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Dana M. Tobin
,
Heather D. Reeves
,
Maci N. Gibson
, and
Andrew A. Rosenow

Abstract

Winter-weather conditions pose an extreme hazard to motorists, resulting in approximately 1000 fatalities annually on U.S. roadways. Minimizing adverse impacts of winter weather requires (i) the identification of hazardous weather conditions leading up to and at the time of fatal crashes, and (ii) effective, targeted messaging of those hazards to motorists. The first objective is addressed by matching motor-vehicle-related fatalities from 2008 to 2019 to nearby weather reports to determine how precipitation types and other observable weather conditions (i.e., precipitation intensity, obscurations, and visibility) change leading up to crashes. One-half of fatalities occur in snow, with 75% occurring in ongoing snowfall. Of fatalities during freezing precipitation, 41% occur near the onset of freezing precipitation. In addition, 42% of fatalities have deteriorating weather conditions prior to the crash, primarily visibility reductions of ≥25%. The second objective is addressed by examining language currently used in National Weather Service Winter Weather Warning, Watch, or Advisory (WSW) issuances for fatal crashes. Only one-third of fatalities have a WSW. These WSWs both identify a road hazard (e.g., “roads will become slick”) and provide an action item for motorists (e.g., “slow down and use caution while driving”) but do not clearly convey tiered road-hazard ratings. Examination of non-weather-related attributes of fatal crashes suggest that variable-message signs along highways may be useful to communicate road hazards, and that future messaging should urge motorists to leave additional space around their vehicles, slow down, prepare for rapidly deteriorating conditions, and teach strategies to regain control of their vehicle.

Significance Statement

We find that approximately 1000 fatalities occur each year on U.S. roadways during winter weather. To inform how to reduce fatalities in the future, we identify weather conditions leading up to and at the time of fatal crashes and determine whether road hazards were publicly messaged alongside weather warnings and advisories. Ongoing snowfall, the onset of freezing precipitation, and visibility reductions were prominent factors found in many fatal crashes, suggesting that these may be important factors to address in future safety studies. Winter-weather warnings and advisories often contain language cautioning road hazards, yet only one-third of fatalities occur during conditions with such official statements. However, these statements do not clearly indicate how hazardous roads will be.

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Jiban Mani Poudel
,
Madan Sigdel
,
Ram Bahadur Chhetri
, and
K. C. Sudarsan

Abstract

Traditional ways of reading nature’s clues to figure out impending weather are widely practiced in many rural societies in the world. They have been, however, often discounted by a western science-based meteorological forecasting system, although they are important sociocultural tools for mitigating climatic risks. This paper concerns two thematic issues: traditional knowledge about reading nature’s clues to figure out impending weather; and the transformation of that knowledge in the changing context of livelihood, the intervention of modern education, and use of modern weather forecasting technology. This study was carried out at Kirtipur of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, between 2011 and 2021. Information was collected through key informant interviews, observation, and informal discussion and survey. The findings reveal that the traditional weather forecasting system is closely intertwined with climatic phenomena, traditional agriculture practices, the local landscape, myths, and beliefs. The recognition of farmers’ knowledge on weather forecasting should be a resource of a great potential value. However, rapid expansion of the market economy, access to modern technology, affordability, access to modern education, and anthropogenic climate change have gradually detached people from their farmlands, traditional livelihoods, and occupations. All of this seems to have weakened social interaction between generations as well as their attachment to nature. Last, we conclude that the production and consumption of weather forecasting knowledge need local and scientific communities to work together to reduce knowledge gaps.

Significance Statement

The purpose of this study is to understand how farmers read nature to figure out impending weather, even as such knowledge is gradually weakening with the expansion of new technology, the intervention of modern education, the shift from farming-based to nonfarming activities for livelihood, and climate change. In such a context, the survival of traditional weather forecasting knowledge may seem uncertain. Our study reveals that traditional weather forecasting knowledge is rooted in the local landscape and subsistence farming culture. Therefore, the production and consumption of weather forecasting knowledge need local and scientific communities to work together to reduce knowledge gaps and recognize the contributions of both types of knowledge.

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Rebecca E. Morss
,
Jamie Vickery
,
Heather Lazrus
,
Julie Demuth
, and
Ann Bostrom

Abstract

As tropical cyclone threats evolve, broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers rely on timely forecast information to help them communicate risk with the public and protect public safety. This study aims to improve the usability and applicability of National Weather Service (NWS) forecast information in the context of these NWS core partners’ decisions during tropical cyclone threats. The research collected and analyzed data from in-depth interviews with broadcast meteorologists and emergency managers in three coastal U.S. states. These data were used to analyze broadcast meteorologists’ and emergency managers’ tropical cyclone decision and action timelines, their use of tropical cyclone information during different phases of threats, and gaps in forecast information for decision-making. Based on these findings, several opportunities for improving tropical cyclone risk communication were identified. Recommendations to address gaps in the NWS tropical cyclone product suite include designing improved ways to communicate storm-specific storm surge risk at greater than 48 h of lead time, expanding the use of concise highlights that help people quickly extract and understand key information, and improving product understandability and usability by more comprehensively integrating users’ perspectives into product research and development. Broader strategic recommendations include developing new approaches for informing broadcast meteorologists about major forecast updates, presenting forecast information in ways that enable locally relevant interpretation, and supporting human forecasters’ contributions to the effectiveness of NWS products and services. These findings and recommendations can help NOAA prioritize ways to modernize the current NWS tropical cyclone product suite as well as motivate research to enable longer-term high-priority improvements.

Significance Statement

Tropical cyclones pose significant risks to coastal and inland U.S. populations. This project aims to improve creation, communication, and use of tropical cyclone forecast and warning information by studying broadcast meteorologists’ and emergency managers’ information needs for decision-making during different phases of tropical cyclone threats. We identify several priority areas for improvement, including advancing longer-lead-time storm surge forecast communication, enhancing dissemination of forecast updates, and increasing use of concise text highlights. Additional findings include the importance of locally interpretable forecast information, the value of human forecasters in weather risk communication, and the need for iterative, user-informed forecast product development. These findings can help NOAA and the research community improve forecast communication and invest in research that facilitates continued improvements.

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Razieh Saboohi
,
Hossein Barani
,
Morteza Khodagholi
,
Ahmad Abedi Sarvestani
,
Asghar Tahmasebi
, and
Hart Nadav Feuer

Abstract

Nomadic pastoral communities are considered some of the most vulnerable to climate change. While Indigenous knowledge can play an effective role in mitigating or responding to some impacts of climate change, the extent of their capacity to adapt their livestock and rangeland management is under question. This research aims to assess the scope and applicability of climate change–related knowledge acquired in the management of summer rangeland, with a case study in Semirom, Isfahan Province, Iran. To do so, objective weather conditions (precipitation, minimum temperatures, and maximum temperatures) were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and compared with subjective evaluations by nomad community members. Specifically, the study targeted a community of 7700 members of the Qashqai, a conglomeration of nomadic tribes in Iran. Their understanding of the weather was evaluated using focus groups and self-administered questionnaires, with a descriptive approach to data analysis. The findings of the climatic investigation revealed a possible shift in the climate in the study area, particularly in winter and autumn. The findings of subjective evaluation showed similar changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature to be the main characteristics of climate change in the region, with about 90% of informants directly citing decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature and wind speeds. The community evaluation also highlighted some adaptations to climate change, such as delays in beginning the seasonal migration, increased reliance on concrete homes, reservoir construction, decreasing livestock yields, and increasing diversification of resources to feed livestock. Understanding the perceptions of nomadic pastoralists, their meteorological basis, and ongoing climate adaptations can facilitate governmental planning.

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Katy Harris
,
Frida Lager
,
Marta K. Jansen
, and
Magnus Benzie

Abstract

Recent research has highlighted that adaptation tends to focus exclusively on the local and direct impacts of climate change and misses the crucial dimension of transboundary climate risk, which all countries are likely to face, irrespective of their level of development. This paper aims to improve the coverage of transboundary climate risk in case-study research for adaptation. It proposes a protocol to help researchers identify how their case studies can incorporate an analysis of transboundary climate risk, thereby supporting more holistic, effective, and just approaches to adaptation. Existing climate risk assessment frameworks and supporting guidelines have significant strengths but also various challenges when applied to the novel context of transboundary climate risk. This is illustrated with reference to the impact chain framework. Its opportunities pertain to both its flexible form and systems-first focus while its constraints include an analytic emphasis on linear cause–effect relationships (that bely the complexity and uncertainty of systemic risk) and its limited applicability to fragmented governance landscapes (in the absence of an effective consideration of risk ownership). After critically examining the suitability of the impact chain framework, a new protocol is introduced, which builds on principles for managing complex risk and frameworks for assessing risk ownership. The protocol is designed to enable case-study researchers to better identify, assess, and appraise transboundary climate risks, as well as enquire into appropriate risk owners and adaptation options across scales. The paper argues for more innovation in adaptation research to better reflect the complexity and interdependency that characterize today’s world.

Significance Statement

This work aims to demonstrate why the transboundary nature of climate risk requires a distinct analytical approach and proposes a seven-step guide that aims to facilitate the exploration of transboundary climate risk through case-study-based research for adaptation. Domestic climate risks continue to dominate the field of climate change research, translating into a significant blind spot in adaptation planning and action. Without the provision of practical guidance—to equip researchers with approaches and tools specifically designed to analyze the transboundary and systemic nature of climate risk—adaptation action will fail to offer sufficient protection against the full range of risks climate change presents. This article begins to address this void and ultimately—through greater recognition and understanding of transboundary climate risk—promote approaches to adaptation that are reflective of the interdependency of our world today and our shared and common future.

Open access
Igor GĂłmez
,
Enric Valor
,
Sergio Molina
,
Raquel Niclòs
, and
Vicente Caselles

Abstract

Weather forecasts affect many persons’ lives and are used by the general public on a daily basis. However, they are not perfect, and there is an uncertainty associated with the current weather forecasts; users should be aware of this uncertainty. Previous research analyzes the perceptions, uses, and interpretations of uncertainty of Spanish undergraduate students. This study continues with this research line, but we investigate the degree of confidence and communication preferences of students enrolled in three meteorology-related subjects taught at two universities in Spain. We evaluated to what extent students trust in the current weather forecasts and analyzed how students are aware of the uncertainty associated with the forecasts considering different lead times. In addition, we assessed how students value the forecast of several weather elements as well as the students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts under two weather situations, with different degree of complexity in the forecast communication. A Google Form questionnaire was developed to address these issues. The survey was conducted in 2018/19, and 101 participants anonymously filled out the survey. Participants were enrolled in three different subjects taught in the degree in marine sciences at the University of Alicante and the degrees in environmental sciences and physics at the University of Valencia. Results show that students have a well-formed opinion of weather forecasts, both for confidence and in relation to the trend found in the current weather forecasts toward less accurate forecasts for larger lead times. For students’ preferences for deterministic versus nondeterministic forecasts, a significant majority of participants prefer weather forecasts that incorporate some uncertainty; a minority prefer single-valued (deterministic) forecasts. In comparing our results with those found in previous studies in different countries and contexts, similar outcomes are observed in general, but some differences are highlighted as well.

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Joshua J. Hatzis
and
Kim E. Klockow-McClain

Abstract

On 31 May 2013, an extremely large and violent tornado hit near the town of El Reno, Oklahoma, a small town in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. The size and intensity of this tornado, coupled with the fact that it was heading toward Oklahoma City, prompted local broadcasters to warn residents to evacuate their homes and head south if they could not shelter belowground. This warning led to a large-scale evacuation of the metropolitan area and massive traffic jams on the interstates and major highways that could have caused casualties in the hundreds if the tornado had not dissipated before reaching Oklahoma City. The focus of this study was to understand the magnitude of the 31 May 2013 evacuation through the evaluation of traffic volume data and to determine how frequently such evacuations occur in Oklahoma City and other metropolitan areas. We found that of the six metropolitan areas tested, only Oklahoma City had mass anomalous traffic reversal (ATR) days (days with a mass evacuation signal) with 31 May 2013 having the largest mass ATR day by far. Despite the rarity of mass ATR days, the potential consequences of a large, violent tornado hitting gridlocked traffic is significant, and we recommend that communicators encourage more local sheltering options.

Significance Statement

On the evening of 31 May 2013, a large-scale evacuation of the Oklahoma City metropolitan area occurred as a result of a very large and dangerous tornado that had formed near the town of El Reno and was moving east toward Oklahoma City. If the tornado had not dissipated before it reached the city it could have caused hundreds of casualties as it passed over gridlocked roads. We sought to understand the frequency of such mass evacuations and found that no other event in six metropolitan areas studied during 2011–18 could compare. While such evacuations fortunately appear rare, more work should be done to understand why they happen when they do and to connect individuals with better local sheltering options.

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Temi Emmanuel Ologunorisa
,
Adebayo Oluwole Eludoyin
, and
Bola Lateef

Abstract

Flood-induced fatalities are among the more poorly reported effects of flood disasters in many developing countries because of poor data inventory and management. Specific objectives of this study are to assess the spatial and temporal variations in flood fatalities in Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa. The study explored available datasets from the National (Nigerian) Meteorological and Emergency Management Agencies as well as those from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) at the University of Colorado Boulder and complemented those with scattered reports from Nigerian newspapers to achieve the stated objectives. Using a mix of statistical and geographical information analysis approaches, the study showed that most of Nigeria is vulnerable to flood, given the nature of the dominant climate that often results in “medium” to “high” rainfall intensity (i.e., rainfall = 38.1–50.1 mm or > 50.1 mm in 24 h, respectively), inadequate settlement planning/land-use and land-cover management, and dam failure. Analysis of the frequency of the flood–fatality relationship indicates an increase in flood fatalities by 4.7% relative to flood cases between 1985 and 2017. The study complemented the results with information from newspapers and some other non-peer-reviewed documents (especially reports from relevant agencies) and revealed the need for a better flood information management system in the country, especially since the national database and DFO records were not the same. The study concluded that flood fatalities are on the increase but are poorly reported. It thus recommends improved information systems for flood and other disasters and their fatalities in the country.

Significance Statement

The purpose of this study is to reveal the state of information on flood disasters in a typical sub-Saharan African country. This is important because information about the distribution and trend of fatalities associated with flood disasters is required for sustainable mitigation planning globally. Our results provide a guide to understanding the distribution and associated factors of flood disasters as well as the contributions of informal (newspaper) sources to the inventory of relevant records.

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Jiyoun Kim
,
Anita Atwell Seate
,
Brooke F. Liu
,
Daniel Hawblitzel
, and
Theodore Funk

Abstract

Weather warnings are critical risk communication messages because they have the potential to save lives and property during emergencies. However, making warning decisions is challenging. While there have been significant advances in technological weather forecasting, recent research suggests that social factors, including communication, influence warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn. We examine the roles of both scientific and social factors in predicting warning meteorologists’ decisions to warn on tornadoes. To do so, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of National Weather Service forecasters and members of management in the southern and the central regions of the United States, as well as conducted a retrospective data analysis of cross-sectional survey data from the central region Tornado Warning Improvement Project. Results reveal that dependency on radar velocity couplet and a variety of social factors predicted decisions to warn.

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