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Abstract
Maps of the gradient of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) reveal that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) consists of multiple jets or frontal filaments. The braided and patchy nature of the gradient fields seems at odds with the traditional view, derived from hydrographic sections, that the ACC is made up of three continuous circumpolar fronts. By applying a nonlinear fitting procedure to 638 weekly maps of SSH gradient (∇SSH), it is shown that the distribution of maxima in ∇SSH (i.e., fronts) is strongly peaked at particular values of absolute SSH (i.e., streamlines). The association between the jets and particular streamlines persists despite strong topographic and eddy–mean flow interactions, which cause the jets to merge, diverge, and fluctuate in intensity along their path. The SSH values corresponding to each frontal branch are nearly constant over the sector of the Southern Ocean between 100°E and 180°. The front positions inferred from SSH agree closely with positions inferred from hydrographic sections using traditional water mass criteria. Recognition of the multiple branches of the Southern Ocean fronts helps to reconcile differences between front locations determined by previous studies. Weekly maps of SSH are used to characterize the structure and variability of the ACC fronts and filaments. The path, width, and intensity of the frontal branches are influenced strongly by the bathymetry. The “meander envelopes” of the fronts are narrow on the northern slope of topographic ridges, where the sloping topography reinforces the β effect, and broader over abyssal plains.
Abstract
Maps of the gradient of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) reveal that the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) consists of multiple jets or frontal filaments. The braided and patchy nature of the gradient fields seems at odds with the traditional view, derived from hydrographic sections, that the ACC is made up of three continuous circumpolar fronts. By applying a nonlinear fitting procedure to 638 weekly maps of SSH gradient (∇SSH), it is shown that the distribution of maxima in ∇SSH (i.e., fronts) is strongly peaked at particular values of absolute SSH (i.e., streamlines). The association between the jets and particular streamlines persists despite strong topographic and eddy–mean flow interactions, which cause the jets to merge, diverge, and fluctuate in intensity along their path. The SSH values corresponding to each frontal branch are nearly constant over the sector of the Southern Ocean between 100°E and 180°. The front positions inferred from SSH agree closely with positions inferred from hydrographic sections using traditional water mass criteria. Recognition of the multiple branches of the Southern Ocean fronts helps to reconcile differences between front locations determined by previous studies. Weekly maps of SSH are used to characterize the structure and variability of the ACC fronts and filaments. The path, width, and intensity of the frontal branches are influenced strongly by the bathymetry. The “meander envelopes” of the fronts are narrow on the northern slope of topographic ridges, where the sloping topography reinforces the β effect, and broader over abyssal plains.
Abstract
Bottom topography, or more generally the geometry of the ocean basins, is an important ingredient in numerical ocean modeling. With the help of an adjoint model, it is shown that scalar diagnostics or objective functions in a coarse-resolution model, such as the transport through Drake Passage, the strength of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation, the Deacon cell, and the meridional heat transport across 32°S, are sensitive to bottom topography as much as they are to surface boundary conditions. For example, adjoint topography sensitivities of the transport through Drake Passage are large in choke-point areas such as the Crozet–Kerguélen Plateau and south of New Zealand; the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is sensitive to topography in the western boundary region of the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Scotland–Iceland Ridge. Many sensitivities are connected to steep topography and can be interpreted in terms of bottom form stress, that is, the product of bottom pressure and topography gradient. The adjoint sensitivities are found to agree with direct perturbation methods with deviations smaller than 30% for significant perturbations on time scales of 100 yr, so that the assumption of quasi linearity that is implicit in the adjoint method holds. The horizontal resolution of the numerical model affects the sensitivities to bottom topography, but large-scale patterns and the overall impact of changes in topography appear to be robust. The relative impact of changes in topography and surface boundary conditions on the model circulation is estimated by multiplying the adjoint sensitivities with assumed uncertainties. If the uncertainties are correlated in space, changing the surface boundary conditions has a larger impact on the scalar diagnostics than topography does, but the effects can locally be on the same order of magnitude if uncorrelated uncertainties are assumed. In either case, bottom topography variations within their prior uncertainties affect the solution of an ocean circulation model. To this extent, including topography in the control vector can be expected to compensate for identifiable model errors and, thus, to improve the solutions of estimation problems.
Abstract
Bottom topography, or more generally the geometry of the ocean basins, is an important ingredient in numerical ocean modeling. With the help of an adjoint model, it is shown that scalar diagnostics or objective functions in a coarse-resolution model, such as the transport through Drake Passage, the strength of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation, the Deacon cell, and the meridional heat transport across 32°S, are sensitive to bottom topography as much as they are to surface boundary conditions. For example, adjoint topography sensitivities of the transport through Drake Passage are large in choke-point areas such as the Crozet–Kerguélen Plateau and south of New Zealand; the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is sensitive to topography in the western boundary region of the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Scotland–Iceland Ridge. Many sensitivities are connected to steep topography and can be interpreted in terms of bottom form stress, that is, the product of bottom pressure and topography gradient. The adjoint sensitivities are found to agree with direct perturbation methods with deviations smaller than 30% for significant perturbations on time scales of 100 yr, so that the assumption of quasi linearity that is implicit in the adjoint method holds. The horizontal resolution of the numerical model affects the sensitivities to bottom topography, but large-scale patterns and the overall impact of changes in topography appear to be robust. The relative impact of changes in topography and surface boundary conditions on the model circulation is estimated by multiplying the adjoint sensitivities with assumed uncertainties. If the uncertainties are correlated in space, changing the surface boundary conditions has a larger impact on the scalar diagnostics than topography does, but the effects can locally be on the same order of magnitude if uncorrelated uncertainties are assumed. In either case, bottom topography variations within their prior uncertainties affect the solution of an ocean circulation model. To this extent, including topography in the control vector can be expected to compensate for identifiable model errors and, thus, to improve the solutions of estimation problems.
Abstract
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003–November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current’s various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling–assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cmH2O (1 cmH2O ∼ 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cmH2O estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cmH2O (1.1 and 0.6 cmH2O with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of barotropic transport variability per cmH2O of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40°–65°S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.
Abstract
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity data spanning January 2003–November 2005 are used as proxies for ocean bottom pressure (BP) averaged over 1 month, spherical Gaussian caps 500 km in radius, and along paths bracketing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current’s various fronts. The GRACE BP signals are compared with those derived from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean modeling–assimilation system, and to a non-Boussinesq version of the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). The discrepancy found between GRACE and the models is 1.7 cmH2O (1 cmH2O ∼ 1 hPa), slightly lower than the 1.9 cmH2O estimated by the authors independently from propagation of GRACE errors. The northern signals are weak and uncorrelated among basins. The southern signals are strong, with a common seasonality. The seasonal cycle GRACE data observed in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the ACC are consistent, with annual and semiannual amplitudes of 3.6 and 0.6 cmH2O (1.1 and 0.6 cmH2O with ECCO), the average over the full southern path peaks (stronger ACC) in the southern winter, on days of year 197 and 97 for the annual and semiannual components, respectively; the Atlantic Ocean annual peak is 20 days earlier. An approximate conversion factor of 3.1 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) of barotropic transport variability per cmH2O of BP change is estimated. Wind stress data time series from the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT), averaged monthly, zonally, and over the latitude band 40°–65°S, are also constructed and subsampled at the same months as with the GRACE data. The annual and semiannual harmonics of the wind stress peak on days 198 and 82, respectively. A decreasing trend over the 3 yr is observed in the three data types.
Abstract
A coarse-resolution global model with time-invariant circulation is fitted to hydrographic and tracer data by means of the adjoint method. Radiocarbon and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11 and CFC-12) data are included to constrain deep and bottom water transport rates and spreading pathways as well as the strength of the global overturning circulation. It is shown that realistic global ocean distributions of hydrographic parameters and tracers can be obtained simultaneously. The model correctly reproduces the deep ocean radiocarbon field and the concentrations gradients between different basins. The spreading of CFC plumes in the deep and bottom waters is simulated in a realistic way, and the spatial extent as well as the temporal evolution of these plumes agrees well with observations. Radiocarbon and CFC observations place upper bounds on the northward transports of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) into the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Long-term mean AABW transports larger than 5 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) through the Vema and Hunter Channels in the South Atlantic and net AABW transports across 30°S into the Indian Ocean larger than 10 Sv are found to be incompatible with CFC data. The rates of equatorward deep and bottom water transports from the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean are of similar magnitude (15.7 Sv at 50°N and 17.9 Sv at 50°S). Deep and bottom water formation in the Southern Ocean occurs at multiple sites around the Antarctic continent and is not confined to the Weddell Sea. A CFC forecast based on the assumption of unchanged abyssal transports shows that by 2030 the entire deep west Atlantic exhibits CFC-11 concentrations larger than 0.1 pmol kg−1, while most of the deep Indian and Pacific Oceans remain CFC free. By 2020 the predicted CFC concentrations in the deep western boundary current (DWBC) in the North Atlantic exceed surface water concentrations and the vertical CFC gradients start to reverse.
Abstract
A coarse-resolution global model with time-invariant circulation is fitted to hydrographic and tracer data by means of the adjoint method. Radiocarbon and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11 and CFC-12) data are included to constrain deep and bottom water transport rates and spreading pathways as well as the strength of the global overturning circulation. It is shown that realistic global ocean distributions of hydrographic parameters and tracers can be obtained simultaneously. The model correctly reproduces the deep ocean radiocarbon field and the concentrations gradients between different basins. The spreading of CFC plumes in the deep and bottom waters is simulated in a realistic way, and the spatial extent as well as the temporal evolution of these plumes agrees well with observations. Radiocarbon and CFC observations place upper bounds on the northward transports of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) into the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Long-term mean AABW transports larger than 5 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) through the Vema and Hunter Channels in the South Atlantic and net AABW transports across 30°S into the Indian Ocean larger than 10 Sv are found to be incompatible with CFC data. The rates of equatorward deep and bottom water transports from the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean are of similar magnitude (15.7 Sv at 50°N and 17.9 Sv at 50°S). Deep and bottom water formation in the Southern Ocean occurs at multiple sites around the Antarctic continent and is not confined to the Weddell Sea. A CFC forecast based on the assumption of unchanged abyssal transports shows that by 2030 the entire deep west Atlantic exhibits CFC-11 concentrations larger than 0.1 pmol kg−1, while most of the deep Indian and Pacific Oceans remain CFC free. By 2020 the predicted CFC concentrations in the deep western boundary current (DWBC) in the North Atlantic exceed surface water concentrations and the vertical CFC gradients start to reverse.
Abstract
Observations and numerical simulations show that winds near Gibraltar Strait cause an Atlantic Ocean to Mediterranean Sea sea level difference of 20 cm peak to peak with a 3-cm standard deviation for periods of days to years. Theoretical arguments and numerical experiments establish that this wind-driven sea level difference is caused in part by storm surges due to alongshore winds near the North African coastline on the Atlantic side of Gibraltar. The fraction of the Moroccan coastal current offshore of the 284-m isobath is deflected across Gibraltar Strait, west of Camarinal Sill, resulting in a geostrophic surface pressure gradient that contributes to a sea level difference at the stationary limit. The sea level difference is also caused in part by the along-strait wind setup, with a contribution proportional to the along-strait wind stress and to the length of Gibraltar Strait and adjoining regions and inversely proportional to its depth. In the 20–360-day band, average transfer coefficients between the Atlantic–Alboran sea level difference and surface wind stress at 36°N, 6.5°W, estimated from barometrically corrected Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon data and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, are 0.10 ± 0.04 m Pa−1 with 1 ± 5-day lag and 0.19 ± 0.08 m Pa−1 with 5 ± 4-day lag for the zonal and meridional wind stresses, respectively. This transfer function is consistent with equivalent estimates derived from a 1992–2003 high-resolution barotropic simulation forced by the NCEP–NCAR wind stress. The barotropic simulation explains 29% of the observed Atlantic–Alboran sea level difference in the 20–360-day band. In turn, the Alboran and Mediterranean mean sea level time series are highly correlated, ρ = 0.7 in the observations and ρ = 0.8 in the barotropic simulation, hence providing a pathway for winds near Gibraltar Strait to affect the mean sea level of the entire Mediterranean.
Abstract
Observations and numerical simulations show that winds near Gibraltar Strait cause an Atlantic Ocean to Mediterranean Sea sea level difference of 20 cm peak to peak with a 3-cm standard deviation for periods of days to years. Theoretical arguments and numerical experiments establish that this wind-driven sea level difference is caused in part by storm surges due to alongshore winds near the North African coastline on the Atlantic side of Gibraltar. The fraction of the Moroccan coastal current offshore of the 284-m isobath is deflected across Gibraltar Strait, west of Camarinal Sill, resulting in a geostrophic surface pressure gradient that contributes to a sea level difference at the stationary limit. The sea level difference is also caused in part by the along-strait wind setup, with a contribution proportional to the along-strait wind stress and to the length of Gibraltar Strait and adjoining regions and inversely proportional to its depth. In the 20–360-day band, average transfer coefficients between the Atlantic–Alboran sea level difference and surface wind stress at 36°N, 6.5°W, estimated from barometrically corrected Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon data and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, are 0.10 ± 0.04 m Pa−1 with 1 ± 5-day lag and 0.19 ± 0.08 m Pa−1 with 5 ± 4-day lag for the zonal and meridional wind stresses, respectively. This transfer function is consistent with equivalent estimates derived from a 1992–2003 high-resolution barotropic simulation forced by the NCEP–NCAR wind stress. The barotropic simulation explains 29% of the observed Atlantic–Alboran sea level difference in the 20–360-day band. In turn, the Alboran and Mediterranean mean sea level time series are highly correlated, ρ = 0.7 in the observations and ρ = 0.8 in the barotropic simulation, hence providing a pathway for winds near Gibraltar Strait to affect the mean sea level of the entire Mediterranean.
Abstract
The ability of paleoceanographic tracers to constrain rates of transport is examined using an inverse method to combine idealized observations with a geostrophic model. Considered are the spatial distribution, accuracy, and types of tracers required to constrain changes in meridional transport within an idealized single-hemisphere basin. Measurements of density and radioactive tracers each act to constrain rates of transport. Conservative tracers, while not of themselves able to inform regarding rates of transport, improve constraints when coupled with density or radioactive observations. It is found that the tracer data would require an accuracy one order of magnitude better than is presently available for paleo-observations to conclusively rule out factor-of-2 changes in meridional transport, even when assumed available over the entire model domain. When data are available only at the margins and bottom of the model, radiocarbon is unable to constrain transport while density remains effective only when a reference velocity level is assumed. The difficulty in constraining the circulation in this idealized model indicates that placing firm bounds on past meridional transport rates will prove challenging.
Abstract
The ability of paleoceanographic tracers to constrain rates of transport is examined using an inverse method to combine idealized observations with a geostrophic model. Considered are the spatial distribution, accuracy, and types of tracers required to constrain changes in meridional transport within an idealized single-hemisphere basin. Measurements of density and radioactive tracers each act to constrain rates of transport. Conservative tracers, while not of themselves able to inform regarding rates of transport, improve constraints when coupled with density or radioactive observations. It is found that the tracer data would require an accuracy one order of magnitude better than is presently available for paleo-observations to conclusively rule out factor-of-2 changes in meridional transport, even when assumed available over the entire model domain. When data are available only at the margins and bottom of the model, radiocarbon is unable to constrain transport while density remains effective only when a reference velocity level is assumed. The difficulty in constraining the circulation in this idealized model indicates that placing firm bounds on past meridional transport rates will prove challenging.
Abstract
An increase in the circulation of the South Pacific Ocean subtropical gyre, extending from the sea surface to middepth, is observed over 12 years. Datasets used to quantify the decadal gyre spinup include satellite altimetric height, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) hydrographic and float survey of the South Pacific, a repeated hydrographic transect along 170°W, and profiling float data from the global Argo array. The signal in sea surface height is a 12-cm increase between 1993 and 2004, on large spatial scale centered at about 40°S, 170°W. The subsurface datasets show that this signal is predominantly due to density variations in the water column, that is, to deepening of isopycnal surfaces, extending to depths of at least 1800 m. The maximum increase in dynamic height is collocated with the deep center of the subtropical gyre, and the signal represents an increase in the total counterclockwise geostrophic circulation of the gyre, by at least 20% at 1000 m. A comparison of WOCE and Argo float trajectories at 1000 m confirms the gyre spinup during the 1990s. The signals in sea surface height, dynamic height, and velocity all peaked around 2003 and subsequently began to decline. The 1990s increase in wind-driven circulation resulted from decadal intensification of wind stress curl east of New Zealand—variability associated with an increase in the atmosphere’s Southern Hemisphere annular mode. It is suggested (based on altimetric height) that midlatitude gyres in all of the oceans have been affected by variability in the atmospheric annular modes on decadal time scales.
Abstract
An increase in the circulation of the South Pacific Ocean subtropical gyre, extending from the sea surface to middepth, is observed over 12 years. Datasets used to quantify the decadal gyre spinup include satellite altimetric height, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) hydrographic and float survey of the South Pacific, a repeated hydrographic transect along 170°W, and profiling float data from the global Argo array. The signal in sea surface height is a 12-cm increase between 1993 and 2004, on large spatial scale centered at about 40°S, 170°W. The subsurface datasets show that this signal is predominantly due to density variations in the water column, that is, to deepening of isopycnal surfaces, extending to depths of at least 1800 m. The maximum increase in dynamic height is collocated with the deep center of the subtropical gyre, and the signal represents an increase in the total counterclockwise geostrophic circulation of the gyre, by at least 20% at 1000 m. A comparison of WOCE and Argo float trajectories at 1000 m confirms the gyre spinup during the 1990s. The signals in sea surface height, dynamic height, and velocity all peaked around 2003 and subsequently began to decline. The 1990s increase in wind-driven circulation resulted from decadal intensification of wind stress curl east of New Zealand—variability associated with an increase in the atmosphere’s Southern Hemisphere annular mode. It is suggested (based on altimetric height) that midlatitude gyres in all of the oceans have been affected by variability in the atmospheric annular modes on decadal time scales.
Abstract
Single-layer (barotropic) models have been commonly used in studies of the inverted barometer effect and the oceanic response to atmospheric pressure loading. The potential effects of stratification on this response are explored here using a general circulation model in a near-global domain with realistic coasts and bathymetry. Periodic forcing by the diurnal and semidiurnal atmospheric tides and 6-hourly stochastic forcing from weather center analyses are both examined. A global dynamic response (i.e., departures from inverted barometer behavior) is clear in the response to atmospheric tides; for stochastic forcing, the largest dynamic signals occur in shallow and semienclosed regions and at mid- and high latitudes. The influence of stratification in the dynamics is assessed by comparing surface and bottom pressure signals. Baroclinic effects are generally weak, particularly in the response to the large-scale atmospheric tides. Under stochastic forcing, largest differences between surface and bottom pressure signals reach 10%–20% of the surface signals and tend to occur in regions of enhanced topographic gradients. Bottom-intensified, localized interactions with topography seem to be involved. Enhanced baroclinicity is also seen at low latitudes, where stratification effects are also felt in the upper ocean. General implications for modeling the ocean response to high-frequency atmospheric and tidal forcing are discussed.
Abstract
Single-layer (barotropic) models have been commonly used in studies of the inverted barometer effect and the oceanic response to atmospheric pressure loading. The potential effects of stratification on this response are explored here using a general circulation model in a near-global domain with realistic coasts and bathymetry. Periodic forcing by the diurnal and semidiurnal atmospheric tides and 6-hourly stochastic forcing from weather center analyses are both examined. A global dynamic response (i.e., departures from inverted barometer behavior) is clear in the response to atmospheric tides; for stochastic forcing, the largest dynamic signals occur in shallow and semienclosed regions and at mid- and high latitudes. The influence of stratification in the dynamics is assessed by comparing surface and bottom pressure signals. Baroclinic effects are generally weak, particularly in the response to the large-scale atmospheric tides. Under stochastic forcing, largest differences between surface and bottom pressure signals reach 10%–20% of the surface signals and tend to occur in regions of enhanced topographic gradients. Bottom-intensified, localized interactions with topography seem to be involved. Enhanced baroclinicity is also seen at low latitudes, where stratification effects are also felt in the upper ocean. General implications for modeling the ocean response to high-frequency atmospheric and tidal forcing are discussed.
Abstract
The mass budget of the ocean in the period 1993–2003 is studied with a general circulation model. The model has a free surface and conserves mass rather than volume; that is, freshwater is exchanged with the atmosphere via precipitation and evaporation and inflow from land is taken into account. The mass is redistributed by the ocean circulation. Furthermore, the ocean’s volume changes by steric expansion with changing temperature and salinity. To estimate the mass changes, the ocean model is constrained by sea level measurements from the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon mission as well as by hydrographic data. The modeled ocean mass change within the years 2002–03 compares favorably to measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the evolution of the global mean sea level for the period 1993–2003 with annual and interannual variations can be reproduced to a 0.15-cm rms difference. Its trend has been measured as 3.37 mm yr−1 while the constrained model gives 3.34 mm yr−1 considering only the area covered by measurements (3.25 mm yr−1 for the total ocean). A steric rise of 2.50 mm yr−1 is estimated in this period, as is a gain in the ocean mass that is equivalent to an eustatic rise of 0.74 mm yr−1. The amplitude and phase (day of maximum value since 1 January) of the superimposed eustatic annual cycle are also estimated to be 4.6 mm and 278°, respectively. The corresponding values for the semiannual cycle are 0.42 mm and 120°. The trends in the eustatic sea level are not equally distributed. In the Atlantic Ocean (80°S–67°N) the eustatic sea level rises by 1.8 mm yr−1 and in the Indian Ocean (80°S–30°N) it rises by 1.4 mm yr−1, but it falls by −0.20 mm yr−1 in the Pacific Ocean (80°S–67°N). The latter is mainly caused by a loss of mass through transport divergence in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (−0.42 Sv; Sv ≡ 109 kg s−1) that is not balanced by the net surface water supply. The consequence of this uneven eustatic rise is a shift of the oceanic center of mass toward the Atlantic Ocean and to the north.
Abstract
The mass budget of the ocean in the period 1993–2003 is studied with a general circulation model. The model has a free surface and conserves mass rather than volume; that is, freshwater is exchanged with the atmosphere via precipitation and evaporation and inflow from land is taken into account. The mass is redistributed by the ocean circulation. Furthermore, the ocean’s volume changes by steric expansion with changing temperature and salinity. To estimate the mass changes, the ocean model is constrained by sea level measurements from the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon mission as well as by hydrographic data. The modeled ocean mass change within the years 2002–03 compares favorably to measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the evolution of the global mean sea level for the period 1993–2003 with annual and interannual variations can be reproduced to a 0.15-cm rms difference. Its trend has been measured as 3.37 mm yr−1 while the constrained model gives 3.34 mm yr−1 considering only the area covered by measurements (3.25 mm yr−1 for the total ocean). A steric rise of 2.50 mm yr−1 is estimated in this period, as is a gain in the ocean mass that is equivalent to an eustatic rise of 0.74 mm yr−1. The amplitude and phase (day of maximum value since 1 January) of the superimposed eustatic annual cycle are also estimated to be 4.6 mm and 278°, respectively. The corresponding values for the semiannual cycle are 0.42 mm and 120°. The trends in the eustatic sea level are not equally distributed. In the Atlantic Ocean (80°S–67°N) the eustatic sea level rises by 1.8 mm yr−1 and in the Indian Ocean (80°S–30°N) it rises by 1.4 mm yr−1, but it falls by −0.20 mm yr−1 in the Pacific Ocean (80°S–67°N). The latter is mainly caused by a loss of mass through transport divergence in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (−0.42 Sv; Sv ≡ 109 kg s−1) that is not balanced by the net surface water supply. The consequence of this uneven eustatic rise is a shift of the oceanic center of mass toward the Atlantic Ocean and to the north.
