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Abstract
Studying the population’s perception of coastal erosion is essential and is increasingly used by coastal administrators, especially because it strongly influences the acceptance of coastal adaptation strategies. This article explores the population’s perception of coastal risk on the Atlantic coast of France (Pays de la Loire region) that is an at-risk territory historically affected by erosion and is particularly sensitive to coastal flooding. The major goal of the paper is to collect data in terms of risk perception by carrying out a field survey on three territorial collectivities, with the aim to enhance the feasibility of the managed retreat operations that will be implemented on this coast in the next years. A total of 700 surveys were collected and several original results can be drawn: the population has a good knowledge of erosion in the area where they live, and this knowledge is key because the territory is vulnerable. Similarly, the respondents have a good knowledge of protection measures, but some are more important than others: for example, the reinforcement of coastal defenses is the most commonly cited strategy to deal with coastal hazards whereas relocation is the second-most-known but least-popular scenario. Several factors influence people’s perception of risk: for example, time spent in the residence and age of residents are two elements contributing to place attachment that must be taken into account before starting to implement any climate adaptation policies.
Abstract
Studying the population’s perception of coastal erosion is essential and is increasingly used by coastal administrators, especially because it strongly influences the acceptance of coastal adaptation strategies. This article explores the population’s perception of coastal risk on the Atlantic coast of France (Pays de la Loire region) that is an at-risk territory historically affected by erosion and is particularly sensitive to coastal flooding. The major goal of the paper is to collect data in terms of risk perception by carrying out a field survey on three territorial collectivities, with the aim to enhance the feasibility of the managed retreat operations that will be implemented on this coast in the next years. A total of 700 surveys were collected and several original results can be drawn: the population has a good knowledge of erosion in the area where they live, and this knowledge is key because the territory is vulnerable. Similarly, the respondents have a good knowledge of protection measures, but some are more important than others: for example, the reinforcement of coastal defenses is the most commonly cited strategy to deal with coastal hazards whereas relocation is the second-most-known but least-popular scenario. Several factors influence people’s perception of risk: for example, time spent in the residence and age of residents are two elements contributing to place attachment that must be taken into account before starting to implement any climate adaptation policies.
Abstract
Residents in the Southeast region of the United States are frequently threatened by tornadoes. Previous research indicates that it is important to study the experience of tornado victims to better understand individual risk perception, preparedness, protective action, response, and recovery strategies that contribute to overall community resilience. In this study, we employ an oral-history approach and analyze the lived experience of survivors of an EF3 (on the enhanced Fujita scale) tornado in Jacksonville, Alabama. Using snowball sampling, we conducted in-depth interviews of 25 residents of Jacksonville, Alabama, who experienced the EF3 tornado on 19 March 2018. The recorded interviews were analyzed using qualitative software. Most of the participants described the support system and the range of resources accessible through the network of relations as the critical factors that facilitated recovery and contributed to resilience. The majority also emphasized the importance of being prepared and proactive when addressing future storms, but some of their actions revealed that they were also used to being reactive. The participants were either long-term residents (homeowners) or transient college students (renters), and the data gave insight into different recovery paths and challenges. Further, findings revealed ongoing trauma and recovery challenges due to the extensive, unexpected damage and the lack of temporary housing and contractor availability often associated with small, rural towns. This research aims to provide a scientific basis for improved efforts in preparedness and protective actions as well as in response and recovery strategies in tornado events and for identifying factors of community resilience in tornado-prone areas.
Significance Statement
Grounded in the narratives and reflections of the participants on their tornado experiences, the oral-history interviews generated important insights into psychological–behavioral responses to a disaster, as well as key building blocks of resilience, adding to the body of research surrounding disaster impact and vulnerability, especially for small, rural towns. The preserved voices, stories, and social memory are expected to benefit current and future generations of the community facing similar threats. The findings of this study will further help to inform better practice of local emergency managers and government officials for promoting public awareness of tornadoes and other weather-related risks so as to be more prepared for future extreme weather events.
Abstract
Residents in the Southeast region of the United States are frequently threatened by tornadoes. Previous research indicates that it is important to study the experience of tornado victims to better understand individual risk perception, preparedness, protective action, response, and recovery strategies that contribute to overall community resilience. In this study, we employ an oral-history approach and analyze the lived experience of survivors of an EF3 (on the enhanced Fujita scale) tornado in Jacksonville, Alabama. Using snowball sampling, we conducted in-depth interviews of 25 residents of Jacksonville, Alabama, who experienced the EF3 tornado on 19 March 2018. The recorded interviews were analyzed using qualitative software. Most of the participants described the support system and the range of resources accessible through the network of relations as the critical factors that facilitated recovery and contributed to resilience. The majority also emphasized the importance of being prepared and proactive when addressing future storms, but some of their actions revealed that they were also used to being reactive. The participants were either long-term residents (homeowners) or transient college students (renters), and the data gave insight into different recovery paths and challenges. Further, findings revealed ongoing trauma and recovery challenges due to the extensive, unexpected damage and the lack of temporary housing and contractor availability often associated with small, rural towns. This research aims to provide a scientific basis for improved efforts in preparedness and protective actions as well as in response and recovery strategies in tornado events and for identifying factors of community resilience in tornado-prone areas.
Significance Statement
Grounded in the narratives and reflections of the participants on their tornado experiences, the oral-history interviews generated important insights into psychological–behavioral responses to a disaster, as well as key building blocks of resilience, adding to the body of research surrounding disaster impact and vulnerability, especially for small, rural towns. The preserved voices, stories, and social memory are expected to benefit current and future generations of the community facing similar threats. The findings of this study will further help to inform better practice of local emergency managers and government officials for promoting public awareness of tornadoes and other weather-related risks so as to be more prepared for future extreme weather events.
Abstract
The interaction between climate change, agriculture, and financial markets is a topic that has been researched relatively little thus far. This paper intends to extend the literature by empirically testing the relationships between droughts and farms’ financing choices (measured in terms of real debt and equity) in New Zealand. Using microeconomic farm-level financial records available from the tax authorities, we quantify how past droughts (measured by the New Zealand pasture growth index) impact farms’ financing choices. We show a statistically significant positive impact of droughts on short-term and long-term debts, equity for dairy farms, and short-term debt for sheep and beef farms.
Abstract
The interaction between climate change, agriculture, and financial markets is a topic that has been researched relatively little thus far. This paper intends to extend the literature by empirically testing the relationships between droughts and farms’ financing choices (measured in terms of real debt and equity) in New Zealand. Using microeconomic farm-level financial records available from the tax authorities, we quantify how past droughts (measured by the New Zealand pasture growth index) impact farms’ financing choices. We show a statistically significant positive impact of droughts on short-term and long-term debts, equity for dairy farms, and short-term debt for sheep and beef farms.
Abstract
Sustainability of rain-fed agriculture in semiarid regions is being threatened by climate variability and change. Weather and climate information (WCI) can be used to reduce the effects of this threat on agricultural production. WCI may be available, but is it readily accessible and communicated/disseminated efficiently to intended end users? Are stakeholders able to interpret the information to correctly inform decision-making? To answer these questions, in view of intermediate stakeholders (service providers to farmers), a study was carried out in two districts of the Midlands Province of Zimbabwe to identify the type and sources of WCI received by these stakeholders as well as constraints and opportunities to access, interpretation, and use of WCI. The study sample was drawn from the Midlands Provincial Drought Relief Committee, a link between the sources of WCI and the smallholder farmers. A questionnaire pretested for clarity and checked for internal consistency of themes using the standardized Cronbach’s alpha was used to collect data. Descriptive statistics were generated using SPSS (version 20.0). Findings were that WCI was sometimes not readily available or was received late. Approximately 36% of the intermediate stakeholders (service providers) passed on WCI to farmers in its original form, from the main source the Meteorological Services Department. It was also unfortunate to discover that 36% of the respondents had challenges interpreting WCI. Impediments to the use of WCI by farmers included scientific information not aligning with indigenous information, which is better understood by farmers, and lack of trust in WCI. It is imperative to improve access to WCI and to train stakeholders on interpretation and dissemination of WCI.
Significance Statement
Weather and climate information—if accurate, accessible, provided in a timely manner, and well understood—can be helpful in the farm decision-making process. Its usefulness is becoming more important with increased climatic variability and change. This paper highlights the challenges and opportunities for service providers in communicating and disseminating WCI. We believe that findings from the study will give direction to efficient utilization of the information by the various end users, for which smallholder farmers are the majority in most developing countries.
Abstract
Sustainability of rain-fed agriculture in semiarid regions is being threatened by climate variability and change. Weather and climate information (WCI) can be used to reduce the effects of this threat on agricultural production. WCI may be available, but is it readily accessible and communicated/disseminated efficiently to intended end users? Are stakeholders able to interpret the information to correctly inform decision-making? To answer these questions, in view of intermediate stakeholders (service providers to farmers), a study was carried out in two districts of the Midlands Province of Zimbabwe to identify the type and sources of WCI received by these stakeholders as well as constraints and opportunities to access, interpretation, and use of WCI. The study sample was drawn from the Midlands Provincial Drought Relief Committee, a link between the sources of WCI and the smallholder farmers. A questionnaire pretested for clarity and checked for internal consistency of themes using the standardized Cronbach’s alpha was used to collect data. Descriptive statistics were generated using SPSS (version 20.0). Findings were that WCI was sometimes not readily available or was received late. Approximately 36% of the intermediate stakeholders (service providers) passed on WCI to farmers in its original form, from the main source the Meteorological Services Department. It was also unfortunate to discover that 36% of the respondents had challenges interpreting WCI. Impediments to the use of WCI by farmers included scientific information not aligning with indigenous information, which is better understood by farmers, and lack of trust in WCI. It is imperative to improve access to WCI and to train stakeholders on interpretation and dissemination of WCI.
Significance Statement
Weather and climate information—if accurate, accessible, provided in a timely manner, and well understood—can be helpful in the farm decision-making process. Its usefulness is becoming more important with increased climatic variability and change. This paper highlights the challenges and opportunities for service providers in communicating and disseminating WCI. We believe that findings from the study will give direction to efficient utilization of the information by the various end users, for which smallholder farmers are the majority in most developing countries.
Abstract
Climate change adaptation planning and implementation have proliferated over the past years. However, we still lack an understanding of how society adapts itself outside of policy sectors and as part of what some refer to as “autonomous adaptation.” The way people respond to risk without deliberate interventions of public actors is not well understood. Given the increasing occurrence of climatic changes that affect our daily lives, the topic is regaining attention with an emphasis on behavioral adaptation. This angle, however, does little to enhance our understanding of how society adapts collectively and which practices and routines groups choose to adopt. This study investigates autonomous heat-stress adaptation efforts in two small towns in Germany. Autonomous heat-stress adaptation is approached through a lens of (social) adaptation practices. Small towns are understudied in adaptation research and have played only a minor role when it comes to public adaptation planning due to their lack of formal resources to develop public adaptation strategies. Based on empirical data, consisting of qualitative problem-centered interviews and a quantitative survey, concrete examples of (social) adaptation practices are identified and classified. The presented classification of practices goes beyond earlier attempts by generating insights on the role politics can play in providing a fruitful ground for enabling autonomous adaptation. The paper emphasizes the need for researchers and decision-makers to take a closer look at the wide variety of social adaptation practices already in place. This discloses insights on public–private adaptation mixes, which could ultimately also lift autonomous adaptation from its ad hoc and reactive nature.
Significance Statement
Social adaptation practices are not yet at the center of research and decision-making. We believe that adding practice-based approaches to adaptation governance widens the debate on who is vulnerable and possible coping mechanisms from within society. It shows that vulnerability and adaptation lie in people’s everyday actions. We provide a first classification of heat-health adaptation practices according to their heat-health target, the involved individuals and actors, the degree of coordination involved, and the spatial and temporal scales. This classification draws attention to potential governance leverage points to initiate heat-adaptation practices. Focusing more strongly on already-in-use and possible heat-health adaptation practices puts citizens’ wants and needs at the center of adaptation governance by including them directly in the adaptation process. This can be of special interest for small towns that want to introduce citizen-based approaches to heat-risk adaptation.
Abstract
Climate change adaptation planning and implementation have proliferated over the past years. However, we still lack an understanding of how society adapts itself outside of policy sectors and as part of what some refer to as “autonomous adaptation.” The way people respond to risk without deliberate interventions of public actors is not well understood. Given the increasing occurrence of climatic changes that affect our daily lives, the topic is regaining attention with an emphasis on behavioral adaptation. This angle, however, does little to enhance our understanding of how society adapts collectively and which practices and routines groups choose to adopt. This study investigates autonomous heat-stress adaptation efforts in two small towns in Germany. Autonomous heat-stress adaptation is approached through a lens of (social) adaptation practices. Small towns are understudied in adaptation research and have played only a minor role when it comes to public adaptation planning due to their lack of formal resources to develop public adaptation strategies. Based on empirical data, consisting of qualitative problem-centered interviews and a quantitative survey, concrete examples of (social) adaptation practices are identified and classified. The presented classification of practices goes beyond earlier attempts by generating insights on the role politics can play in providing a fruitful ground for enabling autonomous adaptation. The paper emphasizes the need for researchers and decision-makers to take a closer look at the wide variety of social adaptation practices already in place. This discloses insights on public–private adaptation mixes, which could ultimately also lift autonomous adaptation from its ad hoc and reactive nature.
Significance Statement
Social adaptation practices are not yet at the center of research and decision-making. We believe that adding practice-based approaches to adaptation governance widens the debate on who is vulnerable and possible coping mechanisms from within society. It shows that vulnerability and adaptation lie in people’s everyday actions. We provide a first classification of heat-health adaptation practices according to their heat-health target, the involved individuals and actors, the degree of coordination involved, and the spatial and temporal scales. This classification draws attention to potential governance leverage points to initiate heat-adaptation practices. Focusing more strongly on already-in-use and possible heat-health adaptation practices puts citizens’ wants and needs at the center of adaptation governance by including them directly in the adaptation process. This can be of special interest for small towns that want to introduce citizen-based approaches to heat-risk adaptation.
Abstract
Wildfires that posed an immediate threat to life and property during the period 1933–2021 were examined across the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. Such fires were identified in local, state, and federal data archives and other sources that yielded 150 events for analysis. A subset of those fires was sorted into one of two synoptic-scale patterns associated with an autumn-season offshore-directed low-level flow regime and a summer-season non-offshore-directed low-level flow regime. Proximity analysis soundings near the offshore wind-driven wildfires frequently displayed ingredients that supported gap and mountain-wave development, which were responsible for generating fast-moving wildfires, long-distance spotting, and firebrand showers that resulted in loss of life and property. Paradoxically, the most extreme combinations of strong winds and low relative humidity were observed near high-population centers in Southern California, yet the most destructive and deadly fires were in less-populated regions of northern California and western Oregon. Additional analysis of 40 Fire Behavior Fuel Models data, housing development in the wildland–urban interface, and U.S. census demographic information revealed that the northern California and western Oregon wildfires were associated with more devastating outcomes because 1) a higher ratio of communities were intermixed with flammable fuels, 2) fire ignitions of an electrical origin occurred in wind-prone corridors that were upstream from communities, and 3) communities in northern California and western Oregon were composed of a greater percentage of socially vulnerable people such as the elderly who were less capable of perceiving and evading intense rapidly evolving wildfires.
Abstract
Wildfires that posed an immediate threat to life and property during the period 1933–2021 were examined across the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. Such fires were identified in local, state, and federal data archives and other sources that yielded 150 events for analysis. A subset of those fires was sorted into one of two synoptic-scale patterns associated with an autumn-season offshore-directed low-level flow regime and a summer-season non-offshore-directed low-level flow regime. Proximity analysis soundings near the offshore wind-driven wildfires frequently displayed ingredients that supported gap and mountain-wave development, which were responsible for generating fast-moving wildfires, long-distance spotting, and firebrand showers that resulted in loss of life and property. Paradoxically, the most extreme combinations of strong winds and low relative humidity were observed near high-population centers in Southern California, yet the most destructive and deadly fires were in less-populated regions of northern California and western Oregon. Additional analysis of 40 Fire Behavior Fuel Models data, housing development in the wildland–urban interface, and U.S. census demographic information revealed that the northern California and western Oregon wildfires were associated with more devastating outcomes because 1) a higher ratio of communities were intermixed with flammable fuels, 2) fire ignitions of an electrical origin occurred in wind-prone corridors that were upstream from communities, and 3) communities in northern California and western Oregon were composed of a greater percentage of socially vulnerable people such as the elderly who were less capable of perceiving and evading intense rapidly evolving wildfires.
Abstract
Tornado watches are issued by the National Weather Service when conditions are favorable for tornado formation. Individuals’ responses to a tornado watch may affect their ability to seek shelter before a tornado strikes. Here, survey data of Tennessee residents were used to determine common patterns in intended responses to two tornado watch scenarios: one during daytime, and the other at nighttime. Three common patterns were identified for a daytime watch: doing nothing, seeking information using technology, or seeking shelter and praying for safety. The two patterns for a nighttime watch were either to do nothing or to react actively by seeking further information, seeking shelter, and contacting friends and family. Logistic regressions indicated younger participants, those with prior tornado experience, and those who understood a tornado watch were less likely to intend to seek shelter and pray for safety during the daytime. Older participants and those without strong self-efficacy beliefs were less likely to use technology to find further information. For the nighttime scenario, participants living in east Tennessee and those who believed that bodies of water provide protection from tornadoes were more likely to respond actively, while wealthier participants and those living in single- or multifamily houses were less likely to respond actively. These results show that intended watch response is influenced by many factors, including age, income, and self-efficacy beliefs, as well as knowledge of and experience with tornadoes. In addition, those who do not understand the meaning of a tornado watch may be more likely to seek shelter prematurely.
Significance Statement
We sought to determine common intended responses to tornado watches, a type of alert that indicates conditions are favorable for tornadoes over the next few hours, among the public. We then analyzed which participant characteristics were associated with these common response types. Age, income, housing type, belief in tornado myths, knowledge of watch terminology, and belief that one’s own actions affect tornado survival likelihood were all significantly associated with common response types. These findings are important for forecasters, broadcasters, and others responsible for alerting the public for severe weather. Clarifying tornado watch terminology, dispelling myths, and specifying where those in mobile homes can find shelter are all important strategies for a better-prepared public.
Abstract
Tornado watches are issued by the National Weather Service when conditions are favorable for tornado formation. Individuals’ responses to a tornado watch may affect their ability to seek shelter before a tornado strikes. Here, survey data of Tennessee residents were used to determine common patterns in intended responses to two tornado watch scenarios: one during daytime, and the other at nighttime. Three common patterns were identified for a daytime watch: doing nothing, seeking information using technology, or seeking shelter and praying for safety. The two patterns for a nighttime watch were either to do nothing or to react actively by seeking further information, seeking shelter, and contacting friends and family. Logistic regressions indicated younger participants, those with prior tornado experience, and those who understood a tornado watch were less likely to intend to seek shelter and pray for safety during the daytime. Older participants and those without strong self-efficacy beliefs were less likely to use technology to find further information. For the nighttime scenario, participants living in east Tennessee and those who believed that bodies of water provide protection from tornadoes were more likely to respond actively, while wealthier participants and those living in single- or multifamily houses were less likely to respond actively. These results show that intended watch response is influenced by many factors, including age, income, and self-efficacy beliefs, as well as knowledge of and experience with tornadoes. In addition, those who do not understand the meaning of a tornado watch may be more likely to seek shelter prematurely.
Significance Statement
We sought to determine common intended responses to tornado watches, a type of alert that indicates conditions are favorable for tornadoes over the next few hours, among the public. We then analyzed which participant characteristics were associated with these common response types. Age, income, housing type, belief in tornado myths, knowledge of watch terminology, and belief that one’s own actions affect tornado survival likelihood were all significantly associated with common response types. These findings are important for forecasters, broadcasters, and others responsible for alerting the public for severe weather. Clarifying tornado watch terminology, dispelling myths, and specifying where those in mobile homes can find shelter are all important strategies for a better-prepared public.
Abstract
In this paper, we study the role of climate change as a financial risk for foreign investors. Multinational enterprises seek to internationalize where financial risk is at the minimum level, including the climate change risk on profitability and productivity. Thereby, we conducted an empirical analysis of the effect of climate change on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows using data from 200 countries and times series from 1970 to 2020 and employing two categories of climate change indicators: Climatology and climate-related natural hazards. Using the estimation methods of fully modified ordinary least squares and robust weighted least squares, we concluded that the rise of climatology indicators (mean annual temperature and precipitations) negatively impacts inward FDI. Second, we conclude that most climate-related natural hazards (coastal/rural/urban floods, landslides, and cyclones) deter FDI while extreme heat and wildfires show no significant effect. In addition, the results show that the negative impact of climate change is more severe when the host economy depends on agricultural activities and there is no significant investment in research and development as compared with countries that depend on service and manufacturing activities and are more innovative and invest in technology infrastructure. Furthermore, we conclude that poorer host countries experience more severe effects of climate change on FDI than rich countries in terms of GDP per capita.
Significance Statement
The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of climate change on inflows of cross-border capital in 200 countries. In other words, we see if rising temperature and natural hazards related to climate change affect the decision of firms to invest in a given country. The results show that global warming and unstable meteorological indicators deter firms from investing abroad. Equally, natural hazards linked to climate change (coastal/rural/urban floods, landslides, and cyclones) constitute an investment risk. The finding suggests that the deterring effects of climate change are less severe when a given country depends less on agriculture and more on industrial sectors and when that country is more developed and technologically advanced.
Abstract
In this paper, we study the role of climate change as a financial risk for foreign investors. Multinational enterprises seek to internationalize where financial risk is at the minimum level, including the climate change risk on profitability and productivity. Thereby, we conducted an empirical analysis of the effect of climate change on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows using data from 200 countries and times series from 1970 to 2020 and employing two categories of climate change indicators: Climatology and climate-related natural hazards. Using the estimation methods of fully modified ordinary least squares and robust weighted least squares, we concluded that the rise of climatology indicators (mean annual temperature and precipitations) negatively impacts inward FDI. Second, we conclude that most climate-related natural hazards (coastal/rural/urban floods, landslides, and cyclones) deter FDI while extreme heat and wildfires show no significant effect. In addition, the results show that the negative impact of climate change is more severe when the host economy depends on agricultural activities and there is no significant investment in research and development as compared with countries that depend on service and manufacturing activities and are more innovative and invest in technology infrastructure. Furthermore, we conclude that poorer host countries experience more severe effects of climate change on FDI than rich countries in terms of GDP per capita.
Significance Statement
The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effect of climate change on inflows of cross-border capital in 200 countries. In other words, we see if rising temperature and natural hazards related to climate change affect the decision of firms to invest in a given country. The results show that global warming and unstable meteorological indicators deter firms from investing abroad. Equally, natural hazards linked to climate change (coastal/rural/urban floods, landslides, and cyclones) constitute an investment risk. The finding suggests that the deterring effects of climate change are less severe when a given country depends less on agriculture and more on industrial sectors and when that country is more developed and technologically advanced.
Abstract
This paper develops the concept of flood problem framing to understand decision-makers’ priorities in flood risk management in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region in California (LA Metro). Problem frames shape an individual’s preferences for particular management strategies and their future behaviors. While flooding is a complex, multifaceted problem, with multiple causes and multiple impacts, a decision-maker is most likely to manage only those dimensions of flooding about which they are aware or concerned. To evaluate flood decision-makers’ primary concerns related to flood exposure, vulnerability, and management in the LA Metro, we draw on focus groups with flood control districts, city planners, nonprofit organizations, and other flood-related decision-makers. We identify numerous concerns, including concerns about specific types of floods (e.g., fluvial vs pluvial) and impacts to diverse infrastructure and communities. Our analyses demonstrate that flood concerns aggregate into three problem frames: one concerned with large fluvial floods exacerbated by climate change and their housing, economic, and infrastructure impacts; one concerned with pluvial nuisance flooding, pollution, and historic underinvestment in communities; and one concerned with coastal and fluvial flooding’s ecosystem impacts. While each individual typically articulated concerns that overlapped with only one problem frame, each problem frame was discussed by numerous organization types, suggesting low barriers to cross-organizational coordination in flood planning and response. This paper also advances our understanding of flood risk perception in a region that does not face frequent large floods.
Significance Statement
This paper investigates the primary concerns that planners, flood managers, and other decision-makers have about flooding in Southern California. This is important because the way that decision-makers understand flooding shapes the way that they will plan for and respond to flood events. We find that some decision-makers are primarily concerned with large floods affecting large swaths of infrastructure and housing; others are concerned with frequent, small floods that mobilize pollution in low-income areas; and others are concerned with protecting coastal ecosystems during sea level rise. Our results also highlight key priorities for research and practice, including the need for flexible and accessible flood data and education about how to evacuate.
Abstract
This paper develops the concept of flood problem framing to understand decision-makers’ priorities in flood risk management in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region in California (LA Metro). Problem frames shape an individual’s preferences for particular management strategies and their future behaviors. While flooding is a complex, multifaceted problem, with multiple causes and multiple impacts, a decision-maker is most likely to manage only those dimensions of flooding about which they are aware or concerned. To evaluate flood decision-makers’ primary concerns related to flood exposure, vulnerability, and management in the LA Metro, we draw on focus groups with flood control districts, city planners, nonprofit organizations, and other flood-related decision-makers. We identify numerous concerns, including concerns about specific types of floods (e.g., fluvial vs pluvial) and impacts to diverse infrastructure and communities. Our analyses demonstrate that flood concerns aggregate into three problem frames: one concerned with large fluvial floods exacerbated by climate change and their housing, economic, and infrastructure impacts; one concerned with pluvial nuisance flooding, pollution, and historic underinvestment in communities; and one concerned with coastal and fluvial flooding’s ecosystem impacts. While each individual typically articulated concerns that overlapped with only one problem frame, each problem frame was discussed by numerous organization types, suggesting low barriers to cross-organizational coordination in flood planning and response. This paper also advances our understanding of flood risk perception in a region that does not face frequent large floods.
Significance Statement
This paper investigates the primary concerns that planners, flood managers, and other decision-makers have about flooding in Southern California. This is important because the way that decision-makers understand flooding shapes the way that they will plan for and respond to flood events. We find that some decision-makers are primarily concerned with large floods affecting large swaths of infrastructure and housing; others are concerned with frequent, small floods that mobilize pollution in low-income areas; and others are concerned with protecting coastal ecosystems during sea level rise. Our results also highlight key priorities for research and practice, including the need for flexible and accessible flood data and education about how to evacuate.
Abstract
Flash flood disasters pose a constant threat to socioeconomic factors in southeastern China. This study analyzes the risk change of flash floods in the Yantanxi River basin, southeastern China, under five economic scenarios [shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5]. We built a regional flash flood hazard assessment model by combining hydrological and hydrodynamic models with fieldwork. Asset value was used to represent regional exposure, which was spatialized using data from industrial structure and land use. Flash flood risk assessment influenced by economic change was developed using different industry responses to flash floods. The results clarify how economic factors drive flash flood risk changes. The return period of the 2019 flash flood in the Yantanxi River basin is 150 years. In 2019, flash floods affected 5.04% of the river basin; the inundation depth was concentrated at under 2.00 m, resulting in CNY 0.55 billion in economic damage. With economic change, the flash flood risk increases by 91.34% (SSP2—current economic development level) and 94.39% (SSP5—extreme economic development level). This study emphasizes the balance between economic development and disaster management at the river basin scale; in addition, our method provides a reference for risk assessment in flash-flood-prone areas lacking statistical information.
Significance Statement
The mountainous and hilly areas of southeastern China are vulnerable to flash floods, and the region faces a constant threat from flash flood disasters. The analysis of historical flash flood disaster events is a critical step in understanding the current rank of the disaster risk and its changes over time. The Supertyphoon Lekima–extreme precipitation–flash flood chain effects resulted in severe economic damage and casualties within the Yantanxi River basin, Zhejiang Province, in August 2019, thus raising concerns about the characteristics of flash floods within the region. The study results highlight the importance of flood risk management in regional adaptation strategies and provide new information for regional planning and the construction of flood control facilities.
Abstract
Flash flood disasters pose a constant threat to socioeconomic factors in southeastern China. This study analyzes the risk change of flash floods in the Yantanxi River basin, southeastern China, under five economic scenarios [shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); SSP1, SSP2, SSP3, SSP4, and SSP5]. We built a regional flash flood hazard assessment model by combining hydrological and hydrodynamic models with fieldwork. Asset value was used to represent regional exposure, which was spatialized using data from industrial structure and land use. Flash flood risk assessment influenced by economic change was developed using different industry responses to flash floods. The results clarify how economic factors drive flash flood risk changes. The return period of the 2019 flash flood in the Yantanxi River basin is 150 years. In 2019, flash floods affected 5.04% of the river basin; the inundation depth was concentrated at under 2.00 m, resulting in CNY 0.55 billion in economic damage. With economic change, the flash flood risk increases by 91.34% (SSP2—current economic development level) and 94.39% (SSP5—extreme economic development level). This study emphasizes the balance between economic development and disaster management at the river basin scale; in addition, our method provides a reference for risk assessment in flash-flood-prone areas lacking statistical information.
Significance Statement
The mountainous and hilly areas of southeastern China are vulnerable to flash floods, and the region faces a constant threat from flash flood disasters. The analysis of historical flash flood disaster events is a critical step in understanding the current rank of the disaster risk and its changes over time. The Supertyphoon Lekima–extreme precipitation–flash flood chain effects resulted in severe economic damage and casualties within the Yantanxi River basin, Zhejiang Province, in August 2019, thus raising concerns about the characteristics of flash floods within the region. The study results highlight the importance of flood risk management in regional adaptation strategies and provide new information for regional planning and the construction of flood control facilities.
