Browse
Abstract
Analyses of the Northern Hemisphere’s sea level pressure, air surface temperature, and lower-stratospheric ozone during the period 1900–2019 reveal an existing coherence in their temporal variability. The coherence is heterogeneously distributed over the globe, and the patterns of ozone impact on the pressure and temperature are different. More specifically, the strongest ozone influence on the sea level pressure is found in the main “centers of action”—that is, the Aleutian low and the region of NAO formation. The ozone influence is localized mainly in the latitudinal belt 40°–75°N, where the ozone mixing ratio at 70 hPa is reduced during most of the twentieth century (relative to the first decade of the twenty-first century). This peculiarity of ozone spatial distribution we attribute to the energetic particles trapped in Earth’s radiation belts, activating ion-molecular reactions of ozone production in the region of Regener–Pfotzer ionization maximum. Consequently, the spatial–temporal variations of the lower-atmospheric ionization could be a good explanation for irregularly distributed ozone and its regionally specified impact on the climatic variables.
Significance Statement
We tried to understand the regional character of the Northern Hemisphere’s winter weather conditions. The latter is usually attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but we actually do not know the factors impacting the NAO variability itself. We found that, at multiannual time scales, the surface pressure is only weakly related to the temperature variations, whereas its correlation with the ozone at 70 hPa is unexpectedly strong—especially in the active regions of the weather phenomena formation. We attribute the ozone variability itself to the variable intensity of energetic particles precipitating in the lower atmosphere—where they activate ion-molecular reactions producing ozone. This finding opens new horizons for understanding the regionality of atmospheric variation at different time scales.
Abstract
Analyses of the Northern Hemisphere’s sea level pressure, air surface temperature, and lower-stratospheric ozone during the period 1900–2019 reveal an existing coherence in their temporal variability. The coherence is heterogeneously distributed over the globe, and the patterns of ozone impact on the pressure and temperature are different. More specifically, the strongest ozone influence on the sea level pressure is found in the main “centers of action”—that is, the Aleutian low and the region of NAO formation. The ozone influence is localized mainly in the latitudinal belt 40°–75°N, where the ozone mixing ratio at 70 hPa is reduced during most of the twentieth century (relative to the first decade of the twenty-first century). This peculiarity of ozone spatial distribution we attribute to the energetic particles trapped in Earth’s radiation belts, activating ion-molecular reactions of ozone production in the region of Regener–Pfotzer ionization maximum. Consequently, the spatial–temporal variations of the lower-atmospheric ionization could be a good explanation for irregularly distributed ozone and its regionally specified impact on the climatic variables.
Significance Statement
We tried to understand the regional character of the Northern Hemisphere’s winter weather conditions. The latter is usually attributed to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but we actually do not know the factors impacting the NAO variability itself. We found that, at multiannual time scales, the surface pressure is only weakly related to the temperature variations, whereas its correlation with the ozone at 70 hPa is unexpectedly strong—especially in the active regions of the weather phenomena formation. We attribute the ozone variability itself to the variable intensity of energetic particles precipitating in the lower atmosphere—where they activate ion-molecular reactions producing ozone. This finding opens new horizons for understanding the regionality of atmospheric variation at different time scales.
Abstract
We explore the possible role of plant–atmosphere feedbacks in accelerating forest expansion using a simple example of forest establishment. We use an unconventional experimental design to simulate an initial forest establishment and the subsequent response of climate and nearby vegetation. We find that the forest’s existence produces favorable nearby growing-season conditions that would promote forest expansion. Specifically, we consider a hypothetical region of forest expansion in modern Alaska. We find that the forest acts as a source of heat and moisture for plants to the west, leading them to experience earlier springtime temperatures, snowmelt, and growth. Summertime cooling and cloud formation over the forest also drive a circulation change that reduces summertime cloud cover south of the forest, increasing solar radiation reaching plants there and driving warming. By isolating these vegetation–atmosphere interactions as the mechanisms of increased growth, we demonstrate the potential for forest expansion to be accelerated in a way that has not been highlighted before. These simulations illuminate two separate mechanisms that lead to increased plant growth nearby: 1) springtime heat advection and 2) summertime cloud feedbacks and circulation changes; both have implications for our understanding of past changes in forest cover and the predictability of biophysical impacts from afforestation projects and climate change–driven forest-cover changes. By examining these feedbacks, we seek to gain a more comprehensive understanding of past and potential future land–atmosphere interactions.
Significance Statement
This study investigates whether the emergence of a high-latitude forest could influence the way water and energy are exchanged between the land and atmosphere in a way that impacts nearby growing conditions and subsequent forest expansion. We use a computer model to simulate a climate with and without forest establishment in the high latitudes and test the response of plants surrounding the forest to the two different climates. We find that a forest is indeed able to spur neighboring plant growth by modifying regional climate and producing more favorable growing conditions for surrounding vegetation. Specifically, forest establishment can bring better growing conditions to plants adjacent to it by warming the air and altering nearby circulation and cloud cover.
Abstract
We explore the possible role of plant–atmosphere feedbacks in accelerating forest expansion using a simple example of forest establishment. We use an unconventional experimental design to simulate an initial forest establishment and the subsequent response of climate and nearby vegetation. We find that the forest’s existence produces favorable nearby growing-season conditions that would promote forest expansion. Specifically, we consider a hypothetical region of forest expansion in modern Alaska. We find that the forest acts as a source of heat and moisture for plants to the west, leading them to experience earlier springtime temperatures, snowmelt, and growth. Summertime cooling and cloud formation over the forest also drive a circulation change that reduces summertime cloud cover south of the forest, increasing solar radiation reaching plants there and driving warming. By isolating these vegetation–atmosphere interactions as the mechanisms of increased growth, we demonstrate the potential for forest expansion to be accelerated in a way that has not been highlighted before. These simulations illuminate two separate mechanisms that lead to increased plant growth nearby: 1) springtime heat advection and 2) summertime cloud feedbacks and circulation changes; both have implications for our understanding of past changes in forest cover and the predictability of biophysical impacts from afforestation projects and climate change–driven forest-cover changes. By examining these feedbacks, we seek to gain a more comprehensive understanding of past and potential future land–atmosphere interactions.
Significance Statement
This study investigates whether the emergence of a high-latitude forest could influence the way water and energy are exchanged between the land and atmosphere in a way that impacts nearby growing conditions and subsequent forest expansion. We use a computer model to simulate a climate with and without forest establishment in the high latitudes and test the response of plants surrounding the forest to the two different climates. We find that a forest is indeed able to spur neighboring plant growth by modifying regional climate and producing more favorable growing conditions for surrounding vegetation. Specifically, forest establishment can bring better growing conditions to plants adjacent to it by warming the air and altering nearby circulation and cloud cover.
Abstract
The moderating influence of irrigation on dry heat extremes is well established, but the effect of irrigation on humid heat is more uncertain. Here, we study the impact of modern irrigation on both dry and humid heat-wave occurrences during the boreal summer using the NASA GISS Earth System Model (ModelE) with and without present-day irrigation. We show that the presence of modern irrigation reduces the total number of dry heat waves in most land areas, especially in arid and temperate regions. In contrast, humid heat waves occur more frequently under modern irrigation, especially in the Mediterranean Sea region, northern Africa, southern Africa, and the Middle East. Present-day irrigation reduces dry heat extremes by favoring latent heating over sensible heating and lowering surface solar radiation by increasing total cloud cover. Meanwhile, modern irrigation drives increases in humid heat through increases in specific humidity and precipitation. Notably, the reduction in dry heat is mostly localized over irrigated grid cells while humid heat increases both in locally irrigated areas and remote (nonirrigated) regions because of widespread increases in humidity associated with irrigation. Our results suggest that irrigation may amplify humid heat, even in nonirrigated areas, highlighting the importance of improving our understanding of both local and remote effects of the irrigation forcing on climate hazards.
Abstract
The moderating influence of irrigation on dry heat extremes is well established, but the effect of irrigation on humid heat is more uncertain. Here, we study the impact of modern irrigation on both dry and humid heat-wave occurrences during the boreal summer using the NASA GISS Earth System Model (ModelE) with and without present-day irrigation. We show that the presence of modern irrigation reduces the total number of dry heat waves in most land areas, especially in arid and temperate regions. In contrast, humid heat waves occur more frequently under modern irrigation, especially in the Mediterranean Sea region, northern Africa, southern Africa, and the Middle East. Present-day irrigation reduces dry heat extremes by favoring latent heating over sensible heating and lowering surface solar radiation by increasing total cloud cover. Meanwhile, modern irrigation drives increases in humid heat through increases in specific humidity and precipitation. Notably, the reduction in dry heat is mostly localized over irrigated grid cells while humid heat increases both in locally irrigated areas and remote (nonirrigated) regions because of widespread increases in humidity associated with irrigation. Our results suggest that irrigation may amplify humid heat, even in nonirrigated areas, highlighting the importance of improving our understanding of both local and remote effects of the irrigation forcing on climate hazards.
Abstract
The pan-African Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel initiative (GGW) is a reforestation program to reverse the degradation of land. We investigate characteristics of mean precipitation due to proposed land-use changes to woody savannah with three hypothetical courses of the GGW, with an area between 0.8 and 1.25 million km2, and between the 100- and 400-mm isohyets. The global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) was applied for this investigation, employing ensembles with 40 members for the rainy season from June to September and 50 members for August when precipitation is at its peak. In comparison with the observational reference, the results show that a wet bias on the order of 33% in the eastern Sahel and a moderate dry bias of −41% in the western Sahel are present in the MPAS simulations. Our simulations do not provide any significant evidence for GGW-induced changes in the characteristics of the summer precipitation, for positive changes within the Sahel supporting the forestation activities, or for potentially adverse changes in the neighboring regions. Changes are present at the regional scale, but they are not significant at the 5% level. Also, changes simulated for further hydrometeorological variables such as temperature, radiation fluxes, or runoff are comparatively small.
Abstract
The pan-African Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel initiative (GGW) is a reforestation program to reverse the degradation of land. We investigate characteristics of mean precipitation due to proposed land-use changes to woody savannah with three hypothetical courses of the GGW, with an area between 0.8 and 1.25 million km2, and between the 100- and 400-mm isohyets. The global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) was applied for this investigation, employing ensembles with 40 members for the rainy season from June to September and 50 members for August when precipitation is at its peak. In comparison with the observational reference, the results show that a wet bias on the order of 33% in the eastern Sahel and a moderate dry bias of −41% in the western Sahel are present in the MPAS simulations. Our simulations do not provide any significant evidence for GGW-induced changes in the characteristics of the summer precipitation, for positive changes within the Sahel supporting the forestation activities, or for potentially adverse changes in the neighboring regions. Changes are present at the regional scale, but they are not significant at the 5% level. Also, changes simulated for further hydrometeorological variables such as temperature, radiation fluxes, or runoff are comparatively small.
Abstract
Drought is a recurrent natural phenomenon, but there is concern that climate change may increase the frequency or severity of drought in Alaska. Because most common drought indices were designed for lower latitudes, it is unclear how effectively they characterize drought in Alaska’s diverse, high-latitude climates. Here, we compare three commonly used meteorological drought indices [the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI)] with each other and with streamflow across Alaska’s 13 climate divisions. All of the drought indices identify major droughts, but the severity of the drought varies depending on the index used. The SPI and the SPEI are more flexible and often better correlated with streamflow than the scPDSI, and we recommend using them. Although SPI and SPEI are very similar in energy-limited climates, the drought metrics do diverge in drier locations in recent years, and consideration of the impact of temperature on drought may grow more important in the coming decades. Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates appeared more physically realistic than the more commonly used Thornthwaite equation and are equally easy to calculate, so we suggest using the Hargreaves equation when PET is estimated from temperature. This study, one of the first to evaluate drought indices for high-latitude regions, has the potential to improve drought monitoring and representation within the U.S. Drought Monitor, leading to more informed decision-making during drought in Alaska, and it improves our ability to track changes in drought driven by rising temperatures.
Significance Statement
Tracking drought at high latitudes is challenging because we have not adequately studied drought impacts in cold climates, and the primary meteorological drought indices were designed for lower latitudes and may not accurately estimate evaporative demand and the influence of snow. We investigate three common drought indices and recommend using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) or the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) because they can track short and long droughts. The SPEI may be more useful because comparisons between the SPI and SPEI show that, in recent decades, temperature has made noticeable contributions to drought in drier parts of Alaska. If using the SPEI, we suggest the Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration rather than the Thornthwaite because it is more physically realistic.
Abstract
Drought is a recurrent natural phenomenon, but there is concern that climate change may increase the frequency or severity of drought in Alaska. Because most common drought indices were designed for lower latitudes, it is unclear how effectively they characterize drought in Alaska’s diverse, high-latitude climates. Here, we compare three commonly used meteorological drought indices [the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI)] with each other and with streamflow across Alaska’s 13 climate divisions. All of the drought indices identify major droughts, but the severity of the drought varies depending on the index used. The SPI and the SPEI are more flexible and often better correlated with streamflow than the scPDSI, and we recommend using them. Although SPI and SPEI are very similar in energy-limited climates, the drought metrics do diverge in drier locations in recent years, and consideration of the impact of temperature on drought may grow more important in the coming decades. Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates appeared more physically realistic than the more commonly used Thornthwaite equation and are equally easy to calculate, so we suggest using the Hargreaves equation when PET is estimated from temperature. This study, one of the first to evaluate drought indices for high-latitude regions, has the potential to improve drought monitoring and representation within the U.S. Drought Monitor, leading to more informed decision-making during drought in Alaska, and it improves our ability to track changes in drought driven by rising temperatures.
Significance Statement
Tracking drought at high latitudes is challenging because we have not adequately studied drought impacts in cold climates, and the primary meteorological drought indices were designed for lower latitudes and may not accurately estimate evaporative demand and the influence of snow. We investigate three common drought indices and recommend using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) or the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) because they can track short and long droughts. The SPEI may be more useful because comparisons between the SPI and SPEI show that, in recent decades, temperature has made noticeable contributions to drought in drier parts of Alaska. If using the SPEI, we suggest the Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration rather than the Thornthwaite because it is more physically realistic.
Abstract
Strategies that demonstrate renewed potential to enhance both social and ecological systems are crucial in today’s era of rapid urbanization. However, the approaches used to understand the impacts of such strategies sometimes favor social over environmental theory, or the opposite, but do not always consider both equally. Our study addresses this disconnect by exploring the role of urban agriculture (UA) as an alleviation and land management strategy in Mexico City (MC), Mexico. Our integrated design combined the ecosystem services framework, which was primarily used to assess material and nonmaterial benefits MC residents obtain from UA spaces and its associated vegetation, and the livelihoods framework, which was used to evaluate the relationship between UA and societal impacts. We used a mixed-method approach to quantify the amount of food produced, assess crop diversity, assess six distinct ecological processes linked to UA, identify cultural benefits, and conduct an evaluation of contributions to livelihood capitals. Our study documented the role of UA in supporting ecological processes, connecting humans to nature, and providing a supplemental source of income. However, a multitude of unintended outcomes are identified, such as trade-offs between different ecological processes, constraints in promoting formal education beyond agroecological knowledge, and an inability to fully elevate families out of poverty. Our integrated approach demonstrated how the ecosystem services and livelihoods frameworks can be used simultaneously to provide thorough assessments of socioecological systems, identifying outcomes that could go unnoticed without an interdisciplinary lens.
Abstract
Strategies that demonstrate renewed potential to enhance both social and ecological systems are crucial in today’s era of rapid urbanization. However, the approaches used to understand the impacts of such strategies sometimes favor social over environmental theory, or the opposite, but do not always consider both equally. Our study addresses this disconnect by exploring the role of urban agriculture (UA) as an alleviation and land management strategy in Mexico City (MC), Mexico. Our integrated design combined the ecosystem services framework, which was primarily used to assess material and nonmaterial benefits MC residents obtain from UA spaces and its associated vegetation, and the livelihoods framework, which was used to evaluate the relationship between UA and societal impacts. We used a mixed-method approach to quantify the amount of food produced, assess crop diversity, assess six distinct ecological processes linked to UA, identify cultural benefits, and conduct an evaluation of contributions to livelihood capitals. Our study documented the role of UA in supporting ecological processes, connecting humans to nature, and providing a supplemental source of income. However, a multitude of unintended outcomes are identified, such as trade-offs between different ecological processes, constraints in promoting formal education beyond agroecological knowledge, and an inability to fully elevate families out of poverty. Our integrated approach demonstrated how the ecosystem services and livelihoods frameworks can be used simultaneously to provide thorough assessments of socioecological systems, identifying outcomes that could go unnoticed without an interdisciplinary lens.
Abstract
The Congo Basin is severely understudied compared to other tropical regions; this is partly due to the lack of meteorological stations and the ubiquitous cloudiness hampering the use of remote sensing products. Clustering of small-scale agricultural deforestation events within the basin may result in deforestation on scales that are atmospherically important. This study uses 500-m MODIS data and the Global Forest Change dataset (GFC) to detect deforestation at a monthly and subkilometer scale and to quantify how deforestation impacts vegetation proxies (VPs) within the basin, the time scales over which these changes persist, and how they are affected by the deforestation driver. Missing MODIS data meant that a new method, based on two-date image differencing, was developed to detect deforestation on a monthly scale. Evaluation against the yearly GFC data shows that the highest detection rate was 79% for clearing sizes larger than 500 m2. Recovery to predeforestation levels occurred faster than expected; analysis of postdeforestation evolution of the VPs found 66% of locations recovered within a year. Separation by land-cover type also showed unexpected regrowth, as over 50% of rural complex and plantation land recovered within a year. The fallow period in the study region was typically short; by the sixth year after the initial deforestation event, ∼88% of the locations underwent a further considerable drop. These results show the importance of fine spatial and temporal information to assess Congo Basin deforestation and highlight the large differences in the impacts of land-use change compared to other rain forests.
Abstract
The Congo Basin is severely understudied compared to other tropical regions; this is partly due to the lack of meteorological stations and the ubiquitous cloudiness hampering the use of remote sensing products. Clustering of small-scale agricultural deforestation events within the basin may result in deforestation on scales that are atmospherically important. This study uses 500-m MODIS data and the Global Forest Change dataset (GFC) to detect deforestation at a monthly and subkilometer scale and to quantify how deforestation impacts vegetation proxies (VPs) within the basin, the time scales over which these changes persist, and how they are affected by the deforestation driver. Missing MODIS data meant that a new method, based on two-date image differencing, was developed to detect deforestation on a monthly scale. Evaluation against the yearly GFC data shows that the highest detection rate was 79% for clearing sizes larger than 500 m2. Recovery to predeforestation levels occurred faster than expected; analysis of postdeforestation evolution of the VPs found 66% of locations recovered within a year. Separation by land-cover type also showed unexpected regrowth, as over 50% of rural complex and plantation land recovered within a year. The fallow period in the study region was typically short; by the sixth year after the initial deforestation event, ∼88% of the locations underwent a further considerable drop. These results show the importance of fine spatial and temporal information to assess Congo Basin deforestation and highlight the large differences in the impacts of land-use change compared to other rain forests.
Abstract
Riverine ecosystems are dependent in large part on the climate of the region, and climate change is expected to alter climatic factors of interest, such as precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration. In central Texas, precipitation is expected to decrease while temperature increases as the climate changes. Drought and flooding events are also expected to increase in the region, which will also affect streamflow and stream temperature in riverine ecosystems. Numerous studies have assessed the potential impacts of climate change on riverine species. This study examines the projected climate changes, determines potential changes in streamflow and stream temperature for river basins in central Texas, and assesses the appropriate uses of climate projections for riverine species impact assessments, using the Texas fatmucket (Lampsilis bracteata) as a case study. Previously established regression methods were used to produce projections of streamflow and stream temperature. This study finds that streamflow is projected to decrease and stream temperature is projected to increase. Using thermal tolerance thresholds previously determined for the Lampsilis bracteata, this study also finds that the lethal temperature events for the Lampsilis bracteata will increase. This study makes several recommendations on the use of downscaled climate projections for impact assessments for riverine species such as the Lampsilis bracteata.
Abstract
Riverine ecosystems are dependent in large part on the climate of the region, and climate change is expected to alter climatic factors of interest, such as precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration. In central Texas, precipitation is expected to decrease while temperature increases as the climate changes. Drought and flooding events are also expected to increase in the region, which will also affect streamflow and stream temperature in riverine ecosystems. Numerous studies have assessed the potential impacts of climate change on riverine species. This study examines the projected climate changes, determines potential changes in streamflow and stream temperature for river basins in central Texas, and assesses the appropriate uses of climate projections for riverine species impact assessments, using the Texas fatmucket (Lampsilis bracteata) as a case study. Previously established regression methods were used to produce projections of streamflow and stream temperature. This study finds that streamflow is projected to decrease and stream temperature is projected to increase. Using thermal tolerance thresholds previously determined for the Lampsilis bracteata, this study also finds that the lethal temperature events for the Lampsilis bracteata will increase. This study makes several recommendations on the use of downscaled climate projections for impact assessments for riverine species such as the Lampsilis bracteata.
