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Abstract
Landfalling hurricanes in the United States can inflict extreme damage and loss of life. The latter, particularly, can be caused by a host of socioeconomic factors, including insufficient understanding of risk by individuals expected to be impacted by the storm. Thus, we test the use of an emerging technology, virtual reality (VR), to enhance the communication of real-time risk from a hurricane forecast to make landfall. In this pilot study, individuals are presented with a hypothetical scenario where a major hurricane is forecast to impact their community within 48–72 h. The survey includes two different types of warning products related to the hypothetical hurricane: static text and maps emulating those traditionally used by media outlets and local officials to communicate risk, and a VR video simulating a hurricane landfall in a residential neighborhood. We survey two groups of equal size (each n = 62), one viewing both the VR simulation and traditional products, and the other only the latter. Each group was then asked a series of Likert-scale and open-ended questions to assess the effectiveness of both products. We determine that participants viewing both the VR and traditional products are significantly more likely to take action in preparation for the hypothetical landfall than those being exposed to just the traditional products. These results demonstrate that VR can be a useful component of hurricane warning products, and further work can be done to improve the effectiveness of such products and assess how broader segments of the population can access this information.
Abstract
Landfalling hurricanes in the United States can inflict extreme damage and loss of life. The latter, particularly, can be caused by a host of socioeconomic factors, including insufficient understanding of risk by individuals expected to be impacted by the storm. Thus, we test the use of an emerging technology, virtual reality (VR), to enhance the communication of real-time risk from a hurricane forecast to make landfall. In this pilot study, individuals are presented with a hypothetical scenario where a major hurricane is forecast to impact their community within 48–72 h. The survey includes two different types of warning products related to the hypothetical hurricane: static text and maps emulating those traditionally used by media outlets and local officials to communicate risk, and a VR video simulating a hurricane landfall in a residential neighborhood. We survey two groups of equal size (each n = 62), one viewing both the VR simulation and traditional products, and the other only the latter. Each group was then asked a series of Likert-scale and open-ended questions to assess the effectiveness of both products. We determine that participants viewing both the VR and traditional products are significantly more likely to take action in preparation for the hypothetical landfall than those being exposed to just the traditional products. These results demonstrate that VR can be a useful component of hurricane warning products, and further work can be done to improve the effectiveness of such products and assess how broader segments of the population can access this information.
Abstract
For decision-makers, climate change is a problem in risk assessment and risk management. It is, therefore, surprising that the needs and lessons of risk assessment have not featured more centrally in the consideration of priorities for physical climate science research, or in the Working Group I contributions to the major assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This article considers the reasons, which include a widespread view that the job of physical climate science is to provide predictions and projections—with a focus on likelihood rather than risk—and that risk assessment is a job for others. This view, it is argued, is incorrect. There is an urgent need for physical climate science to take the needs of risk assessment much more seriously. The challenge of meeting this need has important implications for priorities in climate research, climate modeling, and climate assessments.
Abstract
For decision-makers, climate change is a problem in risk assessment and risk management. It is, therefore, surprising that the needs and lessons of risk assessment have not featured more centrally in the consideration of priorities for physical climate science research, or in the Working Group I contributions to the major assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This article considers the reasons, which include a widespread view that the job of physical climate science is to provide predictions and projections—with a focus on likelihood rather than risk—and that risk assessment is a job for others. This view, it is argued, is incorrect. There is an urgent need for physical climate science to take the needs of risk assessment much more seriously. The challenge of meeting this need has important implications for priorities in climate research, climate modeling, and climate assessments.
Abstract
Mitigation of human-caused climate change is essential to lessen the extent of future negative impacts, but many people are not aware of the urgency of the situation. For meaningful climate change action to be realized, accurate information must be conveyed by experts to nonexperts. Improved climate change literacy may thus be achieved in two ways. First, we must increase the number of scientists who are knowledgeable about climate change, and second, we must encourage these experts to engage with nonexperts and provide them with adequate resources to do so. Such efforts are currently being implemented in the undergraduate Atmospheric Sciences/Meteorology program (ATM) at Northern Vermont University–Lyndon. To increase knowledge, all ATM students regardless of career pathway are required to take courses that cover the science of human-caused climate change. They are then encouraged to communicate this knowledge to the public. Students are creating informational content for a department-run website and are regularly given opportunities to engage with the public at local schools and events. The results of these curricular and extracurricular changes are promising. Student interest in the topic of climate change has increased and they have demonstrated a heighted sense of responsibility to engage with the public about this challenging topic.
Abstract
Mitigation of human-caused climate change is essential to lessen the extent of future negative impacts, but many people are not aware of the urgency of the situation. For meaningful climate change action to be realized, accurate information must be conveyed by experts to nonexperts. Improved climate change literacy may thus be achieved in two ways. First, we must increase the number of scientists who are knowledgeable about climate change, and second, we must encourage these experts to engage with nonexperts and provide them with adequate resources to do so. Such efforts are currently being implemented in the undergraduate Atmospheric Sciences/Meteorology program (ATM) at Northern Vermont University–Lyndon. To increase knowledge, all ATM students regardless of career pathway are required to take courses that cover the science of human-caused climate change. They are then encouraged to communicate this knowledge to the public. Students are creating informational content for a department-run website and are regularly given opportunities to engage with the public at local schools and events. The results of these curricular and extracurricular changes are promising. Student interest in the topic of climate change has increased and they have demonstrated a heighted sense of responsibility to engage with the public about this challenging topic.
Abstract
Hurricane Harvey brought catastrophic destruction and historical flooding to the Gulf Coast region in late August 2017. Guided by numerical weather prediction models, operational forecasters at NOAA provided outstanding forecasts of Harvey’s future path and potential for record flooding days in advance. These forecasts were valuable to the public and emergency managers in protecting lives and property. The current study shows the potential for further improving Harvey’s analysis and prediction through advanced ensemble assimilation of high-spatiotemporal all-sky infrared radiances from the newly launched, next-generation geostationary weather satellite, GOES-16. Although findings from this single-event study should be further evaluated, the results highlight the potential improvement in hurricane prediction that is possible via sustained investment in advanced observing systems, such as those from weather satellites, comprehensive data assimilation methodologies that can more effectively ingest existing and future observations, higher-resolution weather prediction models with more accurate numerics and physics, and high-performance computing facilities that can perform advanced analysis and forecasting in a timely manner.
Abstract
Hurricane Harvey brought catastrophic destruction and historical flooding to the Gulf Coast region in late August 2017. Guided by numerical weather prediction models, operational forecasters at NOAA provided outstanding forecasts of Harvey’s future path and potential for record flooding days in advance. These forecasts were valuable to the public and emergency managers in protecting lives and property. The current study shows the potential for further improving Harvey’s analysis and prediction through advanced ensemble assimilation of high-spatiotemporal all-sky infrared radiances from the newly launched, next-generation geostationary weather satellite, GOES-16. Although findings from this single-event study should be further evaluated, the results highlight the potential improvement in hurricane prediction that is possible via sustained investment in advanced observing systems, such as those from weather satellites, comprehensive data assimilation methodologies that can more effectively ingest existing and future observations, higher-resolution weather prediction models with more accurate numerics and physics, and high-performance computing facilities that can perform advanced analysis and forecasting in a timely manner.
Abstract
Graphical visualizations have the potential to engage diverse audiences in understanding the changes to our climate, especially when spread worldwide using both traditional and social media. The animated global temperature spiral was one of the first climate graphics to “go viral,” being viewed by millions of people online and by more than a billion people when it was used in the opening ceremony of the 2016 Rio Olympics. The idea, design, and communication aspects that led to the successes of this animated graphic are discussed, highlighting the benefits to scientists of engaging actively online and openly sharing their creative ideas.
Abstract
Graphical visualizations have the potential to engage diverse audiences in understanding the changes to our climate, especially when spread worldwide using both traditional and social media. The animated global temperature spiral was one of the first climate graphics to “go viral,” being viewed by millions of people online and by more than a billion people when it was used in the opening ceremony of the 2016 Rio Olympics. The idea, design, and communication aspects that led to the successes of this animated graphic are discussed, highlighting the benefits to scientists of engaging actively online and openly sharing their creative ideas.
Abstract
Communicating weather-related hazards to the public can be a challenge for meteorologists, particularly given the nature of confidence levels in forecasting science. Despite these challenges, communicating high-impact weather remains extremely important because it has implications for the safety, health, and resilience of impacted communities. Because the dynamics of this issue are complex, solutions to weather hazard communication benefit from interdisciplinary solutions and multiple types of expertise. Our work demonstrates how rhetoric, a foundational communication discipline, can be applied to improving weather forecast communication. Applying a rhetorical framework allows the identification of communication strategies that not only invite public involvement but encourage users to act as conduits for weather information distribution. As a result, trust can be developed between the National Weather Service (NWS) and public audiences. The initial results support the hypothesis that effective public communication from NWS messaging can be improved by incorporating the concept of “commonplaces,” which are the expressions of beliefs, values, and norms that construct community attitudes toward weather or natural hazard forecasts, into visual communication techniques such as NWS Weather Stories.
Abstract
Communicating weather-related hazards to the public can be a challenge for meteorologists, particularly given the nature of confidence levels in forecasting science. Despite these challenges, communicating high-impact weather remains extremely important because it has implications for the safety, health, and resilience of impacted communities. Because the dynamics of this issue are complex, solutions to weather hazard communication benefit from interdisciplinary solutions and multiple types of expertise. Our work demonstrates how rhetoric, a foundational communication discipline, can be applied to improving weather forecast communication. Applying a rhetorical framework allows the identification of communication strategies that not only invite public involvement but encourage users to act as conduits for weather information distribution. As a result, trust can be developed between the National Weather Service (NWS) and public audiences. The initial results support the hypothesis that effective public communication from NWS messaging can be improved by incorporating the concept of “commonplaces,” which are the expressions of beliefs, values, and norms that construct community attitudes toward weather or natural hazard forecasts, into visual communication techniques such as NWS Weather Stories.
Abstract
While writing is integral to science, it gets little attention in formal science education/academics. Such neglect has serious implications for nonnative English-speaking (NNES) scientists. An inability to write effective and efficient manuscripts can considerably delay the publication of new results while reflecting badly on the performance of individual scientists and on institutional productivity. In the multiethnic and multilingual Indian society, NNES scientists may face more linguistic complexities that inhibit clear and precise scientific writing. This article tries to address the predicament of scientific writing among NNES scientists in weather and climate sciences in India. Results from an informal e-mail survey with 80 respondents, mostly drawn from academic and research institutions in India, bolster anecdotal evidence of the difficulties NNES scientists have in writing about their science in research and popular publications. The responses also reflect high levels of interest these scientists have in addressing their communication difficulties. The survey results address the scientists’ perceptions and dilemmas in clear scientific writing as well as their perceived skills and training needs. The article also suggests possible solutions.
Abstract
While writing is integral to science, it gets little attention in formal science education/academics. Such neglect has serious implications for nonnative English-speaking (NNES) scientists. An inability to write effective and efficient manuscripts can considerably delay the publication of new results while reflecting badly on the performance of individual scientists and on institutional productivity. In the multiethnic and multilingual Indian society, NNES scientists may face more linguistic complexities that inhibit clear and precise scientific writing. This article tries to address the predicament of scientific writing among NNES scientists in weather and climate sciences in India. Results from an informal e-mail survey with 80 respondents, mostly drawn from academic and research institutions in India, bolster anecdotal evidence of the difficulties NNES scientists have in writing about their science in research and popular publications. The responses also reflect high levels of interest these scientists have in addressing their communication difficulties. The survey results address the scientists’ perceptions and dilemmas in clear scientific writing as well as their perceived skills and training needs. The article also suggests possible solutions.
