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Abstract
Over three decades, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed an assessment process to integrate, evaluate, and interpret scientific findings on climate change and discuss uncertainties. In six USGCRP assessments, authors have identified research gaps, or topics that assessment authors indicated required more information or study. Examining research gaps on a continual and systematic basis can aid decisions about research projects, programmatic priorities, and strategic scientific visions. The methodology presented here addresses two aims: (1) identify and categorize research gaps within a searchable database, and (2) demonstrate use of the database to inform future science planning and assessment. Results include the top 10 database themes, 18 recurring topics across assessments, and a search example for vulnerability gaps. The benefits and limitations of this approach are discussed along with recommendations to improve future U.S. climate assessment products.
Abstract
Over three decades, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has developed an assessment process to integrate, evaluate, and interpret scientific findings on climate change and discuss uncertainties. In six USGCRP assessments, authors have identified research gaps, or topics that assessment authors indicated required more information or study. Examining research gaps on a continual and systematic basis can aid decisions about research projects, programmatic priorities, and strategic scientific visions. The methodology presented here addresses two aims: (1) identify and categorize research gaps within a searchable database, and (2) demonstrate use of the database to inform future science planning and assessment. Results include the top 10 database themes, 18 recurring topics across assessments, and a search example for vulnerability gaps. The benefits and limitations of this approach are discussed along with recommendations to improve future U.S. climate assessment products.
Abstract
Hurricane forecasts are often communicated through visualizations depicting the possible future track of the storm. The cone of uncertainty (COU) is a commonly used visualization, but the graphic is prone to misinterpretation such as thinking only locations contained within the cone’s boundary are at risk. In this study, we investigated the utility of conveying hurricane forecast tracks using a set of animated icons, each representing an instance of a possible storm path. We refer to this new visualization as animated risk trajectories (ARTs). We measured nonexperts’ perception of risk when viewing simplified, hypothetical hurricane forecasts presented as ARTs or COUs. To measure perception of risk for each visualization type, we designed experiments to have participants make decisions to evacuate individual towns at varying distances from the most likely forecast path of a storm. The ARTs led to greater risk perception in areas that fell beyond the cone’s boundaries. Nonexperts’ interpretation of risk was impacted by the visual properties of the ARTs, such as the distribution of the icons, including their density, and whether the distribution was unimodal or bimodal. This supports the suggestion that ARTs can have value in communicating spatial–temporal uncertainty.
Significance Statement
Because of the inherent uncertainties in weather forecasts and emergency management planning, communicating hurricane risk to the public is a unique challenge for decision-makers. Our study investigated the effect of conveying uncertainty in hurricane forecast tracks using a distribution of animated icons [animated risk trajectories (ARTs)], which correspond to potential hurricane tracks that evolve over time. This visualization was compared with a simplified cone-of-uncertainty graphic, such as those used by the National Hurricane Center. We found that ARTs offered flexibility in conveying information about hurricane risk, such as the magnitude of the risk via the number of icons and the location of the risk via the distribution of icons.
Abstract
Hurricane forecasts are often communicated through visualizations depicting the possible future track of the storm. The cone of uncertainty (COU) is a commonly used visualization, but the graphic is prone to misinterpretation such as thinking only locations contained within the cone’s boundary are at risk. In this study, we investigated the utility of conveying hurricane forecast tracks using a set of animated icons, each representing an instance of a possible storm path. We refer to this new visualization as animated risk trajectories (ARTs). We measured nonexperts’ perception of risk when viewing simplified, hypothetical hurricane forecasts presented as ARTs or COUs. To measure perception of risk for each visualization type, we designed experiments to have participants make decisions to evacuate individual towns at varying distances from the most likely forecast path of a storm. The ARTs led to greater risk perception in areas that fell beyond the cone’s boundaries. Nonexperts’ interpretation of risk was impacted by the visual properties of the ARTs, such as the distribution of the icons, including their density, and whether the distribution was unimodal or bimodal. This supports the suggestion that ARTs can have value in communicating spatial–temporal uncertainty.
Significance Statement
Because of the inherent uncertainties in weather forecasts and emergency management planning, communicating hurricane risk to the public is a unique challenge for decision-makers. Our study investigated the effect of conveying uncertainty in hurricane forecast tracks using a distribution of animated icons [animated risk trajectories (ARTs)], which correspond to potential hurricane tracks that evolve over time. This visualization was compared with a simplified cone-of-uncertainty graphic, such as those used by the National Hurricane Center. We found that ARTs offered flexibility in conveying information about hurricane risk, such as the magnitude of the risk via the number of icons and the location of the risk via the distribution of icons.
Abstract
Both the frequency and intensity of hot temperature extremes are expected to increase in the coming decades, challenging various socio-economic sectors including public health. Thereby, societal attention data available in real time, such as Google search attention, could help monitor heat wave impacts in domains with lagged data availability. Here, we jointly analyze societal attention and health impacts of heat waves in Germany at weekly time scales. We find that Google search attention responds similar to hot temperatures as indicators of public health impacts; represented by excess mortality and hospitalizations. This emerges from piecewise linear relationships of Google search attention and health impacts to temperature. We can then determine temperature thresholds above which both attention and public health are affected by heat. More generally, given the clear and similar response of societal indicators to heat, we conclude that heat waves can and should be defined from a joint societal and meteorological perspective, whereby temperatures are compared with thresholds established using societal data. A better joint understanding of societal attention and health impacts offers the potential to better manage future heat waves.
Abstract
Both the frequency and intensity of hot temperature extremes are expected to increase in the coming decades, challenging various socio-economic sectors including public health. Thereby, societal attention data available in real time, such as Google search attention, could help monitor heat wave impacts in domains with lagged data availability. Here, we jointly analyze societal attention and health impacts of heat waves in Germany at weekly time scales. We find that Google search attention responds similar to hot temperatures as indicators of public health impacts; represented by excess mortality and hospitalizations. This emerges from piecewise linear relationships of Google search attention and health impacts to temperature. We can then determine temperature thresholds above which both attention and public health are affected by heat. More generally, given the clear and similar response of societal indicators to heat, we conclude that heat waves can and should be defined from a joint societal and meteorological perspective, whereby temperatures are compared with thresholds established using societal data. A better joint understanding of societal attention and health impacts offers the potential to better manage future heat waves.
Abstract
This study investigates whether and how energy consumers respond to public appeals for voluntary conservation during an extended and extreme winter energy emergency. Public appeals are an increasingly important tool for managing demand when grid disruptions are anticipated, especially given the increase in severe-weather events. We add to the few studies on winter energy crises by investigating a case in which there were repeated public appeals during an extended event. Using a survey implemented via social media immediately after the February 2021 winter storm, we asked residents of Norman, Oklahoma, a series of questions about their responses to the public appeals distributed by the utility company, including whether they followed the actions suggested in the messages as well as where they got information and their level of concern about the storm impacts. We compare mean responses across a range of categorical answers using standard independent t tests, one-way ANOVA tests, and chi-squared tests. Among the 296 respondents, there was a high degree of reported compliance, including setting the thermostat to 68°F (20°C) or lower (72%), avoiding using major appliances (86%), and turning off nonessential appliances, lights, and equipment (89%). Our findings suggest a high degree of willingness to voluntarily reduce energy consumption during an energy emergency. This is encouraging for energy managers: public appeals can be disseminated via social media at a low cost and in real time during an extended emergency event.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to better understand whether and how energy consumers respond to public appeals for voluntary conservation during a winter energy emergency event. This is important because voluntary conservation can help utility managers minimize grid disruptions, particularly if consumers respond to evolving conditions. Our survey results suggest that individuals are willing to voluntarily conserve energy and follow conservation recommendations provided by utility managers during a severe winter event.
Abstract
This study investigates whether and how energy consumers respond to public appeals for voluntary conservation during an extended and extreme winter energy emergency. Public appeals are an increasingly important tool for managing demand when grid disruptions are anticipated, especially given the increase in severe-weather events. We add to the few studies on winter energy crises by investigating a case in which there were repeated public appeals during an extended event. Using a survey implemented via social media immediately after the February 2021 winter storm, we asked residents of Norman, Oklahoma, a series of questions about their responses to the public appeals distributed by the utility company, including whether they followed the actions suggested in the messages as well as where they got information and their level of concern about the storm impacts. We compare mean responses across a range of categorical answers using standard independent t tests, one-way ANOVA tests, and chi-squared tests. Among the 296 respondents, there was a high degree of reported compliance, including setting the thermostat to 68°F (20°C) or lower (72%), avoiding using major appliances (86%), and turning off nonessential appliances, lights, and equipment (89%). Our findings suggest a high degree of willingness to voluntarily reduce energy consumption during an energy emergency. This is encouraging for energy managers: public appeals can be disseminated via social media at a low cost and in real time during an extended emergency event.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to better understand whether and how energy consumers respond to public appeals for voluntary conservation during a winter energy emergency event. This is important because voluntary conservation can help utility managers minimize grid disruptions, particularly if consumers respond to evolving conditions. Our survey results suggest that individuals are willing to voluntarily conserve energy and follow conservation recommendations provided by utility managers during a severe winter event.
Abstract
Climate change is expected to impact individuals’ recreational choices, as changing temperatures and precipitation patterns influence participation in outdoor recreation and alternative activities. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between weather and outdoor recreation using nationally representative data from the contiguous United States. We find that across most outdoor recreational activities, participation is lowest on the coldest days (<35 degrees Fahrenheit) and highest at moderately high temperatures (80 to 90 degrees). Notable exceptions to this trend include water sports and snow and ice sports, for which participation peaks at the highest and lowest temperatures, respectively. If individuals continue to respond to temperature changes the same way that they have in the recent past, in a future climate that has fewer cool days and more moderate and hot days, our model anticipates net participation across all outdoor recreation activities will increase by 88 million trips annually at 1 degree Celsius of warming (CONUS) and up to 401 million trips at 6 degrees of warming, valued between $3.2 billion and $15.6 billion in consumer surplus annually (2010 population). The increase in trips is driven by participation in water sports; excluding water sports from future projections decreases the consumer surplus gains by approximately 75 percent across all modeled degrees of warming. If individuals in northern regions respond to temperature like people in southern regions currently do (a proxy for adaptation), total outdoor recreation trips will increase by an additional 17 percent compared to no adaptation at 6 degrees of warming. This benefit is generally not seen at lower degrees of warming.
Abstract
Climate change is expected to impact individuals’ recreational choices, as changing temperatures and precipitation patterns influence participation in outdoor recreation and alternative activities. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between weather and outdoor recreation using nationally representative data from the contiguous United States. We find that across most outdoor recreational activities, participation is lowest on the coldest days (<35 degrees Fahrenheit) and highest at moderately high temperatures (80 to 90 degrees). Notable exceptions to this trend include water sports and snow and ice sports, for which participation peaks at the highest and lowest temperatures, respectively. If individuals continue to respond to temperature changes the same way that they have in the recent past, in a future climate that has fewer cool days and more moderate and hot days, our model anticipates net participation across all outdoor recreation activities will increase by 88 million trips annually at 1 degree Celsius of warming (CONUS) and up to 401 million trips at 6 degrees of warming, valued between $3.2 billion and $15.6 billion in consumer surplus annually (2010 population). The increase in trips is driven by participation in water sports; excluding water sports from future projections decreases the consumer surplus gains by approximately 75 percent across all modeled degrees of warming. If individuals in northern regions respond to temperature like people in southern regions currently do (a proxy for adaptation), total outdoor recreation trips will increase by an additional 17 percent compared to no adaptation at 6 degrees of warming. This benefit is generally not seen at lower degrees of warming.
Abstract
Heat stress from the environment can be detrimental to athlete health and performance. No research, however, has explored how elite athletes conceptualise and experience heatwaves and climate change. Utilising a qualitative approach, this study examined elite athletes’ perceptions, experiences and responses to extreme heat in relation to climate change and explored the use of their platforms for climate activism.
Fourteen elite athletes from United Kingdom, Australia, United States of America, Sweden and Canada, who represented ten different sports including race walking, netball and cricket were recruited using snowball sampling. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews.
Thematic analysis revealed four broad themes. The first theme reflected uncertainty surrounding the causes of heatwaves and the impact of heat on athlete health and performance. The second theme reflected care and concern for sport and society, including concern for the well-being of athletes and spectators, the impact of heat on facilities and participation at grass-roots level and how the nature of sport may change in the future. The third theme referred to the implications of heatwave experience on athlete health and performance, and how experience affected individual and organisational preparedness. Finally, the fourth theme referred to enablers and barriers to successful climate change communication.
This study contributes to the sport ecology literature by introducing the subjective heat experiences of elite athletes. Educating athletes and event organisers about the impacts of heat on sport participation is imperative to increase awareness, and hopefully limit illness for those training and competing.
Abstract
Heat stress from the environment can be detrimental to athlete health and performance. No research, however, has explored how elite athletes conceptualise and experience heatwaves and climate change. Utilising a qualitative approach, this study examined elite athletes’ perceptions, experiences and responses to extreme heat in relation to climate change and explored the use of their platforms for climate activism.
Fourteen elite athletes from United Kingdom, Australia, United States of America, Sweden and Canada, who represented ten different sports including race walking, netball and cricket were recruited using snowball sampling. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews.
Thematic analysis revealed four broad themes. The first theme reflected uncertainty surrounding the causes of heatwaves and the impact of heat on athlete health and performance. The second theme reflected care and concern for sport and society, including concern for the well-being of athletes and spectators, the impact of heat on facilities and participation at grass-roots level and how the nature of sport may change in the future. The third theme referred to the implications of heatwave experience on athlete health and performance, and how experience affected individual and organisational preparedness. Finally, the fourth theme referred to enablers and barriers to successful climate change communication.
This study contributes to the sport ecology literature by introducing the subjective heat experiences of elite athletes. Educating athletes and event organisers about the impacts of heat on sport participation is imperative to increase awareness, and hopefully limit illness for those training and competing.
Abstract
Climate services are high on the international agenda for their potential to help combat the effects of climate change. However, climate science is rarely directly incorporated into the decision-making processes of societal actors, due to what has been identified as the usability gap. This gap is partially due to a failure to timely and meaningfully engage users in the production of climate services, as well as misperceptions as to which users can best benefit from climate service uptake. In this article, we propose user selection and engagement guidelines that integrate important values from participatory science such as those of legitimacy, representativity, and agency. The guidelines consist of 5 + 1 steps: defining why, where, whom, which attributes, and which intensity and how to select and engage with stakeholders. While these steps may be initially implemented by an ideally interdisciplinary team of scientists and service designers, the final step consists of an iterative process by which each decision is agreed on together with the identified users and stakeholders under a coproduction approach. We believe this systematic user selection and engagement practice is key to support the design of climate services aligned to the actual needs of a wide and inclusive range of empowered societal agents.
Significance Statement
A review of the climate science and services literature and related research projects reveals that, despite the insistence to include users in all stages of the research process, users are often involved only sporadically and inconsistently and when there is little room to change the climate service suitable for decision-making. Here, we argue that a reason for this is the lack of user selection and engagement guidelines. Failure to implement a research design strategy for these decisions can lead to a lack of usability and applicability of the produced climate-related services, as well as hampering their long-term uptake. These guidelines can thus support the development of usable, coproduced, actionable climate science.
Abstract
Climate services are high on the international agenda for their potential to help combat the effects of climate change. However, climate science is rarely directly incorporated into the decision-making processes of societal actors, due to what has been identified as the usability gap. This gap is partially due to a failure to timely and meaningfully engage users in the production of climate services, as well as misperceptions as to which users can best benefit from climate service uptake. In this article, we propose user selection and engagement guidelines that integrate important values from participatory science such as those of legitimacy, representativity, and agency. The guidelines consist of 5 + 1 steps: defining why, where, whom, which attributes, and which intensity and how to select and engage with stakeholders. While these steps may be initially implemented by an ideally interdisciplinary team of scientists and service designers, the final step consists of an iterative process by which each decision is agreed on together with the identified users and stakeholders under a coproduction approach. We believe this systematic user selection and engagement practice is key to support the design of climate services aligned to the actual needs of a wide and inclusive range of empowered societal agents.
Significance Statement
A review of the climate science and services literature and related research projects reveals that, despite the insistence to include users in all stages of the research process, users are often involved only sporadically and inconsistently and when there is little room to change the climate service suitable for decision-making. Here, we argue that a reason for this is the lack of user selection and engagement guidelines. Failure to implement a research design strategy for these decisions can lead to a lack of usability and applicability of the produced climate-related services, as well as hampering their long-term uptake. These guidelines can thus support the development of usable, coproduced, actionable climate science.
Abstract
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, decision-making during disasters fundamentally changed to accommodate the combined risks of hurricanes and infectious diseases. Prior research conducted in 2020 by Collins et al. (2021a, 2021b, 2022) examined how individuals changed their intended evacuation decision-making during the pandemic or their actual evacuation decisions during Hurricanes Laura and Sally. Hurricane Ida provided further data on evacuation decision-making when vaccinations and masks were widely available. A digital survey was disseminated to individuals affected by Hurricane Ida in 2021. Respondents provided information about their actual evacuation choices and perceptions of public shelters and COVID-19 risks. Compared to the 2020 hurricane season, more individuals have reduced negative perceptions of hurricane shelters. However, individuals were less likely to utilize public shelters than in the 2020 season, with 11.4% more individuals stating they would definitely or probably avoid using shelters in 2021. Fewer individuals identified that COVID-19 was a primary reason they chose to stay home during Hurricane Ida (19.5% compared to 86.8% during Hurricanes Laura and Sally). Furthermore, respondents with health risks for severe COVID-19 symptoms were no more likely to evacuate than those respondents who had no health risks. Potentially, as the pandemic progressed and vaccine availability and COVID-19 management improved, COVID-19 has had less impact on evacuation decision-making. The results from this work should guide planners in emergency management and public health in future hurricane seasons and future pandemics or other outbreaks to anticipate behavior changes and properly manage infectious disease threats.
Abstract
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, decision-making during disasters fundamentally changed to accommodate the combined risks of hurricanes and infectious diseases. Prior research conducted in 2020 by Collins et al. (2021a, 2021b, 2022) examined how individuals changed their intended evacuation decision-making during the pandemic or their actual evacuation decisions during Hurricanes Laura and Sally. Hurricane Ida provided further data on evacuation decision-making when vaccinations and masks were widely available. A digital survey was disseminated to individuals affected by Hurricane Ida in 2021. Respondents provided information about their actual evacuation choices and perceptions of public shelters and COVID-19 risks. Compared to the 2020 hurricane season, more individuals have reduced negative perceptions of hurricane shelters. However, individuals were less likely to utilize public shelters than in the 2020 season, with 11.4% more individuals stating they would definitely or probably avoid using shelters in 2021. Fewer individuals identified that COVID-19 was a primary reason they chose to stay home during Hurricane Ida (19.5% compared to 86.8% during Hurricanes Laura and Sally). Furthermore, respondents with health risks for severe COVID-19 symptoms were no more likely to evacuate than those respondents who had no health risks. Potentially, as the pandemic progressed and vaccine availability and COVID-19 management improved, COVID-19 has had less impact on evacuation decision-making. The results from this work should guide planners in emergency management and public health in future hurricane seasons and future pandemics or other outbreaks to anticipate behavior changes and properly manage infectious disease threats.
Abstract
Wilderness visitation, particularly overnight use, is reactive to climate variability because backpackers face greater exposure to and dependence on environmental conditions. This study examines the effect that spring snowpack had on the timing and volume of permits issued for overnight use of the Yosemite Wilderness during peak and shoulder-season months (April–October) from 2002 to 2019. We categorize 1 April snowpack at Tuolumne Meadows into snow drought (<75%), high snowpack (>125%), and near-average snowpack (75%–125%). Results confirm wilderness-wide differences between snowpack categories, including change in spring overnight visitors (April–June: +20% snow drought and −28% high snowpack). Our findings confirm that snow drought allows for more access to high-elevation trailheads when seasonal roads are open earlier in spring (May–June: +74% Tioga Road and +81% Tuolumne Meadows). Mid- to high-elevation trailheads experience a sustained increase in use during high-snowpack years (June–October: +12% Yosemite Valley and Big Oak Flat; +15% Glacier Point Road and Wawona; +32% Hetch Hetchy) because a narrower seasonal access window leads to filled permit quotas in the high country and displaces use to lower-elevation trailheads. These findings have implications for wilderness stewards, including biophysical and experiential impacts on wilderness character from earlier and longer seasons, especially at higher elevation and in fragile alpine and subalpine areas, as snow drought in mountain-protected areas becomes more common. Recommendations to address greater early-season use and its attendant impacts include adaptively managing permits for different types of snowpack years, including potential changes in the number, timing, and destination of select trailhead quotas.
Abstract
Wilderness visitation, particularly overnight use, is reactive to climate variability because backpackers face greater exposure to and dependence on environmental conditions. This study examines the effect that spring snowpack had on the timing and volume of permits issued for overnight use of the Yosemite Wilderness during peak and shoulder-season months (April–October) from 2002 to 2019. We categorize 1 April snowpack at Tuolumne Meadows into snow drought (<75%), high snowpack (>125%), and near-average snowpack (75%–125%). Results confirm wilderness-wide differences between snowpack categories, including change in spring overnight visitors (April–June: +20% snow drought and −28% high snowpack). Our findings confirm that snow drought allows for more access to high-elevation trailheads when seasonal roads are open earlier in spring (May–June: +74% Tioga Road and +81% Tuolumne Meadows). Mid- to high-elevation trailheads experience a sustained increase in use during high-snowpack years (June–October: +12% Yosemite Valley and Big Oak Flat; +15% Glacier Point Road and Wawona; +32% Hetch Hetchy) because a narrower seasonal access window leads to filled permit quotas in the high country and displaces use to lower-elevation trailheads. These findings have implications for wilderness stewards, including biophysical and experiential impacts on wilderness character from earlier and longer seasons, especially at higher elevation and in fragile alpine and subalpine areas, as snow drought in mountain-protected areas becomes more common. Recommendations to address greater early-season use and its attendant impacts include adaptively managing permits for different types of snowpack years, including potential changes in the number, timing, and destination of select trailhead quotas.
Abstract
Sustainable development is a challenging field of research, colored by the paradoxes of modernity and development, and the trade-offs involved in balancing the “sustainable” and “development” sides of the various sustainable development goals. We must take these overarching challenges into account when entering a more specific discussion of what a concept of sustainable climate change adaptation may entail. This article reviews the history of this concept, including insights provided by the recent publications composing a special collection of Weather, Climate, and Society on the topic of sustainable climate change adaptation. This collection reflects on why and how the term sustainable development should be included in our understandings of and efforts toward climate change adaptation and proposes a preliminary framework for distinguishing between conventional and sustainable adaptation.
Significance Statement
This article reviews the history of the term “sustainable climate change adaptation” and reflects on the relationship between sustainable development and climate change adaptation efforts. It ends by proposing a framework for distinguishing between conventional and sustainable adaptation.
Abstract
Sustainable development is a challenging field of research, colored by the paradoxes of modernity and development, and the trade-offs involved in balancing the “sustainable” and “development” sides of the various sustainable development goals. We must take these overarching challenges into account when entering a more specific discussion of what a concept of sustainable climate change adaptation may entail. This article reviews the history of this concept, including insights provided by the recent publications composing a special collection of Weather, Climate, and Society on the topic of sustainable climate change adaptation. This collection reflects on why and how the term sustainable development should be included in our understandings of and efforts toward climate change adaptation and proposes a preliminary framework for distinguishing between conventional and sustainable adaptation.
Significance Statement
This article reviews the history of the term “sustainable climate change adaptation” and reflects on the relationship between sustainable development and climate change adaptation efforts. It ends by proposing a framework for distinguishing between conventional and sustainable adaptation.
