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Abstract
It has been over 75 years since the concept of directly suppressing lightning by modifying thunderstorm cloud processes was first proposed as a technique for preventing wildfire ignitions. Subsequent decades produced a series of successful field campaigns that demonstrated several techniques for interrupting storm electrification, motivated in part by the prospect of protecting Apollo-era rocket launches from lightning strike. Despite the technical success of these research programs, funding and interest diminished until the final field experiment in 1975 marked the last large-scale activity toward developing lightning prevention technology. Having lost widespread awareness over the ensuing 50 years, these pioneering efforts in experimental cloud physics have largely been forgotten, and this approach for mitigating lightning hazards has fallen into obscurity. At the present day, risks from lightning-ignited wildfires to lives, property, and infrastructure are once again a major topic of concern. Similarly, the rapid development of an emerging commercial space sector is placing new demands on airspace management and launch scheduling. These modern challenges may potentially be addressed by a seemingly antiquated concept—lightning suppression—but considerations must be made to understand the consequences of deploying this technology. Nonetheless, the possible economic, environmental, and societal benefits of this approach merit a critical reevaluation of this hazard mitigation technology in the current era.
Abstract
It has been over 75 years since the concept of directly suppressing lightning by modifying thunderstorm cloud processes was first proposed as a technique for preventing wildfire ignitions. Subsequent decades produced a series of successful field campaigns that demonstrated several techniques for interrupting storm electrification, motivated in part by the prospect of protecting Apollo-era rocket launches from lightning strike. Despite the technical success of these research programs, funding and interest diminished until the final field experiment in 1975 marked the last large-scale activity toward developing lightning prevention technology. Having lost widespread awareness over the ensuing 50 years, these pioneering efforts in experimental cloud physics have largely been forgotten, and this approach for mitigating lightning hazards has fallen into obscurity. At the present day, risks from lightning-ignited wildfires to lives, property, and infrastructure are once again a major topic of concern. Similarly, the rapid development of an emerging commercial space sector is placing new demands on airspace management and launch scheduling. These modern challenges may potentially be addressed by a seemingly antiquated concept—lightning suppression—but considerations must be made to understand the consequences of deploying this technology. Nonetheless, the possible economic, environmental, and societal benefits of this approach merit a critical reevaluation of this hazard mitigation technology in the current era.
Abstract
Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.
Abstract
Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.
Abstract
Difficulty in using observations to isolate the impacts of aerosols from meteorology on deep convection often stems from the inability to resolve the spatiotemporal variations in the environment serving as the storm’s inflow region. During the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Tracking Aerosol Convection interactions Experiment (TRACER) in June–September 2022, a Texas A&M University (TAMU) team conducted a mobile field campaign to characterize the meteorological and aerosol variability in air masses that serve as inflow to convection across the ubiquitous mesoscale boundaries associated with the sea and bay breezes in the Houston, Texas, region. These boundaries propagate inland over the fixed DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. However, convection occurs on either or both the continental or maritime sides or along the boundary. The maritime and continental air masses serving as convection inflow may be quite distinct, with different meteorological and aerosol characteristics that fixed-site measurements cannot simultaneously sample. Thus, a primary objective of TAMU TRACER was to provide mobile measurements similar to those at the fixed sites, but in the opposite air mass across these moving mesoscale boundaries. TAMU TRACER collected radiosonde, lidar, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particle (INP) measurements on 29 enhanced operations days covering a variety of maritime, continental, outflow, and prefrontal air masses. This paper summarizes the TAMU TRACER deployment and measurement strategy, instruments, and available datasets and provides sample cases highlighting differences between these mobile measurements and those made at the ARM sites. We also highlight the exceptional TAMU TRACER undergraduate student participation in high-impact learning activities through forecasting and field deployment opportunities.
Abstract
Difficulty in using observations to isolate the impacts of aerosols from meteorology on deep convection often stems from the inability to resolve the spatiotemporal variations in the environment serving as the storm’s inflow region. During the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Tracking Aerosol Convection interactions Experiment (TRACER) in June–September 2022, a Texas A&M University (TAMU) team conducted a mobile field campaign to characterize the meteorological and aerosol variability in air masses that serve as inflow to convection across the ubiquitous mesoscale boundaries associated with the sea and bay breezes in the Houston, Texas, region. These boundaries propagate inland over the fixed DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. However, convection occurs on either or both the continental or maritime sides or along the boundary. The maritime and continental air masses serving as convection inflow may be quite distinct, with different meteorological and aerosol characteristics that fixed-site measurements cannot simultaneously sample. Thus, a primary objective of TAMU TRACER was to provide mobile measurements similar to those at the fixed sites, but in the opposite air mass across these moving mesoscale boundaries. TAMU TRACER collected radiosonde, lidar, aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particle (INP) measurements on 29 enhanced operations days covering a variety of maritime, continental, outflow, and prefrontal air masses. This paper summarizes the TAMU TRACER deployment and measurement strategy, instruments, and available datasets and provides sample cases highlighting differences between these mobile measurements and those made at the ARM sites. We also highlight the exceptional TAMU TRACER undergraduate student participation in high-impact learning activities through forecasting and field deployment opportunities.
Abstract
This study explores gulf-breeze circulations (GBCs) and bay-breeze circulations (BBCs) in Houston–Galveston, investigating their characteristics, large-scale weather influences, and impacts on surface properties, boundary layer updrafts, and convective clouds. The results are derived from a combination of datasets, including satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and reanalysis datasets, using machine learning, changepoint detection method, and Lagrangian cell tracking. We find that anticyclonic synoptic patterns during the summer months (June–September) favor GBC/BBC formation and the associated convective cloud development, representing 74% of cases. The main Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) site located close to the Galveston Bay is influenced by both GBC and BBC, with nearly half of the cases showing evident BBC features. The site experiences early frontal passages ranging from 1040 to 1630 local time (LT), with 1300 LT being the most frequent. These fronts are stronger than those observed at the ancillary site which is located further inland from the Galveston Bay, including larger changes in surface temperature, moisture, and wind speed. Furthermore, these fronts trigger boundary layer updrafts, likely promoting isolated convective precipitating cores that are short lived (average convective lifetime of 63 min) and slow moving (average propagation speed of 5 m s−1), primarily within 20–40 km from the coast.
Abstract
This study explores gulf-breeze circulations (GBCs) and bay-breeze circulations (BBCs) in Houston–Galveston, investigating their characteristics, large-scale weather influences, and impacts on surface properties, boundary layer updrafts, and convective clouds. The results are derived from a combination of datasets, including satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and reanalysis datasets, using machine learning, changepoint detection method, and Lagrangian cell tracking. We find that anticyclonic synoptic patterns during the summer months (June–September) favor GBC/BBC formation and the associated convective cloud development, representing 74% of cases. The main Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) site located close to the Galveston Bay is influenced by both GBC and BBC, with nearly half of the cases showing evident BBC features. The site experiences early frontal passages ranging from 1040 to 1630 local time (LT), with 1300 LT being the most frequent. These fronts are stronger than those observed at the ancillary site which is located further inland from the Galveston Bay, including larger changes in surface temperature, moisture, and wind speed. Furthermore, these fronts trigger boundary layer updrafts, likely promoting isolated convective precipitating cores that are short lived (average convective lifetime of 63 min) and slow moving (average propagation speed of 5 m s−1), primarily within 20–40 km from the coast.
Abstract
Earth and planetary radiometry requires spectrally dependent observations spanning an expansive range in signal flux due to variability in celestial illumination, spectral albedo, and attenuation. Insufficient dynamic range inhibits contemporaneous measurements of dissimilar signal levels and restricts potential environments, time periods, target types, or spectral ranges that instruments observe. Next-generation (NG) advances in temporal, spectral, and spatial resolution also require further increases in detector sensitivity and dynamic range corresponding to increased sampling rate and decreased field-of-view (FOV), both of which capture greater intrapixel variability (i.e., variability within the spatial and temporal integration of a pixel observation). Optical detectors typically must support expansive linear radiometric responsivity, while simultaneously enduring the inherent stressors of field, airborne, or satellite deployment. Rationales for significantly improving radiometric observations of nominally dark targets are described herein, along with demonstrations of state-of-the-art (SOTA) capabilities and NG strategies for advancing SOTA. An evaluation of linear dynamic range and efficacy of optical data products is presented based on representative sampling scenarios. Low-illumination (twilight or total lunar eclipse) observations are demonstrated using a SOTA prototype. Finally, a ruggedized and miniaturized commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) NG capability to obtain absolute radiometric observations spanning an expanded range in target brightness and illumination is presented. The presented NG technology combines a Multi-Pixel Photon Counter (MPPC) with a silicon photodetector (SiPD) to form a dyad optical sensing component supporting expansive dynamic range sensing, i.e., exceeding a nominal 10 decades in usable dynamic range documented for SOTA instruments.
Abstract
Earth and planetary radiometry requires spectrally dependent observations spanning an expansive range in signal flux due to variability in celestial illumination, spectral albedo, and attenuation. Insufficient dynamic range inhibits contemporaneous measurements of dissimilar signal levels and restricts potential environments, time periods, target types, or spectral ranges that instruments observe. Next-generation (NG) advances in temporal, spectral, and spatial resolution also require further increases in detector sensitivity and dynamic range corresponding to increased sampling rate and decreased field-of-view (FOV), both of which capture greater intrapixel variability (i.e., variability within the spatial and temporal integration of a pixel observation). Optical detectors typically must support expansive linear radiometric responsivity, while simultaneously enduring the inherent stressors of field, airborne, or satellite deployment. Rationales for significantly improving radiometric observations of nominally dark targets are described herein, along with demonstrations of state-of-the-art (SOTA) capabilities and NG strategies for advancing SOTA. An evaluation of linear dynamic range and efficacy of optical data products is presented based on representative sampling scenarios. Low-illumination (twilight or total lunar eclipse) observations are demonstrated using a SOTA prototype. Finally, a ruggedized and miniaturized commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) NG capability to obtain absolute radiometric observations spanning an expanded range in target brightness and illumination is presented. The presented NG technology combines a Multi-Pixel Photon Counter (MPPC) with a silicon photodetector (SiPD) to form a dyad optical sensing component supporting expansive dynamic range sensing, i.e., exceeding a nominal 10 decades in usable dynamic range documented for SOTA instruments.
