Browse

You are looking at 91 - 100 of 504 items for :

  • Weather, Climate, and Society x
  • Refine by Access: Content accessible to me x
Clear All
Jeannette Sutton, Scott L. Renshaw, Sarah C. Vos, Michele K. Olson, Robert Prestley, C. Ben Gibson, and Carter T. Butts

Abstract

Networked social media provide governmental organizations, such as the National Weather Service (NWS), the opportunity to communicate directly with stakeholders over long periods of time as a form of online engagement. Typologies of engagement include aspects of message content that provide information, contribute to community building, and inspire action and aspects of message microstructural features that facilitate interaction and dialogue, such as directed messages, hashtags, and URLs. Currently, little is known regarding the effect of message strategies on behavioral outcomes, and whether those effects vary under different weather conditions. In this paper we examine how message practices used on Twitter by the NWS are related to message engagement under routine and nonroutine weather conditions. Our analysis employs a census of tweets sent by 12 NWS Weather Forecast Offices in spring 2016 and uses a combination of manual and automated coding to identify engagement content and microstructure features present in each message. We identify factors that increase and decrease message retransmission (retweets) within this corpus under varying threat conditions, using a mixed-effects negative binomial regression model. We find that inclusion of actionable message content, information about historical weather facts, attached visual imagery (such as a map or infograph), and named event hashtags increases message passing during both threat and nonthreat periods. In contrast, messages that include forecast and nowcast content and messages that are sent in reply to other users have a lower passing rate. Findings suggest that common message features do alter message passing, potentially informing message design practices aimed at increasing the reach of messages sent under threat conditions.

Full access
Xiaoguang Chen, Guoping Tian, Zhilong Qin, and Xiang Bi

Abstract

We analyze a provincial-scale dataset of winter wheat yield, together with finescale daily weather outcomes from 1979 to 2011, to assess the responses of winter wheat yield in China to temperature fluctuations. Contrary to the majority of the previous literature, we find that winter wheat yield in China responded positively to higher nighttime temperature T min, with the positive T min effects most significant in the northern China winter wheat region. Consistent with the previous studies, winter wheat yield in China exhibited negative responses to higher daytime temperature T max. As a result of these opposing temperature effects on yield, the net economic impact of weather variations on China’s winter wheat sector is uncertain and is sensitive to specifications and data. Average winter wheat yield is projected to decline by 5.3%–7.0% by 2050 under the global climate model HadGEM2-ES and by 2.0%–3.4% under the NorESM1-M model.

Full access
Makenzie J. Krocak, Joseph T. Ripberger, Hank Jenkins-Smith, and Carol Silva

Abstract

As numerical modeling methods and forecasting technologies continue to improve, people may start to see more specific severe weather timing and location information hours before the event occurs. While studies have investigated response actions on the warning time scales, little work has been done to understand what types of actions residents will take given 4–8 h of advance notice for a possible tornado. This study uses data from the 2018 Severe Weather and Society Survey, an annual survey of U.S. adults, to begin analyzing response actions and how those responses differ with either 4 or 8 h of advance notice. Results show that response actions are largely the same between the two time periods. The small differences that do exist show that sheltering behaviors are more common with 4 h of advance notice whereas monitoring behaviors are more common with 8 h of notice. In addition, respondents claimed they would “wait and see” more often in the 8-h category, indicating they would seek additional information before deciding how to respond. Perhaps more important than the types of actions that respondents identify is the increase in those who are unsure of how to react or would choose to do nothing when given 8 h of notice. Respondents may be anchored to the current system and may not have considered all of the possible actions they can take given more time. Therefore, we emphasize the need for education campaigns as technology, forecasts, and desired responses continue to evolve.

Full access
Urša Ciuha, Tjaša Pogačar, Lučka Kajfež Bogataj, Mitja Gliha, Lars Nybo, Andreas D. Flouris, and Igor B. Mekjavic

Abstract

Occupational heat strain is a public health threat, and for outdoor industries there is a direct influence from elevated environmental temperatures during heat waves. However, the impact in indoor settings is more complex as industrial heat production and building architecture become factors of importance. Therefore, this study evaluated effects of heat waves on manufacturing productivity. Production halls in a manufacturing company were instrumented with 33 dataloggers to track air temperature and humidity. In addition, outdoor thermal conditions collected from a weather station next to the factory and daily productivity evaluated as overall equipment efficiency (OEE) were obtained, with interaction between productivity and thermal conditions analyzed before, during, and after four documented heat waves (average daily air temperature above 24°C on at least three consecutive days). Outdoor (before: 21.3° ± 4.6°C, during: 25.5° ± 4.3°C, and after: 19.8° ± 3.8°C) and indoor air temperatures (before: 30.4° ± 1.3°C, during: 32.8° ± 1.4°C, and after: 30.1° ± 1.4°C) were significantly elevated during the heat waves (p < 0.05). OEE was not different during the heat waves when compared with control, pre-heat-wave, and post-heat-wave OEE. Reduced OEE was observed in 3-day periods following the second and fourth heat wave (p < 0.05). Indoor workers in settings with high industrial heat production are exposed to a significant thermal stress that may increase during heat waves, but the impact on productivity cannot be directly derived from outdoor factors. The significant decline in productivity immediately following two of the documented heat waves could relate to a cumulative effect of the thermal strain experienced during work combined with high heat stress in the recovery time between work shifts.

Open access
Melanie M. Colavito, Sarah F. Trainor, Nathan P. Kettle, and Alison York

Abstract

Boundary organizations facilitate two-way, sustained interaction and communication between research and practitioner spheres, deliver existing science, and develop new, actionable scientific information to address emerging social–ecological questions applicable to decision-making. There is an increasing emphasis on the role of boundary organizations in facilitating knowledge coproduction, which is collaborative research with end users to develop actionable scientific information for decision-making. However, a deeper understanding of how boundary organizations and knowledge coproduction work in practice is needed. This paper examines the Alaska Fire Science Consortium (AFSC), a boundary organization focused on fire science and management in Alaska that is working to address climate impacts on wildfire. A case study approach was used to assess AFSC activities over time. AFSC’s boundary spanning involves a continuum of outputs and activities, but their overall trajectory has involved a deliberate transition from an emphasis on science delivery to knowledge coproduction. Key factors that facilitated this transition included a receptive and engaged audience, built-in evaluation and learning, subject matter expertise and complementarity, and embeddedness in the target audience communities. Recommendations for boundary organizations wishing to develop knowledge coproduction capacity include knowing your audience, employing trusted experts in boundary spanning, and engaging in frequent self-evaluation to inform change over time.

Full access
Joseph T. Ripberger, Makenzie J. Krocak, Wesley W. Wehde, Jinan N. Allan, Carol Silva, and Hank Jenkins-Smith

Abstract

Social criteria are important to achieving the mission of the National Weather Service. Accordingly, researchers and administrators at the NWS increasingly recognize a need to supplement verification statistics with complementary data about society in performance management and evaluation. This will require significant development of new capacities to both conceptualize relevant criteria and measure them using consistent, transparent, replicable, and reliable measures that permit generalizable inference to populations of interest. In this study, we contribute to this development by suggesting three criteria that require measurement (forecast and warning reception, comprehension, and response) and demonstrating a methodology that allows us to measure these concepts in a single information domain—tornado warnings. The methodology we employ improves upon previous research in multiple ways. It provides a more generalizable approach to measurement using a temporally consistent set of survey questions that are applicable across the United States; it relies on a more robust set of psychometric tests to analytically demonstrate the reliability of the measures; and it is more transparent and replicable than previous research because the data and methods (source code) are publicly available. In addition to describing and assessing the reliability of the measures, we explore the sensitivity of the measures to geographic and demographic variation to identify significant differences that require attention in measurement. We close by discussing the implications of this study and the next steps toward development and use of social criteria in performance management and evaluation.

Full access
Andrea L. Taylor, Astrid Kause, Barbara Summers, and Melanie Harrowsmith

Abstract

In the United Kingdom, the Met Office issues regionally calibrated impact-based weather warnings. These aim to reduce harm to people and property. To decrease risk from severe weather, it is important to understand how members of the U.K. public interpret and act on these warnings. This paper addresses this through a postevent survey (n = 552) conducted following Storm Doris, a 2017 winter storm during which wind warnings were issued across much of the United Kingdom. Survey questions examined 1) understanding of impact-based wind warnings, 2) interpretation of local warning level, 3) predictors of perceived local risk (likelihood, impact severity, concern) implied by warnings, 4) predictors of trust in the forecast, and 5) predictors of recalled and anticipated action. Our findings indicate that U.K. residents generally understand that weather warnings are based on potential weather impacts, although many do not realize warnings are regionally calibrated. We also find that while local warning levels are rarely underestimated, they may sometimes be overestimated. Institutional trust in the Met Office and perceived vulnerability to weather predict both perceived risk and behavioral response, while warning “understandability” is linked to greater trust in the forecast. Strikingly, while differences in local warning levels influenced risk perception, they did not affect recalled or intended behavioral response. This study highlights the importance of institutional trust in the effective communication of severe weather warnings, and a need for education on impact-based weather warnings. Above all, it demonstrates the need for further exploration of the effect of weather warnings on protective behavior.

Full access
S. Ziaja

Abstract

Climate adaptation relies on theoretical frameworks of coproduced science and knowledge networks to produce acceptable outcomes for politically contentious resources. As adaptation moves from theory to implementation, there is a need for positive case studies to use as benchmarks. Building from literature on actionable science this paper presents one such positive case—the development of a hydropower and reservoir decision-support tool. The focus of this history is on the multiple phases of interaction (and noninteraction) between researchers and a semidefined community of stakeholders. The lessons presented from the Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) system project stress that collaborations between managers and researchers were crucial to the success of the project by building knowledge networks, which could outlast formal processes, and by incorporating policy preferences of end users into the model. The history also provides examples of how even successful collaborative projects do not always follow the usual expectations for coproduced science and shows that, even when those guidelines are followed, external circumstances can threaten the adoption of research products. Ultimately, this paper argues for the importance of building strong knowledge networks alongside more formal processes—like those in boundary organizations—for effective collaborative engagement.

Full access
Adam J. Kalkstein, Miloslav Belorid, P. Grady Dixon, Kyu Rang Kim, and Keith A. Bremer

Abstract

South Korea has among the highest rates of suicide in the world, and previous research suggests that suicide frequency increases with anomalously high temperatures, possibly as a result of increased sunshine. However, it is unclear whether this temperature–suicide association exists throughout the entire year. Using distributed lag nonlinear modeling, which effectively controls for nonlinear and delayed effects, we examine temperature–suicide associations for both a warm season (April–September) and a cool season (October–March) for three cities across South Korea: Seoul, Daegu, and Busan. We find consistent, statistically significant, mostly linear relationships between relative risk of suicide and daily temperature in the cool season but few associations in the warm season. This seasonal signal of statistically significant temperature–suicide associations only in the cool season exists among all age segments, but especially for those 35 and older, along with both males and females. We further use distributed lag nonlinear modeling to examine cloud cover–suicide associations and find few significant relationships. This result suggests that that high daily temperatures in the cool season, and not exposure to sun, are responsible for the strong temperature–suicide associations found in South Korea.

Full access
Bogdan Antonescu, David M. Schultz, Hugo M. A. M. Ricketts, and Dragoş Ene

Abstract

Tornadoes and waterspouts have long fascinated humankind through their presence in myths and popular beliefs and originally were believed to have supernatural causes. The first theories explaining weather phenomena as having natural causes were proposed by ancient Greek natural philosophers. Aristotle was one of the first natural philosophers to speculate about the formation of tornadoes and waterspouts in Meteorologica (circa 340 BCE). Aristotle believed that tornadoes and waterspouts were associated with the wind trapped inside the cloud and moving in a circular motion. When the wind escapes the cloud, its descending motion carries the cloud with it, leading to the formation of a typhon (i.e., tornado or waterspout). His theories were adopted and further nuanced by other Greek philosophers such as Theophrastus and Epicurus. Aristotle’s ideas also influenced Roman philosophers such as Lucretius, Seneca, and Pliny the Elder, who further developed his ideas and also added their own speculations (e.g., tornadoes do not need a parent cloud). Almost ignored, Meteorologica was translated into Latin in the twelfth century, initially from an Arabic version, leading to much greater influence over the next centuries and into the Renaissance. In the seventeenth century, the first book-length studies on tornadoes and waterspouts were published in Italy and France, marking the beginning of theoretical and observational studies on these phenomena in Europe. Even if speculations about tornadoes and waterspouts proposed by Greek and Roman authors were cited after the nineteenth century only as historical pieces, core ideas of modern theories explaining these vortices can be traced back to this early literature.

Full access