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Laura Fischer
,
David Huntsman
,
Ginger Orton
, and
Jeannette Sutton

Abstract

A long-term goal for warning message designers is to determine the most effective type of message that can instruct individuals to act quickly and prevent loss of life and/or injury when faced with an imminent threat. One likely way to increase an individual’s behavioral intent to act when they are faced with risk information is to provide protective action information or guidance. This study investigated participant perceptions (understanding, believing, personalizing, deciding, milling, self-efficacy, and response-efficacy) in response to the National Weather Service’s experimental product Twitter messages for three hazard types (tornado, snow squall, dust storm), with each message varying by inclusion and presentation of protective action information placed in the tweet text and the visual graphic. We also examine the role of prior hazard warning experience on message perception outcomes. To examine the effects, the experiment used a between-subjects design where participants were randomly assigned to one hazard type and received one of four warning messages. Participants then took a post-test measuring message perceptions, efficacy levels, prior hazard warning experience, and demographics. The results showed that for each hazard and prior hazard experience level, messages with protective action guidance in both the text and graphic increase their understanding, belief, ability to decide, self-, and response-efficacy. These results reinforce the idea that well-designed messages, that include protective action guidance, work well regardless of hazard type or hazard warning experience.

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Rosario Carmona
,
Francisca Carril
, and
Rocío Yon

Abstract

Indigenous Peoples' advocacy has enabled them to position themselves in global debates on climate change. Although the international community progressively acknowledges Indigenous Peoples' contributions to climate action, their effective recognition in national climate governance remains marginal. This article analyses Indigenous Peoples' recognition in the climate governance of Latin American states based on the document analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted between 2016 and March 2022. A content analysis and frequency analysis was conducted on thirty documents. Mentions related to Indigenous Peoples in the NDCs are increasing; nevertheless, this recognition reproduces the multicultural approach that has characterised Latin American states' legislations and thereby undermines the coherence of climate policy. The references mainly allude to cultural diversity and climatic vulnerability without addressing the ongoing territorial conflicts that mediate the relationship between Indigenous Peoples and states. Nor do the NDCs recognise the right of Indigenous Peoples to participate at the different levels of climate change decision-making processes. Intercultural recognition of Indigenous Peoples and better standards of participation in climate change governance are mandatory. However, States must first promote institutional transformations to address the historical and institutional factors that have produced Indigenous Peoples' climate vulnerability and generate the necessary mechanisms to implement the recognition committed to in the NDCs.

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Jihad Ait Soussane
,
Dalal Mansouri
,
Mohamed Yassine Fakhouri
, and
Zahra Mansouri

Abstract

In this paper, we study the role of climate change as a financial risk for foreign investors. Multinational enterprises seek to internationalize where financial risk is at the minimum level, including the climate change risk on profitability and productivity. Thereby, we conducted an empirical analysis of the effect of climate change on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows using data from 200 countries and times series from 1970 to 2020 and employing two categories of climate change indicators: Climatology and climate-related natural hazards. Using the estimation methods of fully modified ordinary least squares and robust weighted least squares, we concluded that the rise of climatology indicators (mean annual temperature and precipitations) negatively impacts inward FDI. Second, we conclude that most climate-related natural hazards (coastal/rural/urban floods, landslides, and cyclones) deter FDI while extreme heat and wildfires show no significant effect. In addition, the results show that the negative impact of climate change is more severe when the host economy depends on agricultural activities and there is no significant investment in research and development as compared with countries that depend on service and manufacturing activities and are more innovative and invest in technology infrastructure. Furthermore, we conclude that poorer host countries experience more severe effects of climate change on FDI than rich countries in terms of GDP per capita.

Significance Statement

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of climate change on inflows of cross-border capital in 200 countries. In other words, we see if rising temperature and natural hazards related to climate change affect the decision of firms to invest in a given country. The results show that global warming and unstable meteorological indicators deter firms from investing abroad. Equally, natural hazards linked to climate change (coastal/rural/urban floods, landslides, and cyclones) constitute an investment risk. The finding suggests that the deterring effects of climate change are less severe when a given country depends less on agriculture and more on industrial sectors and when that country is more developed and technologically advanced.

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Nicola Ulibarri
,
Claudia Valencia-Uribe
,
Brett F. Sanders
,
Jochen Schubert
,
Richard Matthew
,
Fonna Forman
,
Maura Allaire
, and
David Brady

Abstract

This paper develops the concept of flood problem framing to understand decision-makers’ priorities in flood risk management in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region in California (LA Metro). Problem frames shape an individual’s preferences for particular management strategies and their future behaviors. While flooding is a complex, multifaceted problem, with multiple causes and multiple impacts, a decision-maker is most likely to manage only those dimensions of flooding about which they are aware or concerned. To evaluate flood decision-makers’ primary concerns related to flood exposure, vulnerability, and management in the LA Metro, we draw on focus groups with flood control districts, city planners, nonprofit organizations, and other flood-related decision-makers. We identify numerous concerns, including concerns about specific types of floods (e.g., fluvial vs pluvial) and impacts to diverse infrastructure and communities. Our analyses demonstrate that flood concerns aggregate into three problem frames: one concerned with large fluvial floods exacerbated by climate change and their housing, economic, and infrastructure impacts; one concerned with pluvial nuisance flooding, pollution, and historic underinvestment in communities; and one concerned with coastal and fluvial flooding’s ecosystem impacts. While each individual typically articulated concerns that overlapped with only one problem frame, each problem frame was discussed by numerous organization types, suggesting low barriers to cross-organizational coordination in flood planning and response. This paper also advances our understanding of flood risk perception in a region that does not face frequent large floods.

Significance Statement

This paper investigates the primary concerns that planners, flood managers, and other decision-makers have about flooding in Southern California. This is important because the way that decision-makers understand flooding shapes the way that they will plan for and respond to flood events. We find that some decision-makers are primarily concerned with large floods affecting large swaths of infrastructure and housing; others are concerned with frequent, small floods that mobilize pollution in low-income areas; and others are concerned with protecting coastal ecosystems during sea level rise. Our results also highlight key priorities for research and practice, including the need for flexible and accessible flood data and education about how to evacuate.

Open access
Michael D. Smith
,
John E. Ten Hoeve
,
Christopher Lauer
, and
Vankita Brown

Abstract

NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) provides forecasts, warnings, and decision support to the public for the protection of life and property. The NWS Weather Ready Nation model describes the process of applying weather information to achieve societal value. However, it is not clear how different racial and socioeconomic groups across the United States receive, understand, and act upon the weather information supplied under this model. There may be barriers that keep important, life-saving information from the populations at the highest risk of severe weather impacts. This paper estimates the extent of racial and socioeconomic disparities in severe weather risk information reception, comprehension, response, and trust, as well as severe weather preparedness and risk perceptions in the United States. We use data from the University of Oklahoma’s Severe Weather and Society Survey which is annually completed by a sample of 3,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) that is designed to match the characteristics of the U.S. population. We pool data over four years (2017-2020) to provide reliable severe weather risk prevalence statistics for adults by race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic characteristics. As a robustness check, we supplement this information with data from the FEMA Annual Household Survey. We find that racial and socioeconomic groups receive, understand, trust, and act upon severe weather information differently. These findings suggest NWS and their partners adjust their communication strategies to ensure all populations receive and understand actionable severe weather information.

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Julia Teebken
,
Nicole Mitchell
,
Klaus Jacob
, and
Thorsten Heimann

Abstract

Climate change adaptation planning and implementation have proliferated over the past years. However, we still lack an understanding of how society adapts itself outside of policy sectors and as part of what some refer to as “autonomous adaptation”. The way people respond to risk without deliberate interventions of public actors is not well-understood. Given the increasing occurrence of climatic changes that affect our daily lives, the topic is regaining attention with an emphasis on behavioral adaptation. This angle, however, does little to enhance our understanding of how society adapts collectively, and which practices and routines groups choose to adopt.

This study investigates autonomous heat stress adaptation efforts in two small towns in Germany. Autonomous heat stress adaptation is approached through a lens of (social) adaptation practices. Small towns are understudied in adaptation research and have also played an only minor role when it comes to public adaptation planning, due to their lack of formal resources to develop public adaptation strategies. Based on empirical data, consisting of qualitative problem-centered interviews and a quantitative survey, concrete examples of (social) adaptation practices are identified and classified.

The presented classification of practices goes beyond earlier attempts by generating insights on the role politics can play in providing a fruitful ground for enabling autonomous adaptation. The paper emphasizes the need for researchers and decision-makers to take a closer look at the wide variety of social adaptation practices already in place. This discloses insights on public-private adaptation mixes, which could ultimately also lift autonomous adaptation from its ad-hoc and reactive nature.

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Chongming Wang
,
Erin Rider
,
Scott Manning
,
Jacob Fast
, and
Tanveer Islam

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Residents in the Southeast region of the United States are frequently threatened by tornadoes. Previous research indicates that it is important to study the experience of tornado victims to better understand individual risk perception, preparedness, protective action, response, and recovery strategies that contribute to overall community resilience. In this study, we employ an oral history approach and analyze the lived experience of an EF-3 tornado survivors in Jacksonville, Alabama. Using snowball sampling, we conducted in-depth interviews of 25 residents of Jacksonville, Alabama who experienced the EF-3 tornado on March 19, 2018. The recorded interviews were then analyzed using qualitative software. Most of the participants described the support system and the range of resources accessible through the network of relations as the critical factors that facilitated recovery and contributed to resilience. The majority also emphasized the importance of being prepared and being proactive when addressing future storms, but some of their actions at times revealed that they were also used to being reactive. Also, the participants were either long-term residents (homeowners) or transient college students (renters), and the data gave insight into different recovery paths and challenges. Further, findings revealed ongoing trauma and recovery challenges due to the extensive, unexpected damage and lack of temporary housing and contractor availability often associated with rural, small towns. This research aims to provide a scientific basis for improved efforts in preparedness and protective actions as well as in response and recovery strategies in tornado events and for identifying factors of community resilience in tornado-prone areas.

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Michelle E. Saunders
,
Kevin D. Ash
,
Jennifer M. Collins
, and
Rebecca E. Morss

Abstract

A radar display is a tool that depicts meteorological data over space and time, therefore, an individual must think spatially and temporally in addition to drawing on their own meteorological knowledge and past weather experiences. We aimed to understand how the construal of situational risks and outcomes influences the perceived usefulness of a radar display and to explore how radar users interpret distance, time, and meteorological attributes using hypothetical scenarios in the Tampa Bay area (Florida). Ultimately, we wanted to understand how and why individuals use weather radar and to discover what makes it a useful tool. To do this, Construal Level Theory and geospatial thinking guided the mixed methods used in this study to investigate four research objectives. Our findings show that radar is used most often by our participants to anticipate what will happen in the near future in their area. Participants described in their own words what they were viewing while using a radar display and reported what hazards they expected at the study location. Many participants associated the occurrence of lightning or strong winds with ‘red’ and ‘orange’ reflectivity values on a radar display. Participants provided valuable insight about what was and wasn’t found useful about certain radar displays. We also found that most participants overestimated the amount of time they would have before precipitation would begin at their location. Overall, weather radar was found to be a very useful tool, however, judging spatial and temporal proximity became difficult when storm motion/direction was not easily identifiable.

Open access
Phil Lignier
,
Diane Jarvis
,
Daniel Grainger
, and
Taha Chaiechi

Abstract

It is now widely acknowledged that climate change will have a considerable impact on various aspects of human existence, and this includes happiness and satisfaction with life. This study adds to the existing literature on the contribution of climate to wellbeing by exploring the interaction of various climate variables at the national and local levels while controlling for socio-economic factors. Using climate data covering a 20-year period and demographic data from the Household Income Labour Dynamics in Australia surveys, several OLS models of interaction are developed to test the proposition that climate does influence life satisfaction. Geographically Weighted Regression is then applied to explore how the relationship between explanatory variables and life satisfaction varies across different regions of Australia. We find that overall rainfall, temperature, and sunshine have a small but significant effect on individual life satisfaction.The spatial analysis reveals a high level of non-stationarity in the way climate variables impact life satisfaction, suggesting that regional climate type may be an important element influencing the relationship. The understanding of this relationship may assist policy makers who develop resilience and adaptation strategies as we face the impacts of climate change.

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Liutong Chen
,
Qian Li
, and
Yingjun Xu

Abstract

Flash flood disasters pose a constant threat to socioeconomic factors in southeastern China. This study analyzes the risk change of flash floods in the Yantanxi River basin, southeastern China, under five economic scenarios [shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5]. We built a regional flash flood hazard assessment model by combining hydrological and hydrodynamic models with fieldwork. Asset value was used to represent regional exposure, which was spatialized using data from industrial structure and land use. Flash flood risk assessment influenced by economic change was developed using different industry responses to flash floods. The results clarify how economic factors drive flash flood risk changes. The return period of the 2019 flash flood in the Yantanxi River basin is 150 years. In 2019, flash floods affected 5.04% of the river basin; the inundation depth was concentrated at under 2.00 m, resulting in CNY 0.55 billion in economic damage. With economic change, the flash flood risk increases by 91.34% (SSP2—current economic development level) and 94.39% (SSP5—extreme economic development level). This study emphasizes the balance between economic development and disaster management at the river basin scale; in addition, our method provides a reference for risk assessment in flash-flood-prone areas lacking statistical information.

Significance Statement

The mountainous and hilly areas of southeastern China are vulnerable to flash floods, and the region faces a constant threat from flash flood disasters. The analysis of historical flash flood disaster events is a critical step in understanding the current rank of the disaster risk and its changes over time. The Supertyphoon Lekima–extreme precipitation–flash flood chain effects resulted in severe economic damage and casualties within the Yantanxi River basin, Zhejiang Province, in August 2019, thus raising concerns about the characteristics of flash floods within the region. The study results highlight the importance of flood risk management in regional adaptation strategies and provide new information for regional planning and the construction of flood control facilities.

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