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Abstract
The transport of warm deep water (WDW) onto the Weddell Sea continental shelf is associated with heat flux and strongly contributes to the melting of Antarctic ice shelves. The small radius of deformation at high latitudes makes it difficult to accurately represent the eddy-driven component of onshore WDW transport in coarse-resolution ocean models so that parameterization becomes necessary. The Gent and McWilliams/Redi (GM/Redi) scheme was designed to parameterize mesoscale eddies in the open ocean. Here, it is assessed to what extent the GM/Redi scheme can generate a realistic transport of WDW across the Weddell Sea continental slope. To this end, the eddy parameterization is applied to a coarse-resolution idealized model of the Weddell Sea continental shelf and slope, and its performance is evaluated against a high-resolution reference simulation. With the GM/Redi parameterization applied, the coarse model simulates a shoreward WDW transport with a heat transport that matches the high-resolution reference and both the hydrographic mean fields and the mean slopes of the isopycnals are improved. A successful application of the GM/Redi parameterization is only possible by reducing the GM diffusivity over the continental slope by an order of magnitude compared to the open ocean value to account for the eddy-suppressing effect of the topographic slope. When the influence of topography on the GM diffusivity is neglected, the coarse model with the parameterization either under- or overestimates the shoreward heat flux. These results motivate the incorporation of slope-aware eddy parameterizations into regional and global ocean models.
Significance Statement
Mesoscale eddies drive warm water across the continental slope and onto the continental shelf of the Weddell Sea, where it melts the adjacent Antarctic ice shelves. This process is not resolved in ocean models employing a coarse horizontal resolution akin to state-of-the-art climate models. This work addresses this issue by modifying and applying a well-established eddy parameterization to this specific case. The parameterization works particularly well when it accounts for the effect of sloping topography, over which eddy transports are weaker. We expect this modification also to be of benefit to regional and global models.
Abstract
The transport of warm deep water (WDW) onto the Weddell Sea continental shelf is associated with heat flux and strongly contributes to the melting of Antarctic ice shelves. The small radius of deformation at high latitudes makes it difficult to accurately represent the eddy-driven component of onshore WDW transport in coarse-resolution ocean models so that parameterization becomes necessary. The Gent and McWilliams/Redi (GM/Redi) scheme was designed to parameterize mesoscale eddies in the open ocean. Here, it is assessed to what extent the GM/Redi scheme can generate a realistic transport of WDW across the Weddell Sea continental slope. To this end, the eddy parameterization is applied to a coarse-resolution idealized model of the Weddell Sea continental shelf and slope, and its performance is evaluated against a high-resolution reference simulation. With the GM/Redi parameterization applied, the coarse model simulates a shoreward WDW transport with a heat transport that matches the high-resolution reference and both the hydrographic mean fields and the mean slopes of the isopycnals are improved. A successful application of the GM/Redi parameterization is only possible by reducing the GM diffusivity over the continental slope by an order of magnitude compared to the open ocean value to account for the eddy-suppressing effect of the topographic slope. When the influence of topography on the GM diffusivity is neglected, the coarse model with the parameterization either under- or overestimates the shoreward heat flux. These results motivate the incorporation of slope-aware eddy parameterizations into regional and global ocean models.
Significance Statement
Mesoscale eddies drive warm water across the continental slope and onto the continental shelf of the Weddell Sea, where it melts the adjacent Antarctic ice shelves. This process is not resolved in ocean models employing a coarse horizontal resolution akin to state-of-the-art climate models. This work addresses this issue by modifying and applying a well-established eddy parameterization to this specific case. The parameterization works particularly well when it accounts for the effect of sloping topography, over which eddy transports are weaker. We expect this modification also to be of benefit to regional and global models.
Abstract
Being situated in the estuary of the flood-dominated Hooghly River system, the macrotidal Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD) has become one of the most complex, dynamic, and rapidly changing landforms on Earth’s surface. To study the horizontal areal shifting of shoreline and its impact on mangrove cover in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) satellite data of 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021 were used. Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques were employed in the investigation. Simultaneous prograding and retrograding shoreline shifting was distinguished almost in all the parts, although sediment-starved eastern and macrotidally more active southern lobes experienced dominantly retreating shift, and the sediment-engorged western lobe was demonstrated to be more dynamic. Net areal change over north–south tracks followed the trend of decreasing accretion to increasing erosion while going from west to east, whereas that over west–east tracks followed the trend of exponentially increasing erosion while going from north to south. Overall accretion of ∼91 km2 in the ISD accounted for the augmentation of sparse vegetation of ∼13 km2, whereas ∼243 km2 erosion called for the depletion of sparse and moderate vegetation of ∼18 and ∼174 km2, respectively, over the 41-yr period. Various oceanographic and riparian forces and actions, episodic natural events, etc., vis-a-vis several anthropogenic interventions—all together contributed to such changes. The findings may help the coastal environmentalists, professionals, planners, decision-makers, and implementers in formulating and taking up of suitable strategic measures for integrated and effective coastal zone management in this estuarine wetland forest.
Abstract
Being situated in the estuary of the flood-dominated Hooghly River system, the macrotidal Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD) has become one of the most complex, dynamic, and rapidly changing landforms on Earth’s surface. To study the horizontal areal shifting of shoreline and its impact on mangrove cover in the region, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) satellite data of 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021 were used. Remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques were employed in the investigation. Simultaneous prograding and retrograding shoreline shifting was distinguished almost in all the parts, although sediment-starved eastern and macrotidally more active southern lobes experienced dominantly retreating shift, and the sediment-engorged western lobe was demonstrated to be more dynamic. Net areal change over north–south tracks followed the trend of decreasing accretion to increasing erosion while going from west to east, whereas that over west–east tracks followed the trend of exponentially increasing erosion while going from north to south. Overall accretion of ∼91 km2 in the ISD accounted for the augmentation of sparse vegetation of ∼13 km2, whereas ∼243 km2 erosion called for the depletion of sparse and moderate vegetation of ∼18 and ∼174 km2, respectively, over the 41-yr period. Various oceanographic and riparian forces and actions, episodic natural events, etc., vis-a-vis several anthropogenic interventions—all together contributed to such changes. The findings may help the coastal environmentalists, professionals, planners, decision-makers, and implementers in formulating and taking up of suitable strategic measures for integrated and effective coastal zone management in this estuarine wetland forest.
Abstract
The age of seawater refers to the amount of time that has elapsed since that water encountered the surface. This age measures the ventilation rate of the ocean, and the spatial distribution of age can be influenced by multiple processes, such as overturning circulation, ocean mixing, and air–sea exchange. In this work, we aim to gain new quantitative insights about how the ocean’s age tracer distribution reflects the strength of the meridional overturning circulation and diapycnal diffusivity. We propose an integral constraint that relates the age tracer flow across an isopycnal surface to the geometry of the surface. With the integral constraint, a relationship between the globally averaged effective diapycnal diffusivity and the meridional overturning strength at an arbitrary density level can be inferred from the age tracer concentration near that level. The theory is tested in a set of idealized single-basin simulations. A key insight from this study is that the age difference between regions of upwelling and downwelling, rather than any single absolute age value, is the best indicator of overturning strength. The framework has also been adapted to estimate the strength of abyssal overturning circulation in the modern North Pacific, and we demonstrate that the age field provides an estimate of the circulation strength consistent with previous studies. This framework could potentially constrain ocean circulation and mixing rates from age-like realistic tracers (e.g., radiocarbon) in both past and present climates.
Significance Statement
The age of seawater—the local mean time since local water from different pathways was last at the surface—is a valuable indicator of ocean circulation and the transport time scale of heat and carbon. We introduce a novel constraint that relates total age flow across a density surface to its geometry, which provides new insights into constraining ocean circulation and mixing rates from age-like realistic tracers (e.g., radiocarbon).
Abstract
The age of seawater refers to the amount of time that has elapsed since that water encountered the surface. This age measures the ventilation rate of the ocean, and the spatial distribution of age can be influenced by multiple processes, such as overturning circulation, ocean mixing, and air–sea exchange. In this work, we aim to gain new quantitative insights about how the ocean’s age tracer distribution reflects the strength of the meridional overturning circulation and diapycnal diffusivity. We propose an integral constraint that relates the age tracer flow across an isopycnal surface to the geometry of the surface. With the integral constraint, a relationship between the globally averaged effective diapycnal diffusivity and the meridional overturning strength at an arbitrary density level can be inferred from the age tracer concentration near that level. The theory is tested in a set of idealized single-basin simulations. A key insight from this study is that the age difference between regions of upwelling and downwelling, rather than any single absolute age value, is the best indicator of overturning strength. The framework has also been adapted to estimate the strength of abyssal overturning circulation in the modern North Pacific, and we demonstrate that the age field provides an estimate of the circulation strength consistent with previous studies. This framework could potentially constrain ocean circulation and mixing rates from age-like realistic tracers (e.g., radiocarbon) in both past and present climates.
Significance Statement
The age of seawater—the local mean time since local water from different pathways was last at the surface—is a valuable indicator of ocean circulation and the transport time scale of heat and carbon. We introduce a novel constraint that relates total age flow across a density surface to its geometry, which provides new insights into constraining ocean circulation and mixing rates from age-like realistic tracers (e.g., radiocarbon).
Abstract
Efforts to parameterize ice shelf basal melting within climate models are limited by an incomplete understanding of the influence of ice base slope on the turbulent ice shelf–ocean boundary current (ISOBC). Here, we examine the relationship between ice base slope, boundary current dynamics, and melt rate using 3D, turbulence-permitting large-eddy simulations (LESs) of an idealized ice shelf–ocean boundary current forced solely by melt-induced buoyancy. The range of simulated slopes (3%–10%) is appropriate to the grounding zone of small Antarctic ice shelves and to the flanks of relatively wide ice base channels, and the initial conditions are representative of warm-cavity ocean conditions. In line with previous studies, the simulations feature the development of an Ekman boundary layer adjacent to the ice, overlaying a broad pycnocline. The time-averaged flow within the pycnocline is in thermal wind balance, with a mean shear that is only weakly dependent on the ice base slope angle α, resulting in a mean gradient Richardson number 〈Ri g 〉 that decreases approximately linearly with sinα. Combining this inverse relationship with a linear approximation to the density profile, we derive formulations for the friction velocity, thermal forcing, and melt rate in terms of slope angle and total buoyancy input. This theory predicts that melt rate varies like the square root of slope, which is consistent with the LES results and differs from a previously proposed linear trend. The derived scalings provide a potential framework for incorporating slope dependence into parameterizations of mixing and melting at the base of ice shelves.
Significance Statement
The majority of Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise can be attributed to changes in ocean-driven melting at the base of ice shelves (the floating extensions of the Antarctic ice sheet). Turbulent ocean currents and melting are strongest where the ice base is steeply sloped, but few studies have systematically examined this effect. We use an idealized ice shelf–ocean model to examine how variations in ice base slope influence ocean mixing and ice melting. We derive a formula predicting that melting varies like the square root of the ice base slope, and this scaling is supported by the simulations. These results provide a potential framework for improving the representation of ice shelf melting in climate models.
Abstract
Efforts to parameterize ice shelf basal melting within climate models are limited by an incomplete understanding of the influence of ice base slope on the turbulent ice shelf–ocean boundary current (ISOBC). Here, we examine the relationship between ice base slope, boundary current dynamics, and melt rate using 3D, turbulence-permitting large-eddy simulations (LESs) of an idealized ice shelf–ocean boundary current forced solely by melt-induced buoyancy. The range of simulated slopes (3%–10%) is appropriate to the grounding zone of small Antarctic ice shelves and to the flanks of relatively wide ice base channels, and the initial conditions are representative of warm-cavity ocean conditions. In line with previous studies, the simulations feature the development of an Ekman boundary layer adjacent to the ice, overlaying a broad pycnocline. The time-averaged flow within the pycnocline is in thermal wind balance, with a mean shear that is only weakly dependent on the ice base slope angle α, resulting in a mean gradient Richardson number 〈Ri g 〉 that decreases approximately linearly with sinα. Combining this inverse relationship with a linear approximation to the density profile, we derive formulations for the friction velocity, thermal forcing, and melt rate in terms of slope angle and total buoyancy input. This theory predicts that melt rate varies like the square root of slope, which is consistent with the LES results and differs from a previously proposed linear trend. The derived scalings provide a potential framework for incorporating slope dependence into parameterizations of mixing and melting at the base of ice shelves.
Significance Statement
The majority of Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise can be attributed to changes in ocean-driven melting at the base of ice shelves (the floating extensions of the Antarctic ice sheet). Turbulent ocean currents and melting are strongest where the ice base is steeply sloped, but few studies have systematically examined this effect. We use an idealized ice shelf–ocean model to examine how variations in ice base slope influence ocean mixing and ice melting. We derive a formula predicting that melting varies like the square root of the ice base slope, and this scaling is supported by the simulations. These results provide a potential framework for improving the representation of ice shelf melting in climate models.
Abstract
During polar winter, refreezing of exposed ocean areas results in the rejection of brine, i.e., salt-enriched plumes of water, a source of available potential energy that can drive ocean instabilities. As this process is highly localized, and driven by sea ice physics, not gradients in oceanic or atmospheric buoyancy, it is not currently captured in modern climate models. This study aims to understand the energetics and lateral transfer of density at a semi-infinite, instantaneously opened, and continuously refreezing sea ice edge through a series of high-resolution model experiments. We show that kilometer-scale submesoscale eddies grow from baroclinic instabilities via an inverse energy cascade. These eddies meander along the ice edge and propagate laterally. The lateral transfer of buoyancy by eddies is not explained by existing theories. We isolate the fundamental forcing-independent quantities driving lateral mixing and discuss the implications for the overall strength of submesoscale activity in the Arctic Ocean.
Abstract
During polar winter, refreezing of exposed ocean areas results in the rejection of brine, i.e., salt-enriched plumes of water, a source of available potential energy that can drive ocean instabilities. As this process is highly localized, and driven by sea ice physics, not gradients in oceanic or atmospheric buoyancy, it is not currently captured in modern climate models. This study aims to understand the energetics and lateral transfer of density at a semi-infinite, instantaneously opened, and continuously refreezing sea ice edge through a series of high-resolution model experiments. We show that kilometer-scale submesoscale eddies grow from baroclinic instabilities via an inverse energy cascade. These eddies meander along the ice edge and propagate laterally. The lateral transfer of buoyancy by eddies is not explained by existing theories. We isolate the fundamental forcing-independent quantities driving lateral mixing and discuss the implications for the overall strength of submesoscale activity in the Arctic Ocean.
Abstract
The water mass produced during wintertime convection in the Labrador Sea [i.e., the Labrador Sea Water (LSW)] is characterized by distinct thermohaline properties. It has been shown to exert a critical impact on the property and circulation fields of the North Atlantic. However, a quantitative understanding of the transformation and formation processes that produce LSW is still incomplete. Here, we evaluate the mean water mass transformation (WMT) and formation rates in the Labrador Sea, along with their forcing attributions, in both density and thermohaline coordinates using observation-based datasets during 2014–19. We find that while surface buoyancy loss results in an expected densification of the basin and thus LSW formation, interior mixing has an indispensable and more complex impact. In particular, mixing across density surfaces is estimated to account for 63% of the mean formation rate in the LSW layer [4.9 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1)] and does so by converting both upper-layer and overflow layer waters into the LSW layer. In addition, mixing along density surfaces is shown to be responsible for the pronounced diathermohaline transformation (∼10 Sv) west of Greenland. This is the primary process through which the cold and fresh LSW in the basin interior is exchanged with the warm and salty Irminger Water in the boundary current. Results from this study underline the critical role of mixing (both across and along density surfaces) in determining the volume and properties of the LSW, with implications for better understanding and simulating deep-water evolution under climate change.
Abstract
The water mass produced during wintertime convection in the Labrador Sea [i.e., the Labrador Sea Water (LSW)] is characterized by distinct thermohaline properties. It has been shown to exert a critical impact on the property and circulation fields of the North Atlantic. However, a quantitative understanding of the transformation and formation processes that produce LSW is still incomplete. Here, we evaluate the mean water mass transformation (WMT) and formation rates in the Labrador Sea, along with their forcing attributions, in both density and thermohaline coordinates using observation-based datasets during 2014–19. We find that while surface buoyancy loss results in an expected densification of the basin and thus LSW formation, interior mixing has an indispensable and more complex impact. In particular, mixing across density surfaces is estimated to account for 63% of the mean formation rate in the LSW layer [4.9 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1)] and does so by converting both upper-layer and overflow layer waters into the LSW layer. In addition, mixing along density surfaces is shown to be responsible for the pronounced diathermohaline transformation (∼10 Sv) west of Greenland. This is the primary process through which the cold and fresh LSW in the basin interior is exchanged with the warm and salty Irminger Water in the boundary current. Results from this study underline the critical role of mixing (both across and along density surfaces) in determining the volume and properties of the LSW, with implications for better understanding and simulating deep-water evolution under climate change.
Abstract
Data from an air–sea interaction tower are used to close the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget in the wave-affected surface layer of the upper ocean. Under energetic wind forcing with active wave breaking, the dominant balance is between the dissipation rate of TKE and the downward convergence in vertical energy flux. The downward energy flux is driven by pressure work, and the TKE transport is upward, opposite to the downgradient assumption in most turbulence closure models. The sign and the relative magnitude of these energy fluxes are hypothesized to be driven by an interaction between the vertical velocity of Langmuir circulation (LC) and the kinetic energy and pressure of wave groups, which is the result of small-scale wave–current interaction. Consistent with previous modeling studies, the data suggest that the horizontal velocity anomaly associated with LC refracts wave energy away from downwelling regions and into upwelling regions, resulting in negative covariance between the vertical velocity of LC and the pressure anomaly associated with the wave groups. The asymmetry between downward pressure work and upward TKE flux is explained by the Bernoulli response of the sea surface, which results in groups of waves having a larger pressure anomaly than the corresponding kinetic energy anomaly, consistent with group-bound long-wave theory.
Abstract
Data from an air–sea interaction tower are used to close the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget in the wave-affected surface layer of the upper ocean. Under energetic wind forcing with active wave breaking, the dominant balance is between the dissipation rate of TKE and the downward convergence in vertical energy flux. The downward energy flux is driven by pressure work, and the TKE transport is upward, opposite to the downgradient assumption in most turbulence closure models. The sign and the relative magnitude of these energy fluxes are hypothesized to be driven by an interaction between the vertical velocity of Langmuir circulation (LC) and the kinetic energy and pressure of wave groups, which is the result of small-scale wave–current interaction. Consistent with previous modeling studies, the data suggest that the horizontal velocity anomaly associated with LC refracts wave energy away from downwelling regions and into upwelling regions, resulting in negative covariance between the vertical velocity of LC and the pressure anomaly associated with the wave groups. The asymmetry between downward pressure work and upward TKE flux is explained by the Bernoulli response of the sea surface, which results in groups of waves having a larger pressure anomaly than the corresponding kinetic energy anomaly, consistent with group-bound long-wave theory.
Abstract
Shipboard ADCP velocity and towed CTD chain density measurements from the eastern North Pacific pycnocline are used to segregate energy between linear internal waves (IW) and linear vortical motion [quasigeostrophy (QG)] in 2D wavenumber space spanning submesoscale horizontal wavelengths λx ∼ 1–50 km and finescale vertical wavelengths λz ∼ 7–100 m. Helmholtz decomposition and a new Burger number (Bu) decomposition yield similar results despite different methodologies. While these wavelengths are conventionally attributed to internal waves, both QG and IW contribute significantly at all measured scales. Partition between IW and QG total energies depends on Bu. For Bu < 0.01, available potential energy EP exceeds horizontal kinetic energy EK and is contributed mostly by QG. In contrast, energy is nearly equipartitioned between QG and IW for Bu ≫ 1. For Bu < 2, EK is contributed mainly by IW, and EP by QG, while, for Bu > 2, contributions are reversed. Finescale near-inertial IW dominate vertical shear variance, implying negligible QG contribution to vertical shear instability. In contrast, both QG and IW at the smallest λx ∼ 1 km contribute large horizontal shear variance, so that both may lead to horizontal shear instability, while QG, with its longer time scales, likely dominates isopycnal stirring. Both QG and IW contribute to vortex stretching at small vertical scales. For QG, the relative vorticity contribution to linear potential vorticity anomaly increases with decreasing horizontal and increasing vertical scales.
Abstract
Shipboard ADCP velocity and towed CTD chain density measurements from the eastern North Pacific pycnocline are used to segregate energy between linear internal waves (IW) and linear vortical motion [quasigeostrophy (QG)] in 2D wavenumber space spanning submesoscale horizontal wavelengths λx ∼ 1–50 km and finescale vertical wavelengths λz ∼ 7–100 m. Helmholtz decomposition and a new Burger number (Bu) decomposition yield similar results despite different methodologies. While these wavelengths are conventionally attributed to internal waves, both QG and IW contribute significantly at all measured scales. Partition between IW and QG total energies depends on Bu. For Bu < 0.01, available potential energy EP exceeds horizontal kinetic energy EK and is contributed mostly by QG. In contrast, energy is nearly equipartitioned between QG and IW for Bu ≫ 1. For Bu < 2, EK is contributed mainly by IW, and EP by QG, while, for Bu > 2, contributions are reversed. Finescale near-inertial IW dominate vertical shear variance, implying negligible QG contribution to vertical shear instability. In contrast, both QG and IW at the smallest λx ∼ 1 km contribute large horizontal shear variance, so that both may lead to horizontal shear instability, while QG, with its longer time scales, likely dominates isopycnal stirring. Both QG and IW contribute to vortex stretching at small vertical scales. For QG, the relative vorticity contribution to linear potential vorticity anomaly increases with decreasing horizontal and increasing vertical scales.
Abstract
The ocean surrounding Antarctica, also known as the Antarctic margins, is characterized by complex and heterogeneous process interactions, which have major impacts on the global climate. A common way to understand changes in the Antarctic margins is to categorize regions into similar “regimes,” thereby guiding process-based studies and observational analyses. However, this categorization is traditionally largely subjective and based on temperature, density, and bathymetric criteria that are bespoke to the dataset being analyzed. In this work, we introduce a method to classify Antarctic shelf regimes using unsupervised learning. We apply Gaussian mixture modeling to the across-shelf temperature and salinity properties along the Antarctic margins from a high-resolution ocean model, ACCESS-OM2-01. Three clusters are found to be optimum based on the Bayesian information criterion and an assessment of regime properties. The three clusters correspond to the fresh, dense, and warm regimes identified canonically via subjective approaches. Our analysis allows us to track changes to these regimes in a future projection of the ACCESS-OM2-01 model. We identify the future collapse of dense water formation, and the merging of dense and fresh shelf regions into a single fresh regime that covers the entirety of the Antarctic shelf except for the West Antarctic. Our assessment of these clusters indicates that the Antarctic margins may shift into a two-regime system in the future, consisting only of a strengthening warm shelf in the West Antarctic and a fresh shelf regime everywhere else.
Significance Statement
The Antarctic margins are characterized by complex interactions of surface and ocean processes, producing distinct regions or “regimes.” Understanding where these regimes are and their future state is critical to understanding climate change. Based on a subjective assessment of ocean conditions, past research has identified fresh, dense, and warm regimes in the Antarctic margins. In this work, we use an unsupervised classification tool, Gaussian mixture modeling, to objectively identify the location of regimes around the Antarctic margins. Our method detects three regimes in an ocean model, which match the location of subjectively identified fresh, dense, and warm regimes, and indicates a future shrinking of the dense regime. Our method is adaptable to multiple datasets, enabling us to identify trends and processes in the Antarctic margins.
Abstract
The ocean surrounding Antarctica, also known as the Antarctic margins, is characterized by complex and heterogeneous process interactions, which have major impacts on the global climate. A common way to understand changes in the Antarctic margins is to categorize regions into similar “regimes,” thereby guiding process-based studies and observational analyses. However, this categorization is traditionally largely subjective and based on temperature, density, and bathymetric criteria that are bespoke to the dataset being analyzed. In this work, we introduce a method to classify Antarctic shelf regimes using unsupervised learning. We apply Gaussian mixture modeling to the across-shelf temperature and salinity properties along the Antarctic margins from a high-resolution ocean model, ACCESS-OM2-01. Three clusters are found to be optimum based on the Bayesian information criterion and an assessment of regime properties. The three clusters correspond to the fresh, dense, and warm regimes identified canonically via subjective approaches. Our analysis allows us to track changes to these regimes in a future projection of the ACCESS-OM2-01 model. We identify the future collapse of dense water formation, and the merging of dense and fresh shelf regions into a single fresh regime that covers the entirety of the Antarctic shelf except for the West Antarctic. Our assessment of these clusters indicates that the Antarctic margins may shift into a two-regime system in the future, consisting only of a strengthening warm shelf in the West Antarctic and a fresh shelf regime everywhere else.
Significance Statement
The Antarctic margins are characterized by complex interactions of surface and ocean processes, producing distinct regions or “regimes.” Understanding where these regimes are and their future state is critical to understanding climate change. Based on a subjective assessment of ocean conditions, past research has identified fresh, dense, and warm regimes in the Antarctic margins. In this work, we use an unsupervised classification tool, Gaussian mixture modeling, to objectively identify the location of regimes around the Antarctic margins. Our method detects three regimes in an ocean model, which match the location of subjectively identified fresh, dense, and warm regimes, and indicates a future shrinking of the dense regime. Our method is adaptable to multiple datasets, enabling us to identify trends and processes in the Antarctic margins.
Abstract
The Arctic Beaufort Gyre plays a critical role in climate and marine ecosystems. This study investigates the response of the liquid freshwater in the Beaufort Gyre to various wind perturbations using numerical simulations. A new diagnostic called “freshwater renewal” is introduced, which quantifies the amount of freshwater that has entered the Beaufort Gyre since a specific point in time. The findings reveal that the process of freshwater renewal is persistently efficient in the Beaufort Gyre region, occurring irrespective of the gyre’s status. The spatial distribution of freshwater renewal varies, influenced by factors such as wind forcing and gyre circulation patterns. Cyclonic wind perturbation associated with a negative Beaufort high sea level pressure anomaly triggers freshwater release from the Beaufort Gyre, with freshwater export and renewal dependent on wind-perturbation locations and time scales. While some released Beaufort Gyre freshwater exits the Arctic Ocean through the Davis and Fram Straits, a considerable portion could remain within the Arctic Ocean for many years under specific conditions. Wind perturbation associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation enhances the Arctic export of Beaufort Gyre freshwater, mainly through the Fram Strait. The Arctic export of total freshwater and the Arctic export of the portion originating from the Beaufort Gyre have different time scales and magnitudes. Hence, it is essential to collectively examine different freshwater components in order to assess the role of Arctic export in the climate system.
Abstract
The Arctic Beaufort Gyre plays a critical role in climate and marine ecosystems. This study investigates the response of the liquid freshwater in the Beaufort Gyre to various wind perturbations using numerical simulations. A new diagnostic called “freshwater renewal” is introduced, which quantifies the amount of freshwater that has entered the Beaufort Gyre since a specific point in time. The findings reveal that the process of freshwater renewal is persistently efficient in the Beaufort Gyre region, occurring irrespective of the gyre’s status. The spatial distribution of freshwater renewal varies, influenced by factors such as wind forcing and gyre circulation patterns. Cyclonic wind perturbation associated with a negative Beaufort high sea level pressure anomaly triggers freshwater release from the Beaufort Gyre, with freshwater export and renewal dependent on wind-perturbation locations and time scales. While some released Beaufort Gyre freshwater exits the Arctic Ocean through the Davis and Fram Straits, a considerable portion could remain within the Arctic Ocean for many years under specific conditions. Wind perturbation associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation enhances the Arctic export of Beaufort Gyre freshwater, mainly through the Fram Strait. The Arctic export of total freshwater and the Arctic export of the portion originating from the Beaufort Gyre have different time scales and magnitudes. Hence, it is essential to collectively examine different freshwater components in order to assess the role of Arctic export in the climate system.
