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Vitart F, A.W. Robertson, A. Spring, F. Pinault, R. Roskar, W. Cao, S. Bech, A. Bienkowski, N. Caltabiano, E. De Coning, B. Denis, A. Dirkson, J. Dramsch, P. Dueben, J. Gierschendorf, H. S. Kim, K. Nowak, D. Landry, L. Lledó, L. Palma, S. Rasp, and S. Zhou

Abstract

There is a high demand and expectation for sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction which provides forecasts beyond 2 weeks, but less than 3 months ahead. To assess the potential benefit of artificial intelligence (AI) methods for S2S prediction through better postprocessing of ensemble prediction system outputs, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) coordinated a prize challenge in 2021 to improve sub-seasonal prediction. The goal of this competition was to produce the most skillful forecasts of precipitation and two-meter temperature globally averaged over forecast weeks 3 and 4, and weeks 5 and 6 for the year 2020 using artificial intelligence techniques. The top three submissions, described in this article, succeeded in producing S2S forecasts significantly more skillful than the bias-corrected ECMWF operational reference forecasts, particularly for precipitation, through improved calibration of the ECMWF raw forecast outputs or multi-model combination. These forecast improvements should benefit the use of S2S forecasts in applications.

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Javier Diez-Sierra, Maialen Iturbide, José M. Gutiérrez, Jesús Fernández, Josipa Milovac, Antonio S. Cofiño, Ezequiel Cimadevilla, Grigory Nikulin, Guillaume Levavasseur, Erik Kjellström, Katharina Bülow, András Horányi, Anca Brookshaw, Markel García-Díez, Antonio Pérez, Jorge Baño-Medina, Bodo Ahrens, Antoinette Alias, Moetasim Ashfaq, Melissa Bukovsky, Erasmo Buonomo, Steven Caluwaerts, Sin Chan Chou, Ole B. Christensen, James M. Ciarlo´, Erika Coppola, Lola Corre, Marie-Estelle Demory, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Jason P. Evans, Rowan Fealy, Hendrik Feldmann, Daniela Jacob, Sanjay Jayanarayanan, Jack Katzfey, Klaus Keuler, Christoph Kittel, Mehmet Levent Kurnaz, René Laprise, Piero Lionello, Seth McGinnis, Paola Mercogliano, Pierre Nabat, Bariş Önol, Tugba Ozturk, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Dominique Paquin, Ildikó Pieczka, Francesca Raffaele, Armelle Reca Remedio, John Scinocca, Florence Sevault, Samuel Somot, Christian Steger, Fredolin Tangang, Claas Teichmann, Piet Termonia, Marcus Thatcher, Csaba Torma, Erik van Meijgaard, Robert Vautard, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, Katja Winger, and George Zittis

Abstract

The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas.

Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive documentation by compiling information from all contributing regional models, allowing for an informed use of data. In addition to presenting the worldwide CORDEX dataset, we assess here its consistency for precipitation and temperature by comparing climate change signals in regions with overlapping CORDEX domains, obtaining overall coincident regional climate change signals. The C3S CORDEX dataset has been used for the assessment of regional climate change in the IPCC AR6 (and for the interactive Atlas) and is available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS).

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Anamaria Bukvic, Kyle Mandli, Donovan Finn, Talea Mayo, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Alexis Merdjanoff, Christopher Davis, Rebecca Haacker, Rebecca Morss, Cassandra O’Lenick, Olga Wilhelmi, Danica Lombardozzi, and Joshua Alland

Abstract

The authors introduce the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Early-Career Faculty Innovator Program and present lessons learned about advancing interdisciplinary and convergent science with and for society. The Innovator Program brings together faculty and students from the social sciences with NCAR researchers to conduct interdisciplinary and convergent research on problems motivated by societal challenges in the face of climate change and environmental hazards. This article discusses aspects of program structure and the research being conducted. The article also emphasizes the challenges and successes of the research collaborations within the Innovator Program, along with lessons learned about engaging in highly interdisciplinary, potentially convergent work, particularly from the early-career perspective. Many projects involve faculty PIs from racially, ethnically, or otherwise minoritized groups, and Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs), or those who engage with marginalized communities. Hence, the Innovator Program is contributing to the development of a growing research community pursuing science with and for society that also broadens participation in research related to the atmospheric sciences.

Open access
J.K. Fletcher, C.A. Diop, E. Adefisan, M. Ahiataku, S.O. Ansah, C.E. Birch, H.L. Burns, S.J. Clarke, J. Gacheru, T.D. James, C.K. Ngetich Tuikong, D. Koros, V.S. Indasi, B.L. Lamptey, K.A. Lawal, D.J. Parker, A.J. Roberts, T.H.M. Stein, E. Visman, J. Warner, B.J. Woodhams, L.H. Youds, V.O. Ajayi, E.N. Bosire, C. Cafaro, C.A.T. Camara, B. Chanzu, C. Dione, W. Gitau, D. Groves, J. Groves, P.G. Hill, I. Ishiyaku, C.M. Klein, J.H. Marsham, B.K. Mutai, P.N. Ndiaye, M. Osei, T.I. Popoola, J. Talib, C.M. Taylor, and D. Walker

Abstract

Testbeds have become integral to advancing the transfer of knowledge and capabilities from research to operational weather forecasting in many parts of the world. The first high-impact weather testbed in tropical Africa was recently carried out through the African SWIFT program, with participation from researchers and forecasters from Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, the United Kingdom, and international and pan-African organizations.

The testbed aims were to trial new forecasting and nowcasting products with operational forecasters, to inform future research, and to act as a template for future testbeds in the tropics. The African SWIFT testbed integrated users and researchers throughout the process to facilitate development of impact-based forecasting methods and new research ideas driven both by operations and user input.

The new products are primarily satellite-based nowcasting systems and ensemble forecasts at global and regional convection-permitting scales. Neither of these was used operationally in the participating African countries prior to the testbed. The testbed received constructive, positive feedback via intense user interaction including fishery, agriculture, aviation, and electricity sectors.

After the testbed, a final set of recommended standard operating procedures for satellite-based nowcasting in tropical Africa have been produced. The testbed brought the attention of funding agencies and organizational directors to the immediate benefit of improved forecasts. Delivering the testbed strengthened the partnership between each country’s participating university and weather forecasting agency and internationally, which is key to ensuring the longevity of the testbed outcomes.

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Carlo Buontempo, Samantha N Burgess, Dick Dee, Bernard Pinty, Jean-Noël Thépaut, Michel Rixen, Samuel Almond, David Armstrong, Anca Brookshaw, Angel Lopez Alos, Bill Bell, Cedric Bergeron, Chiara Cagnazzo, Edward Comyn-Platt, Eduardo Damasio-Da-Costa, Anabelle Guillory, Hans Hersbach, András Horányi, Julien Nicolas, Andre Obregon, Eduardo Penabad Ramos, Baudouin Raoult, Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Adrian Simmons, Cornel Soci, Martin Suttie, Freja Vamborg, James Varndell, Stijn Vermoote, Xiaobo Yang, and Juan Garcés de Marcilla

Abstract

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) provides open and free access to state-of-the-art climate data and tools for use by governments, public authorities, and private entities around the world. It is fully funded by the European Union and implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF together with public and private entities in Europe and elsewhere. With over 120,000 registered users worldwide, C3S has rapidly become an authoritative climate service in Europe and beyond, delivering quality-assured climate data and information based on the latest science.

Established in 2014, C3S became fully operational in 2018 with the launch of its Climate Data Store, a powerful cloud-based infrastructure providing access to a vast range of global and regional information, including climate data records derived from observations, the latest ECMWF reanalyses, seasonal forecast data from multiple providers and a large collection of climate projections. The system has been designed to be accessible to non-specialists, offering a uniform interface to all data and documentation as well as a Python-based toolbox that can be used to process and use the data online.

C3S publishes European State of the Climate reports annually for policymakers, as well as monthly and annual summaries which are widely disseminated in the international press. Together with users, C3S develops customized indicators of climate impacts in economic sectors such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health and urban planning. C3S works closely with national climate service providers, satellite agencies and other stakeholders on the improvement of its data and services.

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W. Scott Lincoln, Rafal Ogorek, Brett Borchardt, and Siobhan Heraty

Abstract

The number and location of tornadoes in the Greater Chicago area is a topic of frequent interest among the media, public, and local government agencies served by the National Weather Service (NWS) Chicago Forecast Office. While accounts of tornadoes over the last several decades are generally clear, tornadoes occurring prior to 1950 – especially those considered to be weak – are often more difficult to discern owing to limited corresponding detailed reports. As part of an effort to review and update all tornadoes known to have occurred within the modern-day boundaries of Chicago, NWS Chicago staff reviewed the 22 May 1855 tornado, which is regarded as the first to impact the city of Chicago. Multiple sources reported that the tornado occurred near the town of Jefferson, which eventually became the Jefferson Park neighborhood of Chicago. However, after reviewing multiple historical records, newspaper articles, property maps, and genealogical information, the actual location of the tornado was determined to have been in present-day Des Plaines. Confusion over the name “Jefferson” likely led to the misunderstanding that, until now, has been perpetuated through numerous reports and media accounts.

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Adam J. Clark, Israel L. Jirak, Burkely T. Gallo, Brett Roberts, Kent H. Knopfmeier, Jake Vancil, David Jahn, Makenzie Krocak, Christopher D. Karstens, Eric D. Loken, Nathan A. Dahl, David Harrison, David Imy, Andrew R. Wade, Jeffrey M. Milne, Kimberly A. Hoogewind, Montgomery Flora, Joshua Martin, Brian C. Matilla, Joseph C. Picca, Corey K. Potvin, Patrick S. Skinner, and Patrick Burke
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Jerald Brotzge, Junhong (June) Wang, Nathan Bain, Scott Miller, and Crystal Perno

Abstract

Camera technology has evolved rapidly over the last decade; photo quality continues to improve while cameras are getting smaller, more rugged, and cheaper. One outcome of this technological progress is that cameras can now be deployed remotely at low cost wherever solar power and wireless communication are available. While numerous camera networks are deployed nationwide to survey traffic conditions and monitor local security, the adoption of cameras as a weather observing tool is relatively new. The New York State Mesonet (NYSM) is a network of 126 weather stations deployed across the state of New York, collecting, archiving, and disseminating a suite of atmospheric and soil variables every 5 min. One unique feature of the NYSM is that every station is equipped with a camera. Still images are collected every 5 min coincident with the standard environmental data during daylight hours, and hourly during the overnight hours. Since installation of the first station in 2015, the camera network has proven to be an essential element of information gathering, a critical data source for the forecast and emergency management communities, and a unique teaching resource of pictorial and visualized learning for kindergarten through high school (K–12) education. More specifically, the camera network supports 1) weather operations, 2) commercial applications, 3) data quality control, 4) site metadata, 5) site security, and 6) research and 7) educational opportunities. This article will review the many benefits, some challenges, and the future functional applications of cameras as part of an observation network. A strong case is made for making cameras an essential component of every weather station.

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Jianshun Wang, Qiang Zhang, Liang Zhang, Ying Wang, Ping Yue, Yanbin Hu, and Peilong Ye

Abstract

As impacted by climate change and further global warming, drought turns out to be the most frequent meteorological extreme event worldwide, which severely affects agriculture, ecosystem, water management, and even human survival. In this study, the global pattern and development trends and directions on drought monitoring were presented based on Web of Science database by conducting a bibliometric analysis from 1983 to 2020. The following conclusions were drawn. 1) The United States and China were found as the most productive and influential nations, accounting for 24.63% and 14.30% in publication outputs and taking up 5,023 and 2,040 in local citations, respectively. 2) Chinese Academy of Science was reported as the core institution with 5.73% publication outputs and 829 local citations. 3) Remote Sensing of Environment and Remote Sensing were found as the most influential journals and the most productive journals with 1,045 local citations and 210 publication outputs, respectively. 4) Agricultural drought profoundly affecting food security was found as the most concerning drought type in the world. The drought monitoring research mainly focus on the research and development of drought index, the response of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, and the trends and dynamics of drought in context of climate change. This study explored key findings, contradictions, and limitations of drought monitoring studies were summarized and explored. In addition, the development trend and research direction of drought monitoring research in the future were also explored.

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Katia Lamer, Edward P. Luke, Brian Walsh Jr., Steven Andrade, Zackary Mages, Zeen Zhu, Erin Leghart, Bernat P. Treserras, Ann Emrick, Pavlos Kollias, Andrew Vogelmann, and Martin Schoonen

Abstract

The Brookhaven National Laboratory Center for Multiscale Applied Sensing (CMAS) aims to address environmental equity needs in the context of a changing climate. As a first step toward this goal, the center developed a one-of-a-kind observatory tailored to the study of highly heterogeneous urban environments. This article describes the features of the mobile observatory that enable its rapid deployment either on or off the power grid, as well as its instrument payload. Beyond its unique design, the observatory optimizes data collection within the obstacle-laden urban environment using a new smart sampling paradigm. This setup facilitated the collection of previously poorly documented environmental properties, including wind profiles throughout the atmospheric column. The mobile observatory captured unique observations during its first few intensive observation periods. Vertical air motion and infrared temperature measurements collected along the faces of the supertall One Vanderbilt skyscraper in Manhattan, NY, reveal how solar and anthropogenic heating affect wind flow and thus the venting of heat, pollution, and contaminants in urban street canyons. Also, air temperature measurements collected during travel along a 150-km transect between Upton and Manhattan, NY, offer a high-resolution view of the urban heat island and reveal that temperature disparities also exist within the city across different neighborhoods. Ultimately, the datasets collected by CMAS are poised to help guide equitable urban planning by highlighting existing disparities and characterizing the impact of urban features on the urban microclimate with the goal of improving human comfort.

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