Browse
Abstract
Freshwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet is routed to the ocean through narrow fjords along the coastline where it impacts ecosystems both within the fjord and on the continental shelf, regional circulation, and potentially the global overturning circulation. However, the timing of freshwater export is sensitive to the residence time of waters within glacial fjords. Here, we present evidence of seasonal freshwater storage in a tidewater glacial fjord using hydrographic and velocity data collected over 10 days during the summers of 2012 and 2013 in Saqqarleq (SQ), a midsize fjord in west Greenland. The data revealed a rapid freshening trend of −0.05 ± 0.01 and −0.04 ± 0.01 g kg−1 day−1 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, within the intermediate layer of the fjord (15–100 m) less than 2.5 km from the glacier terminus. The freshening trend is driven, in part, by the downward mixing of outflowing glacially modified water near the surface and increasingly stratifies the fjord from the surface downward over the summer melt season. We construct a box model that recreates the first-order dynamics of the fjord and describes freshwater storage as a balance between friction and density-driven exchange outside the fjord. The model can be used to diagnose the time scale for this balance to be reached, and for SQ we find a month lag between subglacial meltwater discharge and net freshwater export. These results indicate a fjord-induced delay in freshwater export to the ocean that should be represented in large-scale models seeking to understand the impact of Greenland freshwater on the regional climate system.
Abstract
Freshwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet is routed to the ocean through narrow fjords along the coastline where it impacts ecosystems both within the fjord and on the continental shelf, regional circulation, and potentially the global overturning circulation. However, the timing of freshwater export is sensitive to the residence time of waters within glacial fjords. Here, we present evidence of seasonal freshwater storage in a tidewater glacial fjord using hydrographic and velocity data collected over 10 days during the summers of 2012 and 2013 in Saqqarleq (SQ), a midsize fjord in west Greenland. The data revealed a rapid freshening trend of −0.05 ± 0.01 and −0.04 ± 0.01 g kg−1 day−1 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, within the intermediate layer of the fjord (15–100 m) less than 2.5 km from the glacier terminus. The freshening trend is driven, in part, by the downward mixing of outflowing glacially modified water near the surface and increasingly stratifies the fjord from the surface downward over the summer melt season. We construct a box model that recreates the first-order dynamics of the fjord and describes freshwater storage as a balance between friction and density-driven exchange outside the fjord. The model can be used to diagnose the time scale for this balance to be reached, and for SQ we find a month lag between subglacial meltwater discharge and net freshwater export. These results indicate a fjord-induced delay in freshwater export to the ocean that should be represented in large-scale models seeking to understand the impact of Greenland freshwater on the regional climate system.
Abstract
The generation of broadband wave energy frequency spectra from narrowband wave forcing in geophysical flows remains a conundrum. In contrast to the long-standing view that nonlinear wave–wave interactions drive the spreading of wave energy in frequency space, recent work suggests that Doppler-shifting by geostrophic flows may be the primary agent. We investigate this possibility by ray tracing a large number of inertia–gravity wave packets through three-dimensional, geostrophically turbulent flows generated either by a quasigeostrophic (QG) simulation or by synthetic random processes. We find that, in all cases investigated, a broadband quasi-stationary inertia–gravity wave frequency spectrum forms, irrespective of the initial frequencies and wave vectors of the packets. The frequency spectrum is well represented by a power law. A possible theoretical explanation relies on the analogy between the kinematic stretching of passive tracer gradients and the refraction of wave vectors. Consistent with this hypothesis, the spectrum of eigenvalues of the background flow velocity gradients predicts a frequency spectrum that is nearly identical to that found by integration of the ray tracing equations.
Abstract
The generation of broadband wave energy frequency spectra from narrowband wave forcing in geophysical flows remains a conundrum. In contrast to the long-standing view that nonlinear wave–wave interactions drive the spreading of wave energy in frequency space, recent work suggests that Doppler-shifting by geostrophic flows may be the primary agent. We investigate this possibility by ray tracing a large number of inertia–gravity wave packets through three-dimensional, geostrophically turbulent flows generated either by a quasigeostrophic (QG) simulation or by synthetic random processes. We find that, in all cases investigated, a broadband quasi-stationary inertia–gravity wave frequency spectrum forms, irrespective of the initial frequencies and wave vectors of the packets. The frequency spectrum is well represented by a power law. A possible theoretical explanation relies on the analogy between the kinematic stretching of passive tracer gradients and the refraction of wave vectors. Consistent with this hypothesis, the spectrum of eigenvalues of the background flow velocity gradients predicts a frequency spectrum that is nearly identical to that found by integration of the ray tracing equations.
Abstract
Energetic internal tides in the Pacific Ocean generated from multiple sources are the subject of many studies, although the subpolar North Pacific (SNP) is known as a high-latitude hotspot that remains less explored. The present study is the first detailed investigation on M2 internal tide energetics and dynamics in the SNP by high-resolution numerical simulations. The M2 internal tides in the SNP mainly originate from the Aleutian Ridge (area-integrated 5.51 GW and averaged ∼10−3 W m−2 of barotropic-to-baroclinic conversion rate), wherein the Amukta Pass is the most significant source. The Amukta Pass radiates northward 0.55 GW (averaged 2.3 kW m−1) to the Bering Sea and southward 1.40 GW (averaged 3.7 kW m−1) to the North Pacific. The subsequent south–north asymmetric radiation pattern is consistent with satellite altimeter detection. In the Bering basin, multiwave superposition in the near field between the Amukta Pass and adjacent sources generates two standing wave patterns. After approaching the Bering Sea slope, remote internal tides from Aleutian Ridge enhance local generation and dissipation. The dissipation field is relatively similar to the generation map, which is explained by the higher local dissipation efficiency q (>1/2) and the faster energy attenuation than in the midlatitudes. The simulated dissipation rates compare favorably with the estimate from fine-scale parameterization, indicating the dominance of internal tidal mixing. The averaged dissipation rate in SNP is O(10−10) W kg−1, and the depth-integrated dissipation rates reach O(10−1) W m−2 near the Amukta Pass. It is important to understand the unique physics and dissipative process of high-latitude internal tides to fully characterize the redistribution of global tidal energy and associated mixing.
Abstract
Energetic internal tides in the Pacific Ocean generated from multiple sources are the subject of many studies, although the subpolar North Pacific (SNP) is known as a high-latitude hotspot that remains less explored. The present study is the first detailed investigation on M2 internal tide energetics and dynamics in the SNP by high-resolution numerical simulations. The M2 internal tides in the SNP mainly originate from the Aleutian Ridge (area-integrated 5.51 GW and averaged ∼10−3 W m−2 of barotropic-to-baroclinic conversion rate), wherein the Amukta Pass is the most significant source. The Amukta Pass radiates northward 0.55 GW (averaged 2.3 kW m−1) to the Bering Sea and southward 1.40 GW (averaged 3.7 kW m−1) to the North Pacific. The subsequent south–north asymmetric radiation pattern is consistent with satellite altimeter detection. In the Bering basin, multiwave superposition in the near field between the Amukta Pass and adjacent sources generates two standing wave patterns. After approaching the Bering Sea slope, remote internal tides from Aleutian Ridge enhance local generation and dissipation. The dissipation field is relatively similar to the generation map, which is explained by the higher local dissipation efficiency q (>1/2) and the faster energy attenuation than in the midlatitudes. The simulated dissipation rates compare favorably with the estimate from fine-scale parameterization, indicating the dominance of internal tidal mixing. The averaged dissipation rate in SNP is O(10−10) W kg−1, and the depth-integrated dissipation rates reach O(10−1) W m−2 near the Amukta Pass. It is important to understand the unique physics and dissipative process of high-latitude internal tides to fully characterize the redistribution of global tidal energy and associated mixing.
Abstract
Breaking internal tides contribute substantially to small-scale turbulent mixing in the ocean interior and hence to maintaining the large-scale overturning circulation. How much internal tide energy is available for ocean mixing can be estimated by using semianalytical methods based on linear theory. Until recently, a method resolving the horizontal direction of the internal waves generated by conversion of the barotropic tide was lacking. We here present the first global application of such a method to the first vertical mode of the principal lunar semidiurnal internal tide. We also show that the effect of supercritical slopes on the modally decomposed internal tides is different than previously suggested. To deal with this the continental shelf and the shelf slope are masked in the global computation. The global energy conversion obtained agrees roughly with the previous results by Falahat et al. if the mask is applied to their result, which decreases their energy conversion by half. Thus, around half of the energy conversion obtained by their linear calculations occurs at continental slopes and shelves, where linear theory tends to break down. The barotropic-to-baroclinic energy flux at subcritical slopes away from the continental margins is shown to vary substantially with direction depending on the shape and orientation of topographic obstacles and the direction of the local tidal currents. Taking this additional information into account in tidal mixing parameterizations could have important ramifications for vertical mixing and water mass properties in global numerical simulations.
Abstract
Breaking internal tides contribute substantially to small-scale turbulent mixing in the ocean interior and hence to maintaining the large-scale overturning circulation. How much internal tide energy is available for ocean mixing can be estimated by using semianalytical methods based on linear theory. Until recently, a method resolving the horizontal direction of the internal waves generated by conversion of the barotropic tide was lacking. We here present the first global application of such a method to the first vertical mode of the principal lunar semidiurnal internal tide. We also show that the effect of supercritical slopes on the modally decomposed internal tides is different than previously suggested. To deal with this the continental shelf and the shelf slope are masked in the global computation. The global energy conversion obtained agrees roughly with the previous results by Falahat et al. if the mask is applied to their result, which decreases their energy conversion by half. Thus, around half of the energy conversion obtained by their linear calculations occurs at continental slopes and shelves, where linear theory tends to break down. The barotropic-to-baroclinic energy flux at subcritical slopes away from the continental margins is shown to vary substantially with direction depending on the shape and orientation of topographic obstacles and the direction of the local tidal currents. Taking this additional information into account in tidal mixing parameterizations could have important ramifications for vertical mixing and water mass properties in global numerical simulations.
Abstract
A long-standing challenge in dynamical oceanography is to distinguish nonlinearly intermingled dynamical regimes of oceanic flows. Conventional approaches focus on time-scale or space-scale decomposition. Here, we pursue a dynamics-based decomposition, where a mean flow is introduced to extend the classic theory of wavy and vortical modes. Mainly based on relative magnitudes of the relative vorticity and the modified horizontal divergence in spectral space, the full flow is decomposed into wavy and vortical motions. The proposed approach proves simple and efficient and can be used particularly for online disentangling vortical and wavy motions of the simulated flows by ever-popular tide-resolving high-resolution numerical models. This dynamical approach, combined with conventional time-scale- or space-scale-based approaches, paves the way for online mixing parameterizations using model simulated vortical (for isopycnal mixing) and wavy (for diapycnal mixing) motions and for understanding of multiregime and multiscale interactions of oceanic flows.
Abstract
A long-standing challenge in dynamical oceanography is to distinguish nonlinearly intermingled dynamical regimes of oceanic flows. Conventional approaches focus on time-scale or space-scale decomposition. Here, we pursue a dynamics-based decomposition, where a mean flow is introduced to extend the classic theory of wavy and vortical modes. Mainly based on relative magnitudes of the relative vorticity and the modified horizontal divergence in spectral space, the full flow is decomposed into wavy and vortical motions. The proposed approach proves simple and efficient and can be used particularly for online disentangling vortical and wavy motions of the simulated flows by ever-popular tide-resolving high-resolution numerical models. This dynamical approach, combined with conventional time-scale- or space-scale-based approaches, paves the way for online mixing parameterizations using model simulated vortical (for isopycnal mixing) and wavy (for diapycnal mixing) motions and for understanding of multiregime and multiscale interactions of oceanic flows.
Abstract
A combination of in situ and remotely sensed observations are used to constrain the imprint of submesoscale turbulence in the sea surface height (SSH) field. The distribution of SSH variance across frequencies and wavenumbers is estimated by comparing an empirical model spectrum to two sets of observations. First, submesoscale SSH variance is constrained using a pair of GPS buoys spaced at about 10 km. From these data, one can estimate frequency spectra not only of SSH variance but also of the variance in the SSH difference between the buoys. The ratio between these two spectral estimates is sensitive to how much SSH variance is present in the submesoscale range and thus constrains the spectral roll-off of SSH variance in wavenumber space. Second, a combination of moored current meters and nadir altimetry is used to obtain an independent constraint. This constraint is enabled by geostrophy and the nonseparability of the wavenumber–frequency spectrum of SSH variance revealed by the GPS data. The frequency spectra of kinetic energy and SSH variance follow different power laws, and the difference constrains the spectral content in wavenumber space, allowing for a constraint without the need to actually resolve the submesoscales in space. In all four locations studied, spanning the midlatitude and subtropical ocean, these constraints indicate that the wavenumber spectral roll-off of submesoscale SSH variance is between about k− 4 and k− 5, where k is the wavenumber. These estimates are consistent with previous observations, model results, and theoretical predictions. They provide for a strong prior for the interpretation of upcoming high-resolution satellite data.
Abstract
A combination of in situ and remotely sensed observations are used to constrain the imprint of submesoscale turbulence in the sea surface height (SSH) field. The distribution of SSH variance across frequencies and wavenumbers is estimated by comparing an empirical model spectrum to two sets of observations. First, submesoscale SSH variance is constrained using a pair of GPS buoys spaced at about 10 km. From these data, one can estimate frequency spectra not only of SSH variance but also of the variance in the SSH difference between the buoys. The ratio between these two spectral estimates is sensitive to how much SSH variance is present in the submesoscale range and thus constrains the spectral roll-off of SSH variance in wavenumber space. Second, a combination of moored current meters and nadir altimetry is used to obtain an independent constraint. This constraint is enabled by geostrophy and the nonseparability of the wavenumber–frequency spectrum of SSH variance revealed by the GPS data. The frequency spectra of kinetic energy and SSH variance follow different power laws, and the difference constrains the spectral content in wavenumber space, allowing for a constraint without the need to actually resolve the submesoscales in space. In all four locations studied, spanning the midlatitude and subtropical ocean, these constraints indicate that the wavenumber spectral roll-off of submesoscale SSH variance is between about k− 4 and k− 5, where k is the wavenumber. These estimates are consistent with previous observations, model results, and theoretical predictions. They provide for a strong prior for the interpretation of upcoming high-resolution satellite data.
Abstract
It is now well established that changes in the zonal wind stress over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) do not lead to changes in its baroclinicity nor baroclinic transport, a phenomenon referred to as “eddy saturation.” Previous studies provide contrasting dynamical mechanisms for this phenomenon: on one extreme, changes in the winds lead to changes in the efficiency with which transient eddies transfer momentum to the sea floor; on the other extreme, structural adjustments of the ACC’s standing meanders increase the efficiency of momentum transfer. In this study the authors investigate the relative importance of these mechanisms using an idealized, isopycnal channel model of the ACC. Via separate diagnoses of the model’s time-mean flow and eddy diffusivity, the authors decompose the model’s response to changes in wind stress into contributions from transient eddies and the mean flow. A key result is that holding the transient eddy diffusivity constant while varying the mean flow very closely compensates for changes in the wind stress, whereas holding the mean flow constant and varying the eddy diffusivity does not. This implies that eddy saturation primarily occurs due to adjustments in the ACC’s standing waves/meanders, rather than due to adjustments of transient eddy behavior. The authors derive a quasigeostrophic theory for ACC transport saturation by standing waves, in which the transient eddy diffusivity is held fixed, and thus provides dynamical insights into standing wave adjustment to wind changes. These findings imply that representing eddy saturation in global models requires adequate resolution of the ACC’s standing meanders, with wind-responsive parameterizations of the transient eddies being of secondary importance.
Abstract
It is now well established that changes in the zonal wind stress over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) do not lead to changes in its baroclinicity nor baroclinic transport, a phenomenon referred to as “eddy saturation.” Previous studies provide contrasting dynamical mechanisms for this phenomenon: on one extreme, changes in the winds lead to changes in the efficiency with which transient eddies transfer momentum to the sea floor; on the other extreme, structural adjustments of the ACC’s standing meanders increase the efficiency of momentum transfer. In this study the authors investigate the relative importance of these mechanisms using an idealized, isopycnal channel model of the ACC. Via separate diagnoses of the model’s time-mean flow and eddy diffusivity, the authors decompose the model’s response to changes in wind stress into contributions from transient eddies and the mean flow. A key result is that holding the transient eddy diffusivity constant while varying the mean flow very closely compensates for changes in the wind stress, whereas holding the mean flow constant and varying the eddy diffusivity does not. This implies that eddy saturation primarily occurs due to adjustments in the ACC’s standing waves/meanders, rather than due to adjustments of transient eddy behavior. The authors derive a quasigeostrophic theory for ACC transport saturation by standing waves, in which the transient eddy diffusivity is held fixed, and thus provides dynamical insights into standing wave adjustment to wind changes. These findings imply that representing eddy saturation in global models requires adequate resolution of the ACC’s standing meanders, with wind-responsive parameterizations of the transient eddies being of secondary importance.
Abstract
The dynamic theory of curvature-induced lateral circulation has been developed for open channel flows but not for oscillatory tides. A linear three-dimensional analytical model was developed to investigate the lateral circulation in an elongated tidal channel with mildly curved bends of which the radius of curvature is larger than the width. The curvature-induced lateral circulation has two components with the same amplitude, namely, a periodic component having an overtide frequency and a steady component. The combination of the two components allows the strength of the lateral circulation to vary periodically and the rotation direction to be unchanged during a tidal period. Friction modifies the strength and structure of the lateral circulation. The phase between the lateral flow and streamwise tidal flow decreases with increasing friction, indicating that the two flows are not necessarily in phase unless friction is strong. The lateral circulations driven by the Coriolis and curvature centrifugal forces augment each other during one phase and compete in the opposite phase, and the relative importance of the two circulations is determined by the Rossby number and friction. The adaptation time is the same for spinup and spindown of the curvature-induced lateral circulation and is determined by water depth and vertical eddy viscosity. The estimation of the adaptation time depends on the leading modes because the transition solution of the curvature-induced lateral circulation comprises a series of cosine modes. These results provide a theoretical basis for interpreting curvature-induced lateral circulation in tidal channels and coastal headlands.
Significance Statement
The dynamic theory of curvature-induced lateral circulation in a tidal flow remains unexplored. The purpose of this study is to understand the essentials of curvature-induced lateral circulation in an elongated tidal channel using a three-dimensional analytical model. The results showed that the curvature-induced lateral circulation has two components with the same amplitude: a periodic component having an overtide frequency and a steady component. This is significantly different from the curvature-induced lateral circulation associated with open channel flows, which is steady and in phase with the streamwise flow. Future work may show the role of curvature-induced lateral circulation in streamwise dynamics and mass transport.
Abstract
The dynamic theory of curvature-induced lateral circulation has been developed for open channel flows but not for oscillatory tides. A linear three-dimensional analytical model was developed to investigate the lateral circulation in an elongated tidal channel with mildly curved bends of which the radius of curvature is larger than the width. The curvature-induced lateral circulation has two components with the same amplitude, namely, a periodic component having an overtide frequency and a steady component. The combination of the two components allows the strength of the lateral circulation to vary periodically and the rotation direction to be unchanged during a tidal period. Friction modifies the strength and structure of the lateral circulation. The phase between the lateral flow and streamwise tidal flow decreases with increasing friction, indicating that the two flows are not necessarily in phase unless friction is strong. The lateral circulations driven by the Coriolis and curvature centrifugal forces augment each other during one phase and compete in the opposite phase, and the relative importance of the two circulations is determined by the Rossby number and friction. The adaptation time is the same for spinup and spindown of the curvature-induced lateral circulation and is determined by water depth and vertical eddy viscosity. The estimation of the adaptation time depends on the leading modes because the transition solution of the curvature-induced lateral circulation comprises a series of cosine modes. These results provide a theoretical basis for interpreting curvature-induced lateral circulation in tidal channels and coastal headlands.
Significance Statement
The dynamic theory of curvature-induced lateral circulation in a tidal flow remains unexplored. The purpose of this study is to understand the essentials of curvature-induced lateral circulation in an elongated tidal channel using a three-dimensional analytical model. The results showed that the curvature-induced lateral circulation has two components with the same amplitude: a periodic component having an overtide frequency and a steady component. This is significantly different from the curvature-induced lateral circulation associated with open channel flows, which is steady and in phase with the streamwise flow. Future work may show the role of curvature-induced lateral circulation in streamwise dynamics and mass transport.
Abstract
This study investigates the seasonal features and generation mechanisms of submesoscale processes (SMPs) in the southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 2011/12, based on the output of a high-resolution model, LLC4320 (latitude–longitude–polar cap). The results show that the southern BoB exhibits the most energetic SMPs, with significant seasonal variations. The SMPs are more active during the summer and winter monsoon periods. During the monsoon periods, the sharpening horizontal buoyancy gradients associated with strong straining effects favor the frontogenesis and mixed layer instability (MLI), which are responsible for the SMPs generation. The symmetric instability (SI) scale is about 3–10 km in the southern BoB, which can be partially resolved by LLC4320. The SI is more active during summer and winter, with a proportion of 40%–80% during the study period when the necessary conditions for SI are satisfied. Energetics analysis suggests that the energy source of SMPs is mainly from the local large-scale and mesoscale processes. Baroclinic instability at submesoscales plays a significant role, further confirming the importance of frontogenesis and MLI. Barotropic instability also has considerable contribution to the submesoscale kinetic energy, especially during summer.
Significance Statement
Submesoscale processes (SMPs) are ubiquitous in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Affected by the seasonally reversing monsoon, abundant rainfall and runoff, and equatorial remote forcing, the upper circulation in the BoB is complex, featuring active mesoscale eddies and rich submesoscale phenomena, making the BoB a “natural test ground” for submesoscale studies. It is found in this work that characteristics of SMPs in the BoB are quite different from other regions. In the southern bay, SMPs are most active during the summer and winter monsoons due to the frontogenesis, enhanced mixed layer instability (MLI), and symmetric instability. These findings could deepen our understanding on multiscale dynamic processes and energy cascade in the BoB and have implications for the study of marine ecology and biogeochemical processes.
Abstract
This study investigates the seasonal features and generation mechanisms of submesoscale processes (SMPs) in the southern Bay of Bengal (BoB) during 2011/12, based on the output of a high-resolution model, LLC4320 (latitude–longitude–polar cap). The results show that the southern BoB exhibits the most energetic SMPs, with significant seasonal variations. The SMPs are more active during the summer and winter monsoon periods. During the monsoon periods, the sharpening horizontal buoyancy gradients associated with strong straining effects favor the frontogenesis and mixed layer instability (MLI), which are responsible for the SMPs generation. The symmetric instability (SI) scale is about 3–10 km in the southern BoB, which can be partially resolved by LLC4320. The SI is more active during summer and winter, with a proportion of 40%–80% during the study period when the necessary conditions for SI are satisfied. Energetics analysis suggests that the energy source of SMPs is mainly from the local large-scale and mesoscale processes. Baroclinic instability at submesoscales plays a significant role, further confirming the importance of frontogenesis and MLI. Barotropic instability also has considerable contribution to the submesoscale kinetic energy, especially during summer.
Significance Statement
Submesoscale processes (SMPs) are ubiquitous in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Affected by the seasonally reversing monsoon, abundant rainfall and runoff, and equatorial remote forcing, the upper circulation in the BoB is complex, featuring active mesoscale eddies and rich submesoscale phenomena, making the BoB a “natural test ground” for submesoscale studies. It is found in this work that characteristics of SMPs in the BoB are quite different from other regions. In the southern bay, SMPs are most active during the summer and winter monsoons due to the frontogenesis, enhanced mixed layer instability (MLI), and symmetric instability. These findings could deepen our understanding on multiscale dynamic processes and energy cascade in the BoB and have implications for the study of marine ecology and biogeochemical processes.
Abstract
In this note, we apply transition path theory (TPT) from Markov chains to shed light on the problem of Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) equatorward export. A recent analysis of observed trajectories of submerged floats demanded revision of the traditional abyssal circulation theory, which postulates that ISOW should steadily flow along a deep boundary current (DBC) around the subpolar North Atlantic prior to exiting it. The TPT analyses carried out here allow attention to be focused on the portions of flow from the origin of ISOW to the region where ISOW exits the subpolar North Atlantic and suggest that insufficient sampling may be biasing the aforementioned demand. The analyses, appropriately adapted to represent a continuous input of ISOW, are carried out on three time-homogeneous Markov chains modeling the ISOW flow. One is constructed using a high number of simulated trajectories homogeneously covering the flow domain. The other two use much fewer trajectories which heterogeneously cover the domain. The trajectories in the latter two chains are observed trajectories or simulated trajectories subsampled at the observed frequency. While the densely sampled chain supports a well-defined DBC, whether this is a peculiarity of the simulation considered or not, the more heterogeneously sampled chains do not, irrespective of the nature of the trajectories used, i.e., observed or simulated. Studying the sampling sensitivity of the Markov chains, we can give recommendations for enlarging the existing float dataset to improve the significance of conclusions about long-time-asymptotic aspects of the ISOW circulation.
Abstract
In this note, we apply transition path theory (TPT) from Markov chains to shed light on the problem of Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) equatorward export. A recent analysis of observed trajectories of submerged floats demanded revision of the traditional abyssal circulation theory, which postulates that ISOW should steadily flow along a deep boundary current (DBC) around the subpolar North Atlantic prior to exiting it. The TPT analyses carried out here allow attention to be focused on the portions of flow from the origin of ISOW to the region where ISOW exits the subpolar North Atlantic and suggest that insufficient sampling may be biasing the aforementioned demand. The analyses, appropriately adapted to represent a continuous input of ISOW, are carried out on three time-homogeneous Markov chains modeling the ISOW flow. One is constructed using a high number of simulated trajectories homogeneously covering the flow domain. The other two use much fewer trajectories which heterogeneously cover the domain. The trajectories in the latter two chains are observed trajectories or simulated trajectories subsampled at the observed frequency. While the densely sampled chain supports a well-defined DBC, whether this is a peculiarity of the simulation considered or not, the more heterogeneously sampled chains do not, irrespective of the nature of the trajectories used, i.e., observed or simulated. Studying the sampling sensitivity of the Markov chains, we can give recommendations for enlarging the existing float dataset to improve the significance of conclusions about long-time-asymptotic aspects of the ISOW circulation.
