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Jamese Sims
,
Tsengdar Lee
,
Dorothy Koch
,
Brian Gross
,
Ivanka Stajner
,
David Considine
,
Steven Pawson
,
Daryl Kleist
,
Ron Gelaro
,
Stylianos Flampouris
,
Youngsun Jung
, and
Marc Gasbarro
Full access
Lulin Xue
,
Sudarsan Bera
,
Sisi Chen
,
Harish Choudhary
,
Shivsai Dixit
,
Wojciech W. Grabowski
,
Sandeep Jayakumar
,
Steven Krueger
,
Gayatri Kulkarni
,
Sonia Lasher-Trapp
,
Holly Mallinson
,
Thara Prabhakaran
, and
Shin-ichiro Shima
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Xiang Xiao
,
Yangyang Xu
,
Xiaorui Zhang
,
Fan Wang
,
Xiao Lu
,
Zongwei Cai
,
Guy Brasseur
, and
Meng Gao

Abstract

Climate change and air pollution are two intimately interlinked global concerns. The frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves are projected to increase globally under future climate change. A growing body of evidence indicates that health risks associated with the joint exposure to heat waves and air pollution can be greater than that due to individual factors. However, the cooccurrences of heat and air pollution extremes in China remain less explored in the observational records. Here we investigate the spatial pattern and temporal trend of frequency, intensity, and duration of cooccurrences of heat and air pollution extremes using China’s nationwide observations of hourly PM2.5 and O3, and the ERA5 reanalysis dataset over 2013–20. We identify a significant increase in the frequency of cooccurrence of wet-bulb temperature (Tw ) and O3 exceedances (beyond a certain predefined threshold), mainly in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region (up by 4.7 days decade−1) and the Yangtze River delta (YRD). In addition, we find that the increasing rate (compared to the average levels during the study period) of joint exceedance is larger than the rate of Tw and O3 itself. For example, Tw and O3 coextremes increased by 7.0% in BTH, higher than the percentage increase of each at 0.9% and 5.5%, respectively. We identify same amplification for YRD. This ongoing upward trend in the joint occurrence of heat and O3 extremes should be recognized as an emerging environmental issue in China, given the potentially larger compounding impact to public health.

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James C. Fallon
,
Hannah C. Bloomfield
,
David J. Brayshaw
,
Sarah N. Sparrow
,
David C. H. Wallom
,
Tim Woollings
,
Kate Brown
,
Laura Dawkins
,
Erika Palin
,
Nikolaus Houben
,
Daniel Huppmann
, and
Bruno U. Schyska
Open access
Andrew J. Newman
,
Jeffrey R. Arnold
,
Andrew W. Wood
, and
Ethan D. Gutmann
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Adam J. Clark
,
Israel L. Jirak
,
Burkely T. Gallo
,
Kent H. Knopfmeier
,
Brett Roberts
,
Makenzie Krocak
,
Jake Vancil
,
Kimberly A. Hoogewind
,
Nathan A. Dahl
,
Eric D. Loken
,
David Jahn
,
David Harrison
,
David Imy
,
Patrick Burke
,
Louis J. Wicker
,
Patrick S. Skinner
,
Pamela L. Heinselman
,
Patrick Marsh
,
Katie A. Wilson
,
Andrew R. Dean
,
Gerald J. Creager
,
Thomas A. Jones
,
Jidong Gao
,
Yunheng Wang
,
Montgomery Flora
,
Corey K. Potvin
,
Christopher A. Kerr
,
Nusrat Yussouf
,
Joshua Martin
,
Jorge Guerra
,
Brian C. Matilla
, and
Thomas J. Galarneau
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Barbara Casati
,
Manfred Dorninger
,
Caio A. S. Coelho
,
Elizabeth E. Ebert
,
Chiara Marsigli
,
Marion P. Mittermaier
, and
Eric Gilleland

Abstract

The International Verification Methods Workshop was held online in November 2020 and included sessions on physical error characterization using process diagnostics and error tracking techniques; exploitation of data assimilation techniques in verification practices, e.g., to address representativeness issues and observation uncertainty; spatial verification methods and the Model Evaluation Tools, as unified reference verification software; and meta-verification and best practices for scores computation. The workshop reached out to diverse research communities working in the areas of high-impact weather, subseasonal to seasonal prediction, polar prediction, and sea ice and ocean prediction. This article summarizes the major outcomes of the workshop and outlines future strategic directions for verification research.

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Anna M. Wilson
,
Alison Cobb
,
F. Martin Ralph
,
Vijay Tallapragada
,
Chris Davis
,
James Doyle
,
Luca Delle Monache
,
Florian Pappenberger
,
Carolyn Reynolds
,
Aneesh Subramanian
,
Forest Cannon
,
Jason Cordeira
,
Jennifer Haase
,
Chad Hecht
,
David Lavers
,
Jonathan J. Rutz
, and
Minghua Zheng
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Marta Terrado
,
Luz Calvo
,
Dragana Bojovic
, and
Isadora Christel
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Daniele Visioni
and
Alan Robock
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