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Abstract
A traditional view is that the ocean outside of the tropics responds passively to atmosphere forcing, which implies that air–sea heat fluxes are mainly driven by atmosphere variability. This paper tests this viewpoint using state-of-the-art air–sea turbulent heat flux observational analyses and a climate model run at different resolutions. It is found that in midlatitude ocean frontal zones the variability of air–sea heat fluxes is not predominantly driven by the atmosphere variations but instead is forced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations arising from intrinsic oceanic variability. Meanwhile in most of the tropics and subtropics wind is the dominant driver of heat flux variability, and atmosphere humidity is mainly important in higher latitudes. The predominance of ocean forcing of heat fluxes found in frontal regions occurs on scales of around 700 km or less. Spatially smoothing the data to larger scales results in the traditional atmosphere-driving case, while filtering to retain only small scales of 5° or less leads to ocean forcing of heat fluxes over most of the globe. All observational analyses examined (1° OAFlux; 0.25° J-OFURO3; 0.25° SeaFlux) show this general behavior. A standard resolution (1°) climate model fails to reproduce the midlatitude, small-scale ocean forcing of heat flux: refining the ocean grid to resolve eddies (0.1°) gives a more realistic representation of ocean forcing but the variability of both SST and of heat flux is too high compared to observational analyses.
Abstract
A traditional view is that the ocean outside of the tropics responds passively to atmosphere forcing, which implies that air–sea heat fluxes are mainly driven by atmosphere variability. This paper tests this viewpoint using state-of-the-art air–sea turbulent heat flux observational analyses and a climate model run at different resolutions. It is found that in midlatitude ocean frontal zones the variability of air–sea heat fluxes is not predominantly driven by the atmosphere variations but instead is forced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations arising from intrinsic oceanic variability. Meanwhile in most of the tropics and subtropics wind is the dominant driver of heat flux variability, and atmosphere humidity is mainly important in higher latitudes. The predominance of ocean forcing of heat fluxes found in frontal regions occurs on scales of around 700 km or less. Spatially smoothing the data to larger scales results in the traditional atmosphere-driving case, while filtering to retain only small scales of 5° or less leads to ocean forcing of heat fluxes over most of the globe. All observational analyses examined (1° OAFlux; 0.25° J-OFURO3; 0.25° SeaFlux) show this general behavior. A standard resolution (1°) climate model fails to reproduce the midlatitude, small-scale ocean forcing of heat flux: refining the ocean grid to resolve eddies (0.1°) gives a more realistic representation of ocean forcing but the variability of both SST and of heat flux is too high compared to observational analyses.
ABSTRACT
Large-scale oceanic fronts, such as in western boundary currents, have been shown to play an important role in the dynamics of atmospheric storm tracks. Little is known about the influence of mesoscale oceanic eddies on the free troposphere, although their imprint on the atmospheric boundary layer is well documented. The present study investigates the response of the tropospheric storm track to the presence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with an eddying ocean. Idealized experiments are carried out in a configuration of a zonally reentrant channel representing the midlatitudes. The SST field is composed of a large-scale zonally symmetric front to which are added mesoscale eddies localized close to the front. Numerical simulations show a robust signal of a poleward shift of the storm track and of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet when oceanic eddies are taken into account. This is accompanied by more intense air–sea fluxes and convective heating above oceanic eddies. Also, a mean heating of the troposphere occurs poleward of the oceanic eddying region, within the storm track. A heat budget analysis shows that it is caused by a stronger diabatic heating within storms associated with more water advected poleward. This additional heating affects the baroclinicity of the flow, which pushes the jet and the storm track poleward.
ABSTRACT
Large-scale oceanic fronts, such as in western boundary currents, have been shown to play an important role in the dynamics of atmospheric storm tracks. Little is known about the influence of mesoscale oceanic eddies on the free troposphere, although their imprint on the atmospheric boundary layer is well documented. The present study investigates the response of the tropospheric storm track to the presence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with an eddying ocean. Idealized experiments are carried out in a configuration of a zonally reentrant channel representing the midlatitudes. The SST field is composed of a large-scale zonally symmetric front to which are added mesoscale eddies localized close to the front. Numerical simulations show a robust signal of a poleward shift of the storm track and of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet when oceanic eddies are taken into account. This is accompanied by more intense air–sea fluxes and convective heating above oceanic eddies. Also, a mean heating of the troposphere occurs poleward of the oceanic eddying region, within the storm track. A heat budget analysis shows that it is caused by a stronger diabatic heating within storms associated with more water advected poleward. This additional heating affects the baroclinicity of the flow, which pushes the jet and the storm track poleward.
Abstract
The south Indian Ocean is characterized by enhanced midlatitude storm-track activity around a prominent sea surface temperature (SST) front and unique seasonality of the surface subtropical Mascarene high. The present study investigates the climatological distribution of low-cloud fraction (LCF) and its seasonality by using satellite data, in order to elucidate the role of the storm-track activity and subtropical high. On the equatorward flank of the SST front, summertime LCF is locally maximized despite small estimated inversion strength (EIS) and high SST. This is attributable to locally augmented sensible heat flux (SHF) from the ocean under the enhanced storm-track activity, which gives rise to strong instantaneous wind speed while acting to relax the meridional gradient of surface air temperature. In the subtropics, summertime LCF is maximized off the west coast of Australia, while wintertime LCF is distributed more zonally across the basin unlike in other subtropical ocean basins. Although its zonally extended distribution is correspondent with that of LCF, EIS alone cannot explain the wintertime LCF enhancement, which precedes the EIS maximum under continuous lowering of SST and enhanced SHF in winter. Basinwide cold advection associated with the wintertime westward shift of the subtropical high contributes to the enhancement of SHF, especially around 15°–25°S, while seasonally enhanced storm-track activity augments SHF around 30°S. The analysis highlights the significance of large-scale controls, particularly through SHF, on the seasonality of the climatological LCF distribution over the south Indian Ocean, which reflect the seasonality of the Mascarene high and storm-track activity.
Abstract
The south Indian Ocean is characterized by enhanced midlatitude storm-track activity around a prominent sea surface temperature (SST) front and unique seasonality of the surface subtropical Mascarene high. The present study investigates the climatological distribution of low-cloud fraction (LCF) and its seasonality by using satellite data, in order to elucidate the role of the storm-track activity and subtropical high. On the equatorward flank of the SST front, summertime LCF is locally maximized despite small estimated inversion strength (EIS) and high SST. This is attributable to locally augmented sensible heat flux (SHF) from the ocean under the enhanced storm-track activity, which gives rise to strong instantaneous wind speed while acting to relax the meridional gradient of surface air temperature. In the subtropics, summertime LCF is maximized off the west coast of Australia, while wintertime LCF is distributed more zonally across the basin unlike in other subtropical ocean basins. Although its zonally extended distribution is correspondent with that of LCF, EIS alone cannot explain the wintertime LCF enhancement, which precedes the EIS maximum under continuous lowering of SST and enhanced SHF in winter. Basinwide cold advection associated with the wintertime westward shift of the subtropical high contributes to the enhancement of SHF, especially around 15°–25°S, while seasonally enhanced storm-track activity augments SHF around 30°S. The analysis highlights the significance of large-scale controls, particularly through SHF, on the seasonality of the climatological LCF distribution over the south Indian Ocean, which reflect the seasonality of the Mascarene high and storm-track activity.
Abstract
The active roles of sensible heat supply from the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension in the rapid development of an extratropical cyclone, which occurred in the middle of January 2013, were examined by using a regional cloud-resolving model. In this study, a control experiment and three sensitivity experiments without sensible and latent heat fluxes from the warm currents were conducted. When the cyclone intensified, sensible heat fluxes from these currents become prominent around the cold conveyor belt (CCB) in the control run. Comparisons among the four runs revealed that the sensible heat supply facilitates deepening of the cyclone’s central pressure, CCB development, and enhanced latent heating over the bent-back front. The sensible heat supply enhances convectively unstable conditions within the atmospheric boundary layer along the CCB. The increased convective instability is released by the forced ascent associated with frontogenesis around the bent-back front, eventually promoting updraft and resultant latent heating. Additionally, the sensible heating leads to an increase in the water vapor content of the saturated air related to the CCB through an increase in the saturation mixing ratio. This increased water vapor content reinforces the moisture flux convergence at the bent-back front, contributing to the activation of latent heating. Previous research has proposed a positive feedback process between the CCB and latent heating over the bent-back front in terms of moisture supply from warm currents. Considering the above two effects of the sensible heat supply, this study revises the positive feedback process.
Abstract
The active roles of sensible heat supply from the Kuroshio/Kuroshio Extension in the rapid development of an extratropical cyclone, which occurred in the middle of January 2013, were examined by using a regional cloud-resolving model. In this study, a control experiment and three sensitivity experiments without sensible and latent heat fluxes from the warm currents were conducted. When the cyclone intensified, sensible heat fluxes from these currents become prominent around the cold conveyor belt (CCB) in the control run. Comparisons among the four runs revealed that the sensible heat supply facilitates deepening of the cyclone’s central pressure, CCB development, and enhanced latent heating over the bent-back front. The sensible heat supply enhances convectively unstable conditions within the atmospheric boundary layer along the CCB. The increased convective instability is released by the forced ascent associated with frontogenesis around the bent-back front, eventually promoting updraft and resultant latent heating. Additionally, the sensible heating leads to an increase in the water vapor content of the saturated air related to the CCB through an increase in the saturation mixing ratio. This increased water vapor content reinforces the moisture flux convergence at the bent-back front, contributing to the activation of latent heating. Previous research has proposed a positive feedback process between the CCB and latent heating over the bent-back front in terms of moisture supply from warm currents. Considering the above two effects of the sensible heat supply, this study revises the positive feedback process.
Abstract
Mechanisms for the maintenance of a large-scale wintertime atmospheric response to warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with decadal-scale poleward displacement of the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) are investigated through the following two ensemble experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM): one with climatological-mean SST and the other with positive SST anomalies along the SAFZ prescribed on top of the climatological-mean SST. As actually observed, the simulated January ensemble response over the North Pacific is anticyclonic throughout the depth of the troposphere, although its amplitude is smaller. This response is maintained through energy conversion from the ensemble climatological-mean circulation realized under the climatological SST as well as feedback from anomalous transient eddy activity, suggesting that the response may have characteristics as a preferred mode of variability (or “dynamical mode”). Conversions of both available potential energy and kinetic energy from the climatological-mean state are important for the observed anomaly, while the latter is less pronounced for the model response. Net transient feedback forcing is also important for both the observed anomaly and simulated response. These results imply that a moderate-resolution (~1°) AGCM may be able to simulate a basin-scale atmospheric response to the SAFZ SST anomaly through synoptic- and basin-scale dynamical processes. Weaker PNA-like internal variability in the model may lead to the weaker response, suggesting that misrepresentation of intrinsic atmospheric variability can affect the model response to the SST anomaly.
Abstract
Mechanisms for the maintenance of a large-scale wintertime atmospheric response to warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with decadal-scale poleward displacement of the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) are investigated through the following two ensemble experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM): one with climatological-mean SST and the other with positive SST anomalies along the SAFZ prescribed on top of the climatological-mean SST. As actually observed, the simulated January ensemble response over the North Pacific is anticyclonic throughout the depth of the troposphere, although its amplitude is smaller. This response is maintained through energy conversion from the ensemble climatological-mean circulation realized under the climatological SST as well as feedback from anomalous transient eddy activity, suggesting that the response may have characteristics as a preferred mode of variability (or “dynamical mode”). Conversions of both available potential energy and kinetic energy from the climatological-mean state are important for the observed anomaly, while the latter is less pronounced for the model response. Net transient feedback forcing is also important for both the observed anomaly and simulated response. These results imply that a moderate-resolution (~1°) AGCM may be able to simulate a basin-scale atmospheric response to the SAFZ SST anomaly through synoptic- and basin-scale dynamical processes. Weaker PNA-like internal variability in the model may lead to the weaker response, suggesting that misrepresentation of intrinsic atmospheric variability can affect the model response to the SST anomaly.
Abstract
The North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream (GS) path is examined using a large ensemble of high-resolution hemispheric-scale Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. The model is forced with a broad range of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies derived from a lag regression on a GS index. The primary result of the model experiments, supported in part by an independent analysis of a reanalysis dataset, is that the large-scale quasi-steady North Atlantic circulation response is remarkably nonlinear about the sign and amplitude of the SST anomaly chosen over a wide range of GS shift scenarios. The nonlinear response prevails over the weak linear response and resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the leading intrinsic mode of variability in the model and the observations. Further analysis of the associated dynamics reveals that the nonlinear responses are accompanied by the shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, which is reinforced, with nearly equal importance, by the high-frequency transient eddy feedback and the low-frequency wave-breaking events. Additional sensitivity simulations confirm that the nonlinearity of the circulation response is a robust feature found over the broad parameter space encompassing not only the varied SST but also the absence/presence of tropical influence, the varying lateral boundary conditions, and the initialization scheme. The result highlights the fundamental importance of the intrinsically nonlinear transient eddy dynamics and the eddy–mean flow interactions in generating the nonlinear downstream response to the meridional shifts in the Gulf Stream.
Abstract
The North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream (GS) path is examined using a large ensemble of high-resolution hemispheric-scale Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. The model is forced with a broad range of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies derived from a lag regression on a GS index. The primary result of the model experiments, supported in part by an independent analysis of a reanalysis dataset, is that the large-scale quasi-steady North Atlantic circulation response is remarkably nonlinear about the sign and amplitude of the SST anomaly chosen over a wide range of GS shift scenarios. The nonlinear response prevails over the weak linear response and resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the leading intrinsic mode of variability in the model and the observations. Further analysis of the associated dynamics reveals that the nonlinear responses are accompanied by the shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, which is reinforced, with nearly equal importance, by the high-frequency transient eddy feedback and the low-frequency wave-breaking events. Additional sensitivity simulations confirm that the nonlinearity of the circulation response is a robust feature found over the broad parameter space encompassing not only the varied SST but also the absence/presence of tropical influence, the varying lateral boundary conditions, and the initialization scheme. The result highlights the fundamental importance of the intrinsically nonlinear transient eddy dynamics and the eddy–mean flow interactions in generating the nonlinear downstream response to the meridional shifts in the Gulf Stream.
Abstract
During the southwest monsoons, the Arabian Sea (AS) develops highly energetic mesoscale variability associated with the Somali Current (SC), Great Whirl (GW), and cold filaments (CF). The resultant high-amplitude anomalies and gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface currents modify the wind stress, triggering the so-called mesoscale coupled feedbacks. This study uses a high-resolution regional coupled model with a novel coupling procedure that separates spatial scales of the air–sea coupling to show that SST and surface currents are coupled to the atmosphere at distinct spatial scales, exerting distinct dynamic influences. The effect of mesoscale SST–wind interaction is manifested most strongly in wind work and Ekman pumping over the GW, primarily affecting the position of GW and the separation latitude of the SC. If this effect is suppressed, enhanced wind work and a weakened Ekman pumping dipole cause the GW to extend northeastward, delaying the SC separation by 1°. Current–wind interaction, in contrast, is related to the amount of wind energy input. When it is suppressed, especially as a result of background-scale currents, depth-integrated kinetic energy, both the mean and eddy, is significantly enhanced. Ekman pumping velocity over the GW is overly negative because of a lack of vorticity that offsets the wind stress curl, further invigorating the GW. Moreover, significant changes in time-mean SST and evaporation are generated in response to the current–wind interaction, accompanied by a noticeable southward shift in the Findlater Jet. The significant increase in moisture transport in the central AS implies that air–sea interaction mediated by the surface current is a potentially important process for simulation and prediction of the monsoon rainfall.
Abstract
During the southwest monsoons, the Arabian Sea (AS) develops highly energetic mesoscale variability associated with the Somali Current (SC), Great Whirl (GW), and cold filaments (CF). The resultant high-amplitude anomalies and gradients of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface currents modify the wind stress, triggering the so-called mesoscale coupled feedbacks. This study uses a high-resolution regional coupled model with a novel coupling procedure that separates spatial scales of the air–sea coupling to show that SST and surface currents are coupled to the atmosphere at distinct spatial scales, exerting distinct dynamic influences. The effect of mesoscale SST–wind interaction is manifested most strongly in wind work and Ekman pumping over the GW, primarily affecting the position of GW and the separation latitude of the SC. If this effect is suppressed, enhanced wind work and a weakened Ekman pumping dipole cause the GW to extend northeastward, delaying the SC separation by 1°. Current–wind interaction, in contrast, is related to the amount of wind energy input. When it is suppressed, especially as a result of background-scale currents, depth-integrated kinetic energy, both the mean and eddy, is significantly enhanced. Ekman pumping velocity over the GW is overly negative because of a lack of vorticity that offsets the wind stress curl, further invigorating the GW. Moreover, significant changes in time-mean SST and evaporation are generated in response to the current–wind interaction, accompanied by a noticeable southward shift in the Findlater Jet. The significant increase in moisture transport in the central AS implies that air–sea interaction mediated by the surface current is a potentially important process for simulation and prediction of the monsoon rainfall.
Abstract
Generation and propagation processes of upper-ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Pacific are investigated using oceanic subsurface observations and an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model hindcast simulation. OHC anomalies are decomposed into physically distinct dynamical components (OHC ρ ) due to temperature anomalies that are associated with density anomalies and spiciness components (OHC χ ) due to temperature anomalies that are density compensating with salinity. Analysis of the observational and model data consistently shows that both dynamical and spiciness components contribute to interannual–decadal OHC variability, with the former (latter) component dominating in the subtropical (subpolar) North Pacific. OHC ρ variability represents heaving of thermocline, propagates westward, and intensifies along the Kuroshio Extension, consistent with jet-trapped Rossby waves, while OHC χ variability propagates eastward along the subarctic frontal zone, suggesting advection by mean eastward currents. OHC χ variability tightly corresponds in space to horizontal mean spiciness gradients. Meanwhile, area-averaged OHC χ anomalies in the western subarctic frontal zone closely correspond in time to meridional shifts of the subarctic frontal zone. Regression coefficient of the OHC χ time series on the frontal displacement anomalies quantitatively agree with the area-averaged mean spiciness gradient in the region, and suggest that OHC χ is generated via frontal variability in the subarctic frontal zone.
Abstract
Generation and propagation processes of upper-ocean heat content (OHC) in the North Pacific are investigated using oceanic subsurface observations and an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model hindcast simulation. OHC anomalies are decomposed into physically distinct dynamical components (OHC ρ ) due to temperature anomalies that are associated with density anomalies and spiciness components (OHC χ ) due to temperature anomalies that are density compensating with salinity. Analysis of the observational and model data consistently shows that both dynamical and spiciness components contribute to interannual–decadal OHC variability, with the former (latter) component dominating in the subtropical (subpolar) North Pacific. OHC ρ variability represents heaving of thermocline, propagates westward, and intensifies along the Kuroshio Extension, consistent with jet-trapped Rossby waves, while OHC χ variability propagates eastward along the subarctic frontal zone, suggesting advection by mean eastward currents. OHC χ variability tightly corresponds in space to horizontal mean spiciness gradients. Meanwhile, area-averaged OHC χ anomalies in the western subarctic frontal zone closely correspond in time to meridional shifts of the subarctic frontal zone. Regression coefficient of the OHC χ time series on the frontal displacement anomalies quantitatively agree with the area-averaged mean spiciness gradient in the region, and suggest that OHC χ is generated via frontal variability in the subarctic frontal zone.
Abstract
The distribution of surface divergence in the northwest Atlantic is investigated using 10 years of satellite wind observations from QuikSCAT and a 1-yr simulation from the COAMPS atmospheric model. A band of time-mean surface convergence overlies the Gulf Stream [called here the Gulf Stream convergence zone (GSCZ)] and has been attributed previously to a local boundary layer response to Gulf Stream SST gradients. However, this analysis shows that the GSCZ results mainly from the aggregate impacts of strong convergence anomalies associated with storms propagating along the storm track, which approximately overlies the Gulf Stream. Storm surface convergence anomalies are one to two orders of magnitude greater than the time-mean convergence and produce a highly asymmetric divergence distribution skewed toward convergent winds. The sensitivity of the sign and magnitude of the time-mean divergence to extreme weather events is demonstrated through analysis using an extreme-value filter, conditional sampling based on rain occurrence, and comparison to its median and mode. Vertical velocity and surface pressure are likewise affected by strong storms, which are characterized by upward velocity and low surface pressure. Storms are thus an important process in shaping the mean state of the atmosphere in the northwest Atlantic. These results are difficult to reconcile with the prevailing view that SST “anchors” surface convergence, upward vertical velocity, and increased rain over the Gulf Stream through a local boundary layer adjustment mechanism.
Abstract
The distribution of surface divergence in the northwest Atlantic is investigated using 10 years of satellite wind observations from QuikSCAT and a 1-yr simulation from the COAMPS atmospheric model. A band of time-mean surface convergence overlies the Gulf Stream [called here the Gulf Stream convergence zone (GSCZ)] and has been attributed previously to a local boundary layer response to Gulf Stream SST gradients. However, this analysis shows that the GSCZ results mainly from the aggregate impacts of strong convergence anomalies associated with storms propagating along the storm track, which approximately overlies the Gulf Stream. Storm surface convergence anomalies are one to two orders of magnitude greater than the time-mean convergence and produce a highly asymmetric divergence distribution skewed toward convergent winds. The sensitivity of the sign and magnitude of the time-mean divergence to extreme weather events is demonstrated through analysis using an extreme-value filter, conditional sampling based on rain occurrence, and comparison to its median and mode. Vertical velocity and surface pressure are likewise affected by strong storms, which are characterized by upward velocity and low surface pressure. Storms are thus an important process in shaping the mean state of the atmosphere in the northwest Atlantic. These results are difficult to reconcile with the prevailing view that SST “anchors” surface convergence, upward vertical velocity, and increased rain over the Gulf Stream through a local boundary layer adjustment mechanism.
Abstract
To improve the understanding of storm tracks and western boundary current (WBC) interactions, surface storm tracks in 12 CMIP5 models are examined against ERA-Interim. All models capture an equatorward displacement toward the WBCs in the locations of the surface storm tracks’ maxima relative to those at 850 hPa. An estimated storm-track metric is developed to analyze the location of the surface storm track. It shows that the equatorward shift is influenced by both the lower-tropospheric instability and the baroclinicity. Basin-scale spatial correlations between models and ERA-Interim for the storm tracks, near-surface stability, SST gradient, and baroclinicity are calculated to test the ability of the GCMs’ match reanalysis. An intermodel comparison of the spatial correlations suggests that differences (relative to ERA-Interim) in the position of the storm track aloft have the strongest influence on differences in the surface storm-track position. However, in the North Atlantic, biases in the surface storm track north of the Gulf Stream are related to biases in the SST. An analysis of the strength of the storm tracks shows that most models generate a weaker storm track at the surface than 850 hPa, consistent with observations, although some outliers are found. A linear relationship exists among the models between storm-track amplitudes at 500 and 850 hPa, but not between 850 hPa and the surface. In total, the work reveals a dual role in forcing the surface storm track from aloft and from the ocean surface in CMIP5 models, with the atmosphere having the larger relative influence.
Abstract
To improve the understanding of storm tracks and western boundary current (WBC) interactions, surface storm tracks in 12 CMIP5 models are examined against ERA-Interim. All models capture an equatorward displacement toward the WBCs in the locations of the surface storm tracks’ maxima relative to those at 850 hPa. An estimated storm-track metric is developed to analyze the location of the surface storm track. It shows that the equatorward shift is influenced by both the lower-tropospheric instability and the baroclinicity. Basin-scale spatial correlations between models and ERA-Interim for the storm tracks, near-surface stability, SST gradient, and baroclinicity are calculated to test the ability of the GCMs’ match reanalysis. An intermodel comparison of the spatial correlations suggests that differences (relative to ERA-Interim) in the position of the storm track aloft have the strongest influence on differences in the surface storm-track position. However, in the North Atlantic, biases in the surface storm track north of the Gulf Stream are related to biases in the SST. An analysis of the strength of the storm tracks shows that most models generate a weaker storm track at the surface than 850 hPa, consistent with observations, although some outliers are found. A linear relationship exists among the models between storm-track amplitudes at 500 and 850 hPa, but not between 850 hPa and the surface. In total, the work reveals a dual role in forcing the surface storm track from aloft and from the ocean surface in CMIP5 models, with the atmosphere having the larger relative influence.
