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Samantha H. Hartke, Daniel B. Wright, Dalia B. Kirschbaum, Thomas A. Stanley, and Zhe Li

Abstract

Many existing models that predict landslide hazards utilize ground-based sources of precipitation data. In locations where ground-based precipitation observations are limited (i.e., a vast majority of the globe), or for landslide hazard models that assess regional or global domains, satellite multisensor precipitation products offer a promising near-real-time alternative to ground-based data. NASA’s global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model uses the Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) product to issue hazard “nowcasts” in near–real time for areas that are currently at risk for landsliding. Satellite-based precipitation estimates, however, can contain considerable systematic bias and random error, especially over mountainous terrain and during extreme rainfall events. This study combines a precipitation error modeling framework with a probabilistic adaptation of LHASA. Compared with the routine version of LHASA, this probabilistic version correctly predicts more of the observed landslides in the study region with fewer false alarms by high hazard nowcasts. This study demonstrates that improvements in landslide hazard prediction can be achieved regardless of whether the IMERG error model is trained using abundant ground-based precipitation observations or using far fewer and more scattered observations, suggesting that the approach is viable in data-limited regions. Results emphasize the importance of accounting for both random error and systematic satellite precipitation bias. The approach provides an example of how environmental prediction models can incorporate satellite precipitation uncertainty. Other applications such as flood and drought monitoring and forecasting could likely benefit from consideration of precipitation uncertainty.

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Shruti A. Upadhyaya, Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter, Jonathan J. Gourley, and Robert J. Kuligowski

ABSTRACT

The launch of NOAA’s latest generation of geostationary satellites known as the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R Series has opened new opportunities in quantifying precipitation rates. Recent efforts have strived to utilize these data to improve space-based precipitation retrievals. The overall objective of the present work is to carry out a detailed error budget analysis of the improved Self-Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval (SCaMPR) algorithm for GOES-R and the passive microwave (MW) combined (MWCOMB) precipitation dataset used to calibrate it with an aim to provide insights regarding strengths and weaknesses of these products. This study systematically analyzes the errors across different climate regions and also as a function of different precipitation types over the conterminous United States. The reference precipitation dataset is Ground-Validation Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (GV-MRMS). Overall, MWCOMB reveals smaller errors as compared to SCaMPR. However, the analysis indicated that that the major portion of error in SCaMPR is propagated from the MWCOMB calibration data. The major challenge starts with poor detection from MWCOMB, which propagates in SCaMPR. In particular, MWCOMB misses 90% of cool stratiform precipitation and the overall detection score is around 40%. The ability of the algorithms to quantify precipitation amounts for the Warm Stratiform, Cool Stratiform, and Tropical/Stratiform Mix categories is poor compared to the Convective and Tropical/Convective Mix categories with additional challenges in complex terrain regions. Further analysis showed strong similarities in systematic and random error models with both products. This suggests that the potential of high-resolution GOES-R observations remains underutilized in SCaMPR due to the errors from the calibrator MWCOMB.

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