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Abstract
The tropical cloud forest ecosystem in western equatorial Africa (WEA) is known to be sensitive to the presence of an extensive and persistent low-level stratiform cloud deck during the long dry season from June to September (JJAS). Here, we present a new climatology of the diurnal cycle of the low-level cloud cover from surface synoptic stations over WEA during JJAS 1971–2019. For the period JJAS 2008–19, we also utilized estimates of cloudiness from four satellite products, namely, the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (SAFNWC) cloud classification, the Day and Night Microphysical Schemes (DMS/NMS), and cross sections from CALIPSO and CloudSat (2B-GEOPROF-lidar). A comparison with surface stations reveals that the NMS at night together with SAFNWC at daytime yield the smallest biases. The climatological analysis reveals that low-level clouds persist during the day over the coastal plains and windward side of the low mountain ranges. Conversely, on their leeward sides, i.e., over the plateaus, a decrease of the low-level cloud frequency is observed in the afternoon, together with a change from stratocumulus to cumulus. At night, the low-level cloud deck reforms over this region with the largest cloud occurrence frequencies in the morning. Vertical profiles from 2B-GEOPROF-lidar reveal cloud tops below 3000 m even at daytime. The station data and the suitable satellite products form the basis to better understand the physical processes controlling the clouds and to evaluate cloudiness from reanalyses and models.
Abstract
The tropical cloud forest ecosystem in western equatorial Africa (WEA) is known to be sensitive to the presence of an extensive and persistent low-level stratiform cloud deck during the long dry season from June to September (JJAS). Here, we present a new climatology of the diurnal cycle of the low-level cloud cover from surface synoptic stations over WEA during JJAS 1971–2019. For the period JJAS 2008–19, we also utilized estimates of cloudiness from four satellite products, namely, the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (SAFNWC) cloud classification, the Day and Night Microphysical Schemes (DMS/NMS), and cross sections from CALIPSO and CloudSat (2B-GEOPROF-lidar). A comparison with surface stations reveals that the NMS at night together with SAFNWC at daytime yield the smallest biases. The climatological analysis reveals that low-level clouds persist during the day over the coastal plains and windward side of the low mountain ranges. Conversely, on their leeward sides, i.e., over the plateaus, a decrease of the low-level cloud frequency is observed in the afternoon, together with a change from stratocumulus to cumulus. At night, the low-level cloud deck reforms over this region with the largest cloud occurrence frequencies in the morning. Vertical profiles from 2B-GEOPROF-lidar reveal cloud tops below 3000 m even at daytime. The station data and the suitable satellite products form the basis to better understand the physical processes controlling the clouds and to evaluate cloudiness from reanalyses and models.
Abstract
Extreme near-surface wind speeds in cities can have major societal impacts but are not well represented in climate models. Despite this, large-scale dynamics in the free troposphere, which models resolve better, could provide reliable constraints on local extreme winds. This study identifies synoptic circulations associated with midlatitude extreme wind events and assesses how resolution affects their representation in analysis products and a climate model framework. Composites of reanalysis (ERA5) sea level pressure and upper-tropospheric winds during observed extreme wind events reveal distinct circulation structures for each quadrant of the surface-wind rose. Enhanced resolution of the analysis product (ERA5 versus the higher-resolution ECMWF Operational Analysis) reduced wind speed biases but has little impact on capturing occurrences of wind extremes seen in station observations. Composite circulations for surface wind extremes in a climate model (CESM) skillfully reproduce circulations found in reanalysis. Regional refinement of CESM over a region centered on southern Ontario, Canada, using variable resolution (VR-CESM) improves representation of surface ageostrophic circulations and the strength of vertical coupling between upper-level and near-surface winds. We thus can distinguish situations for which regional refinement (dynamical downscaling) is necessary for realistic representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with extreme winds, from situations where the coarse resolution of standard GCMs is sufficient.
Significance Statement
In this study we identify the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that drive extreme wind speeds in Canadian cities, and how well numerical climate models, which are used for producing climate change projections, represent these circulation patterns. Climate models do not simulate local winds as accurately as larger-scale phenomena, so this work can help identify useful information that models contain regarding extreme winds. For cities in eastern Canada, a benchmark model generally performs well, but a model with refined spatial resolution over southern Ontario improves agreement with patterns for observed extreme winds in that region.
Abstract
Extreme near-surface wind speeds in cities can have major societal impacts but are not well represented in climate models. Despite this, large-scale dynamics in the free troposphere, which models resolve better, could provide reliable constraints on local extreme winds. This study identifies synoptic circulations associated with midlatitude extreme wind events and assesses how resolution affects their representation in analysis products and a climate model framework. Composites of reanalysis (ERA5) sea level pressure and upper-tropospheric winds during observed extreme wind events reveal distinct circulation structures for each quadrant of the surface-wind rose. Enhanced resolution of the analysis product (ERA5 versus the higher-resolution ECMWF Operational Analysis) reduced wind speed biases but has little impact on capturing occurrences of wind extremes seen in station observations. Composite circulations for surface wind extremes in a climate model (CESM) skillfully reproduce circulations found in reanalysis. Regional refinement of CESM over a region centered on southern Ontario, Canada, using variable resolution (VR-CESM) improves representation of surface ageostrophic circulations and the strength of vertical coupling between upper-level and near-surface winds. We thus can distinguish situations for which regional refinement (dynamical downscaling) is necessary for realistic representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with extreme winds, from situations where the coarse resolution of standard GCMs is sufficient.
Significance Statement
In this study we identify the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that drive extreme wind speeds in Canadian cities, and how well numerical climate models, which are used for producing climate change projections, represent these circulation patterns. Climate models do not simulate local winds as accurately as larger-scale phenomena, so this work can help identify useful information that models contain regarding extreme winds. For cities in eastern Canada, a benchmark model generally performs well, but a model with refined spatial resolution over southern Ontario improves agreement with patterns for observed extreme winds in that region.
Abstract
Central Europe has experienced a sequence of unprecedented summer droughts since 2015, which had considerable effects on the functioning and productivity of natural and agricultural systems. Placing these recent extremes in a long-term context of natural climate variability is, however, constrained by the limited length of observational records. Here, we use tree-ring stable oxygen and carbon isotopes to develop annually resolved reconstructions of growing season temperature and summer moisture variability for central Europe during the past 2000 years. Both records are independently interpolated across the southern Czech Republic and northeastern Austria to produce explicit estimates of the optimum agroclimatic zones, based on modern references of climatic forcing. Historical documentation of agricultural productivity and climate variability since 1090 CE provides strong quantitative verification of our new reconstructions. Our isotope records not only contain clear expressions of the medieval (920–1000 CE) and Renaissance (early sixteenth century) droughts, but also the relative influence of temperature and moisture on hydroclimatic conditions during the first millennium (including previously reported pluvials during the early third, fifth, and seventh centuries of the Common Era). We conclude that Czech agricultural production has experienced significant extremes over the past 2000 years, which includes periods for which there are no modern analogs.
Significance Statement
As temperatures increase, droughts are becoming a growing concern for European agriculture. Our study allows recent extremes to be contextualized and helps to better the understanding of potential drivers. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings were analyzed to reconstruct year-to-year and longer-term changes in both temperature and moisture over central Europe and the past 2000 years. We combine these proxy-based climate reconstructions to model how well crops were growing in the past. The early fifth and the early sixteenth centuries of the Common Era were most likely characterized by extreme conditions beyond what has been experienced in recent decades. Our reconstructions of natural variability might be used as a baseline in projections of future conditions.
Abstract
Central Europe has experienced a sequence of unprecedented summer droughts since 2015, which had considerable effects on the functioning and productivity of natural and agricultural systems. Placing these recent extremes in a long-term context of natural climate variability is, however, constrained by the limited length of observational records. Here, we use tree-ring stable oxygen and carbon isotopes to develop annually resolved reconstructions of growing season temperature and summer moisture variability for central Europe during the past 2000 years. Both records are independently interpolated across the southern Czech Republic and northeastern Austria to produce explicit estimates of the optimum agroclimatic zones, based on modern references of climatic forcing. Historical documentation of agricultural productivity and climate variability since 1090 CE provides strong quantitative verification of our new reconstructions. Our isotope records not only contain clear expressions of the medieval (920–1000 CE) and Renaissance (early sixteenth century) droughts, but also the relative influence of temperature and moisture on hydroclimatic conditions during the first millennium (including previously reported pluvials during the early third, fifth, and seventh centuries of the Common Era). We conclude that Czech agricultural production has experienced significant extremes over the past 2000 years, which includes periods for which there are no modern analogs.
Significance Statement
As temperatures increase, droughts are becoming a growing concern for European agriculture. Our study allows recent extremes to be contextualized and helps to better the understanding of potential drivers. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings were analyzed to reconstruct year-to-year and longer-term changes in both temperature and moisture over central Europe and the past 2000 years. We combine these proxy-based climate reconstructions to model how well crops were growing in the past. The early fifth and the early sixteenth centuries of the Common Era were most likely characterized by extreme conditions beyond what has been experienced in recent decades. Our reconstructions of natural variability might be used as a baseline in projections of future conditions.
Abstract
The transition layer in the trades has long been observed and simulated, but the physical processes producing its structure remain little investigated. Using extensive observations from the Elucidating the Role of Clouds–Circulation Coupling in Climate (EUREC4A) field campaign, we propose a new conceptual picture of the trade wind transition layer, occurring between the mixed-layer top (around 550 m) and subcloud-layer top (around 700 m). The theory of cloud-free convective boundary layers suggests a transition-layer structure with strong jumps at the mixed-layer top, yet such strong jumps are only observed rarely. Despite cloud-base cloud fraction measured as only 5.3% ± 3.2%, the canonical cloud-free convective boundary layer structure is infrequent and confined to large [O(200) km] cloud-free areas. We show that the majority of cloud bases form within the transition layer, instead of above it, and that the cloud-top height distribution is bimodal, with a first population of very shallow clouds (tops below 1.3 km) and a second population of deeper clouds (extending to 2–3 km depth). We then show that the life cycle of this first cloud population maintains the transition-layer structure. That is, very shallow clouds smooth vertical thermodynamic gradients in the transition layer by a condensation–evaporation mechanism, which is fully coupled to the mixed layer. Inferences from mixed-layer theory and mixing diagrams, moreover, suggest that the observed transition-layer structure does not affect the rate of entrainment mixing, but rather the properties of the air incorporated into the mixed layer, primarily to enhance its rate of moistening.
Significance Statement
The physical processes producing the structure of the trade wind transition layer, a thin atmospheric layer thought to be important for regulating convection, are not yet well understood. Using extensive observations from a recent field campaign, we find that the cloud-free convective boundary layer structure, with an abrupt discontinuity in thermodynamic variables, is infrequent, despite cloud-base cloud fraction being small. We show that very shallow clouds both forming and dissipating within the transition layer smooth vertical gradients compared to a jump, except in large [O(200) km] cloud-free areas. This condensation–evaporation mechanism, which is fully coupled to the mixed layer, does not appear to affect the rate of entrainment mixing, but rather the properties of air incorporated into the mixed layer.
Abstract
The transition layer in the trades has long been observed and simulated, but the physical processes producing its structure remain little investigated. Using extensive observations from the Elucidating the Role of Clouds–Circulation Coupling in Climate (EUREC4A) field campaign, we propose a new conceptual picture of the trade wind transition layer, occurring between the mixed-layer top (around 550 m) and subcloud-layer top (around 700 m). The theory of cloud-free convective boundary layers suggests a transition-layer structure with strong jumps at the mixed-layer top, yet such strong jumps are only observed rarely. Despite cloud-base cloud fraction measured as only 5.3% ± 3.2%, the canonical cloud-free convective boundary layer structure is infrequent and confined to large [O(200) km] cloud-free areas. We show that the majority of cloud bases form within the transition layer, instead of above it, and that the cloud-top height distribution is bimodal, with a first population of very shallow clouds (tops below 1.3 km) and a second population of deeper clouds (extending to 2–3 km depth). We then show that the life cycle of this first cloud population maintains the transition-layer structure. That is, very shallow clouds smooth vertical thermodynamic gradients in the transition layer by a condensation–evaporation mechanism, which is fully coupled to the mixed layer. Inferences from mixed-layer theory and mixing diagrams, moreover, suggest that the observed transition-layer structure does not affect the rate of entrainment mixing, but rather the properties of the air incorporated into the mixed layer, primarily to enhance its rate of moistening.
Significance Statement
The physical processes producing the structure of the trade wind transition layer, a thin atmospheric layer thought to be important for regulating convection, are not yet well understood. Using extensive observations from a recent field campaign, we find that the cloud-free convective boundary layer structure, with an abrupt discontinuity in thermodynamic variables, is infrequent, despite cloud-base cloud fraction being small. We show that very shallow clouds both forming and dissipating within the transition layer smooth vertical gradients compared to a jump, except in large [O(200) km] cloud-free areas. This condensation–evaporation mechanism, which is fully coupled to the mixed layer, does not appear to affect the rate of entrainment mixing, but rather the properties of air incorporated into the mixed layer.
Abstract
This study reported that the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) to major TCs (MTCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) region exhibited strong difference between boreal autumn (SON) and summer (JJA) since the early 2000s; the ratio of MTCs to the total number of TCs (MTC ratio) has continuously increased in SON but not in JJA. Due to this difference, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The increase of the MTC ratio in SON was associated with interdecadal variability in TC activity and 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) variability. The mean genesis location of TCs and ISOs accompanied by a negative outgoing longwave radiation anomaly shrunk and shifted westward simultaneously in SON since the early 2000s due to the westward extension of the WNP subtropical high. However, this change was not observed in JJA. This westward shift of ISO substantially modulated large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, which in turn enhanced the TC–ISO interaction and accelerated energy conversion between TC and ISO. The kinetic energy budget along the MTC track was further analyzed to understand the TC–ISO interaction. Both the lower-level barotropic energy conversion (CK) and upper-level baroclinic energy conversion (CE) contributed to the intensification of TCs. CK mainly resulted from the scale interaction between TCs and ISO, whereas CE resulted from TC-related perturbations.
Significant Statement
This study reported the seasonality of TC intensification in the WNP during the early 2000s. Here, we extended the previous work to present that the interdecadal increase of the ratio of TC developing to major TC (MTC; ≥category 3; referred to MTC ratio) exhibits strong seasonal dependence. That is, the MTC ratio stays stationary approximately in 30% for JJA, but it jumps from 40% to 50% in SON. Consequently, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The possible physical processes behind the increase of MTC ratio were discussed. These results may advance our knowledge about the TC intensification and were helpful for TC prediction.
Abstract
This study reported that the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) to major TCs (MTCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) region exhibited strong difference between boreal autumn (SON) and summer (JJA) since the early 2000s; the ratio of MTCs to the total number of TCs (MTC ratio) has continuously increased in SON but not in JJA. Due to this difference, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The increase of the MTC ratio in SON was associated with interdecadal variability in TC activity and 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) variability. The mean genesis location of TCs and ISOs accompanied by a negative outgoing longwave radiation anomaly shrunk and shifted westward simultaneously in SON since the early 2000s due to the westward extension of the WNP subtropical high. However, this change was not observed in JJA. This westward shift of ISO substantially modulated large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, which in turn enhanced the TC–ISO interaction and accelerated energy conversion between TC and ISO. The kinetic energy budget along the MTC track was further analyzed to understand the TC–ISO interaction. Both the lower-level barotropic energy conversion (CK) and upper-level baroclinic energy conversion (CE) contributed to the intensification of TCs. CK mainly resulted from the scale interaction between TCs and ISO, whereas CE resulted from TC-related perturbations.
Significant Statement
This study reported the seasonality of TC intensification in the WNP during the early 2000s. Here, we extended the previous work to present that the interdecadal increase of the ratio of TC developing to major TC (MTC; ≥category 3; referred to MTC ratio) exhibits strong seasonal dependence. That is, the MTC ratio stays stationary approximately in 30% for JJA, but it jumps from 40% to 50% in SON. Consequently, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The possible physical processes behind the increase of MTC ratio were discussed. These results may advance our knowledge about the TC intensification and were helpful for TC prediction.
Abstract
The western-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) zonal wind affects El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by involving a series of multiscale air–sea interactions. Its interannual variation contributes the most to ENSO amplitude. Thus, understanding the predictability of the WCEP interannual wind is of great importance for better predictions of ENSO. Here, we show that the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) alternate in fueling this interannual wind from late boreal winter to austral winter in the presence of background trade winds in different hemispheres. During the boreal winter–spring, the NPO registers footprints in the tropics by benefiting from the Pacific meridional mode and modulating the northwestern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (NITCZ). However, as austral winter approaches, the SPO takes over the role of the NPO in maintaining the anomalous NITCZ. Moreover, the interannual wind is further driven to the east in the positive phase of the SPO, by intensified central-eastern equatorial Pacific convection resulting from tropical–extratropical heat flux adjustments. A reconstructed WCEP interannual wind index involving only the NPO and the SPO possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction of nearly one year. These two extratropical boosters enhance the viability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies associated with the large growth rate of ENSO, and the one in the winter hemisphere seems to be more efficient in forcing the tropics. Our result further indicates that the NPO benefits a long-lead prediction of the WCEP interannual wind and ENSO, while the SPO is the dominant extratropical predictor of ENSO amplitude.
Significance Statement
ENSO is closely linked to the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind, and ENSO prediction is impeded by the weak predictability of the wind. We have found that the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation take turns in affecting the interannual variability of the zonal wind from the late boreal winter to austral winter, and the winter hemisphere extratropical booster is more efficient in modulating tropical convection and the associated surface winds. An estimated zonal wind index constructed by the two extratropical precursors possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction. Our result provides useful information for better predicting ENSO by further considering winter hemisphere extratropical climate variability.
Abstract
The western-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) zonal wind affects El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by involving a series of multiscale air–sea interactions. Its interannual variation contributes the most to ENSO amplitude. Thus, understanding the predictability of the WCEP interannual wind is of great importance for better predictions of ENSO. Here, we show that the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) alternate in fueling this interannual wind from late boreal winter to austral winter in the presence of background trade winds in different hemispheres. During the boreal winter–spring, the NPO registers footprints in the tropics by benefiting from the Pacific meridional mode and modulating the northwestern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (NITCZ). However, as austral winter approaches, the SPO takes over the role of the NPO in maintaining the anomalous NITCZ. Moreover, the interannual wind is further driven to the east in the positive phase of the SPO, by intensified central-eastern equatorial Pacific convection resulting from tropical–extratropical heat flux adjustments. A reconstructed WCEP interannual wind index involving only the NPO and the SPO possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction of nearly one year. These two extratropical boosters enhance the viability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies associated with the large growth rate of ENSO, and the one in the winter hemisphere seems to be more efficient in forcing the tropics. Our result further indicates that the NPO benefits a long-lead prediction of the WCEP interannual wind and ENSO, while the SPO is the dominant extratropical predictor of ENSO amplitude.
Significance Statement
ENSO is closely linked to the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind, and ENSO prediction is impeded by the weak predictability of the wind. We have found that the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation take turns in affecting the interannual variability of the zonal wind from the late boreal winter to austral winter, and the winter hemisphere extratropical booster is more efficient in modulating tropical convection and the associated surface winds. An estimated zonal wind index constructed by the two extratropical precursors possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction. Our result provides useful information for better predicting ENSO by further considering winter hemisphere extratropical climate variability.
Abstract
Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation (P), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021; n = 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across Alaska, and during winter, spring, and autumn on the North Slope and North Panhandle (T2m > 0.50°C decade−1). Precipitation has also increased across climate divisions and appears strongly interrelated with temperature–sea ice feedbacks on the North Slope, specifically with increased (decreased) open water (sea ice extent). Snowfall equivalent (SFE) has decreased in autumn and spring, perhaps aligned with a regime transition of snow to rain, while winter SFE has broadly increased across the state. Sea ice decline and melt-season lengthening also have a pronounced signal around Alaska, with the largest trends in these parameters found in the Beaufort Sea. Alaska’s climatic changes are also placed in context against regional and contiguous U.S. air temperature trends and show ∼50% greater warming in Alaska relative to the lower-48 states. Alaska T2m increases also exceed those of any contiguous U.S. subregion, positioning Alaska at the forefront of U.S. climate warming.
Significance Statement
This study produces an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021) of key Alaska climate parameters, including air temperature, precipitation (including snowfall equivalent), and sea ice, to inform upcoming climate assessment reports, including the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) scheduled for publication in 2023. Key findings include widespread annual and seasonal warming with increased precipitation across much of the state. Winter snowfall has broadly increased, but spring and autumn snowfalls have decreased as rainfall increased. Autumn warming and precipitation increases over the North Slope, in particular, appear related to decreased sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Seas. These trends may result from interrelated processes that accelerate Alaska climate changes relative to those of the contiguous United States.
Abstract
Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation (P), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021; n = 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across Alaska, and during winter, spring, and autumn on the North Slope and North Panhandle (T2m > 0.50°C decade−1). Precipitation has also increased across climate divisions and appears strongly interrelated with temperature–sea ice feedbacks on the North Slope, specifically with increased (decreased) open water (sea ice extent). Snowfall equivalent (SFE) has decreased in autumn and spring, perhaps aligned with a regime transition of snow to rain, while winter SFE has broadly increased across the state. Sea ice decline and melt-season lengthening also have a pronounced signal around Alaska, with the largest trends in these parameters found in the Beaufort Sea. Alaska’s climatic changes are also placed in context against regional and contiguous U.S. air temperature trends and show ∼50% greater warming in Alaska relative to the lower-48 states. Alaska T2m increases also exceed those of any contiguous U.S. subregion, positioning Alaska at the forefront of U.S. climate warming.
Significance Statement
This study produces an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021) of key Alaska climate parameters, including air temperature, precipitation (including snowfall equivalent), and sea ice, to inform upcoming climate assessment reports, including the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) scheduled for publication in 2023. Key findings include widespread annual and seasonal warming with increased precipitation across much of the state. Winter snowfall has broadly increased, but spring and autumn snowfalls have decreased as rainfall increased. Autumn warming and precipitation increases over the North Slope, in particular, appear related to decreased sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Seas. These trends may result from interrelated processes that accelerate Alaska climate changes relative to those of the contiguous United States.
Abstract
The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM; IMERG) is a high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset widely used around the world. This study assessed the performance of the half-hourly IMERG v06 Early and Final Runs over a 5-yr period versus 19 high-quality surface stations in the Great Lakes region of North America. This assessment not only looked at precipitation occurrence and amount, but also studied the IMERG Quality Index (QI) and errors related to passive microwave (PMW) sources. Analysis of bias in accumulated precipitation amount and precipitation occurrence statistics suggests that IMERG presents various uncertainties with respect to time scale, meteorological season, PMW source, QI, and land surface type. Results indicate that 1) the cold season’s (November–April) larger relative bias can be mitigated via backward morphing; 2) IMERG 6-h precipitation amount scored best in the warmest season (JJA) with a consistent overestimation of the frequency bias index − 1 (FBI-1); 3) the performance of five PMW sources is affected by the season to different degrees; 4) in terms of some metrics, skills do not always enhance with increasing QI; 5) local lake effects lead to higher correlation and equitable threat score (ETS) for the stations closest to the lakes. Results of this study will be beneficial to both developers and users of IMERG precipitation products.
Significance Statement
The purpose of the study was to assess the performance of the gridded precipitation product from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) version 6 over the Great Lakes region of North America. The assessment performs a statistical comparison of precipitation amounts from IMERG versus surface stations as a function of time scale, season, precipitation event threshold, and input source among satellites. Interpretation of the results identifies shortcomings in the IMERG algorithms, particularly in extreme precipitation events and over ice-covered surfaces. The results also describe spatial variability in the IMERG data quality due to the complex geography of the study area and offer a clear threshold in the Quality Index (QI) flag for optimal application of the precipitation products.
Abstract
The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM; IMERG) is a high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset widely used around the world. This study assessed the performance of the half-hourly IMERG v06 Early and Final Runs over a 5-yr period versus 19 high-quality surface stations in the Great Lakes region of North America. This assessment not only looked at precipitation occurrence and amount, but also studied the IMERG Quality Index (QI) and errors related to passive microwave (PMW) sources. Analysis of bias in accumulated precipitation amount and precipitation occurrence statistics suggests that IMERG presents various uncertainties with respect to time scale, meteorological season, PMW source, QI, and land surface type. Results indicate that 1) the cold season’s (November–April) larger relative bias can be mitigated via backward morphing; 2) IMERG 6-h precipitation amount scored best in the warmest season (JJA) with a consistent overestimation of the frequency bias index − 1 (FBI-1); 3) the performance of five PMW sources is affected by the season to different degrees; 4) in terms of some metrics, skills do not always enhance with increasing QI; 5) local lake effects lead to higher correlation and equitable threat score (ETS) for the stations closest to the lakes. Results of this study will be beneficial to both developers and users of IMERG precipitation products.
Significance Statement
The purpose of the study was to assess the performance of the gridded precipitation product from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) version 6 over the Great Lakes region of North America. The assessment performs a statistical comparison of precipitation amounts from IMERG versus surface stations as a function of time scale, season, precipitation event threshold, and input source among satellites. Interpretation of the results identifies shortcomings in the IMERG algorithms, particularly in extreme precipitation events and over ice-covered surfaces. The results also describe spatial variability in the IMERG data quality due to the complex geography of the study area and offer a clear threshold in the Quality Index (QI) flag for optimal application of the precipitation products.
Abstract
Since the 1950s, precipitation has been measured at national weather stations in China using national standard precipitation gauges. Gauges without a wind fence can significantly underestimate precipitation amounts, while this undercatch bias is closely related to surface wind speed and precipitation type. The observed surface wind speed across China has substantially declined during the past decades. Therefore, this study investigated the wind-induced error of the observed precipitation and its impact on regional and national mean trends in precipitation over China due to the reduction in surface wind speed. It was found that the wind-induced error for the mean annual precipitation nationwide was 29.28 mm yr−1, accounting for 3.92% of total precipitation amount. The variation of precipitation at the regional scale was large but the trends were both positive and negative, approximately cancelling at the national level and resulting in a small national mean trend. The raw observation data showed that the national mean precipitation increased at a rate of 1.85 mm yr−1 (10 a)−1 from 1960 to 2018, which was reduced to 0.33 mm yr−1 (10 a)−1 after correction, demonstrating that the correction of wind-induced error had an important impact on the trend of annual precipitation. Meanwhile, the reduction of surface wind speed was consistent at both the regional and national levels. On average, the wind-induced errors decreased at rates of −1.52, −1.34, and −0.14 mm yr−1 (10 a)−1 for total precipitation, rainfall, and snowfall, respectively. It illustrates that the decreases of the wind-induced error result in the increasing precipitation of raw observation.
Abstract
Since the 1950s, precipitation has been measured at national weather stations in China using national standard precipitation gauges. Gauges without a wind fence can significantly underestimate precipitation amounts, while this undercatch bias is closely related to surface wind speed and precipitation type. The observed surface wind speed across China has substantially declined during the past decades. Therefore, this study investigated the wind-induced error of the observed precipitation and its impact on regional and national mean trends in precipitation over China due to the reduction in surface wind speed. It was found that the wind-induced error for the mean annual precipitation nationwide was 29.28 mm yr−1, accounting for 3.92% of total precipitation amount. The variation of precipitation at the regional scale was large but the trends were both positive and negative, approximately cancelling at the national level and resulting in a small national mean trend. The raw observation data showed that the national mean precipitation increased at a rate of 1.85 mm yr−1 (10 a)−1 from 1960 to 2018, which was reduced to 0.33 mm yr−1 (10 a)−1 after correction, demonstrating that the correction of wind-induced error had an important impact on the trend of annual precipitation. Meanwhile, the reduction of surface wind speed was consistent at both the regional and national levels. On average, the wind-induced errors decreased at rates of −1.52, −1.34, and −0.14 mm yr−1 (10 a)−1 for total precipitation, rainfall, and snowfall, respectively. It illustrates that the decreases of the wind-induced error result in the increasing precipitation of raw observation.
Abstract
Mesoscale eddies are ubiquitous features of the global ocean circulation. Traditionally, anticyclonic eddies are thought to be associated with positive temperature anomalies while cyclonic eddies are associated with negative temperature anomalies. However, our recent study found that about one-fifth of the eddies identified from global satellite observations are cold-core anticyclonic eddies (CAEs) and warm-core cyclonic eddies (WCEs). Here we show that in the tropical oceans where the probabilities of CAEs and WCEs are high, there are significantly more CAEs and WCEs in summer than in winter. We conduct a suite of idealized numerical model experiments initialized with composite eddy structures obtained from Argo profiles as well as a heat budget analysis. The results highlight the key role of relative wind-stress-induced Ekman pumping, surface mixed layer depth, and vertical entrainment in the formation and seasonal cycle of these unconventional eddies. The relative wind stress is found to be particularly effective in converting conventional eddies into CAEs or WCEs when the surface mixed layer is shallow. The abundance of CAEs and WCEs in the global ocean calls for further research on this topic.
Abstract
Mesoscale eddies are ubiquitous features of the global ocean circulation. Traditionally, anticyclonic eddies are thought to be associated with positive temperature anomalies while cyclonic eddies are associated with negative temperature anomalies. However, our recent study found that about one-fifth of the eddies identified from global satellite observations are cold-core anticyclonic eddies (CAEs) and warm-core cyclonic eddies (WCEs). Here we show that in the tropical oceans where the probabilities of CAEs and WCEs are high, there are significantly more CAEs and WCEs in summer than in winter. We conduct a suite of idealized numerical model experiments initialized with composite eddy structures obtained from Argo profiles as well as a heat budget analysis. The results highlight the key role of relative wind-stress-induced Ekman pumping, surface mixed layer depth, and vertical entrainment in the formation and seasonal cycle of these unconventional eddies. The relative wind stress is found to be particularly effective in converting conventional eddies into CAEs or WCEs when the surface mixed layer is shallow. The abundance of CAEs and WCEs in the global ocean calls for further research on this topic.
