Browse
Abstract
The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.
Abstract
The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.
Abstract
This study presents a framework to assess climate variability and change through atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) and their link with regional processes across time scales. We evaluate the CP impacts on daily rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula using sea level pressure (SLP) during 1950–2022. Different sensitivity analyses are performed, employing multiple spatial domains and number of patterns. An optimal classification is found in midlatitudes, centered over the Mediterranean basin and covering part of the North Atlantic Ocean, which can identify atmospheric configurations significantly related to discriminated rainfall and temperature anomalies, with clear seasonal behavior. The temporal variability of CPs is studied across time scales showing, e.g., that transitions between patterns are faster in autumn and spring, and that CPs exhibit distinct temporal variability at intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal scales, including significant long-term trends on their frequency. CPs influence temperature and precipitation variations throughout the year. The winter season exhibits the largest atmospheric circulation variability, while the summer is dominated by persistent high-pressure structures—the subtropical Azores high—leading to warm and dry conditions. Based on an interannual correlation analysis, some CPs are significantly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), stronger during winter, indicating the NAO modulation on the regional-to-local climatic features. Overall, this approach arises as a dynamic cross-time-scale framework that can be adapted to specific user needs and levels of regional detail, being useful to study climate drivers for climate change and to perform a process-based evaluation of climate models.
Abstract
This study presents a framework to assess climate variability and change through atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) and their link with regional processes across time scales. We evaluate the CP impacts on daily rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula using sea level pressure (SLP) during 1950–2022. Different sensitivity analyses are performed, employing multiple spatial domains and number of patterns. An optimal classification is found in midlatitudes, centered over the Mediterranean basin and covering part of the North Atlantic Ocean, which can identify atmospheric configurations significantly related to discriminated rainfall and temperature anomalies, with clear seasonal behavior. The temporal variability of CPs is studied across time scales showing, e.g., that transitions between patterns are faster in autumn and spring, and that CPs exhibit distinct temporal variability at intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal scales, including significant long-term trends on their frequency. CPs influence temperature and precipitation variations throughout the year. The winter season exhibits the largest atmospheric circulation variability, while the summer is dominated by persistent high-pressure structures—the subtropical Azores high—leading to warm and dry conditions. Based on an interannual correlation analysis, some CPs are significantly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), stronger during winter, indicating the NAO modulation on the regional-to-local climatic features. Overall, this approach arises as a dynamic cross-time-scale framework that can be adapted to specific user needs and levels of regional detail, being useful to study climate drivers for climate change and to perform a process-based evaluation of climate models.
Abstract
This study examined future changes in the microphysical properties of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido, Japan. A process-tracking model that predicts the mass of the hydrometeors generated by each cloud microphysical process was implemented in a meteorological model. This implementation aimed to analyze the mass fraction of hydrometeors resulting from depositional growth and the riming process to the total mass of surface solid precipitation. Results from pseudo–global warming experiments suggest two potential future changes in the characteristics of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido. First, the rimed particles are expected to increase and be dominant over the west and northwest coast of Hokkaido, where heavy snowfall occurs primarily due to the lake effect. Second, the mass fraction from depositional growth under relatively higher temperatures is expected to increase. This increase is anticipated to be dominant over the eastern part and mountainous area of Hokkaido. Additionally, the fraction of liquid precipitation to total precipitation is expected to increase in the future. These results suggest that the microphysical properties of solid precipitation in Hokkaido are expected to be similar to those observed in the current climate over Hokuriku, the central part of Japan even in warmer climate conditions.
Significance Statement
This study examines potential future changes in the growth processes contributing to surface precipitation particles in Hokkaido, Japan. The surface solid precipitation particles in the western and eastern regions of Hokkaido are mainly generated through depositional growth that occurs within the temperature ranges −36° to −20°C and −20° to −10°C, respectively. A future shift is anticipated, with riming becoming the primary process. This shift suggests that snowfall particles will be heavier than those in the current climate, which would increase the snow-removal workload. The change in precipitation characteristics could influence adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change in cold regions.
Abstract
This study examined future changes in the microphysical properties of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido, Japan. A process-tracking model that predicts the mass of the hydrometeors generated by each cloud microphysical process was implemented in a meteorological model. This implementation aimed to analyze the mass fraction of hydrometeors resulting from depositional growth and the riming process to the total mass of surface solid precipitation. Results from pseudo–global warming experiments suggest two potential future changes in the characteristics of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido. First, the rimed particles are expected to increase and be dominant over the west and northwest coast of Hokkaido, where heavy snowfall occurs primarily due to the lake effect. Second, the mass fraction from depositional growth under relatively higher temperatures is expected to increase. This increase is anticipated to be dominant over the eastern part and mountainous area of Hokkaido. Additionally, the fraction of liquid precipitation to total precipitation is expected to increase in the future. These results suggest that the microphysical properties of solid precipitation in Hokkaido are expected to be similar to those observed in the current climate over Hokuriku, the central part of Japan even in warmer climate conditions.
Significance Statement
This study examines potential future changes in the growth processes contributing to surface precipitation particles in Hokkaido, Japan. The surface solid precipitation particles in the western and eastern regions of Hokkaido are mainly generated through depositional growth that occurs within the temperature ranges −36° to −20°C and −20° to −10°C, respectively. A future shift is anticipated, with riming becoming the primary process. This shift suggests that snowfall particles will be heavier than those in the current climate, which would increase the snow-removal workload. The change in precipitation characteristics could influence adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change in cold regions.
Abstract
We analyze biases in subseasonal forecast models and their effect on Southwest United States (SWUS) precipitation prediction (2–6-week time scale). Cluster analyses identify three primary wave trains associated with SWUS precipitation: a meridional El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–type wave train, an arching Pacific–North American (PNA)–type wave train, and a circumglobal zonal wave train. Compared to reanalysis, the models overrepresent the arching pattern, underrepresent the zonal pattern, and produce mixed results for the meridional pattern. The arching pattern overrepresentation is linked to model mean flow biases in the midlatitude–subpolar North Pacific, which cause a westward retraction of the region of forbidden linear Rossby wave propagation. The zonal pattern underrepresentation is linked to westerly biases in the subtropical jet, which cause a westward retraction of the waveguide in the midlatitude eastern North Pacific and divert wave trains southward. These results are confirmed using linear, barotropic ray-tracing analysis. In addition to mean state biases, the models also contain errors in their representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Tropical convection anomalies associated with the MJO are too weak and incoherent at lead times greater than 2 weeks when compared to reanalysis. Additionally, there is a strong SWUS precipitation signal as far out as 5 weeks after a strong MJO in reanalysis, associated with its persistent eastward propagation, but this signal is absent in the models. Our results indicate that there is still significant room for improvement in subseasonal predictions if we can reduce model biases in the background flow and improve the representation of the MJO.
Abstract
We analyze biases in subseasonal forecast models and their effect on Southwest United States (SWUS) precipitation prediction (2–6-week time scale). Cluster analyses identify three primary wave trains associated with SWUS precipitation: a meridional El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–type wave train, an arching Pacific–North American (PNA)–type wave train, and a circumglobal zonal wave train. Compared to reanalysis, the models overrepresent the arching pattern, underrepresent the zonal pattern, and produce mixed results for the meridional pattern. The arching pattern overrepresentation is linked to model mean flow biases in the midlatitude–subpolar North Pacific, which cause a westward retraction of the region of forbidden linear Rossby wave propagation. The zonal pattern underrepresentation is linked to westerly biases in the subtropical jet, which cause a westward retraction of the waveguide in the midlatitude eastern North Pacific and divert wave trains southward. These results are confirmed using linear, barotropic ray-tracing analysis. In addition to mean state biases, the models also contain errors in their representation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Tropical convection anomalies associated with the MJO are too weak and incoherent at lead times greater than 2 weeks when compared to reanalysis. Additionally, there is a strong SWUS precipitation signal as far out as 5 weeks after a strong MJO in reanalysis, associated with its persistent eastward propagation, but this signal is absent in the models. Our results indicate that there is still significant room for improvement in subseasonal predictions if we can reduce model biases in the background flow and improve the representation of the MJO.
Abstract
This study explores the performance of a dense optical flow method in comparison to pattern-matching techniques for retrieving atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from water vapor images. Using high-resolution simulated datasets that represent various weather phenomena, we assess the performance of these methods across different weather regimes, time intervals, and pressure levels and quantify the uncertainties associated with retrieved winds. The optical flow algorithm consistently outperforms the feature matching approach. Notably, it produces wind speeds and AMVs that closely resemble the wind fields from the simulations, and unlike the feature matching algorithm, the optical flow algorithm exhibits consistent performance across different time intervals. In contrast, the feature matching approach yields vector fields that exhibit oversmoothing in certain areas and erratic behavior in others, while also producing less detailed, regionally constant speed maps. Furthermore, unlike feature matching, the optical flow method effectively calculates AMV near regions with missing data, generating a dense AMV field for every pixel in a pair of images. This superior performance and flexibility significantly influence the planning for future satellite missions aimed at retrieving atmospheric winds. As such, our work plays a critical role in determining the mission architecture and projected instrument performance for future atmospheric wind retrieval satellite missions. The study underscores the potential of the optical flow algorithm as a robust and efficient approach for atmospheric motion retrieval, thus contributing to advances in climate research and weather prediction.
Significance Statement
This research investigates the efficacy of two methods, optical flow and feature matching, for detecting atmospheric winds, referred to as atmospheric motion vectors, from satellite images of water vapor. Employing detailed simulated datasets that replicate real-world weather patterns, we found that optical flow consistently outperforms feature matching in various aspects. Notably, the optical flow method is not only more precise but also maintains its accuracy across different scenarios. These insights are critical for the design of future satellite missions focused on advancing our understanding of the atmosphere and enhancing weather predictions. This study contributes to advancements in climate research and supports improved weather forecasting, benefiting both scientific and societal needs.
Abstract
This study explores the performance of a dense optical flow method in comparison to pattern-matching techniques for retrieving atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) from water vapor images. Using high-resolution simulated datasets that represent various weather phenomena, we assess the performance of these methods across different weather regimes, time intervals, and pressure levels and quantify the uncertainties associated with retrieved winds. The optical flow algorithm consistently outperforms the feature matching approach. Notably, it produces wind speeds and AMVs that closely resemble the wind fields from the simulations, and unlike the feature matching algorithm, the optical flow algorithm exhibits consistent performance across different time intervals. In contrast, the feature matching approach yields vector fields that exhibit oversmoothing in certain areas and erratic behavior in others, while also producing less detailed, regionally constant speed maps. Furthermore, unlike feature matching, the optical flow method effectively calculates AMV near regions with missing data, generating a dense AMV field for every pixel in a pair of images. This superior performance and flexibility significantly influence the planning for future satellite missions aimed at retrieving atmospheric winds. As such, our work plays a critical role in determining the mission architecture and projected instrument performance for future atmospheric wind retrieval satellite missions. The study underscores the potential of the optical flow algorithm as a robust and efficient approach for atmospheric motion retrieval, thus contributing to advances in climate research and weather prediction.
Significance Statement
This research investigates the efficacy of two methods, optical flow and feature matching, for detecting atmospheric winds, referred to as atmospheric motion vectors, from satellite images of water vapor. Employing detailed simulated datasets that replicate real-world weather patterns, we found that optical flow consistently outperforms feature matching in various aspects. Notably, the optical flow method is not only more precise but also maintains its accuracy across different scenarios. These insights are critical for the design of future satellite missions focused on advancing our understanding of the atmosphere and enhancing weather predictions. This study contributes to advancements in climate research and supports improved weather forecasting, benefiting both scientific and societal needs.
Abstract
In this article, we examine the time-series properties of the temperatures in Latin America. We look at the presence of time trends in the context of potential long-memory processes, looking at the average, maximum, and minimum values from 1901 to 2021. Our results indicate that when looking at the average data, there is a tendency to return to the mean value in all cases. However, it is noted that in the cases of Guatemala, Mexico, and Brazil, which are the countries with the highest degree of integration, the process of reversion could take longer than in the remaining countries. We also point out that the time trend coefficient is significantly positive in practically all cases, especially in temperatures in the Caribbean islands such as Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, and the British Virgin Islands. When analyzing the maximum and minimum temperatures, the highest degrees of integration are observed in the minimum values, and the highest values are obtained again in Brazil, Guatemala, and Mexico. The time trend coefficients are significantly positive in almost all cases, with the only two exceptions being Bolivia and Paraguay. Looking at the range (i.e., the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures), evidence of orders of integration above 0.5 is found in nine countries (Aruba, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Venezuela), implying that shocks in the range will take longer to disappear than in the rest of the countries.
Abstract
In this article, we examine the time-series properties of the temperatures in Latin America. We look at the presence of time trends in the context of potential long-memory processes, looking at the average, maximum, and minimum values from 1901 to 2021. Our results indicate that when looking at the average data, there is a tendency to return to the mean value in all cases. However, it is noted that in the cases of Guatemala, Mexico, and Brazil, which are the countries with the highest degree of integration, the process of reversion could take longer than in the remaining countries. We also point out that the time trend coefficient is significantly positive in practically all cases, especially in temperatures in the Caribbean islands such as Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, and the British Virgin Islands. When analyzing the maximum and minimum temperatures, the highest degrees of integration are observed in the minimum values, and the highest values are obtained again in Brazil, Guatemala, and Mexico. The time trend coefficients are significantly positive in almost all cases, with the only two exceptions being Bolivia and Paraguay. Looking at the range (i.e., the difference between maximum and minimum temperatures), evidence of orders of integration above 0.5 is found in nine countries (Aruba, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Venezuela), implying that shocks in the range will take longer to disappear than in the rest of the countries.
Abstract
The characteristics of modulated internal solitary waves (ISWs) under the influence of one mesoscale eddy pair in the Luzon Strait, involving one anticyclonic eddy (AE) and one cyclonic eddy (CE) induced by the Kuroshio intrusion, were investigated using a nested high-resolution numerical model in the northeastern South China Sea (SCS). The presence of mesoscale eddies greatly impacts the nonlinear evolution of type-a and type-b ISWs. The eddy pair contributes to distinct wave properties and energy evolutions. Compared to type-b waves, type-a waves display more pronounced modulatory characteristics with a larger spatial scale. CE currents and horizontal inhomogeneous stratification are crucial in modulating the wave behaviors, which induce extremely large-amplitude depression ISWs. The AE thereafter yields retardation effects on the wave energy evolution. The average depth-integrated available potential and kinetic energy showed relative growth rates of −66.12% and −46.07%, respectively, for type-a waves, and −24.26% and −20.15%, respectively, for type-b waves along the propagation path up to the AE core. The deformed and distorted ISW crest lines propagating further northward exhibit a more dramatic shoaling evolution. The maximum total energies of type-a and type-b waves at the north station are approximately 13.5 and 3.5 times, respectively, greater than those at the south station on the continental shelf of the Dongsha Atoll. This work provides essential insights into modulated ISW dynamics under the mesoscale eddy pair within the northeastern SCS deep basin.
Abstract
The characteristics of modulated internal solitary waves (ISWs) under the influence of one mesoscale eddy pair in the Luzon Strait, involving one anticyclonic eddy (AE) and one cyclonic eddy (CE) induced by the Kuroshio intrusion, were investigated using a nested high-resolution numerical model in the northeastern South China Sea (SCS). The presence of mesoscale eddies greatly impacts the nonlinear evolution of type-a and type-b ISWs. The eddy pair contributes to distinct wave properties and energy evolutions. Compared to type-b waves, type-a waves display more pronounced modulatory characteristics with a larger spatial scale. CE currents and horizontal inhomogeneous stratification are crucial in modulating the wave behaviors, which induce extremely large-amplitude depression ISWs. The AE thereafter yields retardation effects on the wave energy evolution. The average depth-integrated available potential and kinetic energy showed relative growth rates of −66.12% and −46.07%, respectively, for type-a waves, and −24.26% and −20.15%, respectively, for type-b waves along the propagation path up to the AE core. The deformed and distorted ISW crest lines propagating further northward exhibit a more dramatic shoaling evolution. The maximum total energies of type-a and type-b waves at the north station are approximately 13.5 and 3.5 times, respectively, greater than those at the south station on the continental shelf of the Dongsha Atoll. This work provides essential insights into modulated ISW dynamics under the mesoscale eddy pair within the northeastern SCS deep basin.
Quality Control of Geostationary Lightning Mapper Observations for Tropical Cyclone ApplicationsAbstract
The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) has been providing unprecedented observations of total lightning since becoming operational in 2017. The potential for GLM observations to be used for forecasting and analyzing tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity has been complicated by inconsistencies in the GLM data from a number of artifacts. The algorithm that processes raw GLM data has improved with time; however, the need for a consistent long-term dataset has motivated the development of quality control (QC) techniques to help remove clear artifacts such as blooming events, spurious false lightning, “bar” effects, and sun glint. Simple QC methods are applied that include scaled maximum energy thresholds and minima in the variance of lightning group area and group energy. QC and anomaly detection methods based on machine learning (ML) are also explored. Each QC method is successfully able to remove artifacts in the GLM observations while maintaining the fidelity of the GLM observations within TCs. As the GLM processing algorithm has improved with time, the amount of QC flagged lightning within 100 km of Atlantic TCs is reduced, from 70% during 2017, to 10% in 2018, to 2% during 2021. These QC methods are relevant to the design of ML-based forecasting techniques which could pick up on artifacts rather than the signal of interest in TCs if QC was not applied beforehand.
Significance Statement
The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) provides total lightning observations in tropical cyclones that can benefit forecasts of intensity change. However, nonlightning artifacts in GLM observations make interpreting lightning observations challenging for automated techniques to predict intensity change. Quality control procedures have been developed to aid the TC community in using GLM observations for statistical and pattern-matching techniques.
Abstract
The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) has been providing unprecedented observations of total lightning since becoming operational in 2017. The potential for GLM observations to be used for forecasting and analyzing tropical cyclone (TC) structure and intensity has been complicated by inconsistencies in the GLM data from a number of artifacts. The algorithm that processes raw GLM data has improved with time; however, the need for a consistent long-term dataset has motivated the development of quality control (QC) techniques to help remove clear artifacts such as blooming events, spurious false lightning, “bar” effects, and sun glint. Simple QC methods are applied that include scaled maximum energy thresholds and minima in the variance of lightning group area and group energy. QC and anomaly detection methods based on machine learning (ML) are also explored. Each QC method is successfully able to remove artifacts in the GLM observations while maintaining the fidelity of the GLM observations within TCs. As the GLM processing algorithm has improved with time, the amount of QC flagged lightning within 100 km of Atlantic TCs is reduced, from 70% during 2017, to 10% in 2018, to 2% during 2021. These QC methods are relevant to the design of ML-based forecasting techniques which could pick up on artifacts rather than the signal of interest in TCs if QC was not applied beforehand.
Significance Statement
The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) provides total lightning observations in tropical cyclones that can benefit forecasts of intensity change. However, nonlightning artifacts in GLM observations make interpreting lightning observations challenging for automated techniques to predict intensity change. Quality control procedures have been developed to aid the TC community in using GLM observations for statistical and pattern-matching techniques.
Abstract
The ERA5 reanalysis during cold months (November–March) of 1979–2020 was used for determining four cluster centroids through the k-means for classifying regional anomalies of the daily geopotential height at 500 hPa (H500) over northeastern China. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was used to reduce dimensionality. Four clusters were linked to the EOF patterns with clear meteorological meanings, which are associated with the evolution of ridges and troughs over northeastern China. Those systems relate to warm and cold advections at 850 hPa. In each H500 cluster, the advection is the major contributor leading to temperature changes at 850 hPa, which significantly relates to the changes and anomalies of daily minimum air temperature at 2 m (T2min). Furthermore, the jet activities over Asia relate to more or less occurrence of specific H500 clusters in jet phases. This is because anomalous westerlies are generally in favor of positive anomalies of the vorticity tendency at 500 hPa. For the reforecasts during 2004–19 in the Chinese Meteorology Administration (CMA) S2S model, the hit rates above 50% for all the H500 clusters are within 9.5 days, which are in between those for the first two and the last two clusters. The correct prediction of H500 anomalies improves the T2min prediction up to 12 days, compared with 8 days for the incorrect one. The good prediction of the jet activities leads to a more accurate prediction of H500 anomalies. Therefore, improvement of the model prediction of jet activities and H500 anomalies will lead to better prediction of winter weather near the ground over northeastern China.
Abstract
The ERA5 reanalysis during cold months (November–March) of 1979–2020 was used for determining four cluster centroids through the k-means for classifying regional anomalies of the daily geopotential height at 500 hPa (H500) over northeastern China. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was used to reduce dimensionality. Four clusters were linked to the EOF patterns with clear meteorological meanings, which are associated with the evolution of ridges and troughs over northeastern China. Those systems relate to warm and cold advections at 850 hPa. In each H500 cluster, the advection is the major contributor leading to temperature changes at 850 hPa, which significantly relates to the changes and anomalies of daily minimum air temperature at 2 m (T2min). Furthermore, the jet activities over Asia relate to more or less occurrence of specific H500 clusters in jet phases. This is because anomalous westerlies are generally in favor of positive anomalies of the vorticity tendency at 500 hPa. For the reforecasts during 2004–19 in the Chinese Meteorology Administration (CMA) S2S model, the hit rates above 50% for all the H500 clusters are within 9.5 days, which are in between those for the first two and the last two clusters. The correct prediction of H500 anomalies improves the T2min prediction up to 12 days, compared with 8 days for the incorrect one. The good prediction of the jet activities leads to a more accurate prediction of H500 anomalies. Therefore, improvement of the model prediction of jet activities and H500 anomalies will lead to better prediction of winter weather near the ground over northeastern China.
Abstract
Aggregation efficiency in the upper troposphere is highly uncertain because of the lack of laboratory experiments and aircraft measurements, especially at atmospheric temperatures below −30°C. Aggregation is physically broken down into collision and sticking. In this study, theory-based parameterizations for the collision efficiency and sticking efficiency are newly implemented into a double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme. Satellite observations of the global ice cloud distribution are used to evaluate the aggregation efficiency modeling. Sensitivity experiments of 9-day global simulations using a high-resolution climate model show that the use of collision efficiency parameterization causes a slight increase in the cloud ice amount above the freezing level over the tropics to midlatitudes and that the use of our new sticking efficiency parameterization causes a significant increase in the cloud ice amount and a slight decrease in the snow amount particularly in the upper troposphere over the tropics. The increase/decrease in the cloud ice/snow amount in the upper troposphere over the tropics is consistent with the vertical profile of radar echoes. Moreover, the ice fraction of the cloud optical thickness is still underestimated worldwide. Finally, the cloud radiative forcing increases over the tropics to reduce the bias in the radiation budget. These results indicate that our new aggregation efficiency modeling reasonably functions even at atmospheric temperatures below −30°C; however, further improvements in the ice cloud modeling are needed.
Significance Statement
Long-standing biases in the radiative budget in climate models indicate the existence of a missing mechanism to realistically represent the ice cloud growth in the upper troposphere. This study focuses on aggregation efficiency, which has been assumed to be a tuning parameter to optimize the global radiative budget. Therefore, this study employs a theory-based parameterization to calculate the aggregation efficiency. According to the parameterization, aggregation efficiency in high clouds varies by the growth stage of the individual ice particles. As a result, small ice crystals are likely to grow more slowly, and the lifetime of cirrus clouds is prolonged to enhance cloud radiative forcing, particularly over the tropics. These results are promising for reducing the biases observed in climate models.
Abstract
Aggregation efficiency in the upper troposphere is highly uncertain because of the lack of laboratory experiments and aircraft measurements, especially at atmospheric temperatures below −30°C. Aggregation is physically broken down into collision and sticking. In this study, theory-based parameterizations for the collision efficiency and sticking efficiency are newly implemented into a double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme. Satellite observations of the global ice cloud distribution are used to evaluate the aggregation efficiency modeling. Sensitivity experiments of 9-day global simulations using a high-resolution climate model show that the use of collision efficiency parameterization causes a slight increase in the cloud ice amount above the freezing level over the tropics to midlatitudes and that the use of our new sticking efficiency parameterization causes a significant increase in the cloud ice amount and a slight decrease in the snow amount particularly in the upper troposphere over the tropics. The increase/decrease in the cloud ice/snow amount in the upper troposphere over the tropics is consistent with the vertical profile of radar echoes. Moreover, the ice fraction of the cloud optical thickness is still underestimated worldwide. Finally, the cloud radiative forcing increases over the tropics to reduce the bias in the radiation budget. These results indicate that our new aggregation efficiency modeling reasonably functions even at atmospheric temperatures below −30°C; however, further improvements in the ice cloud modeling are needed.
Significance Statement
Long-standing biases in the radiative budget in climate models indicate the existence of a missing mechanism to realistically represent the ice cloud growth in the upper troposphere. This study focuses on aggregation efficiency, which has been assumed to be a tuning parameter to optimize the global radiative budget. Therefore, this study employs a theory-based parameterization to calculate the aggregation efficiency. According to the parameterization, aggregation efficiency in high clouds varies by the growth stage of the individual ice particles. As a result, small ice crystals are likely to grow more slowly, and the lifetime of cirrus clouds is prolonged to enhance cloud radiative forcing, particularly over the tropics. These results are promising for reducing the biases observed in climate models.
