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Abstract
A series of papers published since 1998 asserts that US Tropical-Cyclone (TC) damage, when “normalized” for individual wealth, population, and inflation, exhibits no increase attributable to AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming). This result is here questioned for three reasons: 1) The then-year (no demographic or economic adjustments) US TC damage increases 2.5% per year faster than US then-year Gross Domestic Product. This result, which is substantially due to faster growth of assets in hurricane-prone states, shows that TC impacts on the total US economy double every generation. 2) Fitting of an exponential curve to normalized damage binned by 5-year “pentads” yields a growth rate of 1.06% yr−1 since 1900, although causes besides AGW may contribute. 3) During the 21st century, when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was in its warm phase, the most-damaging US TCs struck at twice the rate of the warm AMO of the 20th century and four times the rate of the entire 20th century, both warm and cool AMO phases.
A key unanswered question is: What will happen when (and if) the AMO returns to its cool phase later in this century?
Abstract
A series of papers published since 1998 asserts that US Tropical-Cyclone (TC) damage, when “normalized” for individual wealth, population, and inflation, exhibits no increase attributable to AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming). This result is here questioned for three reasons: 1) The then-year (no demographic or economic adjustments) US TC damage increases 2.5% per year faster than US then-year Gross Domestic Product. This result, which is substantially due to faster growth of assets in hurricane-prone states, shows that TC impacts on the total US economy double every generation. 2) Fitting of an exponential curve to normalized damage binned by 5-year “pentads” yields a growth rate of 1.06% yr−1 since 1900, although causes besides AGW may contribute. 3) During the 21st century, when the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was in its warm phase, the most-damaging US TCs struck at twice the rate of the warm AMO of the 20th century and four times the rate of the entire 20th century, both warm and cool AMO phases.
A key unanswered question is: What will happen when (and if) the AMO returns to its cool phase later in this century?
Abstract
Western Central Africa is atypical of the equatorial domain as the main dry season is cloudier than the rainy seasons. To understand this cloud cover's diurnal evolution, we set-up an infrared camera and acquired measurements of the total cloud cover fraction (TCF) and cloud optical depth at Bambidie, Gabon (0°44’30.5” S,12°58’12.4” O) from May to October 2022. Diurnal variations in TCF can be summarized into four types, mostly discretized through the timing and duration of clouds clearing in the afternoon (Early afternoon Clearing: EaC, Late afternoon Clearing: LaC and Clear Night: CNi) while one type (No Clearing: NoC) shows overcast conditions all day long.
Meteorological measurements show that NoC days record 50W/m2 less shortwave incoming surface radiation resulting in daytime temperatures 1°C lower than the seasonal norm, but 20% more diffuse light and 0.5mm/day less ETo. Conversely, EaC days record 50W/m2 more shortwave incoming surface radiation leading to temperatures 1.5°C higher than the seasonal norm, but 40% more direct light. The larger water demand (0.5mm/day more ETo) is partly compensated by more frequent rainfall at night-time.
The SAFNWC satellite estimates well capture the TCF variations for most of the 4 types. They confirm that TCF is dominated by very low and low clouds whose dissipation in the afternoon and evolution into fractional and cumuliform convective clouds explains the clearings on EaC and LaC days. Satellite estimates also show that the 4 types of days extracted at Bambidie are representative of a larger-scale cloud cover evolution in Western Central Africa, with a W-E gradient in the timing of afternoon cloud dissipation.
Abstract
Western Central Africa is atypical of the equatorial domain as the main dry season is cloudier than the rainy seasons. To understand this cloud cover's diurnal evolution, we set-up an infrared camera and acquired measurements of the total cloud cover fraction (TCF) and cloud optical depth at Bambidie, Gabon (0°44’30.5” S,12°58’12.4” O) from May to October 2022. Diurnal variations in TCF can be summarized into four types, mostly discretized through the timing and duration of clouds clearing in the afternoon (Early afternoon Clearing: EaC, Late afternoon Clearing: LaC and Clear Night: CNi) while one type (No Clearing: NoC) shows overcast conditions all day long.
Meteorological measurements show that NoC days record 50W/m2 less shortwave incoming surface radiation resulting in daytime temperatures 1°C lower than the seasonal norm, but 20% more diffuse light and 0.5mm/day less ETo. Conversely, EaC days record 50W/m2 more shortwave incoming surface radiation leading to temperatures 1.5°C higher than the seasonal norm, but 40% more direct light. The larger water demand (0.5mm/day more ETo) is partly compensated by more frequent rainfall at night-time.
The SAFNWC satellite estimates well capture the TCF variations for most of the 4 types. They confirm that TCF is dominated by very low and low clouds whose dissipation in the afternoon and evolution into fractional and cumuliform convective clouds explains the clearings on EaC and LaC days. Satellite estimates also show that the 4 types of days extracted at Bambidie are representative of a larger-scale cloud cover evolution in Western Central Africa, with a W-E gradient in the timing of afternoon cloud dissipation.
Abstract
Drought is one of the most complicated and challenging natural hazards, which occurs nearly in every part of the world and poses recurring challenges to agriculture, food security, livestock, human health, and water management. Pakistan has a long history of drought; however, this study focuses on drought analysis and projection in the province of Punjab, Pakistan, as it provides around 60% of the country’s food product, significantly contributing to the national food supply and economy. This study utilized the previous 56 years (1962–2017) of climate data to calculate the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and then extracted the drought variables of durations and severity for each meteorological station. The best-fit marginal probability distribution and copula models were chosen for the stations based on numerical as well as graphical evaluation. Lognormal and exponential probability distributions, as well as Gumbel, are selected as the best-fit probability distributions for both drought characteristics and bivariate copula model, respectively, for projections. From the projections, we can infer that the smaller return periods indicate high vulnerability while longer return periods with low vulnerability. The results suggest that Faisalabad, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, and Multan stations have the lowest return periods, indicating high vulnerability, and may experience drought more frequently in the future. Mianwali, Khanpur, Lahore, and Sialkot stations may have an intermediate vulnerability to drought events. The stations of Jhelum, Murree, and Sargodha have larger return periods, implying lower susceptibility to drought events in the future. The projected results provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders to optimize the risk of droughts on agriculture production, livestock, water management, human health, and food security in Punjab, Pakistan.
Abstract
Drought is one of the most complicated and challenging natural hazards, which occurs nearly in every part of the world and poses recurring challenges to agriculture, food security, livestock, human health, and water management. Pakistan has a long history of drought; however, this study focuses on drought analysis and projection in the province of Punjab, Pakistan, as it provides around 60% of the country’s food product, significantly contributing to the national food supply and economy. This study utilized the previous 56 years (1962–2017) of climate data to calculate the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and then extracted the drought variables of durations and severity for each meteorological station. The best-fit marginal probability distribution and copula models were chosen for the stations based on numerical as well as graphical evaluation. Lognormal and exponential probability distributions, as well as Gumbel, are selected as the best-fit probability distributions for both drought characteristics and bivariate copula model, respectively, for projections. From the projections, we can infer that the smaller return periods indicate high vulnerability while longer return periods with low vulnerability. The results suggest that Faisalabad, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, and Multan stations have the lowest return periods, indicating high vulnerability, and may experience drought more frequently in the future. Mianwali, Khanpur, Lahore, and Sialkot stations may have an intermediate vulnerability to drought events. The stations of Jhelum, Murree, and Sargodha have larger return periods, implying lower susceptibility to drought events in the future. The projected results provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders to optimize the risk of droughts on agriculture production, livestock, water management, human health, and food security in Punjab, Pakistan.
Abstract
River ice changes due to climate change significantly impact river hydrology, economies, and societies. This study employed the CMIP6 data and a river ice model to predict global river ice changes in response to climate change. Results indicate significant declines in global river ice due to global warming. With each 1°C increase in surface air temperature (SAT) in the future, river ice extent of ice-affected rivers decrease by 2.11 percentage points, and ice duration shorten by 8.4 days. Under the shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) scenario, the long-term mean SAT is 1.2°–2.5°C higher than in the near term. This leads to a 1.9–4.4-percentage-point decrease in global river ice extent, a 6.8–15.1-day decrease in river ice duration, and ice-free rivers increasing by up to 4.02%. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a warmer long-term mean SAT, leading to greater reductions in river ice. Geographically, river ice loss is most notable in North America, Europe, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau (TIB), particularly in peninsular, coastal, and mountainous regions due to the combined effects of initial temperatures and temperature increases. Overall, the eastern Europe (EEU) shows the greatest loss of river ice on average. Monthly analyses show the most substantial decreases from October to June, indicating pronounced seasonal variability. This study provides valuable insights for addressing challenges related to river ice changes in high-latitude and high-elevation regions.
Significance Statement
River ice has a significant impact on various aspects, including hydrology, ecology, and the economy. The ongoing global warming phenomenon has resulted in a decline in river ice. This ice acts as a barrier, affecting river gas exchange and influencing the metabolism of the river, which is crucial for regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The primary objective of this research is to examine the response of river ice to future climate change. The outcomes of this study will play a role in estimating future GHG emissions and understanding river metabolism, as well as providing a valuable reference for tackling emerging challenges in resource acquisition in high-latitude and high-altitude regions.
Abstract
River ice changes due to climate change significantly impact river hydrology, economies, and societies. This study employed the CMIP6 data and a river ice model to predict global river ice changes in response to climate change. Results indicate significant declines in global river ice due to global warming. With each 1°C increase in surface air temperature (SAT) in the future, river ice extent of ice-affected rivers decrease by 2.11 percentage points, and ice duration shorten by 8.4 days. Under the shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) scenario, the long-term mean SAT is 1.2°–2.5°C higher than in the near term. This leads to a 1.9–4.4-percentage-point decrease in global river ice extent, a 6.8–15.1-day decrease in river ice duration, and ice-free rivers increasing by up to 4.02%. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a warmer long-term mean SAT, leading to greater reductions in river ice. Geographically, river ice loss is most notable in North America, Europe, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau (TIB), particularly in peninsular, coastal, and mountainous regions due to the combined effects of initial temperatures and temperature increases. Overall, the eastern Europe (EEU) shows the greatest loss of river ice on average. Monthly analyses show the most substantial decreases from October to June, indicating pronounced seasonal variability. This study provides valuable insights for addressing challenges related to river ice changes in high-latitude and high-elevation regions.
Significance Statement
River ice has a significant impact on various aspects, including hydrology, ecology, and the economy. The ongoing global warming phenomenon has resulted in a decline in river ice. This ice acts as a barrier, affecting river gas exchange and influencing the metabolism of the river, which is crucial for regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The primary objective of this research is to examine the response of river ice to future climate change. The outcomes of this study will play a role in estimating future GHG emissions and understanding river metabolism, as well as providing a valuable reference for tackling emerging challenges in resource acquisition in high-latitude and high-altitude regions.
Abstract
With the rising global demand for renewable energy sources, a great number of offshore wind farms are being built worldwide, as well as in the northern South China Sea. There is, however, limited research on the impact of offshore wind farms on the atmospheric and marine environment, particularly tropical cyclones, which frequently occur in summertime in the South China Sea. In this paper, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate the impacts of large-scale offshore wind farms on tropical cyclones, using the case of Typhoon Hato, which caused severe damage in 2017. Model results reveal that maximum wind speeds in coastal areas decrease by 3–5 m s−1 and can reach a maximum of 8 m s−1. Furthermore, the wind farms change low-level moisture convergence, causing a shift in the precipitation center toward the wind farm area and causing a significant overall reduction (up to 16%) in precipitation. Model sensitivity experiments on the area and layout of the wind farm have been carried out. The results show that larger wind farm areas and denser turbine layouts cause a more substantial decrease in the wind speed over the coast and accumulated precipitation reduction, further corroborating our findings.
Significance Statement
This study holds significant implications for developing offshore wind farms in tropical cyclone-prone regions like the South China Sea. By focusing on Typhoon Hato as a case study, the research sheds light on the previously understudied relationship between large-scale offshore wind farms and tropical cyclones. The observed decrease in coastal wind speeds and altered precipitation patterns due to wind farm presence highlights the potential for mitigating cyclone-related risks in these regions. Additionally, the study’s sensitivity experiments underscore the importance of careful planning and design in optimizing wind farm layouts for maximum impact reduction. This research contributes vital insights into sustainable energy infrastructure development while minimizing environmental and meteorological risks in cyclone-prone areas.
Abstract
With the rising global demand for renewable energy sources, a great number of offshore wind farms are being built worldwide, as well as in the northern South China Sea. There is, however, limited research on the impact of offshore wind farms on the atmospheric and marine environment, particularly tropical cyclones, which frequently occur in summertime in the South China Sea. In this paper, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate the impacts of large-scale offshore wind farms on tropical cyclones, using the case of Typhoon Hato, which caused severe damage in 2017. Model results reveal that maximum wind speeds in coastal areas decrease by 3–5 m s−1 and can reach a maximum of 8 m s−1. Furthermore, the wind farms change low-level moisture convergence, causing a shift in the precipitation center toward the wind farm area and causing a significant overall reduction (up to 16%) in precipitation. Model sensitivity experiments on the area and layout of the wind farm have been carried out. The results show that larger wind farm areas and denser turbine layouts cause a more substantial decrease in the wind speed over the coast and accumulated precipitation reduction, further corroborating our findings.
Significance Statement
This study holds significant implications for developing offshore wind farms in tropical cyclone-prone regions like the South China Sea. By focusing on Typhoon Hato as a case study, the research sheds light on the previously understudied relationship between large-scale offshore wind farms and tropical cyclones. The observed decrease in coastal wind speeds and altered precipitation patterns due to wind farm presence highlights the potential for mitigating cyclone-related risks in these regions. Additionally, the study’s sensitivity experiments underscore the importance of careful planning and design in optimizing wind farm layouts for maximum impact reduction. This research contributes vital insights into sustainable energy infrastructure development while minimizing environmental and meteorological risks in cyclone-prone areas.
Abstract
The numerical weather prediction model HARMONIE-AROME and a multiple linear regression model (referred to in this article as the TURCLIM model after the local climate observation network) were used to model surface air temperature for 25–31 July 2018 in the City of Turku, Finland, to study their performance in urban areas and surrounding rural areas. The 0200 LT (local standard time) temperatures modeled by the HARMONIE-AROME and TURCLIM models were compared to each other and against the observed temperatures to find the model best suited for modeling the urban heat island effect and other spatial temperature variabilities during heatwaves. Observed temperatures were collected from 74 sites, representing both rural and urban environments. Both models were able to reproduce the spatial nighttime temperature variation. However, HARMONIE-AROME modeled temperatures were systematically warmer than the observed temperatures in stable conditions. Spatial differences between the models were mostly related to the physiographic characteristics: for the urban areas, HARMONIE-AROME modeled on average 1.4°C higher temperatures than the TURCLIM model, while for other land-cover types, the average difference was 0.51°C at maximum. The TURCLIM model performed well when the explanatory variables were able to incorporate enough information on the surrounding physiography. Respectively, systematic cold or warm bias occurred in the areas in which the thermophysically relevant physiography was lacking or was only partly captured by the model.
Significance Statement
As more and more people are living in an urban environment, the demand for accurate urban climate modeling is growing. This study aims to understand the differences between the numerical weather prediction and multiple linear regression modeling and their limitations in modeling surface air temperature in subkilometer scale. The case study shows that models are capable of predicting the spatial variation of 0200 LT nighttime temperature during a heatwave in a high-latitude coastal city. Both models are therefore valuable assets for city planners who need accurate information about the impacts of the physiography on the urban climate. The results indicate that to improve the performance of the models, more accurate physiographic description and higher spatial resolution of the models are needed.
Abstract
The numerical weather prediction model HARMONIE-AROME and a multiple linear regression model (referred to in this article as the TURCLIM model after the local climate observation network) were used to model surface air temperature for 25–31 July 2018 in the City of Turku, Finland, to study their performance in urban areas and surrounding rural areas. The 0200 LT (local standard time) temperatures modeled by the HARMONIE-AROME and TURCLIM models were compared to each other and against the observed temperatures to find the model best suited for modeling the urban heat island effect and other spatial temperature variabilities during heatwaves. Observed temperatures were collected from 74 sites, representing both rural and urban environments. Both models were able to reproduce the spatial nighttime temperature variation. However, HARMONIE-AROME modeled temperatures were systematically warmer than the observed temperatures in stable conditions. Spatial differences between the models were mostly related to the physiographic characteristics: for the urban areas, HARMONIE-AROME modeled on average 1.4°C higher temperatures than the TURCLIM model, while for other land-cover types, the average difference was 0.51°C at maximum. The TURCLIM model performed well when the explanatory variables were able to incorporate enough information on the surrounding physiography. Respectively, systematic cold or warm bias occurred in the areas in which the thermophysically relevant physiography was lacking or was only partly captured by the model.
Significance Statement
As more and more people are living in an urban environment, the demand for accurate urban climate modeling is growing. This study aims to understand the differences between the numerical weather prediction and multiple linear regression modeling and their limitations in modeling surface air temperature in subkilometer scale. The case study shows that models are capable of predicting the spatial variation of 0200 LT nighttime temperature during a heatwave in a high-latitude coastal city. Both models are therefore valuable assets for city planners who need accurate information about the impacts of the physiography on the urban climate. The results indicate that to improve the performance of the models, more accurate physiographic description and higher spatial resolution of the models are needed.
Abstract
This study examined future changes in the microphysical properties of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido, Japan. A process-tracking model that predicts the mass of the hydrometeors generated by each cloud microphysical process was implemented in a meteorological model. This implementation aimed to analyze the mass fraction of hydrometeors resulting from depositional growth and the riming process to the total mass of surface solid precipitation. Results from pseudo–global warming experiments suggest two potential future changes in the characteristics of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido. First, the rimed particles are expected to increase and be dominant over the west and northwest coast of Hokkaido, where heavy snowfall occurs primarily due to the lake effect. Second, the mass fraction from depositional growth under relatively higher temperatures is expected to increase. This increase is anticipated to be dominant over the eastern part and mountainous area of Hokkaido. Additionally, the fraction of liquid precipitation to total precipitation is expected to increase in the future. These results suggest that the microphysical properties of solid precipitation in Hokkaido are expected to be similar to those observed in the current climate over Hokuriku, the central part of Japan even in warmer climate conditions.
Significance Statement
This study examines potential future changes in the growth processes contributing to surface precipitation particles in Hokkaido, Japan. The surface solid precipitation particles in the western and eastern regions of Hokkaido are mainly generated through depositional growth that occurs within the temperature ranges −36° to −20°C and −20° to −10°C, respectively. A future shift is anticipated, with riming becoming the primary process. This shift suggests that snowfall particles will be heavier than those in the current climate, which would increase the snow-removal workload. The change in precipitation characteristics could influence adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change in cold regions.
Abstract
This study examined future changes in the microphysical properties of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido, Japan. A process-tracking model that predicts the mass of the hydrometeors generated by each cloud microphysical process was implemented in a meteorological model. This implementation aimed to analyze the mass fraction of hydrometeors resulting from depositional growth and the riming process to the total mass of surface solid precipitation. Results from pseudo–global warming experiments suggest two potential future changes in the characteristics of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido. First, the rimed particles are expected to increase and be dominant over the west and northwest coast of Hokkaido, where heavy snowfall occurs primarily due to the lake effect. Second, the mass fraction from depositional growth under relatively higher temperatures is expected to increase. This increase is anticipated to be dominant over the eastern part and mountainous area of Hokkaido. Additionally, the fraction of liquid precipitation to total precipitation is expected to increase in the future. These results suggest that the microphysical properties of solid precipitation in Hokkaido are expected to be similar to those observed in the current climate over Hokuriku, the central part of Japan even in warmer climate conditions.
Significance Statement
This study examines potential future changes in the growth processes contributing to surface precipitation particles in Hokkaido, Japan. The surface solid precipitation particles in the western and eastern regions of Hokkaido are mainly generated through depositional growth that occurs within the temperature ranges −36° to −20°C and −20° to −10°C, respectively. A future shift is anticipated, with riming becoming the primary process. This shift suggests that snowfall particles will be heavier than those in the current climate, which would increase the snow-removal workload. The change in precipitation characteristics could influence adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change in cold regions.
Abstract
Humid heat and associated heat stress have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration across the globe, particularly at lower latitudes. One of the more robust metrics for heat stress impacts on the human body is wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), because it incorporates temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. WBGT can typically only be measured using nonstandard instrumentation (e.g., black globe thermometers). However, estimation formulas have been developed to calculate WBGT using standard surface meteorological variables. This study evaluates several WBGT estimation formulas for the southeastern United States using North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network (ECONet) and U.S. Military measurement campaign data as verification. The estimation algorithm with the smallest mean absolute error was subsequently chosen to evaluate summer WBGT trends and extremes at 39 ASOS stations with long continuous (1950–2023) data records. Trend results showed that summer WBGT has increased throughout much of the southeastern United States, with larger increases at night than during the day. Although there were some surprisingly large WBGT trends at higher elevation locations far from coastlines, the greatest increases were predominantly located in the Florida Peninsula and Louisiana. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme (90th percentile) WBGTs were particularly stark in large coastal urban centers (e.g., New Orleans, Tampa, and Miami). Some locations like New Orleans and Tampa have experienced more than two additional extreme heat stress days and nights per decade since 1950, with an exponential escalation in the number of extreme summer nights during the most recent decade.
Significance Statement
Humid heat and associated heat stress pose threats to health in the moist subtropical climate of the southeastern United States. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a robust metric for heat stress but must be estimated using complex algorithms. We first evaluated the accuracy of three WBGT algorithms in the southeastern United States, using measured verification data. Subsequently, we used the most accurate algorithm to investigate WBGT trends and extremes since 1950 in 39 cities. Results showed that summer heat stress has increased throughout the region, especially at night. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme heat stress were most prevalent at urban coastal locations in Florida and Louisiana, emphasizing the impacts of increased urbanization and evaporation on heat stress.
Abstract
Humid heat and associated heat stress have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration across the globe, particularly at lower latitudes. One of the more robust metrics for heat stress impacts on the human body is wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), because it incorporates temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. WBGT can typically only be measured using nonstandard instrumentation (e.g., black globe thermometers). However, estimation formulas have been developed to calculate WBGT using standard surface meteorological variables. This study evaluates several WBGT estimation formulas for the southeastern United States using North Carolina Environment and Climate Observing Network (ECONet) and U.S. Military measurement campaign data as verification. The estimation algorithm with the smallest mean absolute error was subsequently chosen to evaluate summer WBGT trends and extremes at 39 ASOS stations with long continuous (1950–2023) data records. Trend results showed that summer WBGT has increased throughout much of the southeastern United States, with larger increases at night than during the day. Although there were some surprisingly large WBGT trends at higher elevation locations far from coastlines, the greatest increases were predominantly located in the Florida Peninsula and Louisiana. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme (90th percentile) WBGTs were particularly stark in large coastal urban centers (e.g., New Orleans, Tampa, and Miami). Some locations like New Orleans and Tampa have experienced more than two additional extreme heat stress days and nights per decade since 1950, with an exponential escalation in the number of extreme summer nights during the most recent decade.
Significance Statement
Humid heat and associated heat stress pose threats to health in the moist subtropical climate of the southeastern United States. Wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is a robust metric for heat stress but must be estimated using complex algorithms. We first evaluated the accuracy of three WBGT algorithms in the southeastern United States, using measured verification data. Subsequently, we used the most accurate algorithm to investigate WBGT trends and extremes since 1950 in 39 cities. Results showed that summer heat stress has increased throughout the region, especially at night. Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme heat stress were most prevalent at urban coastal locations in Florida and Louisiana, emphasizing the impacts of increased urbanization and evaporation on heat stress.
Abstract
This study explores the performance of a dense optical flow method in comparison to pattern-matching techniques for retrieving atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from water vapor images. Using high-resolution simulated datasets that represent various weather phenomena, we assess the performance of these methods across different weather regimes, time intervals, and pressure levels and quantify the uncertainties associated with retrieved winds. The optical flow algorithm consistently outperforms the feature matching approach. Notably, it produces wind speeds and AMVs that closely resemble the wind fields from the simulations, and unlike the feature matching algorithm, the optical flow algorithm exhibits consistent performance across different time intervals. In contrast, the feature matching approach yields vector fields that exhibit oversmoothing in certain areas and erratic behavior in others, while also producing less detailed, regionally constant speed maps. Furthermore, unlike feature matching, the optical flow method effectively calculates AMV near regions with missing data, generating a dense AMV field for every pixel in a pair of images. This superior performance and flexibility significantly influence the planning for future satellite missions aimed at retrieving atmospheric winds. As such, our work plays a critical role in determining the mission architecture and projected instrument performance for future atmospheric wind retrieval satellite missions. The study underscores the potential of the optical flow algorithm as a robust and efficient approach for atmospheric motion retrieval, thus contributing to advances in climate research and weather prediction.
Significance Statement
This research investigates the efficacy of two methods, optical flow and feature matching, for detecting atmospheric winds, referred to as atmospheric motion vectors, from satellite images of water vapor. Employing detailed simulated datasets that replicate real-world weather patterns, we found that optical flow consistently outperforms feature matching in various aspects. Notably, the optical flow method is not only more precise but also maintains its accuracy across different scenarios. These insights are critical for the design of future satellite missions focused on advancing our understanding of the atmosphere and enhancing weather predictions. This study contributes to advancements in climate research and supports improved weather forecasting, benefiting both scientific and societal needs.
Abstract
This study explores the performance of a dense optical flow method in comparison to pattern-matching techniques for retrieving atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from water vapor images. Using high-resolution simulated datasets that represent various weather phenomena, we assess the performance of these methods across different weather regimes, time intervals, and pressure levels and quantify the uncertainties associated with retrieved winds. The optical flow algorithm consistently outperforms the feature matching approach. Notably, it produces wind speeds and AMVs that closely resemble the wind fields from the simulations, and unlike the feature matching algorithm, the optical flow algorithm exhibits consistent performance across different time intervals. In contrast, the feature matching approach yields vector fields that exhibit oversmoothing in certain areas and erratic behavior in others, while also producing less detailed, regionally constant speed maps. Furthermore, unlike feature matching, the optical flow method effectively calculates AMV near regions with missing data, generating a dense AMV field for every pixel in a pair of images. This superior performance and flexibility significantly influence the planning for future satellite missions aimed at retrieving atmospheric winds. As such, our work plays a critical role in determining the mission architecture and projected instrument performance for future atmospheric wind retrieval satellite missions. The study underscores the potential of the optical flow algorithm as a robust and efficient approach for atmospheric motion retrieval, thus contributing to advances in climate research and weather prediction.
Significance Statement
This research investigates the efficacy of two methods, optical flow and feature matching, for detecting atmospheric winds, referred to as atmospheric motion vectors, from satellite images of water vapor. Employing detailed simulated datasets that replicate real-world weather patterns, we found that optical flow consistently outperforms feature matching in various aspects. Notably, the optical flow method is not only more precise but also maintains its accuracy across different scenarios. These insights are critical for the design of future satellite missions focused on advancing our understanding of the atmosphere and enhancing weather predictions. This study contributes to advancements in climate research and supports improved weather forecasting, benefiting both scientific and societal needs.
Abstract
Precipitation regionalization, serving as a foundation for extrapolating information from gauged to ungauged sites, contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of precipitation. However, existing studies have focused mainly on precipitation, neglecting the influence of climate background and meteorological circulation. Moreover, there is a lack of specialized analysis of regionalization results. This study proposes a novel approach to precipitation regionalization that considers covariates in the circulation field and periodic features. The method utilizes Barnett–Preisendorfer canonical correlation analysis coupled with principal component analysis (BPCCA) to select covariates and multivariate self-organizing map (SOM) clustering for preliminary regionalization. Wavelet decomposition is further used for regional feature analysis. The methodology is empirically applied to analyze summer precipitation in Shanxi Province, identifying homogeneous regions characterized by diverse spatiotemporal distributions. The results successfully identified 12 distinct regions of precipitation, effectively capturing the influence of topographic and atmospheric factors. According to the periodic and trend characteristics of each region at different time scales, we merged the division results on the three frequencies and six regions were ultimately differentiated. Specifically, a decreasing trend was observed in the southern and southeastern parts of Shanxi, as well as in the western part of the Lüliang Mountains. They had a significant 4-yr period mode, and the decreasing trend was more significant in the southern region. In contrast, northern Shanxi showed no trend and a significant 8-yr period mode. This proposed method presents an effective strategy for enhancing precipitation regionalization and extracting valuable information from the circulation field and multiple frequencies.
Abstract
Precipitation regionalization, serving as a foundation for extrapolating information from gauged to ungauged sites, contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the spatial distribution of precipitation. However, existing studies have focused mainly on precipitation, neglecting the influence of climate background and meteorological circulation. Moreover, there is a lack of specialized analysis of regionalization results. This study proposes a novel approach to precipitation regionalization that considers covariates in the circulation field and periodic features. The method utilizes Barnett–Preisendorfer canonical correlation analysis coupled with principal component analysis (BPCCA) to select covariates and multivariate self-organizing map (SOM) clustering for preliminary regionalization. Wavelet decomposition is further used for regional feature analysis. The methodology is empirically applied to analyze summer precipitation in Shanxi Province, identifying homogeneous regions characterized by diverse spatiotemporal distributions. The results successfully identified 12 distinct regions of precipitation, effectively capturing the influence of topographic and atmospheric factors. According to the periodic and trend characteristics of each region at different time scales, we merged the division results on the three frequencies and six regions were ultimately differentiated. Specifically, a decreasing trend was observed in the southern and southeastern parts of Shanxi, as well as in the western part of the Lüliang Mountains. They had a significant 4-yr period mode, and the decreasing trend was more significant in the southern region. In contrast, northern Shanxi showed no trend and a significant 8-yr period mode. This proposed method presents an effective strategy for enhancing precipitation regionalization and extracting valuable information from the circulation field and multiple frequencies.
