Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 9,953 items for :

  • Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All
Hiroyuki Kusaka
,
Yuma Imai
,
Hiroki Kobayashi
,
Quang-Van Doan
, and
Thanh Ngo-Duc

Abstract

North-Central Vietnam often experiences high temperatures. Foehn winds originating from the Truong Son Mountains (also known as Laos winds) are believed to contribute to abnormally high temperatures; however, no quantitative research has focused on foehn warming in Vietnam. In this study, we conducted numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the contribution of foehn warming to abnormally high temperatures in north-central Vietnam in early June 2017. Generally, May–June is the monsoon period in Vietnam. Consequently, foehn warming during this season is thought to be mainly caused by latent heating and precipitation mechanism. However, the primary factor in the cases covered in this study was foehn warming with an isentropic drawdown mechanism. Diabatic heating with turbulent diffusion and sensible heat flux from mountain slopes also play significant roles. The warming effect of the foehn winds on the temperatures during the events was approximately 2–3°C. It was concluded that the high temperature events from May 31-June 5, 2017 were caused by synoptic-scale warm advection and foehn warming. Sensitivity experiments were conducted on the WRF model, utilizing three atmospheric boundary layer turbulence schemes (YSU, ACM2, and MYNN), consistently yielding results for simulated temperature and relative humidity. The wind speed bias for the MYNN scheme was found to be lower than that of the other schemes. However, this study did not delve into the underlying reasons for these differences. The optimal performance of each scheme remains an open question.

Restricted access
Shengjun Liu
,
Wenjie Yan
,
Xinru Liu
,
Yamin Hu
, and
Dangfu Yang

Abstract

The research and application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on statistical downscaling have been hampered by the fact that deep learning is highly dependent on sample size and is considered to be a black-box model. Therefore, a CNN model with transfer learning (CNN-TL) is proposed to study the pre-rainy season precipitation of South China. First, an augmented monthly dataset is created by sliding a fixed-length window over the daily circulation field and precipitation data for the entire year. Next, a base CNN network is pretrained on the augmented dataset, and then the network parameters are tuned on the actual monthly dataset from South China. Then, guided backpropagation is conducted to obtain the distribution regions of the key features and explain the net. The coefficient of determination R 2 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) show that the CNN-TL model has higher explanatory power and better fitting performance than the feature extraction–based random forest. In comparison with the base CNN, the transfer learning approach can improve the explanatory power of the model by 10.29% and reduce the average RMSE by 6.82%. In addition, the interpretation results of the model show that the critical regions are primarily South China and its surrounding areas, including the Indochina Peninsula, the Bay of Bengal, and the South China Sea. Furthermore, the ablation experiments and composite analysis illustrate that these regions are very important.

Significance Statement

To mitigate the challenges posed by small sample sizes and the transparency of deep learning in downscaling problems, we propose a convolutional neural network based on sample augmentation and transfer learning to study the monthly precipitation downscaling problem during the preflood period in South China. In comparison with random forests and conventional convolutional neural networks, our model achieves an optimal interpretation rate and stability. In addition, we explore the interpretability of the model using guided backpropagation to find the distribution of key features within the large-scale circulation field, thus increasing the credibility of the model.

Restricted access
Khadija Arjdal
,
Étienne Vignon
,
Fatima Driouech
,
Frédérique Chéruy
,
Salah Er-Raki
,
Adriana Sima
,
Abdelghani Chehbouni
, and
Philippe Drobinski

Abstract

Land surface–atmosphere interactions are a key component of climate modeling. They are particularly critical to understand and anticipate the climate and the water resources over the semiarid and arid North African regions. This study uses in situ observations to assess the ability of the IPSL-CM global climate model to simulate the land–atmosphere interactions over the Moroccan semiarid plains. A specific configuration with a grid refinement over the Haouz Plain, near Marrakech, and nudging outside Morocco has been performed to properly assess the model’s performances. To ensure reliable model–observation comparisons despite the fact that station measurements are not representative of a mesh-size area, we carried out experiments with adapted vegetation properties. Results show that the CMIP6 version of the model’s physics represents the near-surface climate over the Haouz Plain reasonably well. Nonetheless, the simulation exhibits a nocturnal warm bias, and the wind speed is overestimated in tree-covered meshes and underestimated in the wheat-covered region. Further sensitivity experiments reveal that LAI-dependent parameterization of roughness length leads to a strong surface wind drag and to underestimated land surface atmosphere thermal coupling. Setting the roughness heights to the observed values improves the wind speed and, to a lesser extent, the nocturnal temperature. A low bias in latent heat flux and soil moisture coinciding with a pronounced diurnal warm bias at the surface is still present in our simulations. Including a first-order irrigation parameterization yields more realistic simulated evapotranspiration flux and daytime skin surface temperatures. This result raises the importance of accounting for the irrigation process in present and future climate simulations over Moroccan agricultural areas.

Restricted access
Free access
Harrison Woodson Bowles
and
Sarah E. Strazzo

Abstract

Florida’s summertime precipitation patterns are in part influenced by convergence between the synoptic-scale wind and local sea-breeze fronts that form along the east and west coasts of the peninsula. While the National Weather Service previously defined nine sea-breeze regimes resulting from variations in the synoptic-scale vector wind field near Tampa, Florida, these regimes were developed using a shorter 18-yr period and examined primarily for the purposes of short-term weather prediction. This study employs reanalysis data to develop a full 30-yr climatology of the Florida sea-breeze regime distribution and analyze the composite mean atmospheric conditions associated with each regime. Further, given that 1) the synoptic-scale wind primarily varies as a result of movement in the western ridge of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and 2) previous studies suggest long-term shifts in the mean position of the NASH western ridge, this study also examines variability and trends in the sea-breeze regime distribution and its relationship to rainy-day frequency over a longer 60-yr period. Results indicate that synoptic-scale flow from the west through southwest, which enhances precipitation probabilities along the eastern half of the peninsula, has increased in frequency, while flow from the east through northeast has decreased in frequency. These changes in the sea-breeze regime distribution may be partially responsible for increases in rainy-day frequency during June–August over northeastern Florida, though results suggest that other factors likely contribute to interannual variability in precipitation across the southern peninsula.

Restricted access
C. Cammalleri
,
N. McCormick
,
J. Spinoni
, and
J. W. Nielsen-Gammon

Abstract

The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is the most commonly used index for detecting and characterizing meteorological droughts, and it is also extensively used as a proxy variable for soil moisture anomalies (SMA) for the purpose of monitoring agricultural drought in absence of long-term soil moisture observations. However, the potential capability of SPI to warn of the time-lagged soil water deficit—following the well-known “drought cascade” effect—is often overlooked in agricultural drought studies. In this research, a time-lagged correlation analysis is used to evaluate the relationship between the SMA dataset, generated as part of the Global Drought Observatory of the European Union’s Copernicus Emergency Management Service, and a set of SPIs derived from the ERA5 reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The possibility to achieve an optimal agreement between SPI and SMA that also preserves the early warning skills of SPI is evaluated. The results suggest that if only the correlation between SPI and SMA is considered, the maximum agreement is usually obtained with a zero lead time (almost 80% of the cases), with SPI-3 representing the best option in about 40% of the grid cells at global scale. By also accounting for the benefits of a positive lead time, short accumulation periods tend to be favored, with SPI-1 being the optimal choice in about one-half of the cases, and 10–20 days of lead time in more than 90% of the grid cells is achieved without any significant reduction in either correlation or skill in drought extreme detection.

Open access
Jordan Clark
and
Charles E. Konrad

Abstract

Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is used to assess environmental heat stress and accounts for the influences of air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and radiation on heat stress. Measurements of WBGT are highly sensitive to slight changes in environmental conditions and can vary several degrees Celsius across small distances (tens to hundreds of meters). Relative to observations with an International Organization for Standardization (ISO)-compliant WBGT meter, this work assesses the accuracy of WBGT measurements made with a popular handheld meter (the Kestrel 5400 Heat Stress Tracker) and WBGT estimates. Measurements were made during the summers of 2019–21 in a variety of suburban and urban environments in North Carolina, including three high school campuses. WBGT can be estimated from standard weather station variables, and many of these stations report cloud cover in lieu of solar radiation. Therefore, this work also evaluates the accuracy of clear-sky radiation estimates and adjustments to those estimates based on cloud cover. WBGT estimated with the method from Liljegren et al. from a weather station were on average 0.2°C warmer than Observed WBGT, while the Kestrel 5400 WBGT was 0.7°C warmer. Large variations in WBGT were observed across surfaces and shade conditions, with differences of 0.9°C (0.3°–1.4°C) between a tennis court and a neighboring grass field. The method for estimating clear-sky radiation in Ryan and Stolzenbach was most accurate and the clear-sky radiation modified by percentage cloud cover was found to be within 75 W m−2of observations on average.

Significance Statement

Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a heat stress index that accounts for the effects of air temperature, humidity, wind, and radiation on humans. However, WBGT is not routinely measured at weather stations. This work demonstrated the accuracy of estimating WBGT with methods from , finding it to be more accurate than measurements from a popular handheld meter, the Kestrel 5400 Heat Stress Tracker. Variations in WBGT that result in different danger levels were found between measurements over a tennis court and a neighboring grass field, and between sun and shade conditions. Understanding the magnitude of these differences and the biases with WBGT estimates and measurements can inform the planning of outdoor activity to robustly safeguard health.

Restricted access
Ruth Mendez-Rivas
,
Maycol Mena Palacios
, and
Reiner Palomino Lemus

Abstract

We investigated nine indices of spatiotemporal extreme precipitation events over Nicaragua during 2001–16, from GPCC, Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and IMERG, and their correlation with teleconnection patterns. The main objectives were to evaluate the variability of extreme precipitation events, to know the performance of IMERG and CHIRPS in the characterization of these extreme events, using GPCC and four rain gauges as references, and finally to determine the teleconnection patterns that have the highest correlation with these indices. The spatial coverage of the area with the highest number of consecutive days with daily precipitation less than 1 mm corresponds to the Pacific region, with annual mean values of up to 120 continuous days. Some extreme precipitation event indices (RR, RX1day, and RX5day) show a decreasing trend, suggesting that the study area has been experiencing a reduction of extreme precipitation indices in terms of intensities and duration throughout the study period. In addition, it was observed that CHIRPS shows a better fit when dealing with precipitation events that do not exceed certain thresholds and IMERG improves when describing intense precipitation event patterns. We found that the tropical Pacific SST EOF (EOFPAC), Niño-3.4, Pacific warm pool region (PACWARM), and SOI have a greater influence on extreme precipitation events, these results suggest that they are being controlled by ENSO episodes, providing a better understanding of the climate configuration, as a prediction and forecasting potential, useful for agriculture, land use, and risk management.

Restricted access
Fang-Ching Chien
,
Chun-Wei Chang
,
Jen-Hsin Teng
, and
Jing-Shan Hong

Abstract

This paper investigates a wind speed oscillation event that occurred near the coastline of central Taiwan in the afternoon of 17 February 2018, using data from observations and numerical simulations. The observed wind speeds at 100-m altitude displayed a fast-oscillating pattern of about 6 cycles between strong winds of approximately 21 m s−1 and weak winds of around 2 m s−1, with periods of about 10 min. The pressure anomalies fluctuated in antiphase with the wind speed anomalies. The synoptic analysis revealed the influence of a continental high pressure system, resulting in a cold-air outbreak over Taiwan. The cold north-northeasterly winds split into two branches upon encountering Taiwan’s topography, with ridging off the east coast and a lee trough off the west coast of Taiwan. Wind oscillations were detected in the low-level cold air offshore the west coast of Taiwan, depicted by wavelike structures in wind speeds, sea level pressure, and potential temperature. The perturbations were identified as Kelvin-Helmholtz billows characterized by regions of strong wind speeds, warm and dry air, sinking motions, and low pressure collocated with each other, while regions of weaker wind speeds, cooler and moister air, ascending motions, and high pressure were associated with each other. With terrain contributing to favorable conditions, the large vertical and horizontal wind shears resulted from the southward acceleration of low-level cold air and the northward movement of the lee trough played an important role in initiating the wind oscillations.

Restricted access
Nicholas S. Grondin
and
Kelsey N. Ellis

Abstract

In this study, we investigated the translation speed and intensity change characteristics for landfalling North American tropical cyclones (TCs) from 1971–2020. We calculated three variables—intensity change, mean translation speed, and translation speed change—prior to each TC landfall and investigated the climatology of these variables for seven coastal segments. We found that lower latitude segments generally had greater positive intensity changes prior to landfall, and higher latitude segments had greater translation speeds. Longitude primarily influenced translation speed changes, with landfalling TCs along the Atlantic Coast of the United States notably accelerating prior to landfall. Temporal trends in each of these variables were inconsistent geographically, but most segments showed an increase in positive intensity changes over time, demonstrating the increasing likelihood of intensifying TCs before landfall in recent years. We defined extreme intensification and extreme weakening as the 90th and 10th percentile of all landfalling TC intensity changes, respectively. We found that extreme intensification (weakening) has been increasing (decreasing) in frequency. Results from this study can be used in a variety of future applications, including in operational forecasting and model production and provide a baseline for climate attribution studies investigating extreme intensity change events.

Restricted access