Browse
Abstract
The tropical cloud forest ecosystem in western equatorial Africa (WEA) is known to be sensitive to the presence of an extensive and persistent low-level stratiform cloud deck during the long dry season from June to September (JJAS). Here, we present a new climatology of the diurnal cycle of the low-level cloud cover from surface synoptic stations over WEA during JJAS 1971–2019. For the period JJAS 2008–19, we also utilized estimates of cloudiness from four satellite products, namely, the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (SAFNWC) cloud classification, the Day and Night Microphysical Schemes (DMS/NMS), and cross sections from CALIPSO and CloudSat (2B-GEOPROF-lidar). A comparison with surface stations reveals that the NMS at night together with SAFNWC at daytime yield the smallest biases. The climatological analysis reveals that low-level clouds persist during the day over the coastal plains and windward side of the low mountain ranges. Conversely, on their leeward sides, i.e., over the plateaus, a decrease of the low-level cloud frequency is observed in the afternoon, together with a change from stratocumulus to cumulus. At night, the low-level cloud deck reforms over this region with the largest cloud occurrence frequencies in the morning. Vertical profiles from 2B-GEOPROF-lidar reveal cloud tops below 3000 m even at daytime. The station data and the suitable satellite products form the basis to better understand the physical processes controlling the clouds and to evaluate cloudiness from reanalyses and models.
Abstract
The tropical cloud forest ecosystem in western equatorial Africa (WEA) is known to be sensitive to the presence of an extensive and persistent low-level stratiform cloud deck during the long dry season from June to September (JJAS). Here, we present a new climatology of the diurnal cycle of the low-level cloud cover from surface synoptic stations over WEA during JJAS 1971–2019. For the period JJAS 2008–19, we also utilized estimates of cloudiness from four satellite products, namely, the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (SAFNWC) cloud classification, the Day and Night Microphysical Schemes (DMS/NMS), and cross sections from CALIPSO and CloudSat (2B-GEOPROF-lidar). A comparison with surface stations reveals that the NMS at night together with SAFNWC at daytime yield the smallest biases. The climatological analysis reveals that low-level clouds persist during the day over the coastal plains and windward side of the low mountain ranges. Conversely, on their leeward sides, i.e., over the plateaus, a decrease of the low-level cloud frequency is observed in the afternoon, together with a change from stratocumulus to cumulus. At night, the low-level cloud deck reforms over this region with the largest cloud occurrence frequencies in the morning. Vertical profiles from 2B-GEOPROF-lidar reveal cloud tops below 3000 m even at daytime. The station data and the suitable satellite products form the basis to better understand the physical processes controlling the clouds and to evaluate cloudiness from reanalyses and models.
Abstract
Extreme near-surface wind speeds in cities can have major societal impacts but are not well represented in climate models. Despite this, large-scale dynamics in the free troposphere, which models resolve better, could provide reliable constraints on local extreme winds. This study identifies synoptic circulations associated with midlatitude extreme wind events and assesses how resolution affects their representation in analysis products and a climate model framework. Composites of reanalysis (ERA5) sea level pressure and upper-tropospheric winds during observed extreme wind events reveal distinct circulation structures for each quadrant of the surface-wind rose. Enhanced resolution of the analysis product (ERA5 versus the higher-resolution ECMWF Operational Analysis) reduced wind speed biases but has little impact on capturing occurrences of wind extremes seen in station observations. Composite circulations for surface wind extremes in a climate model (CESM) skillfully reproduce circulations found in reanalysis. Regional refinement of CESM over a region centered on southern Ontario, Canada, using variable resolution (VR-CESM) improves representation of surface ageostrophic circulations and the strength of vertical coupling between upper-level and near-surface winds. We thus can distinguish situations for which regional refinement (dynamical downscaling) is necessary for realistic representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with extreme winds, from situations where the coarse resolution of standard GCMs is sufficient.
Significance Statement
In this study we identify the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that drive extreme wind speeds in Canadian cities, and how well numerical climate models, which are used for producing climate change projections, represent these circulation patterns. Climate models do not simulate local winds as accurately as larger-scale phenomena, so this work can help identify useful information that models contain regarding extreme winds. For cities in eastern Canada, a benchmark model generally performs well, but a model with refined spatial resolution over southern Ontario improves agreement with patterns for observed extreme winds in that region.
Abstract
Extreme near-surface wind speeds in cities can have major societal impacts but are not well represented in climate models. Despite this, large-scale dynamics in the free troposphere, which models resolve better, could provide reliable constraints on local extreme winds. This study identifies synoptic circulations associated with midlatitude extreme wind events and assesses how resolution affects their representation in analysis products and a climate model framework. Composites of reanalysis (ERA5) sea level pressure and upper-tropospheric winds during observed extreme wind events reveal distinct circulation structures for each quadrant of the surface-wind rose. Enhanced resolution of the analysis product (ERA5 versus the higher-resolution ECMWF Operational Analysis) reduced wind speed biases but has little impact on capturing occurrences of wind extremes seen in station observations. Composite circulations for surface wind extremes in a climate model (CESM) skillfully reproduce circulations found in reanalysis. Regional refinement of CESM over a region centered on southern Ontario, Canada, using variable resolution (VR-CESM) improves representation of surface ageostrophic circulations and the strength of vertical coupling between upper-level and near-surface winds. We thus can distinguish situations for which regional refinement (dynamical downscaling) is necessary for realistic representation of the large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with extreme winds, from situations where the coarse resolution of standard GCMs is sufficient.
Significance Statement
In this study we identify the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that drive extreme wind speeds in Canadian cities, and how well numerical climate models, which are used for producing climate change projections, represent these circulation patterns. Climate models do not simulate local winds as accurately as larger-scale phenomena, so this work can help identify useful information that models contain regarding extreme winds. For cities in eastern Canada, a benchmark model generally performs well, but a model with refined spatial resolution over southern Ontario improves agreement with patterns for observed extreme winds in that region.
Abstract
Central Europe has experienced a sequence of unprecedented summer droughts since 2015, which had considerable effects on the functioning and productivity of natural and agricultural systems. Placing these recent extremes in a long-term context of natural climate variability is, however, constrained by the limited length of observational records. Here, we use tree-ring stable oxygen and carbon isotopes to develop annually resolved reconstructions of growing season temperature and summer moisture variability for central Europe during the past 2000 years. Both records are independently interpolated across the southern Czech Republic and northeastern Austria to produce explicit estimates of the optimum agroclimatic zones, based on modern references of climatic forcing. Historical documentation of agricultural productivity and climate variability since 1090 CE provides strong quantitative verification of our new reconstructions. Our isotope records not only contain clear expressions of the medieval (920–1000 CE) and Renaissance (early sixteenth century) droughts, but also the relative influence of temperature and moisture on hydroclimatic conditions during the first millennium (including previously reported pluvials during the early third, fifth, and seventh centuries of the Common Era). We conclude that Czech agricultural production has experienced significant extremes over the past 2000 years, which includes periods for which there are no modern analogs.
Significance Statement
As temperatures increase, droughts are becoming a growing concern for European agriculture. Our study allows recent extremes to be contextualized and helps to better the understanding of potential drivers. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings were analyzed to reconstruct year-to-year and longer-term changes in both temperature and moisture over central Europe and the past 2000 years. We combine these proxy-based climate reconstructions to model how well crops were growing in the past. The early fifth and the early sixteenth centuries of the Common Era were most likely characterized by extreme conditions beyond what has been experienced in recent decades. Our reconstructions of natural variability might be used as a baseline in projections of future conditions.
Abstract
Central Europe has experienced a sequence of unprecedented summer droughts since 2015, which had considerable effects on the functioning and productivity of natural and agricultural systems. Placing these recent extremes in a long-term context of natural climate variability is, however, constrained by the limited length of observational records. Here, we use tree-ring stable oxygen and carbon isotopes to develop annually resolved reconstructions of growing season temperature and summer moisture variability for central Europe during the past 2000 years. Both records are independently interpolated across the southern Czech Republic and northeastern Austria to produce explicit estimates of the optimum agroclimatic zones, based on modern references of climatic forcing. Historical documentation of agricultural productivity and climate variability since 1090 CE provides strong quantitative verification of our new reconstructions. Our isotope records not only contain clear expressions of the medieval (920–1000 CE) and Renaissance (early sixteenth century) droughts, but also the relative influence of temperature and moisture on hydroclimatic conditions during the first millennium (including previously reported pluvials during the early third, fifth, and seventh centuries of the Common Era). We conclude that Czech agricultural production has experienced significant extremes over the past 2000 years, which includes periods for which there are no modern analogs.
Significance Statement
As temperatures increase, droughts are becoming a growing concern for European agriculture. Our study allows recent extremes to be contextualized and helps to better the understanding of potential drivers. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in oak tree rings were analyzed to reconstruct year-to-year and longer-term changes in both temperature and moisture over central Europe and the past 2000 years. We combine these proxy-based climate reconstructions to model how well crops were growing in the past. The early fifth and the early sixteenth centuries of the Common Era were most likely characterized by extreme conditions beyond what has been experienced in recent decades. Our reconstructions of natural variability might be used as a baseline in projections of future conditions.
Abstract
This study reported that the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) to major TCs (MTCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) region exhibited strong difference between boreal autumn (SON) and summer (JJA) since the early 2000s; the ratio of MTCs to the total number of TCs (MTC ratio) has continuously increased in SON but not in JJA. Due to this difference, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The increase of the MTC ratio in SON was associated with interdecadal variability in TC activity and 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) variability. The mean genesis location of TCs and ISOs accompanied by a negative outgoing longwave radiation anomaly shrunk and shifted westward simultaneously in SON since the early 2000s due to the westward extension of the WNP subtropical high. However, this change was not observed in JJA. This westward shift of ISO substantially modulated large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, which in turn enhanced the TC–ISO interaction and accelerated energy conversion between TC and ISO. The kinetic energy budget along the MTC track was further analyzed to understand the TC–ISO interaction. Both the lower-level barotropic energy conversion (CK) and upper-level baroclinic energy conversion (CE) contributed to the intensification of TCs. CK mainly resulted from the scale interaction between TCs and ISO, whereas CE resulted from TC-related perturbations.
Significant Statement
This study reported the seasonality of TC intensification in the WNP during the early 2000s. Here, we extended the previous work to present that the interdecadal increase of the ratio of TC developing to major TC (MTC; ≥category 3; referred to MTC ratio) exhibits strong seasonal dependence. That is, the MTC ratio stays stationary approximately in 30% for JJA, but it jumps from 40% to 50% in SON. Consequently, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The possible physical processes behind the increase of MTC ratio were discussed. These results may advance our knowledge about the TC intensification and were helpful for TC prediction.
Abstract
This study reported that the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) to major TCs (MTCs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) region exhibited strong difference between boreal autumn (SON) and summer (JJA) since the early 2000s; the ratio of MTCs to the total number of TCs (MTC ratio) has continuously increased in SON but not in JJA. Due to this difference, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The increase of the MTC ratio in SON was associated with interdecadal variability in TC activity and 30–60-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) variability. The mean genesis location of TCs and ISOs accompanied by a negative outgoing longwave radiation anomaly shrunk and shifted westward simultaneously in SON since the early 2000s due to the westward extension of the WNP subtropical high. However, this change was not observed in JJA. This westward shift of ISO substantially modulated large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions, which in turn enhanced the TC–ISO interaction and accelerated energy conversion between TC and ISO. The kinetic energy budget along the MTC track was further analyzed to understand the TC–ISO interaction. Both the lower-level barotropic energy conversion (CK) and upper-level baroclinic energy conversion (CE) contributed to the intensification of TCs. CK mainly resulted from the scale interaction between TCs and ISO, whereas CE resulted from TC-related perturbations.
Significant Statement
This study reported the seasonality of TC intensification in the WNP during the early 2000s. Here, we extended the previous work to present that the interdecadal increase of the ratio of TC developing to major TC (MTC; ≥category 3; referred to MTC ratio) exhibits strong seasonal dependence. That is, the MTC ratio stays stationary approximately in 30% for JJA, but it jumps from 40% to 50% in SON. Consequently, more MTCs form and pass through the western flank of the WNP region in SON. The possible physical processes behind the increase of MTC ratio were discussed. These results may advance our knowledge about the TC intensification and were helpful for TC prediction.
Abstract
The western-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) zonal wind affects El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by involving a series of multiscale air–sea interactions. Its interannual variation contributes the most to ENSO amplitude. Thus, understanding the predictability of the WCEP interannual wind is of great importance for better predictions of ENSO. Here, we show that the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) alternate in fueling this interannual wind from late boreal winter to austral winter in the presence of background trade winds in different hemispheres. During the boreal winter–spring, the NPO registers footprints in the tropics by benefiting from the Pacific meridional mode and modulating the northwestern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (NITCZ). However, as austral winter approaches, the SPO takes over the role of the NPO in maintaining the anomalous NITCZ. Moreover, the interannual wind is further driven to the east in the positive phase of the SPO, by intensified central-eastern equatorial Pacific convection resulting from tropical–extratropical heat flux adjustments. A reconstructed WCEP interannual wind index involving only the NPO and the SPO possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction of nearly one year. These two extratropical boosters enhance the viability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies associated with the large growth rate of ENSO, and the one in the winter hemisphere seems to be more efficient in forcing the tropics. Our result further indicates that the NPO benefits a long-lead prediction of the WCEP interannual wind and ENSO, while the SPO is the dominant extratropical predictor of ENSO amplitude.
Significance Statement
ENSO is closely linked to the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind, and ENSO prediction is impeded by the weak predictability of the wind. We have found that the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation take turns in affecting the interannual variability of the zonal wind from the late boreal winter to austral winter, and the winter hemisphere extratropical booster is more efficient in modulating tropical convection and the associated surface winds. An estimated zonal wind index constructed by the two extratropical precursors possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction. Our result provides useful information for better predicting ENSO by further considering winter hemisphere extratropical climate variability.
Abstract
The western-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) zonal wind affects El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by involving a series of multiscale air–sea interactions. Its interannual variation contributes the most to ENSO amplitude. Thus, understanding the predictability of the WCEP interannual wind is of great importance for better predictions of ENSO. Here, we show that the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) alternate in fueling this interannual wind from late boreal winter to austral winter in the presence of background trade winds in different hemispheres. During the boreal winter–spring, the NPO registers footprints in the tropics by benefiting from the Pacific meridional mode and modulating the northwestern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (NITCZ). However, as austral winter approaches, the SPO takes over the role of the NPO in maintaining the anomalous NITCZ. Moreover, the interannual wind is further driven to the east in the positive phase of the SPO, by intensified central-eastern equatorial Pacific convection resulting from tropical–extratropical heat flux adjustments. A reconstructed WCEP interannual wind index involving only the NPO and the SPO possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction of nearly one year. These two extratropical boosters enhance the viability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies associated with the large growth rate of ENSO, and the one in the winter hemisphere seems to be more efficient in forcing the tropics. Our result further indicates that the NPO benefits a long-lead prediction of the WCEP interannual wind and ENSO, while the SPO is the dominant extratropical predictor of ENSO amplitude.
Significance Statement
ENSO is closely linked to the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind, and ENSO prediction is impeded by the weak predictability of the wind. We have found that the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation take turns in affecting the interannual variability of the zonal wind from the late boreal winter to austral winter, and the winter hemisphere extratropical booster is more efficient in modulating tropical convection and the associated surface winds. An estimated zonal wind index constructed by the two extratropical precursors possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction. Our result provides useful information for better predicting ENSO by further considering winter hemisphere extratropical climate variability.
Abstract
Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation (P), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021; n = 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across Alaska, and during winter, spring, and autumn on the North Slope and North Panhandle (T2m > 0.50°C decade−1). Precipitation has also increased across climate divisions and appears strongly interrelated with temperature–sea ice feedbacks on the North Slope, specifically with increased (decreased) open water (sea ice extent). Snowfall equivalent (SFE) has decreased in autumn and spring, perhaps aligned with a regime transition of snow to rain, while winter SFE has broadly increased across the state. Sea ice decline and melt-season lengthening also have a pronounced signal around Alaska, with the largest trends in these parameters found in the Beaufort Sea. Alaska’s climatic changes are also placed in context against regional and contiguous U.S. air temperature trends and show ∼50% greater warming in Alaska relative to the lower-48 states. Alaska T2m increases also exceed those of any contiguous U.S. subregion, positioning Alaska at the forefront of U.S. climate warming.
Significance Statement
This study produces an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021) of key Alaska climate parameters, including air temperature, precipitation (including snowfall equivalent), and sea ice, to inform upcoming climate assessment reports, including the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) scheduled for publication in 2023. Key findings include widespread annual and seasonal warming with increased precipitation across much of the state. Winter snowfall has broadly increased, but spring and autumn snowfalls have decreased as rainfall increased. Autumn warming and precipitation increases over the North Slope, in particular, appear related to decreased sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Seas. These trends may result from interrelated processes that accelerate Alaska climate changes relative to those of the contiguous United States.
Abstract
Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation (P), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021; n = 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across Alaska, and during winter, spring, and autumn on the North Slope and North Panhandle (T2m > 0.50°C decade−1). Precipitation has also increased across climate divisions and appears strongly interrelated with temperature–sea ice feedbacks on the North Slope, specifically with increased (decreased) open water (sea ice extent). Snowfall equivalent (SFE) has decreased in autumn and spring, perhaps aligned with a regime transition of snow to rain, while winter SFE has broadly increased across the state. Sea ice decline and melt-season lengthening also have a pronounced signal around Alaska, with the largest trends in these parameters found in the Beaufort Sea. Alaska’s climatic changes are also placed in context against regional and contiguous U.S. air temperature trends and show ∼50% greater warming in Alaska relative to the lower-48 states. Alaska T2m increases also exceed those of any contiguous U.S. subregion, positioning Alaska at the forefront of U.S. climate warming.
Significance Statement
This study produces an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021) of key Alaska climate parameters, including air temperature, precipitation (including snowfall equivalent), and sea ice, to inform upcoming climate assessment reports, including the Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) scheduled for publication in 2023. Key findings include widespread annual and seasonal warming with increased precipitation across much of the state. Winter snowfall has broadly increased, but spring and autumn snowfalls have decreased as rainfall increased. Autumn warming and precipitation increases over the North Slope, in particular, appear related to decreased sea ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Seas. These trends may result from interrelated processes that accelerate Alaska climate changes relative to those of the contiguous United States.
Abstract
We investigate the land–ocean warming contrast mechanisms, ϕ, defined as the land-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change divided by the ocean-mean SAT change, in a transient climate response (TCR) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) 1% per year CO2 increase experiments (1pctCO2). The energy budget framework devised in Part I is applied to 15 CMIP6 1pctCO2 simulations, and the climate response in year 140 when the CO2 concentration was quadrupled was compared with a near-equilibrium climate response (NEQ), defined as the last 30-yr mean in the abrupt CO2 quadrupling (abrupt4×CO2) experiments. It is shown that ϕ is larger in TCR than in NEQ by approximately 4%, although the difference is not statistically significant. In TCR, effective radiative forcing is large over land compared to the ocean, and this is the main contributor to ϕ as in NEQ. The time evolution of ϕ in 1pctCO2 can be reconstructed by means of the fast and slow components of climate response in abrupt4×CO2, indicating that the essential mechanism for the land–ocean warming contrast shown in Part I applies to TCR. Furthermore, our analyses reveal a compensation between land-to-ocean atmospheric energy transport that decreases ϕ and ocean heat uptake that increases ϕ. Regardless of the time scale of the response, these two processes are linked by the change in atmospheric circulation, leading to the small combined effect. As a result, the multimodel mean ϕ in 1pctCO2 is roughly time invariant at approximately 1.5 despite the continuous increase in CO2.
Significance Statement
The land–ocean warming contrast, which indicates large land surface warming compared to ocean surface warming in response to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, is a striking feature of human-induced global warming. This study focuses on temporal changes in the magnitude of the land–ocean warming contrast in transient climate change simulations and shows that the magnitude of the land–ocean warming contrast is nearly constant over time, maintaining a ratio of approximately 1.5, between land and ocean surface warming. This small temporal change is explained mainly by a compensation between land-to-ocean energy transport and ocean heat uptake, because both act in opposite directions to the land–ocean warming contrast.
Abstract
We investigate the land–ocean warming contrast mechanisms, ϕ, defined as the land-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change divided by the ocean-mean SAT change, in a transient climate response (TCR) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) 1% per year CO2 increase experiments (1pctCO2). The energy budget framework devised in Part I is applied to 15 CMIP6 1pctCO2 simulations, and the climate response in year 140 when the CO2 concentration was quadrupled was compared with a near-equilibrium climate response (NEQ), defined as the last 30-yr mean in the abrupt CO2 quadrupling (abrupt4×CO2) experiments. It is shown that ϕ is larger in TCR than in NEQ by approximately 4%, although the difference is not statistically significant. In TCR, effective radiative forcing is large over land compared to the ocean, and this is the main contributor to ϕ as in NEQ. The time evolution of ϕ in 1pctCO2 can be reconstructed by means of the fast and slow components of climate response in abrupt4×CO2, indicating that the essential mechanism for the land–ocean warming contrast shown in Part I applies to TCR. Furthermore, our analyses reveal a compensation between land-to-ocean atmospheric energy transport that decreases ϕ and ocean heat uptake that increases ϕ. Regardless of the time scale of the response, these two processes are linked by the change in atmospheric circulation, leading to the small combined effect. As a result, the multimodel mean ϕ in 1pctCO2 is roughly time invariant at approximately 1.5 despite the continuous increase in CO2.
Significance Statement
The land–ocean warming contrast, which indicates large land surface warming compared to ocean surface warming in response to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, is a striking feature of human-induced global warming. This study focuses on temporal changes in the magnitude of the land–ocean warming contrast in transient climate change simulations and shows that the magnitude of the land–ocean warming contrast is nearly constant over time, maintaining a ratio of approximately 1.5, between land and ocean surface warming. This small temporal change is explained mainly by a compensation between land-to-ocean energy transport and ocean heat uptake, because both act in opposite directions to the land–ocean warming contrast.
Abstract
The impact of North Indian atmospheric diabatic heating variation on summer rainfall over Central Asia (CA) at an interannual scale during 1960–2019 was investigated from thermal adaptation and water vapor transportation perspective. The results showed that more precipitation in southeastern CA is associated with the southward subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), caused by the ascending motion and weakened water vapor output on the south side. When the SWJ moves southward, the high-level water vapor transportation on the south side changes from outward (−1.9 × 106 kg s−1) to inward (0.6 × 106 kg s−1), and the positive anomalous relative vorticity advections by the basic westerly winds produce ascending anomalies over southeastern CA. The position change in the SWJ was mainly related to atmospheric diabatic heating over northern India (NI). The thermal vorticity adaptation caused by a weakened heating rate over NI leads to an anomalous upper-level cyclone over southeastern CA, and the associated cold temperature advection eventually cools the upper troposphere of southeastern CA and reduces the temperature gradient at mid-to-high latitudes, leading to the southward SWJ. Thermal adaptation of the circulation and temperature anomaly over southeastern CA to the NI thermal forcing were also verified by numerical experiments. Both the abnormal ascending motions and the weakened outward water vapor associated with the southward SWJ, caused by the weakened heating rate over NI, lead to more summer rainfall in southeastern CA. The changes in diabatic heating over NI are closely related to Indian Ocean SST. When the Indian Ocean SST is warmer, the south Asian summer monsoon weakens, causing less precipitation and, thus, a weakened heating rate over NI.
Significance Statement
This study established that the northern Indian atmospheric diabatic heating anomalies associated with Indian Ocean SST variation play an important role in influencing precipitation in central Asia (CA). The weakening of the atmospheric diabatic heating over the NI would not only cause an abnormal cyclone and cooling over southern CA through thermal adaptation but also lead to southward subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), ascending motions, and decreased outward water vapor on the south side in southeastern CA, eventually resulting in more precipitation in southeastern CA. The results emphasize the influence of tropical SST and atmospheric heat sources on midlatitude climate and are important for understanding summer precipitation change in southeastern CA.
Abstract
The impact of North Indian atmospheric diabatic heating variation on summer rainfall over Central Asia (CA) at an interannual scale during 1960–2019 was investigated from thermal adaptation and water vapor transportation perspective. The results showed that more precipitation in southeastern CA is associated with the southward subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), caused by the ascending motion and weakened water vapor output on the south side. When the SWJ moves southward, the high-level water vapor transportation on the south side changes from outward (−1.9 × 106 kg s−1) to inward (0.6 × 106 kg s−1), and the positive anomalous relative vorticity advections by the basic westerly winds produce ascending anomalies over southeastern CA. The position change in the SWJ was mainly related to atmospheric diabatic heating over northern India (NI). The thermal vorticity adaptation caused by a weakened heating rate over NI leads to an anomalous upper-level cyclone over southeastern CA, and the associated cold temperature advection eventually cools the upper troposphere of southeastern CA and reduces the temperature gradient at mid-to-high latitudes, leading to the southward SWJ. Thermal adaptation of the circulation and temperature anomaly over southeastern CA to the NI thermal forcing were also verified by numerical experiments. Both the abnormal ascending motions and the weakened outward water vapor associated with the southward SWJ, caused by the weakened heating rate over NI, lead to more summer rainfall in southeastern CA. The changes in diabatic heating over NI are closely related to Indian Ocean SST. When the Indian Ocean SST is warmer, the south Asian summer monsoon weakens, causing less precipitation and, thus, a weakened heating rate over NI.
Significance Statement
This study established that the northern Indian atmospheric diabatic heating anomalies associated with Indian Ocean SST variation play an important role in influencing precipitation in central Asia (CA). The weakening of the atmospheric diabatic heating over the NI would not only cause an abnormal cyclone and cooling over southern CA through thermal adaptation but also lead to southward subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), ascending motions, and decreased outward water vapor on the south side in southeastern CA, eventually resulting in more precipitation in southeastern CA. The results emphasize the influence of tropical SST and atmospheric heat sources on midlatitude climate and are important for understanding summer precipitation change in southeastern CA.
Abstract
The Pacific meridional modes (PMMs) are the leading ocean–atmosphere coupled modes in the subtropical northeastern (NPMM) and southeastern (SPMM) Pacific, respectively, and have been suggested to be key precursors to equatorial Pacific variability. Previous studies pointed out that both NPMM- and SPMM-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are primarily driven by net surface heat flux variations during their equatorward evolution. However, whether oceanic heat advective processes would play a role during the evolution remains unclear. To address this issue, we perform an ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis based on observations and three ocean reanalysis datasets, and then reveal the effect of ocean advections on the evolution by comparing a fully coupled dynamic ocean model (DOM) to a slab ocean model (SOM). Our results suggest that for the NPMM evolution, ocean advections—primarily by anomalous meridional Ekman heat advections driven by mean and anomalous zonal wind stresses—play a damping role in the south of the NPMM. Thus, the NPMM SST anomalies appear to instead exhibit a poleward shift, although still freely propagating westward from the preceding boreal winter to the following summer. This finding challenges the traditional view that the NPMM propagates equatorward through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. For the SPMM evolution, ocean advections play a damping role in the center of the SPMM from boreal spring to summer, as well as an intensification role in the southwest Pacific during summer. However, the effect of the intensification on the SPMM evolution is hard to determine due to the strong simulation bias of the SPMM evolution in the DOM.
Significance Statement
While it is known that both NPMM- and SPMM-associated SST anomalies are primarily driven by net surface heat flux variations during their evolution, whether ocean advections would play a role remains unknown. Here, we show that ocean advections play a role in the evolution of both PMMs. In particular, for the NPMM evolution, ocean advections play a damping role in the south of the NPMM center, causing a tendency for the NPMM to be displaced northward. The role of ocean advection challenges the prevailing notion that the NPMM simply evolves equatorward through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback.
Abstract
The Pacific meridional modes (PMMs) are the leading ocean–atmosphere coupled modes in the subtropical northeastern (NPMM) and southeastern (SPMM) Pacific, respectively, and have been suggested to be key precursors to equatorial Pacific variability. Previous studies pointed out that both NPMM- and SPMM-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are primarily driven by net surface heat flux variations during their equatorward evolution. However, whether oceanic heat advective processes would play a role during the evolution remains unclear. To address this issue, we perform an ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis based on observations and three ocean reanalysis datasets, and then reveal the effect of ocean advections on the evolution by comparing a fully coupled dynamic ocean model (DOM) to a slab ocean model (SOM). Our results suggest that for the NPMM evolution, ocean advections—primarily by anomalous meridional Ekman heat advections driven by mean and anomalous zonal wind stresses—play a damping role in the south of the NPMM. Thus, the NPMM SST anomalies appear to instead exhibit a poleward shift, although still freely propagating westward from the preceding boreal winter to the following summer. This finding challenges the traditional view that the NPMM propagates equatorward through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. For the SPMM evolution, ocean advections play a damping role in the center of the SPMM from boreal spring to summer, as well as an intensification role in the southwest Pacific during summer. However, the effect of the intensification on the SPMM evolution is hard to determine due to the strong simulation bias of the SPMM evolution in the DOM.
Significance Statement
While it is known that both NPMM- and SPMM-associated SST anomalies are primarily driven by net surface heat flux variations during their evolution, whether ocean advections would play a role remains unknown. Here, we show that ocean advections play a role in the evolution of both PMMs. In particular, for the NPMM evolution, ocean advections play a damping role in the south of the NPMM center, causing a tendency for the NPMM to be displaced northward. The role of ocean advection challenges the prevailing notion that the NPMM simply evolves equatorward through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback.
Abstract
The Southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) is a major region where many low-latitude glaciers are located, with spring precipitation being a major input of the glacier mass balance. This study shows that early spring precipitation has decreased significantly since 1999, which is attributed to declined moisture contribution from the far-field sources (west of 70°E) induced by the weakened subtropical westerlies. The possible physical mechanism underlying this change has also been revealed. It is found that snow-cover extent (SCE) in March reduced in midlatitude Eurasia after 1999; meanwhile, strong solar radiation during this month may have exacerbated snow melting through snow albedo–radiation interactions. These two processes led to warming and caused a strong anticyclone over midlatitude Eurasia that weakened the subtropical westerlies near 30°N. This decadal change in the subtropical westerlies led to a decrease in moisture transport upstream. As a result, the windward slopes of large terrain along the latitudinal belt near 30°N received less precipitation, and the decrease in SETP precipitation was part of this change. A further analysis shows that the positive correlation between the westerlies and precipitation has weakened since 1999.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to reveal the decreased early spring precipitation and explore its possible physical mechanism in the Southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP), which is crucial to understand the shrinkage of the local glacier. Our results indicate that the reduction of snow cover in midlatitude Eurasia since 1999 and the strong solar radiation in March contributed to the weakening subtropical westerlies, which further resulted in the decreasing precipitation in the SETP and other windward slopes of large terrain along the latitudinal 30°N belt in Eurasia.
Abstract
The Southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP) is a major region where many low-latitude glaciers are located, with spring precipitation being a major input of the glacier mass balance. This study shows that early spring precipitation has decreased significantly since 1999, which is attributed to declined moisture contribution from the far-field sources (west of 70°E) induced by the weakened subtropical westerlies. The possible physical mechanism underlying this change has also been revealed. It is found that snow-cover extent (SCE) in March reduced in midlatitude Eurasia after 1999; meanwhile, strong solar radiation during this month may have exacerbated snow melting through snow albedo–radiation interactions. These two processes led to warming and caused a strong anticyclone over midlatitude Eurasia that weakened the subtropical westerlies near 30°N. This decadal change in the subtropical westerlies led to a decrease in moisture transport upstream. As a result, the windward slopes of large terrain along the latitudinal belt near 30°N received less precipitation, and the decrease in SETP precipitation was part of this change. A further analysis shows that the positive correlation between the westerlies and precipitation has weakened since 1999.
Significance Statement
The purpose of this study is to reveal the decreased early spring precipitation and explore its possible physical mechanism in the Southeast Tibetan Plateau (SETP), which is crucial to understand the shrinkage of the local glacier. Our results indicate that the reduction of snow cover in midlatitude Eurasia since 1999 and the strong solar radiation in March contributed to the weakening subtropical westerlies, which further resulted in the decreasing precipitation in the SETP and other windward slopes of large terrain along the latitudinal 30°N belt in Eurasia.
