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Abstract
Rip currents are poorly understood by the public and thus a leading cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. Individuals who speak languages other than English, such as Spanish-speaking communities, have been historically underserved by communication efforts for natural hazards and thus are at additional risk from rip currents. In response, the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed rip current outreach tools translated into Spanish in recent years, though their efficacy has not been systematically tested. We therefore surveyed members of the Spanish-speaking community in the New York City area to gain insights into how the NWS two-page rip current informational brochure is working and possible improvements to be made. The English version of the brochure was also tested, and the results from the two languages were compared. Quantitative survey results indicate that while both brochures are generally effective, several changes could be made to improve clarity, especially for Spanish speakers, who found more issues with the Spanish version. For example, the translation of the term rip current itself used by the NWS, “corrientes de resaca,” was determined to be confusing by some Spanish speakers, as were other pieces of text with complex scientific terms. Moreover, certain graphics contained in the brochure were difficult to understand for users in both languages. The results of this work can be used by the NWS and other agencies to improve their Spanish risk communication tools and can also be used as a guide when translating scientific information into other languages.
Significance Statement
Rip currents, narrow channels of fast-moving water that can pull swimmers away from the shore, are among the leading weather-related killers in the United States yet are poorly understood by the public. Recent efforts to reduce society’s vulnerability to rip currents include the translation of outreach materials from English to Spanish. This study evaluated a new National Weather Service Spanish rip current informational brochure and compared it to the English version. The results show that while both the English and Spanish brochures were generally effective at communicating risk, the Spanish version had more issues, primarily surrounding the translation of scientific terms and phrases. Findings from this research can help guide scientists in designing improved non-English severe weather outreach products.
Abstract
Rip currents are poorly understood by the public and thus a leading cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. Individuals who speak languages other than English, such as Spanish-speaking communities, have been historically underserved by communication efforts for natural hazards and thus are at additional risk from rip currents. In response, the National Weather Service (NWS) has developed rip current outreach tools translated into Spanish in recent years, though their efficacy has not been systematically tested. We therefore surveyed members of the Spanish-speaking community in the New York City area to gain insights into how the NWS two-page rip current informational brochure is working and possible improvements to be made. The English version of the brochure was also tested, and the results from the two languages were compared. Quantitative survey results indicate that while both brochures are generally effective, several changes could be made to improve clarity, especially for Spanish speakers, who found more issues with the Spanish version. For example, the translation of the term rip current itself used by the NWS, “corrientes de resaca,” was determined to be confusing by some Spanish speakers, as were other pieces of text with complex scientific terms. Moreover, certain graphics contained in the brochure were difficult to understand for users in both languages. The results of this work can be used by the NWS and other agencies to improve their Spanish risk communication tools and can also be used as a guide when translating scientific information into other languages.
Significance Statement
Rip currents, narrow channels of fast-moving water that can pull swimmers away from the shore, are among the leading weather-related killers in the United States yet are poorly understood by the public. Recent efforts to reduce society’s vulnerability to rip currents include the translation of outreach materials from English to Spanish. This study evaluated a new National Weather Service Spanish rip current informational brochure and compared it to the English version. The results show that while both the English and Spanish brochures were generally effective at communicating risk, the Spanish version had more issues, primarily surrounding the translation of scientific terms and phrases. Findings from this research can help guide scientists in designing improved non-English severe weather outreach products.
Abstract
Navigating the Great Lakes during icy conditions poses significant safety challenges for the shipping sector. Available ice information is uncertain and fragmented, and navigators must seek out multiple sources for information at the spatial and temporal scales they require, if the information is available at all. Navigators have expressed that they require more highly localized and easily usable information for current and predicted ice conditions to support decision-making. In this study, we seek to meet this information need by applying a boundary organizations chain (BOC) approach to facilitate the co-production of an actionable short-term Great Lakes ice forecast. We focus on two main aspects of this research: 1) producing an actionable decision-support product that meets the needs of Great Lakes ice navigators, and 2) contributing to the knowledge co-production scholarship on BOCs by providing a detailed account of our methods to create a BOC and co-produce an actionable ice forecast. Our results support incorporating existing communities of practice (COPs) into BOCs to enhance the co-production of actionable knowledge, specifically through increasing their complementarity and embeddedness. COPs are informal networks of users that meet voluntarily to share knowledge and develop professional skills, which we found naturally builds the co-production capacities of participants (e.g. embeddedness and complementarity). We also find that COP members are well positioned to disseminate co-produced knowledge across wider user groups.
Abstract
Navigating the Great Lakes during icy conditions poses significant safety challenges for the shipping sector. Available ice information is uncertain and fragmented, and navigators must seek out multiple sources for information at the spatial and temporal scales they require, if the information is available at all. Navigators have expressed that they require more highly localized and easily usable information for current and predicted ice conditions to support decision-making. In this study, we seek to meet this information need by applying a boundary organizations chain (BOC) approach to facilitate the co-production of an actionable short-term Great Lakes ice forecast. We focus on two main aspects of this research: 1) producing an actionable decision-support product that meets the needs of Great Lakes ice navigators, and 2) contributing to the knowledge co-production scholarship on BOCs by providing a detailed account of our methods to create a BOC and co-produce an actionable ice forecast. Our results support incorporating existing communities of practice (COPs) into BOCs to enhance the co-production of actionable knowledge, specifically through increasing their complementarity and embeddedness. COPs are informal networks of users that meet voluntarily to share knowledge and develop professional skills, which we found naturally builds the co-production capacities of participants (e.g. embeddedness and complementarity). We also find that COP members are well positioned to disseminate co-produced knowledge across wider user groups.
Abstract
Lightning around the world poses a significant threat to life, infrastructure, and economic sectors. This study evaluates lightning risk at the municipal level in Mexico, recognizing the interplay of hazard and vulnerability in risk estimation. Despite declining lightning-related fatalities, possibly attributed to demographic shifts and improved urban infrastructure, persistent social vulnerability exists, particularly among rural populations engaged in labor-intensive agriculture with lower education levels. We estimate a risk map for lightning-related fatality risk in Mexico, where we identify high-risk regions along the Sierra Madre Occidental, the Pacific coast, and central and southeastern Mexico, marked by elevated lightning days and social vulnerability. The risk map integrates hazard and social vulnerability, capturing the distribution of fatality incidents, and it reveals that 82.1% of incidents occurred in municipalities categorized as “high” or “very high” risk. This result emphasizes the need to consider both physical hazard and social vulnerability for a comprehensive assessment of lightning risk. This study contributes to understanding lightning risk in Mexico, providing crucial insights at the municipality level for informing policymaking and targeting risk mitigation strategies. By highlighting the interrelation of hazard and social vulnerability, this research aligns with broader goals of enhancing local resilience and safety in the face of natural hazards, highlighting the ongoing need for disaster risk reduction efforts.
Significance Statement
This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of death by lightning at the municipality level in Mexico, considering the intricate interplay between hazard and social vulnerability. By analyzing both the physical hazard of lightning and the social vulnerability of exposed populations, the study provides a map estimating the risk level for each municipality. The risk map, capturing the interrelation of hazard and vulnerability, provides a powerful tool for policymakers and emergency responders. With 82.1% of lightning fatalities concentrated in municipalities with “high” and “very high” risk, this work underscores the need for comprehensive risk assessment strategies. This research contributes knowledge for informed decision-making, targeted interventions, and the ongoing pursuit of enhancing community resilience to lightning-related hazards.
Abstract
Lightning around the world poses a significant threat to life, infrastructure, and economic sectors. This study evaluates lightning risk at the municipal level in Mexico, recognizing the interplay of hazard and vulnerability in risk estimation. Despite declining lightning-related fatalities, possibly attributed to demographic shifts and improved urban infrastructure, persistent social vulnerability exists, particularly among rural populations engaged in labor-intensive agriculture with lower education levels. We estimate a risk map for lightning-related fatality risk in Mexico, where we identify high-risk regions along the Sierra Madre Occidental, the Pacific coast, and central and southeastern Mexico, marked by elevated lightning days and social vulnerability. The risk map integrates hazard and social vulnerability, capturing the distribution of fatality incidents, and it reveals that 82.1% of incidents occurred in municipalities categorized as “high” or “very high” risk. This result emphasizes the need to consider both physical hazard and social vulnerability for a comprehensive assessment of lightning risk. This study contributes to understanding lightning risk in Mexico, providing crucial insights at the municipality level for informing policymaking and targeting risk mitigation strategies. By highlighting the interrelation of hazard and social vulnerability, this research aligns with broader goals of enhancing local resilience and safety in the face of natural hazards, highlighting the ongoing need for disaster risk reduction efforts.
Significance Statement
This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of death by lightning at the municipality level in Mexico, considering the intricate interplay between hazard and social vulnerability. By analyzing both the physical hazard of lightning and the social vulnerability of exposed populations, the study provides a map estimating the risk level for each municipality. The risk map, capturing the interrelation of hazard and vulnerability, provides a powerful tool for policymakers and emergency responders. With 82.1% of lightning fatalities concentrated in municipalities with “high” and “very high” risk, this work underscores the need for comprehensive risk assessment strategies. This research contributes knowledge for informed decision-making, targeted interventions, and the ongoing pursuit of enhancing community resilience to lightning-related hazards.
Abstract
This study explores the correlation between weather and the perception of urban cleanliness across the 47 largest cities in Spain. Utilizing survey data conducted by the national Consumers and Users Organization (OCU) in 2015, 2019, and 2023 to assess cleanliness perceptions, we analyze potential associations with precipitation and temperature recorded by weather stations of the Spanish Meteorological Agency. Additionally, we consider computed values of the De Martonne aridity index. The OCU data reveal regional disparities in perceived cleanliness quality. Higher cleanliness scores are obtained in cities located in the northern and north-central regions of Spain, characterized by humid and superhumid climates according to the De Martonne index. Conversely, lower cleanliness ratings are given to cities in the southern and eastern regions of Spain, where a Mediterranean climate and lower aridity index values prevail. In conducting a statistical analysis on the perception of cleanliness and variables related to precipitation and temperature, the results of the chi-square and linear correlation tests found no strong statistical correlation, although a tendency is observed. Cities with higher annual precipitation and lower values of average annual temperature tend to receive better cleanliness ratings, while drier and warmer cities exhibit the worst values of perceived urban cleanliness. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the Gompertz model effectively captures a strong statistical correlation in the relationship between cleanliness perception and the De Martonne index: As aridity increases, cleanliness perception decreases. These results are relevant for the development of future cleaning methods and systems, particularly in light of the climate change scenarios that are anticipated in the Mediterranean region due to warmer and drier conditions and, consequently, an increase in aridity.
Abstract
This study explores the correlation between weather and the perception of urban cleanliness across the 47 largest cities in Spain. Utilizing survey data conducted by the national Consumers and Users Organization (OCU) in 2015, 2019, and 2023 to assess cleanliness perceptions, we analyze potential associations with precipitation and temperature recorded by weather stations of the Spanish Meteorological Agency. Additionally, we consider computed values of the De Martonne aridity index. The OCU data reveal regional disparities in perceived cleanliness quality. Higher cleanliness scores are obtained in cities located in the northern and north-central regions of Spain, characterized by humid and superhumid climates according to the De Martonne index. Conversely, lower cleanliness ratings are given to cities in the southern and eastern regions of Spain, where a Mediterranean climate and lower aridity index values prevail. In conducting a statistical analysis on the perception of cleanliness and variables related to precipitation and temperature, the results of the chi-square and linear correlation tests found no strong statistical correlation, although a tendency is observed. Cities with higher annual precipitation and lower values of average annual temperature tend to receive better cleanliness ratings, while drier and warmer cities exhibit the worst values of perceived urban cleanliness. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the Gompertz model effectively captures a strong statistical correlation in the relationship between cleanliness perception and the De Martonne index: As aridity increases, cleanliness perception decreases. These results are relevant for the development of future cleaning methods and systems, particularly in light of the climate change scenarios that are anticipated in the Mediterranean region due to warmer and drier conditions and, consequently, an increase in aridity.
Abstract
Extreme weather, including heat waves, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and human health. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of heat waves will increase. Because of this, communicating heat-related risks to the public is increasingly important. One commonly used communication tool is the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which establishes how much more likely an extreme weather event, such as a heat wave, has been made by climate change. To test the impact of the CSI on people’s understanding of the links between climate change and extreme weather, we conducted an experiment informing 3902 American adults that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave in the United States at least 5 times more likely. In addition to this standard CSI wording and two control messages, we also explored the effectiveness of reframing magnitude as a percentage and whether mechanistic and attribution explanations of the relationship between climate change and heat waves further increase understanding. All treatments increased the belief that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely and is making heat waves in general more likely as well. Additionally, we found that expressing the magnitude as a percentage was more effective than the standard CSI framing. We also found that just talking about the heat wave, without mentioning climate change, was enough to change beliefs.
Abstract
Extreme weather, including heat waves, poses a significant threat to ecosystems and human health. As global temperatures continue to rise, the frequency and severity of heat waves will increase. Because of this, communicating heat-related risks to the public is increasingly important. One commonly used communication tool is the Climate Shift Index (CSI), which establishes how much more likely an extreme weather event, such as a heat wave, has been made by climate change. To test the impact of the CSI on people’s understanding of the links between climate change and extreme weather, we conducted an experiment informing 3902 American adults that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave in the United States at least 5 times more likely. In addition to this standard CSI wording and two control messages, we also explored the effectiveness of reframing magnitude as a percentage and whether mechanistic and attribution explanations of the relationship between climate change and heat waves further increase understanding. All treatments increased the belief that climate change made the July 2023 heat wave more likely and is making heat waves in general more likely as well. Additionally, we found that expressing the magnitude as a percentage was more effective than the standard CSI framing. We also found that just talking about the heat wave, without mentioning climate change, was enough to change beliefs.
Abstract
This paper analyzes findings from semistructured interviews and focus groups with 31 farmers in the Willamette Valley in which farmers were asked about their needs for climate data and about the usability of a range of outputs from the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), for their soil management practices. Findings indicate that climate and soils data generated from CESM and other Earth system models (ESMs), despite their coarse spatial scale resolutions, can inform farmers’ long-term decisions, but that the data would be more usable if the outputs were provided in a format that allowed farmers to choose the variables and thresholds relevant to their particular needs and if ESMs incorporated farmer practices including residue removal, cover cropping, and tillage levels into the model operations so that farmers could better understand the impacts of their decisions. Findings also suggest that although there is a significant gap in the spatial resolution at which these global ESMs generate data and the spatial resolution needed by farmers to make most decisions, farmers are adept at making scalar adjustments to apply coarse-resolution data to the specifics of their own farm’s microclimate. Thus, our findings suggest that, to support agricultural decision-making, development priorities for ESMs should include developing better representations of agricultural management practices within the models and creating interactive data dashboards or platforms.
Abstract
This paper analyzes findings from semistructured interviews and focus groups with 31 farmers in the Willamette Valley in which farmers were asked about their needs for climate data and about the usability of a range of outputs from the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), for their soil management practices. Findings indicate that climate and soils data generated from CESM and other Earth system models (ESMs), despite their coarse spatial scale resolutions, can inform farmers’ long-term decisions, but that the data would be more usable if the outputs were provided in a format that allowed farmers to choose the variables and thresholds relevant to their particular needs and if ESMs incorporated farmer practices including residue removal, cover cropping, and tillage levels into the model operations so that farmers could better understand the impacts of their decisions. Findings also suggest that although there is a significant gap in the spatial resolution at which these global ESMs generate data and the spatial resolution needed by farmers to make most decisions, farmers are adept at making scalar adjustments to apply coarse-resolution data to the specifics of their own farm’s microclimate. Thus, our findings suggest that, to support agricultural decision-making, development priorities for ESMs should include developing better representations of agricultural management practices within the models and creating interactive data dashboards or platforms.
Abstract
A violent tornado occurred in Czechia on 24 June 2021, killing six and causing at least 576 injuries. There were more indirect than direct injuries. The tornado was rated 4 on the international Fujita scale (IF4) using a draft version of the IF scale. This was the first violent tornado in Czechia and one of only 17 violent, i.e., (I)F4 or higher, tornadoes that occurred in Europe since 1950. The tornado reached a width of 3.5 km, the widest on record in Europe. The case presents an important opportunity to investigate the impacts of such a strong tornado in the area, where they are rare, no tornado warnings are issued, and where the building standards are different from the typically investigated tornadoes in the United States. We discuss challenges in organizing the damage survey, which took 3 days and involved meteorologists from three countries. A wind damage survey guide to aid mitigating these was written by the European Severe Storms Laboratory and initiated the development of a wind damage surveying app. The damage survey showed that most of the inhabited buildings built using heavy masonry and rigid ceilings did not collapse in IF2/3 winds, but only with IF4 winds. Eyewitness reports collected after the tornado show that many people were not aware of the risk associated with the tornado. Eventually, most people tried to shelter in the most secure part of the house, but it was often too late. This case highlights the need for better communication of tornado risk to the public in Europe.
Abstract
A violent tornado occurred in Czechia on 24 June 2021, killing six and causing at least 576 injuries. There were more indirect than direct injuries. The tornado was rated 4 on the international Fujita scale (IF4) using a draft version of the IF scale. This was the first violent tornado in Czechia and one of only 17 violent, i.e., (I)F4 or higher, tornadoes that occurred in Europe since 1950. The tornado reached a width of 3.5 km, the widest on record in Europe. The case presents an important opportunity to investigate the impacts of such a strong tornado in the area, where they are rare, no tornado warnings are issued, and where the building standards are different from the typically investigated tornadoes in the United States. We discuss challenges in organizing the damage survey, which took 3 days and involved meteorologists from three countries. A wind damage survey guide to aid mitigating these was written by the European Severe Storms Laboratory and initiated the development of a wind damage surveying app. The damage survey showed that most of the inhabited buildings built using heavy masonry and rigid ceilings did not collapse in IF2/3 winds, but only with IF4 winds. Eyewitness reports collected after the tornado show that many people were not aware of the risk associated with the tornado. Eventually, most people tried to shelter in the most secure part of the house, but it was often too late. This case highlights the need for better communication of tornado risk to the public in Europe.
