Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 201 items for :

  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society x
  • Refine by Access: All Content x
Clear All
Machiel Lamers
,
Gita Ljubicic
,
Rick Thoman
,
Jorge Carrasco
,
Jackie Dawson
,
Victoria J. Heinrich
,
Jelmer Jeuring
,
Daniela Liggett
, and
Emma J. Stewart

Abstract

The Polar Prediction Project (PPP), one of the flagship programs of the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), has come to an end after a decade of intensive and coordinated international observing, modeling, verification, user engagement, and education activities. While PPP facilitated many advancements in modeling and forecasting, critical investment is now required to turn prediction science into salient environmental services for the polar regions. In this commentary, the members of the Societal and Economic Research and Applications task team of PPP, a group of social scientists and service delivery specialists, identify a number of insights and lessons that are critical for the implementation of the follow-up program Polar Coupled Analysis and Prediction for Services (PCAPS). We argue that in order to raise the societal value of polar environmental services, we need to better understand the diversity of highly specific user contexts; to tailor the actionability of weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) service development in the polar regions through inclusive transdisciplinary approaches to coproduction; to assess the societal impact of improved environmental services in the polar regions; and to invest and provide dedicated funding for involving the social sciences in research and tailoring processes across all the polar regions.

Open access
Xin-Zhong Liang
,
Drew Gower
,
Jennifer A. Kennedy
,
Melissa Kenney
,
Michael C. Maddox
,
Michael Gerst
,
Guillermo Balboa
,
Talon Becker
,
Ximing Cai
,
Roger Elmore
,
Wei Gao
,
Yufeng He
,
Kang Liang
,
Shane Lotton
,
Leena Malayil
,
Megan L. Matthews
,
Alison M. Meadow
,
Christopher M. U. Neale
,
Greg Newman
,
Amy Rebecca Sapkota
,
Sanghoon Shin
,
Jonathan Straube
,
Chao Sun
,
You Wu
,
Yun Yang
, and
Xuesong Zhang

Abstract

Climate change presents huge challenges to the already-complex decisions faced by U.S. agricultural producers, as seasonal weather patterns increasingly deviate from historical tendencies. Under USDA funding, a transdisciplinary team of researchers, extension experts, educators, and stakeholders is developing a climate decision support Dashboard for Agricultural Water use and Nutrient management (DAWN) to provide Corn Belt farmers with better predictive information. DAWN’s goal is to provide credible, usable information to support decisions by creating infrastructure to make subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts accessible. DAWN uses an integrated approach to 1) engage stakeholders to coproduce a decision support and information delivery system; 2) build a coupled modeling system to represent and transfer holistic systems knowledge into effective tools; 3) produce reliable forecasts to help stakeholders optimize crop productivity and environmental quality; and 4) integrate research and extension into experiential, transdisciplinary education. This article presents DAWN’s framework for integrating climate–agriculture research, extension, and education to bridge science and service. We also present key challenges to the creation and delivery of decision support, specifically in infrastructure development, coproduction and trust building with stakeholders, product design, effective communication, and moving tools toward use.

Open access
D. D. Turner
,
L. Ott
,
P. F. Steblein
,
M. Stieglitz
,
O. Tweedy
,
J. Furman
, and
C. S. James

Abstract

The size, duration, impact, and cost of wildland fire is increasing over the last several decades. A recent Interagency Council for Advancing Meteorological Services (ICAMS)-sponsored workshop focused on the scientific questions and challenges associated with subseasonal-to-seasonal wildfire outlooks. Opinions from this workshop, including recommended cross-agency motivation and activities, are provided.

Open access
Francina Dominguez
,
Roy Rasmussen
,
Changhai Liu
,
Kyoko Ikeda
,
Andreas Prein
,
Adam Varble
,
Paola A. Arias
,
Julio Bacmeister
,
Maria Laura Bettolli
,
Patrick Callaghan
,
Leila M. V. Carvalho
,
Christopher L. Castro
,
Fei Chen
,
Divyansh Chug
,
Kwok Pan (Sun) Chun
,
Aiguo Dai
,
Luminita Danaila
,
Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha
,
Ernani de Lima Nascimento
,
Erin Dougherty
,
Jimy Dudhia
,
Trude Eidhammer
,
Zhe Feng
,
Lluís Fita
,
Rong Fu
,
Julian Giles
,
Harriet Gilmour
,
Kate Halladay
,
Yongjie Huang
,
Angela Maylee Iza Wong
,
Miguel Ángel Lagos-Zúñiga
,
Charles Jones
,
Jorge Llamocca
,
Marta Llopart
,
J. Alejandro Martinez
,
J. Carlos Martinez
,
Justin R. Minder
,
Monica Morrison
,
Zachary L. Moon
,
Ye Mu
,
Richard B. Neale
,
Kelly M. Núñez Ocasio
,
Sujan Pal
,
Erin Potter
,
German Poveda
,
Franciano Puhales
,
Kristen L. Rasmussen
,
Amanda Rehbein
,
Rosimar Rios-Berrios
,
Christoforus Bayu Risanto
,
Alan Rosales
,
Lucia Scaff
,
Anton Seimon
,
Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela
,
Yang Tian
,
Peter Van Oevelen
,
Daniel Veloso-Aguila
,
Lulin Xue
, and
Timothy Schneider
Open access
Hiroaki Miura
,
Tamaki Suematsu
,
Yuta Kawai
,
Yoko Yamagami
,
Daisuke Takasuka
,
Yuki Takano
,
Ching-Shu Hung
,
Kazuya Yamazaki
,
Chihiro Kodama
,
Yoshiyuki Kajikawa
, and
Yukio Masumoto

Abstract

The Deep Numerical Analysis for Climate (DNA-Climate) is a pilot project to develop an Earth system model on a kilometer-scale horizontal mesh. The acronym “DNA” is based on the analogies between the hierarchical structures of atmospheric phenomena and living organisms. The multiscale structure of clouds and circulations may be analogous to the multiscale structure of cells and organs organized according to the blueprint, deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA). Whereas global cloud-resolving models (CRMs) can produce better solutions on shorter time scales that are decisively governed by the initial conditions, global climate models (GCMs) may generate reliable solutions on longer time scales that are largely determined to balance energy inputs and outputs. Our challenge is to build a physically valid model that consistently bridges the shorter- and longer-time-scale solutions in the intermediate time scales. Research topics of DNA-Climate are configured in consideration of the structural similarity between the climate modeling and the technique of matched asymptotic expansions in mathematics. The central question is whether a single modeling framework using only either global CRM or GCM will work adequately at all time scales of climate, or whether a multiscale modeling framework combining several models, of which each is only valid for limited time scales, will be needed. A multiscale modeling is an attractive framework for advancing climate modeling and would be an intriguing topic to be studied in parallel with global CRMs and GCMs.

Open access
Allison Scott Pruitt
,
Cam Brinkworth
, and
Kristen Luna Aponte

Abstract

Atmospheric science is male dominated and few students of color matriculate into the field, a trend dating back at least 50 years. UCAR/NCAR Equity and Inclusion (referred to as UNEION), which has trained nearly 200 employees, is the institution’s flagship diversity program. UNEION is central to efforts to create a welcoming workplace, engaging participants with peer-led learning to gain knowledge on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) topics, and encouraging participants to implement these learnings through bystander intervention. Evaluation results show that UNEION 1) increases participants’ awareness of inequities, 2) encourages participants to feel responsible for DEI, and 3) teaches participants how to intervene in inappropriate situations.

Open access
Jonathan D. W. Kahl

Abstract

Adapted from the sports concept of scorigami, the weathergami chart is introduced. Weathergami charts depict the frequency of occurrence of the full range of daily maximum and minimum temperature combinations observed at a location. These charts highlight essential features of climate not evident in traditional representations. A variation of the weathergami chart displays transition frequencies, which describe the likelihood of particular day-to-day changes in maximum and minimum temperatures. Likewise, weathergami anomaly charts reveal characteristics of changing climate not evident in standard time series representations. Several examples are provided, with comparisons to climate descriptions found in popular textbooks.

Open access
Thomas N. Nipen
,
Roland B. Stull
,
Cristian Lussana
, and
Ivar A. Seierstad

Abstract

Verif is an open-source tool for verifying weather predictions against a ground truth. It is suitable for a range of applications and designed for iterative product development involving fine-tuning of algorithms, comparing methods, and addressing scientific issues with the product. The tool generates verification plots based on user-supplied input files containing predictions and observations for multiple point-locations, forecast lead times, and forecast initialization times. It supports over 90 verification metrics and diagrams and can evaluate deterministic and probabilistic predictions. An extensive set of command-line flags control how the input data are aggregated, filtered, stratified, and visualized. The broad range of metrics and data manipulation options allows the user to gain insight from both summary scores and detailed time series of individual weather events. Verif is suitable for many applications, including assessing numerical weather prediction models, climate models, reanalyses, machine learning models, and even the fidelity of emerging observational sources. The tool has matured through long-term development at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the University of British Columbia. Verif comes with an extensive wiki page and example input files covering a wide range of prediction applications, allowing students and researchers interested in verification to get hands-on experience with real-life datasets. This article describes the functionality of Verif version 1.3 and shows how the tool can be used for effective product development.

Open access
Keith L. Seitter

Abstract

It is common when speaking colloquially to describe climate as the average weather, which implies weather is the driver and climatic averages are a passive by-product of it, but it is useful to reframe this toward weather being the “expression” of climate. That is, a region’s climate defines the range of weather it might experience (including the extent and frequency of extremes). In this framing, weather is driven by a region’s climate. A changing climate then, necessarily, is experienced as a change in local weather events—often most visibly through changes in the extent or frequency of extreme weather.

Open access
Brian A. Colle
,
Julia R. Hathaway
,
Elizabeth J. Bojsza
,
Josef M. Moses
,
Shadya J. Sanders
,
Katherine E. Rowan
,
Abigail L. Hils
,
Elizabeth C. Duesterhoeft
,
Saeed Boorboor
,
Arie E. Kaufman
, and
Susan E. Brennan

Abstract

Many factors shape public perceptions of extreme weather risk; understanding these factors is important to encourage preparedness. This article describes a novel workshop designed to encourage individual and community decision-making about predicted storm surge flooding. Over 160 U.S. college students participated in this 4-h experience. Distinctive features included 1) two kinds of visualizations, standard weather forecasting graphics versus 3D computer graphics visualization; 2) narrative about a fictitious storm, role-play, and guided discussion of participants’ concerns; and 3) use of an “ethical matrix,” a collective decision-making tool that elicits diverse perspectives based on the lived experiences of diverse stakeholders. Participants experienced a narrative about a hurricane with potential for devastating storm surge flooding on a fictitious coastal college campus. They answered survey questions before, at key points during, and after the narrative, interspersed with forecasts leading to predicted storm landfall. During facilitated breakout groups, participants role-played characters and filled out an ethical matrix. Discussing the matrix encouraged consideration of circumstances impacting evacuation decisions. Participants’ comments suggest several components may have influenced perceptions of personal risk, risks to others, the importance of monitoring weather, and preparing for emergencies. Surprisingly, no differences between the standard forecast graphics versus the immersive, hyperlocal visualizations were detected. Overall, participants’ comments indicate the workshop increased appreciation of others’ evacuation and preparation challenges.

Open access