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Julia Linder and Victoria Campbell-Arvai

Abstract

In the midwestern United States, intensifying impacts from climate change necessitate adaptation by the agricultural sector. Tree fruit agriculture is uniquely vulnerable to climate change due to the long-lived nature of perennial systems, yet very few studies have addressed how fruit growers perceive climate change and are responding to climate risks. For this study, 16 semistructured interviews were conducted with Michigan tree fruit growers to understand how their climate change beliefs, beliefs about adaptive actions, and climate-related risk perceptions influence adaptation behaviors. While there was a great deal of uncertainty about the anthropogenic nature of climate change, growers generally agreed that unprecedented changes in climate and weather patterns were occurring. Because of a perception of little control over future climate impacts, most growers reactively adapted to climate risks that negatively impacted their orchards by implementing measures such as frost protection, irrigation, pesticides, and crop insurance. This study highlighted that while proactive adaptations such as crop diversification, planting new varieties, and improving soil health will be necessary to increase farm resilience in the future, growers were unable to justify making these changes due to their uncertainty about future climate changes. The findings from this study highlight the need for future outreach efforts by university extension agents, private agricultural advisors, and federal and state agency advisors to provide educational information on the long-term impacts of climate change in order to help growers increase the resilience of their farm in the face of future climate impacts.

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Abdulrahman Khamaj, Amin G. Alhashim, Vincent T. Ybarra, and Azham Hussain

Abstract

Communicating weather forecasts from the public perspective is essential for meeting people’s needs and enhancing their overall experiences. Because of the lack of cited work on the public’s behavior and perception of weather data and delivery sources in Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia (KSA), this study employs a cross-sectional questionnaire to fill the gap and apply the protective action decision model to non-Western individuals. The questionnaire examined respondents’ opinions about 1) the importance of weather forecast accessibility, 2) crucial weather features, and 3) available features on existing smartphone weather applications (apps) in KSA. The results showed that nearly all participants reported that their decisions of daily lives and activities were highly dependent on weather forecasts. Most participants thought weather forecast features are necessary. Although the most commonly used source for weather forecasts in KSA was smartphone apps, many participants responded that these apps were lacking specific weather functionalities (e.g., giving weather alerts to their exact location). Regression analyses found that KSA individuals who do not believe that weather forecasts are important are predicted by 1) not wanting any new features added to weather applications and 2) thinking that weather forecasts do not impact lives or property. This study’s findings can guide governmental and private weather agencies in KSA and other Middle Eastern or developing countries to better understand how to meet and communicate people’s weather needs.

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David Huntsman, Hao-Che Wu, and Alex Greer

Abstract

Scholars have produced several theories and models to explain why individuals adjust to hazards. While findings from these studies are informative, studies have not considered how threat and coping appraisals may have differential effects on varying types of hazard adjustments, or how these findings may generalize to vulnerable populations. This study expands on the protection motivation theory to explore the factors that shape hazard adjustment intentions among college students, a population traditionally defined as vulnerable, in response to tornado risk. An online survey was administered to college students (n = 377) at Oklahoma State University, situated in a region that experiences considerable tornado risk. While the correlations between threat appraisal and tornado hazard adjustment intentions are smaller than the correlations between coping appraisal and tornado hazard adjustment intentions, findings suggest that threat appraisals become more important for influencing college students’ adjustment intentions when adjustment activities are complex (e.g., tornado shelter, home insurance) rather than basic (e.g., flashlight, first-aid kit). This suggests that while both threat appraisals and coping appraisals are important for complex hazard adjustment intentions, basic hazard adjustment intentions are almost exclusively determined by coping appraisals. These findings have several practical implications for emergency management and provide new avenues for future hazard adjustment studies.

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Siqin Wang, Yan Liu, and Jonathan Corcoran

Abstract

Both built environment and natural environment have physiological and psychological effect on human behaviour, which potentially affect their sensitivity and tolerance to surrounding noise, and leads to annoyance, nuisance, distress or overt actions and aggressive behaviours such as noise complaints to people living neighborly. This study aims to explore the extent weather conditions affect the prevalence of noise complaints between neighbours mediated through neighbourhood built environment. Using Brisbane, Australia as a study case, we draw on the large-scale administrative dataset in 2016 to explore the monthly and seasonal variations of noise complaints between neighbours, and employ a step-wise multiple regression to analyse the extent weather factors affect noise complaints. Our findings show that neighbours largely complain about noise made by animals and such complaints most frequently appear in March to May, the autumn season in the South Hemisphere. Built environment plays a primary role on noise complaints and culturally diverse suburbs with less green space tend to have a higher likelihood of neighbour complaints in spring and summer; such a likelihood is further increased by a higher level of wind, humidity, and temperature in a yearly frame. However, the effect of weather on animal and non-animal related noise complaints in different seasons is less consistent. Our findings, to a certain degree, reveal that weather conditions may serve as a psychological moderator to change people’s tolerance and sensitivity on noise, alter their routine activities and exposure to noise sources, and further affect the likelihood of imposing noise complaints between neighbours.

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Jen Henderson, Lisa Dilling, Rebecca Morss, Olga Wilhelmi, and Ursula Rick

Abstract

Unintended consequences from decisions made in one part of a social-ecological system (SES) in response to climate hazards can magnify vulnerabilities for others in the same system. Yet anticipating or identifying these cascades and spillovers in real time is difficult. Social learning is an important component of adaptation that has the ability to facilitate adaptive capacity by mobilizing multiple actors around a common resource to manage collectively in ways that build local knowledge, reflective practices, and a broader understanding of contexts for decisions. While the foundations of social learning in resource management have been theorized in the literature, empirical examples of unintended consequences that trigger social learning are few. This article analyzes two cases of drought decisions made along the Arkansas River Basin in Colorado; in each, social learning occurred after actors experienced unanticipated impacts from others’ decisions. Methods include interviews with actors, both individual and institutional representatives of different sectors (e.g. recreation, agriculture, etc.), and a review of relevant historical and policy documents. The study identifies four features of social learning that aided actors’ responses to unanticipated consequences: first, governance structures that facilitated more holistic river management; second, relationship boundaries that expanded beyond small scale decisions to capture interactions and emergent problems; third, knowledge of others’ previous experience, whether direct or indirect; and fourth, creation of spaces for safer experimentation with adaptation changes. Results identify empirical examples of actors who successfully learned to adapt together to unexpected consequences and thus may provide insight for others collectively managing drought extremes.

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Daniel Leppert, Tobias Dalhaus, and Carl-Johan Lagerkvist

Abstract

Extreme heat events cause periodic damage to crop yields and may pose a threat to the income of farmers. Weather index insurance provides payouts to farmers in the case of measurable weather extremes to keep production going. However, its viability depends crucially on the accuracy of local weather indices to predict yield damages from adverse weather conditions. So far, extreme heat indices are poorly represented in weather index insurance. In this study, we construct indices of extreme heat using observations at the nearest weather station and estimates for each county using three interpolation techniques: inverse-distance weighting, ordinary kriging, and regression kriging. Applying these indices to insurance against heat damage to corn in Illinois and Iowa, we show that heat index insurance reduces relative risk premiums by 27%–29% and that interpolated indices outperform the nearest-neighbor index by around 2%–3% in terms of relative risk reduction. Further, we find that the advantage of interpolation over a nearest-neighbor index in terms of relative risk reduction increases as the sample of weather stations is reduced. These findings suggest that heat index insurance can work even when weather data are spatially sparse, which delivers important implications for insurance practice and policy makers. Further, our public code repository provides a rich toolbox of methods to be used for other perils, crops, and regions. Our results are therefore not only replicable but also constitute a cornerstone for projects to come.

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Meaghan L. Guckian, Ezra M. Markowitz, Clay S. Tucker, Elsita Kiekebusch, Toni Klemm, Lindsey Middleton, Adrienne Wootten, and Michelle D. Staudinger

Abstract

Online science communities can serve as powerful platforms for advancing scientific knowledge, capacity, and outreach by increasing collaboration and information sharing among geographically distant peers, practitioners, and the public. Here, we examine the value and role of the Early Career Climate Forum (ECCF), a climate-focused online science community that is based in the United States and is dedicated to training and providing support to the next generation of climate scientists. In a survey of community users and contributors, we find that the ECCF played a unique role in providing users access to career resources as well as climate-related research and insights. Respondents also indicated that the ECCF provides them with a strong sense of community and a sense of hope for the future of climate science research. These findings highlight the importance of online science communities in shaping and supporting the next generation of scientists and practitioners working at the science–management interface on climate change issues.

Open access
Stephen M. Strader, Alex M. Haberlie, and Alexandra G. Loitz

Abstract

This study investigates the interrelationships between National Weather Service (NWS) county warning area (CWA) tornado risk, exposure, and societal vulnerability. CWA climatological tornado risk is determined using historical tornado event data, and exposure and vulnerability are assessed by employing present-day population, housing, socioeconomic, and demographic metrics. In addition, tornado watches, warnings, warning lead times, false alarm warnings, and unwarned tornado reports are examined in relation to CWA risk, exposure, and vulnerability. Results indicate that southeastern U.S. CWAs are more susceptible to tornado impacts because of their greater tornado frequencies and larger damage footprints intersecting more vulnerable populations (e.g., poverty and manufactured homes). Midwest CWAs experience fewer tornadoes relative to Southeast and southern plains CWAs but encompass faster tornado translational speeds and greater population densities where higher concentrations of vulnerable individuals often reside. Northern plains CWAs contain longer-tracked tornadoes on average and larger percentages of vulnerable elderly and rural persons. Southern plains CWAs experience the highest tornado frequencies in general and contain larger percentages of minority Latinx populations. Many of the most socially vulnerable CWAs have shorter warning lead times and greater percentages of false alarm warnings and unwarned tornadoes. Study findings provide NWS forecasters with an improved understanding of the relationships between tornado risk, exposure, vulnerability, and warning outcomes within their respective CWAs. Findings may also assist NWS Weather Forecast Offices and the Warning Decision Training Division with developing training materials aimed at increasing NWS forecaster knowledge of how tornado risk, exposure, and vulnerability factors influence local tornado disaster potential.

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Sally Potter, Sara Harrison, and Peter Kreft

Abstract

Warnings about impending hazards help to minimize the impacts and reduce the risk of the hazard through encouraging an appropriate and timely behavioral response. Many hydrometeorological agencies are moving toward impact-based forecast and warning (IBFW) systems, as encouraged by the World Meteorological Organization. Yet little research has been conducted on such systems from the perspectives of agencies who are or would be involved in their implementation. We investigated the challenges and benefits of IBFW systems as perceived by participants from agencies internationally and within New Zealand. Interviews and workshops were held with meteorologists and weather forecasters, flood forecasters and hydrologists, and emergency managers. We found that the benefits of implementing IBFW systems included a perceived increase in the understanding of the potential impacts by the public, added awareness of antecedent conditions by forecasters, a possible reduction in “false alarms,” and increased interagency communication. Challenges identified by the participants included whether the system should be designed for individuals or society, a lack of impact data, verification of warnings based on impacts, a conflict with roles and responsibilities, the potential for conflicting messages, and the increased burden on agencies providing information to forecasters with a perception of little benefit in return. We argue that IBFWs could be designed for individual members of the public, with an increased focus on understanding vulnerability and capacities, and that more impact data need to be collected and stored to inform future warnings. Increased interagency coordination would assist with rapid decision-making and the success of IBFWs.

Open access
Vikram S. Negi, Shinny Thakur, Rupesh Dhyani, Indra D. Bhatt, and Ranbeer S. Rawal

Abstract

Mountains are important global sites for monitoring biological and socioecological responses to climate change, and the Himalaya has some of the world’s most rapid and visible signs of climate change. The increased frequency and severity of climate anomalies in the region are expected to significantly affect livelihoods of indigenous communities in the region. This study documents the perceptions of indigenous communities of climate change in the western Himalaya of India. The study highlights the power of knowledge and understanding available to indigenous people as they observe and respond to climate change impacts. We conducted a field-based study in 14 villages that represent diverse socioecological features along an altitudinal range of 1000–3800 m MSL in the western Himalaya. Among the sampled population, most of the respondents (>95%) agreed that climate is changing. However, people residing at low- and high-altitude villages differ significantly in their perception, with more people at high altitudes believing in an overall warming trend. Instrumental temperature and rainfall from nearby meteorological stations also supported the perception of local inhabitants. The climate change perceptions in the region were largely determined by sociodemographic variables such as age, gender, and income as well as altitude. A logistic regression, which exhibited significant association of sociodemographic characteristics with climate change perceptions, further supported these findings. The study concluded that the climate change observations of local communities can be usefully utilized to develop adaptation strategies and mitigation planning in the Himalayan region.

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