may experience more flooding, higher winds, tornadoes, and other dangers during hurricanes. Residents also face county-, neighborhood-, and household-level structural vulnerabilities that restrict their options related to hurricane preparedness, safety during a storm, and resilience in its aftermath. Our study uses various forms of data collection to obtain insights from permanent residents of mobile home parks in south Florida. In addition, it discusses the social and economic disadvantages and opportunities that policy makers can address in climate change risk management.
Abstract
Management of adverse health-related effects from heat waves requires comprehensive and accessible sources of information. This paper examines the effects of temperature and air pollution on human health and identifies areas with increased occurrence of emergency ambulance dispatches in the city of Würzburg, Bavaria, Germany, and discusses the applicability for health care interventions and urban planning. An overdispersed Poisson generalized additive model was used to examine and predict the association and potential lag of exposure between temperature, air pollution, and three types of emergency ambulance dispatches during the study period from 2011 to 2019. A linear model was used to estimate heat-wave effects. A line density function was used to identify areas with increased occurrence of dispatches. Significant effects of temperature were detected for nontraumatic and cardiovascular diseases after exceeding a threshold temperature. The exposure–response relationships showed an increased relative risk up to two days after exposure for nontraumatic and cardiovascular diseases. Results indicate a significant association between presence of heat waves and cardiovascular diseases with up to 17% (95% confidence interval: 5.9%–30.0%) increased relative risk on a heat-wave day relative to a non-heat-wave day. Dispatches for cardiovascular diseases occur more often in areas with a high population and building density, especially in summer. The analyses identified hotspots of heat-related dispatches in areas with increased population and building density and provides baseline information for interventions in future urban planning and public health care management based on data commonly available even in small cities.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how authorities in even medium- and small-sized cities can assess health impacts of heat stress or air pollution using free accessible emergency ambulance data and software to incorporate the outcomes in their spatial planning or health care management. This is important as ongoing climate change requires all urban communities to adapt and reduce adverse impacts of climate change and air pollution. Our results show that extreme heat leads to increased emergency ambulance dispatches in a medium-sized city in Germany and provide a spatial overview of where health care interventions and urban planning can focus to mitigate adverse effects.
Abstract
Management of adverse health-related effects from heat waves requires comprehensive and accessible sources of information. This paper examines the effects of temperature and air pollution on human health and identifies areas with increased occurrence of emergency ambulance dispatches in the city of Würzburg, Bavaria, Germany, and discusses the applicability for health care interventions and urban planning. An overdispersed Poisson generalized additive model was used to examine and predict the association and potential lag of exposure between temperature, air pollution, and three types of emergency ambulance dispatches during the study period from 2011 to 2019. A linear model was used to estimate heat-wave effects. A line density function was used to identify areas with increased occurrence of dispatches. Significant effects of temperature were detected for nontraumatic and cardiovascular diseases after exceeding a threshold temperature. The exposure–response relationships showed an increased relative risk up to two days after exposure for nontraumatic and cardiovascular diseases. Results indicate a significant association between presence of heat waves and cardiovascular diseases with up to 17% (95% confidence interval: 5.9%–30.0%) increased relative risk on a heat-wave day relative to a non-heat-wave day. Dispatches for cardiovascular diseases occur more often in areas with a high population and building density, especially in summer. The analyses identified hotspots of heat-related dispatches in areas with increased population and building density and provides baseline information for interventions in future urban planning and public health care management based on data commonly available even in small cities.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how authorities in even medium- and small-sized cities can assess health impacts of heat stress or air pollution using free accessible emergency ambulance data and software to incorporate the outcomes in their spatial planning or health care management. This is important as ongoing climate change requires all urban communities to adapt and reduce adverse impacts of climate change and air pollution. Our results show that extreme heat leads to increased emergency ambulance dispatches in a medium-sized city in Germany and provide a spatial overview of where health care interventions and urban planning can focus to mitigate adverse effects.
Abstract
The September 2020 Oregon wildfires were unprecedented in terms of their geographic scope and the number of communities affected by smoke and wildfire. Although it is difficult to directly attribute the event to climate change, scientists have noted the strong connection between warmer and drier conditions in the western United States—conditions that are linked to climate change—and increasing wildfire risk. These wildfires thus had the potential to act as a “focusing event,” potentially strengthening public support for climate change policy. Political ideology is a well-known driver of public support for climate change mitigation policies in the United States, but few studies have examined adaptation policy support. Moreover, other factors shaping postevent support for the two “pillars” of climate change policy—adaptation and mitigation—have rarely been compared. We conducted a survey of Oregonians within 6 months of the 2020 wildfires (n = 1308) to understand postevent support for climate mitigation and adaptation policies. We found that the magnitude of the association between political ideology and policy support was lower for adaptation policies than for mitigation policies, and there was no association with support for forest management changes. In contrast, selected sociodemographic characteristics played a more important role in support for selected adaptation policies than for mitigation policies.
Significance Statement
Increasing wildfire risk in the western United States is connected to warmer and drier conditions, both of which are linked to climate change. Most research on postevent support for climate change policy has focused on climate change mitigation policies. This study examines and compares public support for both mitigation and adaptation policies after the 2020 Oregon wildfires, yielding important information about the factors that shape support for each.
Abstract
The September 2020 Oregon wildfires were unprecedented in terms of their geographic scope and the number of communities affected by smoke and wildfire. Although it is difficult to directly attribute the event to climate change, scientists have noted the strong connection between warmer and drier conditions in the western United States—conditions that are linked to climate change—and increasing wildfire risk. These wildfires thus had the potential to act as a “focusing event,” potentially strengthening public support for climate change policy. Political ideology is a well-known driver of public support for climate change mitigation policies in the United States, but few studies have examined adaptation policy support. Moreover, other factors shaping postevent support for the two “pillars” of climate change policy—adaptation and mitigation—have rarely been compared. We conducted a survey of Oregonians within 6 months of the 2020 wildfires (n = 1308) to understand postevent support for climate mitigation and adaptation policies. We found that the magnitude of the association between political ideology and policy support was lower for adaptation policies than for mitigation policies, and there was no association with support for forest management changes. In contrast, selected sociodemographic characteristics played a more important role in support for selected adaptation policies than for mitigation policies.
Significance Statement
Increasing wildfire risk in the western United States is connected to warmer and drier conditions, both of which are linked to climate change. Most research on postevent support for climate change policy has focused on climate change mitigation policies. This study examines and compares public support for both mitigation and adaptation policies after the 2020 Oregon wildfires, yielding important information about the factors that shape support for each.
Abstract
During the spring of 2019, severe flooding across the U.S. Midwest caused widespread damage to communities in the Missouri and Mississippi River basins. While it is known that flood magnitude and economic damage are often related, little work exists to examine these factors simultaneously. In this study, we analyze both the hydrologic and socioeconomic characteristics of the 2019 Midwest flood to gain a comprehensive understanding of impacts to individuals, households, and communities. We examine flood magnitude, duration, and probability of occurrence in tandem with claim and grant applications from federal disaster recovery programs, such as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the Individual and Households Program (IHP). Overall, we find that many areas, particularly in Nebraska and Iowa, experienced moderate or major flooding due to historic discharge magnitudes. In these states, NFIP claims totaled more than $31 million and IHP applications exceeded $42 million in reported damages. In most cases, counties that reported a high density of insurance claims or grant applications overlapped with regions with significant flooding. We also identify the economic advantages to NFIP policyholders for flood recovery in terms of aid eligibility and financial aid amounts.
Abstract
During the spring of 2019, severe flooding across the U.S. Midwest caused widespread damage to communities in the Missouri and Mississippi River basins. While it is known that flood magnitude and economic damage are often related, little work exists to examine these factors simultaneously. In this study, we analyze both the hydrologic and socioeconomic characteristics of the 2019 Midwest flood to gain a comprehensive understanding of impacts to individuals, households, and communities. We examine flood magnitude, duration, and probability of occurrence in tandem with claim and grant applications from federal disaster recovery programs, such as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the Individual and Households Program (IHP). Overall, we find that many areas, particularly in Nebraska and Iowa, experienced moderate or major flooding due to historic discharge magnitudes. In these states, NFIP claims totaled more than $31 million and IHP applications exceeded $42 million in reported damages. In most cases, counties that reported a high density of insurance claims or grant applications overlapped with regions with significant flooding. We also identify the economic advantages to NFIP policyholders for flood recovery in terms of aid eligibility and financial aid amounts.
