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Ruhollah Oji, Mehdi Hesam, and Victoria W. Keener

Abstract

Increased cooperation of an interdisciplinary group of climate change professionals as a social network can play a crucial role in adaptation to climate change. To investigate this relationship at the country scale, this study uses a case study in Iran to 1) measure the cooperative relationship among climate change professionals using the network analysis approach and 2) analyze the potential of the network in promoting adaptation measures based on sustainable development. Social network analysis, which is both a quantitative and qualitative method of grounded theory, was used to analyze the data. Data collection was performed using two questionnaires, including network analysis and a survey, as well as a number of semistructured interviews with the climate change professionals. The data were collected from climate change professionals, including a sample of 55 individuals who were surveyed as a cross section of representative participants from a variety of sectors and organizations. The network relationship results have been analyzed using different tests at three levels (micro, macro, and the interactions between the two). The results have shown that the connectedness of the network is 23.7%, with 42.4% mutual links. The transitivity rate in the network is 51.39%, which determines the possibility of each professional communicating with a third party. According to the normalized degree index, 34.29% of the cases are in contact with other researchers in the network and 53.15% received a connection from others. Grounded theory analysis showed that five core categories including social capital, managerial factors, research, relations, and coordination affected the quality and utility of Iranian climate change professionals’ network.

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Jacob R. Reed, Susan A. Jasko, and Jason C. Senkbeil

Abstract

Weather icons are some of the most frequently used visual tools that meteorologists employ to communicate weather information. Previous research has shown a tendency for the public to make inferences about weather forecast information on the basis of the icon shown. For example, people may infer a higher likelihood of precipitation, assume a higher intensity of precipitation, or determine the duration of expected precipitation if the weather icon appears to show heavy rain. It is unknown to what extent these inferences align with what the meteorologist who chose the icon intended to convey. However, previous studies have used simulated weather icons rather than ones currently in use. The goal of our study was to explore how members of the public interpret actual weather icons they see on television or in mobile applications. An online survey distributed by broadcast meteorologists through social media was used to collect 6253 responses between August and September of 2020. Eleven weather icons currently used by broadcast meteorologists were included in the study. We also tested eight common weather phrases and asked people whether they thought the icons were good illustrators of those phrases. In addition, people were asked to assign a probability of precipitation to the icons. The findings of our study offer new and unique insights that will improve the communication of weather information by giving meteorologists information about how their audiences interpret weather icons.

Significance Statement

Millions of people are shown weather icons during daily weather broadcasts. This study used two approaches to determine whether these icons are effective elements of weather messaging. For the first approach, we showed people an icon alongside a common weather phrase and had them tell us whether the icon was a good illustrator of the weather phrase. The second approach involved showing people an icon and having them assign a probability of precipitation to it. Across eight weather phrases, none of the icons were thought to be good illustrators, but bad illustrators were clear. These results can be used to improve how icons are used as tools to communicate weather forecasts.

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Chen Zhang, Hua Liao, Fang-Zhi Wang, and Ru Li

Abstract

Human behaviors are believed to be sensitive to environmental conditions. However, little is known about the role of temperature in individual daily behaviors. We examine the links between temperature and food intake using nearly one million purchasing records from China. The results show that a 1°C increase in temperature would cause a 0.11% decrease in food intake, which amounts to USD 4.2 million of daily food expenditures nationwide. Moreover, females appear to be more sensitive to the temperature in their food intake than males. In addition, we observe a U-shaped relationship between the temperature and the willingness to order a takeout online, and this observation is robust under multiple alternative estimations. Our results indicate that a higher temperature would reduce energy demand for body thermoregulation, resulting in less food intake. Both extreme high and low temperatures can cause disutility. Therefore, the consumers who still want to satisfy their needs for food intake feel compelled to alter their willingness to pay under the extreme temperature events. The quantitative analysis can provide helpful references for modeling the climate–consumer relationship in integrated assessment models. Thus, it is an interesting avenue for future research to bridge the climate and consumers to identify welfare loss and inequality due to climate change.

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Katie A. Wilson, Burkely T. Gallo, Patrick Skinner, Adam Clark, Pamela Heinselman, and Jessica J. Choate

Abstract

Convection-allowing model ensemble guidance, such as that provided by the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS), is designed to provide predictions of individual thunderstorm hazards within the next 0–6 h. The WoFS web viewer provides a large suite of storm and environmental attribute products, but the applicability of these products to the National Weather Service forecast process has not been objectively documented. Therefore, this study describes an experimental forecasting task designed to investigate what WoFS products forecasters accessed and how they accessed them for a total of 26 cases (comprising 13 weather events, each worked by two forecasters). Analysis of web access log data revealed that, in all 26 cases, product accesses were dominated in the reflectivity, rotation, hail, and surface wind categories. However, the number of different product types viewed and the number of transitions between products varied in each case. Therefore, the Levenshtein (edit distance) method was used to compute similarity scores across all 26 cases, which helped to identify what it meant for relatively similar versus dissimilar navigation of WoFS products. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient R results found that forecasters working the same weather event had higher similarity scores for events that produced more tornado reports and for events in which forecasters had higher performance scores. The findings from this study will influence subsequent efforts for further improving WoFS products and developing an efficient and effective user interface for operational applications.

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Zeke Baker

Abstract

A major implication of climate change is the declining capacity for communities to anticipate future conditions and scenarios. In the Bering Sea region of western Alaska, this situation is acute and holds manifold consequences, particularly for the region’s primarily Indigenous residents. Based upon interviews and fieldwork in two Bering Sea communities and among regional weather forecasters, this paper explores the intertwined temporalities of weather, climate, and social life. I demonstrate that anticipatory culture, which otherwise structures anticipatory practices with regard to climate, local weather, and social life, is beset by temporal dissonance across three time scales. First, dramatic climatic and ecosystem shifts reshape how Indigenous Peoples envision themselves as culturally inhabiting a long-range history and future. Second, changes in weather patterns, ecological cycles, and sea ice dynamics upset evaluations of seasonality, leading to a pervasive sense of unpredictability. Third, on the everyday time scale, social and technological change complicates mariners’ evaluations of risk and economic (commercial and subsistence) decision-making. I conclude by connecting these three socioenvironmental temporalities to the temporal frames that primarily characterize weather and climate services, with an emphasis on the U.S. National Weather Service. The paper discusses how such services may further orient toward engaging socially embedded practices of anticipation in addition to formal prediction. Such an orientation can help to shape an anticipatory culture that more closely aligns meteorological and social patterns.

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Nikolai Bobylev, Sebastien Gadal, Valery Konyshev, Maria Lagutina, and Alexander Sergunin

Abstract

The Russian Arctic is a highly urbanized region, with most towns built in the Soviet era to facilitate extraction industries as well as to provide and maintain military facilities. Global environmental and developmental changes, as well as national political decisions, open up Russia’s Arctic to massive investment and industrial and socioeconomic development. How do Russian Arctic cities, towns, and municipalities reflect on new opportunities in terms of designing their climate change adaptation strategies at a local level? Starting with theoretical discourse on urban climate change adaptation strategy, this research examines state-of-the-art challenges and trends in planning for adaptation measures in Russia’s Arctic industrial centers. Special attention is given to a comparative analysis of the cities’ climate change adaptation strategies. The role of civil society institutions and business community in the adaptation strategy planning process is explored. Moreover, conflict-sensitive approaches to ensure participatory processes for designing and implementing adaptation measures are discussed. The field component of research is based on the cities of Apatity, Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Salekhard, and Severodvinsk and the towns of Monchegorsk, Nickel, and Vorkuta. The study concludes that, despite significant challenges identified, the total “balance sheet” of the Arctic cities’ efforts to enhance their adaptive capacities is very positive: Russian northern urban settlements do their best in addressing existing challenges via planning for sustainability approach. However, there is more to do, and municipalities should learn from one another’s experiences, as the different approaches can be helpful in developing adequate climate change adaptation strategies at the local level.

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Scott Knowles and Mark Skidmore

Abstract

The North Dakota Cloud Modification Project was established in 1951 to reduce severe hail damage and increase precipitation in specific counties in North Dakota. Every year, participating counties receive cloud-seeding treatment during the months of June, July, and August. Although some atmospheric studies have examined the efficacy of the treatment, few have used statistical procedures to determine how the program affected crop yields and crop losses. We use the panel nature of historical cloud-seeding participation and crop data to estimate a two-way fixed-effects regression with county-specific time trends to examine the effect of cloud seeding on wheat and barley yields. In addition, we use federal crop insurance data to estimate the effect of cloud seeding on losses for those same crops. Our evaluation indicates that the cloud-seeding program had significant positive effects on crop yields and improved loss ratios.

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Yu-Wen Su

Abstract

The continuously increasing temperatures worldwide indicate that the frequently extreme heat in summer will become a new normal. The extreme high temperature (EHT) could be dangerous to human health, especially for outdoor workers or commuters, and could increase the risk of grid collapse. Thus, the possibility of a day off due to EHT has started to be discussed in Taiwan, based on the experience of typhoon day off, but discussions have not yet concluded. In this study, the effects of the EHT day off on electricity consumption in the industrial, service, and residential sectors were investigated through two determinants: First, high temperature would increase the electricity consumption in space cooling. Second, a day off would change people’s behavior of electricity consumption from workday to nonworkday modes. Combining the effects of cooling hours and nonworkdays, the net influence of the EHT day off on electricity consumption can be evaluated. Estimated results indicated that an EHT day off can reduce aggregate electricity consumption by between 0.41% and 1.08%. The reduction of electricity consumption due to the off day offsets the increase driven by high temperatures. Thus, an EHT day off will mitigate the pressure on the power grid and benefit electricity conservation.

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Aparna Bamzai-Dodson, Amanda E. Cravens, Alisa A. Wade, and Renee A. McPherson

Abstract

Natural and cultural resource managers are increasingly working with the scientific community to create information on how best to adapt to the current and projected impacts of climate change. Engaging with these managers is a strategy that researchers can use to ensure that scientific outputs and findings are actionable (or useful and usable). In this article, the authors adapt Davidson’s wheel of participation to characterize and describe common stakeholder engagement strategies across the spectrum of inform, consult, participate, and empower. This adapted framework provides researchers with a standardized vocabulary for describing their engagement approach, guidance on how to select an approach, methods for implementing engagement, and potential barriers to overcome. While there is often no one “best” approach to engaging with stakeholders, researchers can use the objectives of their project and the decision context in which their stakeholders operate to guide their selection. Researchers can also revisit this framework over time as their project objectives shift and their stakeholder relationships evolve.

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Mohd Zeeshan, Huanyuan Zhang, Liqing Sha, Gnanamoorthy Palingamoorthy, Zayar Phyo, Ziwei Chen, Goldin Quadros, and P. A. Azeez

Abstract

Substantial temperature rise is reported in the Himalayas, and the vulnerability of the region to climate change is well recognized. An apt adaptation strategy to cope with climate change calls for informed people’s participation, which was rarely investigated in the western Himalayas. Having been better informed, people in developed areas adopt better actions against climate change that are well guided by their perception. In contrast, Rajouri in Jammu and Kashmir represents a relatively impoverished and climate change–vulnerable region. Therefore, we gauged people’s perceptions and actions in this area from a household survey from 717 randomly selected individuals. Further, consistency of perception was compared with meteorological records on temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and aboveground biomass from 1983 to 2013. The findings revealed that temperature increased significantly while changes in rainfall, wind speed, and relative humidity were insignificant. Although people sensed a rise in temperature and deforestation correctly, most of them differ with respect to rainfall, wind speed, and humidity. They reported rising pollution and traffic but no change in crop productivity or crop varieties. Of the respondents, 91% considered climate change as a risk, 86.8% reported reactive actions to it, and 82.8% reported proactive actions. Locals from varied socioeconomic backgrounds are not much informed about climate change; hence, the reasonability of their responses and positive adaptation actions needs further research. To engage people in climate adaptation actions, we suggest disseminating precise scientific information about local climate through awareness programs and by engaging them in climate change activities through suitable organizations.

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